Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Intelligence Failures and Prior Knowledge of the Marawi Siege

Today is the one year anniversary of the Marawi siege. One year on many questions remain unanswered. Specifically questions as to what exactly happened during the lead up to the siege? What did the government know and how did they respond to that knowledge?

I have compiled all the video evidence of every single admission of failure and prior knowledge in the lead up to the siege which I could find. There are two instances where video and audio are not available.  Those are: Rappler's May 25th interview with General Rolando Bautista and the Supereme Court testimony of Calida. In the case of Rappler the material is not available. In the case of the Supreme Court all existing audio is corrupt and unusable.

It is possible I have not included every instance of admission of prior knowledge or intelligence failures but what is in this video is enough to show that the government knew full well what was coming and that there was no failure of intelligence.

What follows is the video and then an analysis and transcript of each part.




Video clip 1
Date: May 23, 2017
Source: https://youtu.be/WfYEx3uINqE  

We start off right at the beginning with a press briefing from Moscow just after Duterte declared martial law. Here is the transcript translated so all can read it.
Ms. Bigornia: Sec. Lorenzana, how many troops of the Maute and ISIS are we talking about and are there any lapse in intelligence so they enter undetected Marawi?

SEC. LORENZANA: We know that's where they are. And in fact, there was this big firefight somewhere in [there] in the mountainous areas around Marawi City.

And I do not think there is a lapse of intelligence. It's just appreciation of the intelligence that was lacking there.

They may not ... They thought they could afford it but you know, it's just ... There's intelligence there. It's just the appreciation of what intelligence means that they are somewhat wrong.

Ms. Bigornia: Sir, it was not a lapse? There was no lapse?
https://pcoo.gov.ph/may-23-2017-press-briefing-by-presidential-spokesperson-ernesto-abella-with-department-of-national-defense-secretary-delfin-lorenzana-and-department-of-foreign-affairs-secretary-alan-peter-cayetano/
Lorenzana responds to the last question by shaking his head and mouthing the word "no."

This explanation that there was no intelligence lapse but just a failure to appreciate the intelligence they had will be repeated by the administration again and again. In an interview in August Lorenzana will refer back to this very question from this very briefing and will define "failure to appreciate the intelligence" as a failure to adequately interpret the intelligence. How would he even be able to accurately state this since he is in Moscow and far from the fray? It assumes too many things such as his knowledge of the available intelligence. How can he say definitely there was failure to appreciate the intelligence when the attack and just happened and he had not had the time to review everything? As the following video clips will make clear, Lorenzana is lying. The intelligence was adequately interpreted and the threat known.

Video clip 2
Date: May 29, 2017
Source: https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in-depth/171245-marawi-crisis-isis-plan-bautista

This clip is an article from Rappler detailing an interview with General Rolando Bautista on May 25th. I made several requests via Twitter to acquire either video or audio of this interview but received no replies from Rappler or Carmela Fonbunea. There is no public audio or video available. It is important because it is the first instance we have of the AFP admitting prior knowledge of the siege.

The key statement from Gen. Bautista is:
"Two to 3 weeks before May 23, we received reports that local terrorist groups will seize Marawi City," Bautista said.
The article goes on to state:
The military worked to validate the information and did observe a consolidation of suspicious personalities in the area. But they could only do so much. 
"In the absence of a signature of them bearing firearms, we just reported that there was consolidation," Bautista said. 
They also conducted zoning in the area with the help of the local police. "The goal was to check on locals who are bearing firearms. They isolated those who were residents of the barangay and those who were not," Bautista said.
Does knowing the exact goal and target, seizing Marawi, and then working with local authorities to find suspicious men in the area sound like the AFP did not appreciate the intelligence they had? No it does not. These admissions from Gen. Bautista completely contradict Lorenzana's claim that there was a failure to appreciate the meaning of the intelligence. They knew full well what the intelligence meant. Marawi was targeted by local terrorist groups to be seized. That is pretty straightforward intelligence.

