Insurgency: Strategic Victory and Looming Collapse of NPA

It's finally happened! The Philippines has defeated the NPA. The AFP has gotten the victory! Strategically that is.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1184813

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said Wednesday it has attained strategic victory over the threats posed by the communist movement and other local terrorist groups (LTGs) operating in the country.

Department of National Defense (DND) officer-in-charge Undersecretary Jose Faustino Jr. made this statement after the AFP reported more than 75 percent of the communist fronts in the country have been dismantled nationwide.

"Out of 89 in July 2016, there are only five active guerilla fronts remaining,” he said in a statement.

He added that the capabilities of the communist rebels and LTGs have been significantly diminished over the last few years.

"The concerted efforts of the security sector have drawn us even closer to the end of the armed conflict with the inevitable collapse of these armed groups,” the DND chief said.

As of Sept. 20 this year, a total of 2,890 conflict-affected barangays have been cleared, through the AFP’s Development Support and Security Plan "Kapayapaan" and the DND's Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program.

From July 1, 2016 to Sept. 26, 2022, the AFP recorded a total of 10,608 regular NPA members neutralized, and more than 41,000 underground members, mass supporters, and sympathizers withdrew their support to the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People's Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF).

A total of 4,644 LTG members were also neutralized during the period.

Around 1,386 cities/municipalities and 31,254 barangays nationwide declared the CPP-NPA as persona non grata, indicating a widespread loss of support for the communist movement.

“This victory, of course, cannot be credited only to the DND and AFP. The gains we achieved were brought about by the harmonized endeavors of the national and local levels of government, as well as the active participation of relevant agencies and other stakeholders, through the whole-of-nation approach of the NTF-ELCAC (National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict)," Faustino said.

This is NOT a victory. A victory is when the enemy is either obliterated or submits. Imagine the Allies claiming a strategic victory shortly after the Normandy invasion. That would have been ridiculous. We are being told that the NPA is still recruiting and still poses a threat. Vice President Sara Duterte has flexed her muscles to say that we must show them no mercy. And we are supposed to cheer for this strategic victory? Let's look at a few places where this strategic victory has been obtained. 

In Northern Samar the insurgency has ended for a few months now.  The PNP officers responsible have finally gotten their just rewards for all their efforts. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1184615

The Philippine Army and the local government of Las Navas, Northern Samar have recognized the 35 elite police officers who helped end insurgency in the town’s rebel-infested villages for seven months.

Members of the 12th Special Action Battalion of the Philippine National Police Special Action Force (PNP-SAF) based in Calbayog City, Samar were deployed in the town on Feb. 26, 2022 as retooled community support program (RCSP) operators.

“Through their relentless efforts, four villages were declared cleared, peaceful, and conflict-resilient communities by the area clearing evaluation team. With the presence of SAF members, these communities are now free from the influence of the communist terrorist groups (CTGs) and ready for development,” said 2nd Lt. Joyce Ann Bayron, Philippine Army’s 20th Infantry Battalion (IB) in a phone interview.

These four villages are Bulao, Dolores, San Isidro, and Quirino all in Las Navas town.

“You left these villages peaceful. What you have done for the people of Las Navas will have a long and lasting effect to peace and security that will pave the way for the development in Northern Samar,” Buban said during the ceremony.

Seven months is a good long time. Hopefully the Barangay Development Program and the NTF-ELCAC have come through with funds to develop the area.

Elsewhere the communist insurgency continues to disintegrate as many comrades surrender.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1184560

The recent mass surrender of 16 members of the Communist Party of the Philippines-News People’s Army (CPP-NPA) in Negros has dealt a big blow to the long-running insurgency on the island, a key Army official said Sunday.

Brig. Gen. Inocencio Pasaporte, commander of the 303rd Infantry Brigade, told the Philippine News Agency that the development is a positive outcome of sustained military efforts, particularly for Guihulngan City in Negros Oriental, as this would bring “peace and development”.

The former rebels (FRs) who surrendered during a ceremony last week attended by military, police and local civilian officials included key leaders and members of the Central Negros 1, Komiteng Rehiyon-Negros, Cebu, Bohol, and Siquijor (KR-NCBS) under the Leonardo Panaligan Command.

