Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Insurgency: No Repeat of Marawi Siege

It is absolutely incredible how many rebels have surrendered in the past two years. Incredible meaning not believable in the slightest. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1910302/pnp-over-15000-rebels-surrendered-from-2022-to-jan-2024

More than 15,000 rebels have surrendered and joined the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict’s (NTF-Elcac) Balik-Loob Program, the Philippine National Police (PNP) reported Monday.

PNP chief General Benjamin Acorda Jr. said the number of rebel returnees was recorded from 2022 until January 31, 2024.

“A total of 15,092 individuals have surrendered and embraced the Balik-Loob Program through the Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program (ECLIP),” he said in a press briefing.

“These accomplishments contribute to the diligent work of dismantling terrorist networks and disrupting the flow of funds that support acts of terror. These developments underscore the effectiveness of our resolute military operations in the fight against terrorism,” he added.

According to the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG), ECLIP “is a scheme that promotes reconciliation in a non-violent manner, which aims to provide DILG-administered package of assistance”
to former rebels and former violent extremists.

The program’s package covers “immediate assistance, provision of the reintegration process, a starting capital for livelihood, as well as remunerating surrendered firearms.”

On February 14,  the Armed Forces of the Philippines said it aims to eliminate the 11 remaining New People’s Army (NPA) guerrilla units nationwide by the end of 2024.

AFP spokesperson Col. Francel Padilla said a timeline was given to military commanders to defeat the NPA in line with the government’s goal to transition to external defense.

AFP chief General Romeo Brawner Jr reported in January that the number of NPA guerrilla units has declined from 13 to 11.

Don't forget that just last year the AFP said there were only 1,800 NPA fighters left!

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1799676/fwd-afp-npa-has-around-1800-members-left

From around 2,000 members reported in 2022, the communist New People’s Army (NPA) is now down to around 1,800 fighters, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesperson Col. Medel Aguilar said on Monday.

“The CPP-NPA is down to 1,800 plus members,” Aguilar said in an online press conference. CPP stands for the Communist Party of the Philippines.

Aguilar, however, declined to divulge the primary locations of the insurgents.

“Let the military worry about the breakdown. These are tactical information we cannot divulge,” he said.

Aguilar added around 400 NPA rebels have pending cases.

“As we look at the data right now, with 1,800 plus remaining, around 400 plus of them … are facing cases,” Aguilar said.

Where did these 15,000 rebels come from? What are they counting? Who are they counting?  And the AFP says there are 13 guerrilla units left?  Just last month they said there are NO  ACTIVE FRONTS LEFT!!!

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1216269

An official of the National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday said the New People's Army (NPA) is at its weakest state ever in its 55th year of existence as it has "zero active guerilla fronts" and with less than 1,500 fighters remaining nationwide.

What does it mean the NPA has declined from 13 to 11 fronts if none of them are active and the AFP has declared a strategic victory?

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1883388/nsc-npa-now-weakened-strategically-defeated

The New People’s Army (NPA) is “at its weakest in its 55-year-history” and has been “strategically defeated” after the security forces of the country announced that the rebel group no longer has active guerrilla fronts nationwide, National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson Jonathan Malaya said on Wednesday.

With its active guerrilla fronts now weakened, the NPA has been strategically defeated,” Malaya revealed in a press conference on the report of National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-Elcac) executive director Usec. Ernesto Torres Jr. stated that the country only has 14 weakened guerrilla units left for dismantling.

Ok, so they are just weakened fronts? But who cares if they are inactive? The communist insurgency continues to weaken in Cordillera. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1219934

Continued engagement by the police with relatives of former rebels helped neutralize communist groups in the Cordillera region, authorities said.

Data from the Police Regional Office (Cordillera) show that about 103 members of the Communist Party of the Philippines - New People’s Army (CPP-NPA) were neutralized in 2023, up from 91 a year ago.

It shows that a rebel was captured in 2023, while six were arrested, five were killed, and 91 voluntarily surrendered to avail of the enhanced comprehensive local integration program (E-CLIP).

“(The) arrest of three top-ranking leaders somehow caused a vacuum in the leadership of the Ilocos-Cordillera Regional Committee, making it hard for them to sustain its force in the Cordillera region, particularly in their former mass bases.” Brig. Gen. David Peredo said in a report furnished to the Philippine News Agency on Friday.

Police data show that some of the arrested and captured NPA members last year were identified through tactical interrogations, custodial debriefing reports, and the exploitation of recovered documents while others are supporters of the CPP-NPA.

In a phone interview on Friday, Peredo traced the large number of surrenderers to the continuous engagement of police intelligence personnel with relatives of former rebels who have availed of the E-CLIP and the whole-of-nation approach in ending local armed conflict under Executive Order (EO) 70. 