Next we read about what triggered the ensuing five month war.
And then, in the middle of all this, Hapilon showed up where they were expecting the Maute Brothers. It was a complete surprise. 
In military parlance, it's called a "target of opportunity." The military saw a target it was not expecting but had the ability to capture. 
Bautista gave the go-ahead for the raid in Barangay Basak Malutlut on Tuesday afternoon. 
"If we did not act, then he can go away. We've been looking for Hapilon for so many months. We have to value the informaton," said Bautista, himself a former Army commander in Basilan, Hapilon's base for a long time. 
"I believe personally that information is credible. We had to act immedaitey and neutralize Hapilon," he added.
"It was a complete surprise." Those are not Bautista's words which is why I wanted an audio or video of this recording but those words do seem to capture just what happened. Hapilon showed up out of the blue and the AFP acted immediately.

This is important because Presidential Spokesman Abello will say that the AFP used the bare information they had about the Marawi plot to take action and preempt the plot. That is not true. The truth is the plot was preempted by the surprise appearance and the attempted capture of Hapilon.

Video clip 3
Date: June 12, 2017
This clip is just a few sections of the Consolidated Comment on Martial Law which was submitted by  SolGen Calida and as such is the Duterte administration's official response to those seeking to have the declaration of martial law overturned. Because of its official character any and all statements regarding prior knowledge and so-called intelligence failures must be in agreement with this document. This report tells us:
AFP intelligence reports disclose that as early as 18 April 2017, Abdullah Maute had dispatched his followers to the cities of Marawi, Iligan, and Cagayan de Oro to conduct bombing operations, carnapping, and “liquidation” of AFP and PNP personnel in the said areas.
It goes on:
Specifically, on 18 May 2017, intelligence reports revealed that the ISIS-inspired local rebel groups were planning to occupy Marawi City, and to raise the ISIS flag at the provincial capitol. This intelligence report was confirmed through a video recovered by government forces in the lairs of the Maute Group during the course of their military operation on 23 May 2017. The video shows the ASG and Maute Group leaders planning their attack of Marawi City.
Finally we read:
The ISIS-inspired local rebel groups had intended to burn down the entire city of Marawi on the day of Ramadan, or on 26 May 2017. The said attack would have served as the precursor for other rebel groups to stage their own uprisings across Mindanao in a bid to simultaneously establish a wilayah in the region. However, the planned attack by the rebels was foiled when government troops attempted to serve the warrant on 23 May 2017. This forced the ISIS-inspired local rebel groups to prematurely execute their planned siege of Marawi.
This document verifies the testimony of Gen. Bautista who said:
"Two to 3 weeks before May 23, we received reports that local terrorist groups will seize Marawi City," Bautista said.
Two to three weeks before May 23rd would be approximately April 18th which is when the AFP received intelligence that Abdullah Maute had sent his men to various cites to launch a campaign of terror. A month later a second report arrived that ISIS-inspired groups were planning to occupy Marawi but they were unable to confirm this report until the 23rd of May when they recovered a video from the Maute group's hideout showing the plans.

It is clearly stated that the information from May 18, that the city of Marawi was to be sieged, was known before the video was recovered from the Maute group's hideouts. They knew the plan but not the exact date of its execution.

Are we really to believe that having twice been notified of an impending terrorist attack in Marawi City that the AFP simply did not appreciate that intelligence or know what it meant especially when Bautista says they tried to verify it with the local authorities? It defies logic and is a calumny on the AFP to state such a thing.

This report proves Lorenzana is lying.