“I commend the Task Force ELCAC (End Local Communist Armed Conflict) of Guihulngan City for their efforts to entice the remaining members of the CN1 in returning to the folds of the law,” Pasaporte said in mixed English and Filipino.

As to the impact on the underground movement, the Army commander said the rebel group is now “weakening” even though there are statements from their leaders that “they are projecting to be strong”.

Pasaporte said there will be another round of mass surrender soon in one of the towns in Negros Oriental covered by his brigade but he did not elaborate for security reasons.

Isn't it kind of odd that they know there will be another mass surrender very soon? Perhaps not because these people have to be in touch with the AFP but if the mass surrenders are fake as the CPP claims then it makes sense. Also how exactly is the NPA "projecting to be strong?" The AFP has said the NPA is actively recruiting which means they are not weak and just last week they were prevented from blowing up a dam. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1184276

Three communist rebels were killed in an encounter with government troops that foiled their attempt to attack the Kaliwa Dam in Quezon province on Tuesday.

In a statement Wednesday night, Lt. Col. Nestor Estolas, public affairs office chief of the Philippine Army's 2nd Infantry Division (2ID), said the clash took place at Sitio Lagmak in Barangay Pagsangahan, San Francisco town.

He said the slain rebels are part of a larger group that planned to attack the facility.

"Soldiers from the 1st Infantry Battalion and 22nd Division Reconnaissance Company were conducting combat operations at Sitio Lagmak in Barangay Pagsangahan after receiving information from concerned citizens about a planned terror attack at Kaliwa Dam. This led to the interception of 25 armed personalities believed to be members of KLG (Kilusang Larangan Guerilla) Narciso and EXECOM (Executive Committee) of the Southern Tagalog Regional Party Committee's Sub-Regional Military Area 4A, which is led by its secretary Janice Javier alias Yayo," he added.

25 armed members of the NPA tried to attack a dam. That does not sound like they are projecting strength but that they are capable of carrying out attacks. They were only prevented from carrying out the attack because a concerned citizen snitched. 

The AFP claims the NPA is declining in most of Mindanao. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1184750

The communist New People’s Army (NPA) in most parts of Mindanao is critically declining due to the deaths, arrests, and surrender of their top leaders, the Eastern Mindanao Command (Eastmincom) said Tuesday.

Lt. Gen. Greg Almerol, the Eastmincom chief, hailed Army troopers in the regions of Caraga, Davao, and Northern Mindanao for the series of neutralization of NPA leaders and the dismantling of an NPA guerrilla front this month.

“Forty-five NPA members, including high-value individuals, have surrendered, while others were arrested, captured, or killed this month alone by the units under the 10th Infantry Division (ID) and the 4ID,” Almerol said in a statement.

At least 40 high-powered firearms of various calibers and three anti-personnel mines were also recovered during the period, he said.

Of the three top NPA leaders killed during the period, two were in the Caraga, including Noel Alacre, the commanding officer of Platoon 2, Guerrilla Front (GF) 30, and Rolando Leyson Jr., the secretary of GF 16, both of the NPA's North Eastern Mindanao Regional Committee.

Almerol said the Eastmincom also approved the dismantling of GF18 after the government troops neutralized its remaining members and the recovery of war matériel during the series of armed confrontations this month in Lupon and Banaybanay in Davao Oriental province.

He noted that GF18 has weakened since Nov. 2021 with the surrender of its two top leaders.

“We are also eyeing the dismantling of other NPA units in Northern Mindanao and the Caraga Region following the series of neutralization of its top-ranking leaders and the capture of its remaining war matériel,” Almerol said.

He said Eastmincom has dismantled 28 out of 33 NPA guerrilla fronts since 2017.

There are only 5 NPA fronts left in Eastern Mindanao. Hopefully the AFP does not underestimate them as they are so wont to do. 

In Caraga the AFP says the collapse of the NPA is "looming."

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1184950

The Army’s 4th Infantry Division (4ID) official foresees the imminent downfall of the communist New People’s Army (NPA) in Caraga Region with the increasing number of surrenderers in the area.