“This implies that the government’s program has effectively enticed some (rebels) and supporters to denounce the CPP-NPA in exchange for a normal and peaceful life with their families,” he said.

Along with fighting the remnants of the NPA the AFP is focused on making sure there is no resurgence of the insurgency in cleared areas.  

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1219960

The Visayas Command (Viscom) said Saturday that military operations will now be focused on preventing the resurgence of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army (CPP-NPA) in communities already cleared of insurgency.

Lt. Gen. Benedict Arevalo, Viscom chief, said in a statement that after the devastating blows against the CPP-NPA in February, the must ensure that insurgents could not take any foothold in areas where development is inevitable.

At least 30 rebels were neutralized during the February operations, 14 of whom died in encounters, 15 surrendered, and one apprehended.

“Our mission is not yet over. We may have achieved significant gains in our campaign last month, but there is a lot to be done," he said.

"Our forces are now focused on preventing the resurgence of the CPP-NPA in the Visayas by neutralizing the few remaining members of the terrorist group,” he added.

“The success of our campaign in its early stage this year is attributed to the active support of our people, having freed them from the clutches of the terrorist group last year. This is the reason why we cannot stop,” Arevalo said. 

The AFP continues to go after the remnants of Maute which has prompted one House member to declare there will be no repeat of the Marawi siege. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1911147/adiong-vows-no-repeat-of-marawi-siege-as-govt-pursues-maute-remnants

Lanao del Sur 1st District Rep. Zia Alonto Adiong has assured the public that there would be no repeat of the Marawi siege despite an incident between Maute group remnants and the military, saying that government forces and local governments are actively pursuing the terrorists.

Adiong in a briefing on Tuesday explained that the support of local government units (LGUs) is crucial to law enforcement agencies and military institutions tracking down Maute Group fighters involved in the recent clash with the military.

Six Scout Rangers and three alleged fighters of the Daulah Islamiyah-Maute Group  (DI-MG) were killed in an encounter in Lanao del Norte’s Munai town last February 25, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. said.

“With the support of the LGUs, we’ve seen how we were able to liberate Marawi City. And I don’t see any reason why the same problem again may pop up in the future,” Adiong, who chairs the Ad Hoc Committee on Marawi Rehabilitation and Victims Compensation, told reporters at the House complex.

The lawmaker also said that the best way to deter public fear about the incident is to show that the government is in control of the situation — which happened as Brawner himself visited the area.

“I saw that after what happened in Lanao del Norte, the chief-of-staff himself went there to condole bereaved families.  And then there are additional deployments in the area to secure it.  Because the military and the police, they already have an idea as to where the remnants would run towards,” Adiong said.

“That’s why it’s important, based on our experience, is the engagement of our security sector with the LGUs down to the barangays.  We need to have a stronger presence there and the intelligence gathering is of prime importance.  Because if we have a good intelligence gathering and we get correct intel, resources are not wasted,” he added.

Representative Adiong could not be more deceptive. The problem is NOT intel gathering but using the intelligence gathered. The government had prior knowledge of the Marawi siege and DID NOT ACT on that intelligence. Instead they ignored it. In an interview in 2017 Adiong admitted this fact. 

"Well I think it, it has been accepted by the military, no less than Secretary Lorenzana, it was more of a lapse in terms of appreciating the facts on the ground. Appreciating intelligence reports. And remember before Marawi siege there was also an attack happen in Butig. The same perceived enemy, the same objective and after Butig, a couple of months after that they attacked the town of Piagapo.  
And already there were reports coming in that they were actually moving toward Marawi City. And the military already knew the attack was supposed to be staged on the 26th of May not 23 it was actually a premature attack because of the warrant of arrest to be served against Isnilon Hapilon. 
Even the people of Marawi knew something was up and they did not speak up. In the same interview Adiong said: 
"Well actually we already, all of the people in Marawi City, in the entire province, already knew that there was a group fashioning themselves after ISIS. We knew about the Maute brothers but it's like a phantom. They're like a phantom.  You know that there's a group but you don't actually know the individual members of this group. So it was more of a distant, say for example, you feel their presence but you don't actually know where they are. So that's why they're like phantom. They come and go and even before the Butig attack they were already harassing non-Marano residents in the city accordingly they even admitted to this hostilities, this harassment against non-Marano residents in the city. 

If there is to be no repeat of the Marawi siege it is not enough for Maute or the rest of IS to be destroyed. The AFP must take all threats seriously and act on intelligence rather than ignore it as was done in the case of Marawi. 

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