Video clip 4
Date: June 13, 2017
Source: https://youtu.be/a5gT-RL3PWA

This video is a clip from a press briefing with former Palace Spokesman Ernesto Abella.
Tina Panganiban-Perez (GMA): Sir, Tina from GMA. Sir, there are reports that the Palace knew of the Marawi plot even before the attack. So there are questions why it has reached to this level? Bakit po hindi napigilan agad ng government? And also, AFP had several intel reports na nandoon na si Hapilon in Marawi, April and May. Sir, the Palace knew of the Marawi plot? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: There were details regarding the Marawi plot, yes. And that is exactly why they took advantage — they started to take action. 
So you know, and we need to understand also that the perception that it was… Well, we need to also take note of the fact that the early action of the military and the government has actually preempted their plans to be able to capture the city. So we need to accredit that. 
Yes, there were intel but it was something that had to be vetted and to be authorized properly. Thank you. Next. 
Ms. Perez: So, sir, wait. Sorry. Are you saying that the situation could be worse? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: Apparently. You know, but were it not for the — were it for the early and decisive action of the military, then it would have been — it could have been worse.
The last questions are:
Ms. Gutierrez: Sir, I just want to ask if the scope of information that the government had on plans to attack Marawi include ‘yung timeline of the terrorists attacking Marawi? And if so, sir, why during that time was — were all the security officials of the country, meaning the AFP Chief of Staff, the PNP Chief, NSA Esperon, SND Lorenzana, why were they allowed to go to Russia? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: They were all on top of the situation. They were actually monitoring everything, you know. 
So on the other hand, let’s also give them credit that actually, the action on the ground actually preempted a proposed — the plans. 
So let’s give them credit, let’s give credit to the military and understand that they were actually acting purposively and decisively and actually preempted. I think the keyword is “preempted,” okay? 
So I think it’s not a question of being failure or what — from their point of view… From our point of view, we were able to stop something that could have been much, much bigger. 
Ms. Gutierrez: Eh kasi, sir, the questions of the public was if the government had information, why were all security officials out of the country during that time when they had information that there — serious information? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: There’s ongoing information, always ongoing information. And this is all being vetted. They are all being vetted and so the question was — you know. And the point is that they were all informed and they were all on top of the situation. 
Ms. Andolong: Related pa rin po, sir. But the military seem to have had a clearer idea of the supposed bigger plan of the group when they discovered ‘yung video po. Are you saying that similar information —- kung ano rin po — 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: No, the video was not received until after the — until during the fightings, okay? 
Ms. Andolong: Yes but you’re saying, I just want to clarify that even without a video, you knew about that plot set in the video? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: They knew that there were activities on the ground and, you know, I can only say  that so far. 
They knew that there were activities that were being — that there were abnormal activities. Abnormal activities, yes.
https://pcoo.gov.ph/press-briefing-by-presidential-spokesperson-ernesto-abella-with-secretary-rodolfo-a-salalima-department-of-information-and-communications-technology-dict/
As shown above the details of the plot the AFP had were not the reason any action was taken. Action was taken because on May 23 Hapilon was spotted and immediately they attempted to serve an arrest warrant. The fact that the AFP preempted the plans of the Maute group is wholly accidental and not in any way intentional. Abello is not being truthful with this reply at all. His statement is not in line with the government's official statement given to the Supreme Court. Nor does it agree with the statement of General Bautista who says in the interview he gave with Rappler:
"If we did not act, then he can go away. We've been looking for Hapilon for so many months. We have to value the informaton," said Bautista, himself a former Army commander in Basilan, Hapilon's base for a long time.
There are other problems with Abello's statement such as, "They were all on top of the situation." What does this mean exactly and how does that justify Bato and Año going to Moscow when the AFP had received not one but TWO intelligence reports that Marawi was to be attacked?

The answer to the reporters' question about whether the Marawi plot was known even without the video can be found in the report Calida submitted to the Supreme court:
Specifically, on 18 May 2017, intelligence reports revealed that the ISIS-inspired local rebel groups were planning to occupy Marawi City, and to raise the ISIS flag at the provincial capitol. This intelligence report was confirmed through a video recovered by government forces in the lairs of the Maute Group during the course of their military operation on 23 May 2017. The video shows the ASG and Maute Group leaders planning their attack of Marawi City.
They did know about the plot without the video.

It is interesting that though the questions about prior knowledge are likely based on Calida's report it is not cited in any question.

Video clip 5
Date: June 13, 2017
Source: https://youtu.be/6fGYCNAuKJU 

 This is a news clip from UNTV featuring Abello and Bato. First is the news commentator's interpretation of Abello's remarks from the press briefing as seen in video clip 4.
"Meanwhile Malcañang also revealed that the government and the military actually have had information on the planned siege of the terrorist group led by Isnilon Hapilon prior to the start of attacks in Marawi City. This information was used by the government for the military to take action immediately and in order to prevent the terrorists much bigger plan to capture the entire city."  
This is all a lie. None of the information the AFP or the Palace had was used to prevent the terrorists plans. Even Abello says the information they had was ongoing and in the process of being vetted. This interpretation of Abello's words does not take into account the testimony of Gen. Bautista that Hapilon dropped out of the sky and into the AFP's lap which is why they went to make the arrest which then led to the seizure of the entire city. The AFP may have pre-empted the attack scheduled for three days later but it was entirely by accident.