In a statement Thursday, Maj. Gen. Wilbur Mamawag noted that 40 key NPA leaders and members in the region have so far been neutralized in the past two months.

Thirty-five assorted firearms were also recovered by the government troops during the period.

This month, Mamawag said the biggest number of surrenderers took place in Agusan del Sur wherein a dozen NPA rebels, including a top leader, yielded to the Army’s 26th Infantry Battalion (IB) on Sept. 17 and 25.

The surrenderers were from the NPA Platoon Banglas, Sub-Regional Committee 3, North Central Mindanao Regional Committee.

On Sept. 21, five members of the Sentro de Grabidad Southland of the NPA North Eastern Mindanao Regional Committee in Surigao del Sur also surrendered to the 75IB.

“These string of accomplishments manifests the looming end of the NPA,” Mamawag said, adding that the various units under the 4ID continue to deal with the remnants of the weakened guerrilla fronts.

He said the 4ID is on the "last stretch" of its campaign to end the local communist armed conflict within its area of responsibility, covering most parts of the Caraga and Northern Mindanao.

“At the rate we are going, it seems that our dream to have insurgency-free communities will not be far-fetched,” he said.

The last stretch to end the conflict with the NPA. Hopefully that dream will become a reality soon enough. 

Senator Bato dela Rosa thinks the insurgency will soon end.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1184351

The Philippines will be a better place to live if the government's problem with local insurgency will continue to subside, Senator Ronald Dela Rosa said on Thursday.

During the Sustainable Livelihood Program distribution at SB Park, Quezon City, he asked for the support of the people, saying eradicating local insurgency will entail an improvement in the lives of each Filipino.

"Let us guard our children especially those who are at schools because they have intensified their recruitment now in schools. Our children will be pitiful. They will be gone and we don't know where they went. Then suddenly, we'll discover that they were recruited," he told residents.

During the recent hearing of the Senate Committee on National Defense and Security, Peace, Unification, and Reconciliation, the former chief of the Philippine National Police said he saw a "glimmer of hope" when NTF-ELCAC was formed.

“We said when we were still lieutenants ‘What kind of war is this? We are being left alone by the government to fight against NPA. They’re sitting in their chair, inside their office, just cooling off in the office. We are there in the field, we are the ones who fight. We are the ones who hurt and struggle,” Dela Rosa said.

“Areas formerly known to be communist-infested are now thriving and enjoying their peaceful communities. With the accomplishments of the NTF-ELCAC, many problems in the geographically isolated and disadvantaged areas were resolved, which greatly helped in neutralizing the CPP-NPA,” he added.

This headline might be a bit deceiving. No where does Bato say he sees the insurgency ending soon. What he does say is that the NPA has ramped up recruitment in the schools.  Which schools? Which grades? Proof? He gives none and his statement runs counter to the efforts the AFP has made to end recruitment in schools and that the NPA is on the brink of collapse across the nation. One thing Bato is sure of is that peace talks won't solve the insurgency. 

If the rebels do attempt to regroup the AFP is ready to stop them.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1185092

The Philippine Army's 4th Infantry Division (4ID) based here has made halting any attempt of the communist rebels to reorganize, as one of its long-term objectives.

In a statement Saturday, Maj. Gen. Wilbur Mamawag, commander of the 4ID, said this is part of the Army's "continuous and sustained efforts" to free communities, especially those in the hinterlands, from the violence perpetrated by the New People’s Army (NPA).

"We won’t stop at just toppling down the CTGs (communist terrorist groups), we must be able to ensure that after destroying them, we will not give them any chance to recover, rearm, and regroup. We will make sure that they will remain on the ground unable to do what they used to do – and that is to sow violence and terrorism in our area of responsibility," Mamawag said.

He, however, said despite their hardline stance, they would give a chance to combatants who want to surrender.

Maj. Gen. Wilbur Mamawag is right. It's not enough to dismantle fronts. The CPP-NPA needs to be completely destroyed. That they are contemplating regrouping and restrengthening shows that there is still a spark of life in their ranks.