Next up is Bato.
"PNP Chief Director General Ronald Bato dela Rosa admits that they already had received intelligence report regarding the plans of the Maute terror group to attack Marawi City prior to President Rodrigo Duterte's trip to Russia in March. But the PNP Chief clarified that they had no idea where and when the group would first execute their plans. General dela Rosa disclosed this after some of the administration's critics questioned them why the president left the country despite the prior intel report on the said terror plot." 
I am not going to attempt to transcribe what he says because he is speaking in tagalog and I want everyone to be able to read this. Also not all his comments are in this very short clip. So here are his comments as reported by GMA.
"We do not know that's really their time but we know there's an impending attack," Dela Rosa told a news conference. "As to the exact time, specific date, we just know there's something coming soon." 
Had he known the date of the planned attack, Dela Rosa said he and other government officials would not have joined President Rodrigo Duterte in his official visit to Russia. 
"Had we known the timing of the attack, maybe we will not go," he said
There must be a typo in the newscasters teleprompter because Duterte did not go to Russia in March nor did the AFP receive knowledge about the Marawi attack until April. The answer Bato gives is as stupid as the smug look on his face when he gives it. Knowing the exact timing of the attack is irrelevant since, as he admits, they knew it was an impending attack which means it's about to happen soon and not far off in the future. And if they knew it was impending then Lorenzana's assertion that there was a failure to appreciate the meaning of the intelligence is again proven to be a lie.

So why did Bato, Año, and Lorenzna all leave the country when they were expecting an attack? One of them accompanying the President is one thing but all three of them? That is a question which still needs answering.

Video clip 6
Date: June 14, 2017
Source: https://youtu.be/7tNzTBEfDsg

This video clip is from the Mindanao Hour Press Briefing on June 14, 2017 featuring Presidential Spokesman Ernesto Abello and General Restitutio Padilla. I have taken the liberty of running the transcript through Google translate so all can read the remarks.
Dexter Ganibe (DZMM): Secretary Abella, sir, good morning. Sir, if I'm not mistaken you mentioned yesterday that the Palace knew beforehand that the Maute group plan on doing violence in Marawi City, am I right? Has intelligence reports been received as early April? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: Come again? 
Mr. Ganibe: As early as April? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: I'm not specific about the timeline, yes. But there was information, yes? 
Mr. Ganibe: Sir, did it talk about Cabinet meetings' what would be the government's action if it would ever verify the intelligence before the Marawi? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: There were - the discussion on this ... It was also mentioned in the Cabinet but it was also mentioned with several people who were most closely - could be closely responsible for these matters: SND, NSA, stuff like that, people like that, yes. 
Mr. Ganibe: Before the attack happened? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: Which one? 
Mr. Ganibe: 'The Marawi? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: The President has always been mentioning about - he has always been talking about the presence of ISIS-related groups in Mindanao. So he has been talking about that for the longest time. So it's not as if it's anything strange, yes. 
Mr. Ganibe: But did not you specify when Ramadan enters them to take the attack? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: Look, first and foremost, 'what, the President was aware of information - there was information coming in the ground as the top brass, the top was very, very aware of these things. 
However, those who would really fully implement these matters will be left to the ground commanders, right? So there was, there was knowledge of - yes, there was sufficient information. So your question is? 
Mr. Ganibe: If there is enough information to stage them as an attack before Ramadan, why the top officials left the country? 
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESPERSON ABELLA: No, there was enough ... As we were earlier discussing, there was enough information. 
On the other hand, the top commanders need not need to be physically present because they were not - they did not have to be there to pull out guns. These matters were going to be related to ground commanders. However, there was enough information and the ground commanders themselves had said, "Look, it's ... You can travel." Yes? 
https://pcoo.gov.ph/mindanao-hour-press-briefing-by-presidential-spokesperson-ernesto-abella-with-armed-forces-of-the-philippines-spokesperson-brig-gen-restituto-padilla-jr-2/
Now we learn that the plans to attack Marawi were likely discussed in Cabinet meetings with the President and that the top brass was not only aware but "very, very aware of these things." Abello also says that Duterte was always talking about the presence of ISIS in Mindanao. Moreover he declares there was sufficient information for the problem to be dealt with without the presence of top brass.

Does this sound like there was "no appreciation of intelligence?" Not at all. It sounds like they really did appreciate what they knew and it sounds like they knew a whole lot.


This video clip is a news article about Day 2 of oral arguments on martial law before the Supreme Court. I was unable to locate a transcript and the audio, even on the Supreme Court's website, is utter garbage and unlistenable noise. Listen for yourself: http://sc.judiciary.gov.ph/microsite/martial-law/audio-recording.html
“Apparently the Maute rebels were well-prepared. How is it that our military, it’s a total failure of intelligence,” Del Castillo said on the second day of oral arguments on the petition seeking to nullify President Duterte’s declaration of martial law in Mindanao. 
Del Castillo asked Solicitor General Jose Calida why the military did not discover the Maute group’s preparations ahead of the siege which began on May 23.  
“The way the war has waged on, it would seem that the Maute rebels are well-prepared. Their arms, ammunition seem to be inexhaustible. And there was one time millions of pesos was recovered from a hideout. It takes time to have done what they did. And I’m surprised why the military never discovered all these, the preparations that went into it,” he said. 
“Why did it have to reach this point where practically the military was taken by surprise? You were trying to arrest, you were saying, [Abu Sayyaf leader] Isnilon [Hapilon] and to prevent that, the Maute rebels had to make their act.” 
Calida, in a consolidated comment on the Supreme Court petitions against the martial law declaration, previously said the military knew in April that the Maute group’s followers had been deployed to Marawi City and nearby areas. 
Calida responded to Del Castillo's question by saying “intelligence gathering is not perfect.” 
“It’s like a jigsaw puzzle. There are certain parts of the puzzle that are not yet clear. But one thing is clear, the military knew that Hapilon was already in Marawi City and that’s why they went there to arrest him because they got wind also of his plans,” he said.
Without a transcript it's difficult to accurately comment on this exchange between Calida and Justice Del Castillo.

Calida's response about intelligence gathering not being perfect is no defence but an attempt to shirk responsibility. They knew specific things and still failed to stop them from happening.

Video clip 8
Date: June 17, 2017
Source: https://youtu.be/XF1Pv5dUSio 

This is a video of a speech Duterte gave during his visit to the 401st Brigade, 4th Infantry Division Advance Command post. Here is the transcript translated into English so all can follow along.
I want to add. 
It was not a question of failure on the part of government. As we have, we have adapted a very soft policy towards the rebels. And this came about because they carry a gun eh. And since we are thinking of getting peace with the MNLF and MI, the weapon game there, we took it for granted. We took it really for granted. But we know that we are heavy. 
But because we did not know at that time who really was the opponent. Are the politicians fighting, they are rude, or are they private armies of politicians? 
Now, out-of-the-box, this Maute was bringing the firearms surreptitiously and we did not get as much ammo as the gun inside. 
And besides, it was not a failure of intelligence. If they still see weapons, then say, MI, MN, the standing order is ... maybe we might just talk about our brothers and sisters. No chaos. 
But all the while, this Maute, with the connivance of the politicians there, the warlords, were stockpiling. So the M-203 bullet can not be exhausted and so many. 
One of the government will be knocked out, will be added - will be returned to us, five. So it seems like endless supply when Maute rose to fight against government.
https://pcoo.gov.ph/speech-of-president-rodrigo-roa-duterte-during-his-visit-to-the-401st-brigade-4th-infantry-division-4id-advance-command-post/
There is not much to comment about here. Duterte admits that the government's soft policy towards the MILF and MNLF rebels enabled the Maute group to easily stockpile weapons in Marawi. He says that they took the presence of weapons for granted and that there was no failure of intelligence. Duterte does not indicate there was a failure to appreciate the intelligence as did Lorenzana.

What has been done to rectify this policy blunder? Nothing as far as I know. The "peace process", which Duterte hopes will culminate with the passing of the BBL, continues as before.

Also note that Duterte does not place any blame on the Aquino administration. If he really thought the previous administration was to blame for allowing Maute to grow he would have said so. Duterte is no stranger to blaming Aquino as he has done with regard to China and the SCS.

Video clip 9
Date: July 24, 2017
Source: https://youtu.be/fk_0FYZAsAE

This is a clip from Duterte's post-SONA conference.
Q: Sir, did your visit play a role in changing or say making up your mind about asking for extension of five months? Because on July 11 sir, when you visited the Philippine Stock Exchange, you made a statement that you only need 15 days to resolve the crisis in Marawi but you asked for--- 
PRESIDENT DUTERTE: Yes, correct. That’s even too long. I said in about a few days, three. Hindi namin alam. And there was this failure of intelligence actually. 
Hindi namin alam gaano kalalim na pala. There were tunnels there and they were stocking explosives until now. 
It seems to be without--- It’s not exhausted. Hanggang ngayon, sila nagtataka kung saan kinukuha.  
So in other words, the build up was there for many months. Hindi ko sinasabi na I’m blaming the Maranao. 
I’m blaming the Maranaos who are in cahoots with the terrorists because obviously the stockpile was there for so long a time. Hindi maubusan eh. 
Hindi maubusan ng bala pati explosives. Now, it turns out that they have plenty still. 
So nagkamali kami doon, ang ibig sabihin. If that is what you want, there was a mistake in the evaluation or assessment.

https://pcoo.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/20170724-MEDIA-INTERVIEW-WITH-PRESIDENT-RODRIGO-ROA-DUTERTE-FOLLOWING-HIS-2ND-STATE-OF-THE-NATION-ADDRESS.pdf
One week after his speech before the 401st Brigade Duterte, where he said there was no failure of intelligence, he now says "there was this failure of intelligence actually." Is he backtracking? I don't think so. He is talking about two different things here. In the previous speech he was talking about the flow of weapons of which he says the government was aware and took for granted. Here he is talking about the tunnels as well as the stockpiles of weapons. The government may have taken the flow of weapons for granted but it seems they were unaware of just how many weapons were being stockpiled in secret tunnels.

Again there is no blame placed on Aquino. He puts the blame on "the Maranos who are in cahoots with the terrorists because obviously the stockpile was there for so long a time." Duterte is correct to blame the Maranos and this will come up again later in the last two clips. How is it possible these tunnels were dug and weapons were stored and no one knew? It's not possible.

Take note of the time frame also. "Many months." Not "many years." Of course many years would also be many months but Lorenzana will corroborate this claim of "many months" when he says "six months" would be enough to stockpile weapons.

Video clip 10
Date: July 25, 2017

The day after Duterte's SONA, DND Sec. Lorenzana gave a speech at the MAP General Assembly meeting.
Now there are lots of talks going around that there was a failure of intelligence. In a way it was.  I said in Moscow....I was asked by one of the media people there was it a failure of intelligence. I said no it was a failure to appreciate the intelligence. Becasue for a long time, for the longest time we were reading in the website of the ISIS in the Middle East that says if you want to continue fighting after here you go to southern Philippines.  So we...the president has warned us the ISIS is coming. Our...countries Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore supposed to warn us that fighters are infilitrating the southern waters going to south Philippines. But for some reason for the longest time I think the armed forces of the Philippines were in denial of this fact. 
When I assumed the position of Secretary of Defense, I was told that there was no ISIS in the Philippines. So we were keeping that stand until in November when we had this operation in Butig against the Maute Group so then we would change our stance and said they are there, they are here. What happened in Marawi is a lesson for every one of us in the defense department. We failed to appreciate the looming problem because they were trying to infiltrate from the outside towards Marawi City, a lot of firearms, a lot of fighters foreign and local. 

When this Marawi blew up May 23 I said there were only about 200 to 250 fighters.  It turned out there were 700 fighters.
In this speech Lorenzana revisits his first denial in Moscow that there was a failure of intelligence but he also gives us a little bit more information on which to grab. He claims that when he assumed his current position as DND Secretary he was informed there was no ISIS in the Philippines and he says the AFP was in denial about fighters infiltrating the southern Philippines. 

I do not know what Lorenzana was told or not told upon assuming office but I do know that the presence of ISIS in the Philippines has been known since December 2015 with the Philippines and Australia even pledging to work together to stop them.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-11/australia-philippines-vow-cooperation-against-islamic-state/7020372

You can read a previous post of mine detailing the history of the presence of ISIS in the Philippines which starts in October 2014 http://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2017/06/is-isis-in-philippines-or-not.html

It does not make any sense for Lorenzana to say the AFP was in denial about ISIS or that he was ignorant of the inroads ISIS had been making when this is very public and widely reported knowledge. Either Lorenzana is lying or he is very misinformed.

Video clip 11
Date: July 27, 2017

In this news report Lorenzana says the military ignored intelligence given to them by Singapore and Malaysia and he says that "the time of blaming somebody is past" indicating he is not one for an investigation into the so-called failures which led to Marawi. 
Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana admitted they were warned by neighboring countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, of the militant group’s attempt to control Marawi City, but the military just ignored it. 
“We have to study first who they really are. We have big intelligence information and we have to find out who. Perhaps, the time of blaming or pointing somebody is past because this is what is happening. We can no longer bring back the life of those 110 people who were killed or 900 wounded civilians who also died,” He said. 
Lorenzana said the disregard of vital information allowed terrorists to prepare their fighters; stockpile high caliber firearms and plan their strategy in taking hold of Marawi. 
“The people monitoring the situation on the ground, they were not able to foresee or anticipate the entrance and exits of unfamiliar faces in Marawi. Personnel within the city were not reporting what is happening. I don’t know for what reason that all problems piled up. That’s why we have this Marawi incident,” added Lorenzana. 
Despite this, the Defense Secretary said what happened in Marawi should serve as a lesson to everyone to always validate all intelligence reports they receive. 
“Maybe what we could do in the future is to re-study what we are doing in the intelligence sector, our effort, so that we can be better prepared if something like this happens again,” he said. 
The DND also said it wants to focus first on defeating the remaining terrorists in Marawi City before holding liable those who failed to validate intelligence reports on the matter. 
https://www.untvweb.com/news/dnd-admits-being-unappreciative-of-intel-reports-on-maute-isis-attacks-in-mindanao/
Contrary to Lorenzana, the time of blaming somebody is far from past and whoever is responsible for ignoring these intelligence reports deserves all the blame that comes their way. But even if the reports were ignored  the report to the SC by Calida makes it clear they knew the attack was being planned. These foreign intelligence reports are not germane because the AFP already had their own reports that Marawi was going to be attacked.

 It's also not about blame, it's about fixing the holes in the Philippines' intelligence apparatus. Somewhere along the line somebody did not do what they should have been doing and the government admits it 100%. They say they failed to appreciate the intelligence which is as much to say they ignored it. But they did not ignore it because there were Cabinet level meetings! Lorenzana's statements don't make any sense.

I think Lorenzana does not want an investigation because it will reveal that the government knew too much and basically allowed the attack to happen. A government allowing a violent terrorist attack to occur in order to achieve a political goal would not be unheard of.

Video clip 12
Date: August 10, 2017
Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/video-on-demand/conversation-with-s13/delfin-lorenzana-9114442  

This is the final interview with Lorenzana included in this video and it is very revelatory. More pieces are added to the puzzle than in any of the previous clips. But just as many questions remain. Sitting down with Aya Lowe from Channel NewsAsia Lorenzana opens up to some probing questions.

 Aya Lowe:
"But these fighters have been holed up in the centre of the commercial centre of Marawi City. How are they able to withstand for so long? How do they have enough ammunition, enough food, enough fighters?"
Lorenzana:
"I think they have been stockpiling these things for quite some time. Maybe six months before. Firearms, explosives, ammunitions. For the for remember that all those buildings there are homes before they were abandoned by the residents so there must be some food there even if they're not fresh I think there is some food and rice and canned goods there for a stockpile. Or they could have stockpiled themselves in points around the city so that wherever they go they have enough food to eat." 
This answer is significant because at no time does Lorenzana place the blame for the attack on the Aquino administration. The Butig conflict happened in December 2016. Six months on would bring us to May 2017. Lorenzana thinks this is plenty of time to stockpile weapons. 

 I stress this point because many I have interacted with have suggested Aquino is to blame. That the Maute were growing and stockpiling weapons during Aquino's term and he did nothing and therefore is entirely culpable. It is not for me to absolve the Aquino administration of any responsibility but only to point out that Lorenzana and Duterte do not share that sentiment. A Senate investigation would uncover whatever role the Aquino administration played or did not play in the rise of Maute and ISIS in the Philippines.

She continues with this question:
"You yourself admitted that there was a failure of intelligence at the beginning of the Marawi siege so what is being done to rectify this and how can you ensure that there won't be another Marawi?"
Lorenzana responds:
"Yeah we have been looking into our intelligence gathering effort but more importantly is how to interpret the intelligence. Now I said before when we were in Moscow and this thing blew up I said there was no "failure of intelligence" but appreciation of intelligence already on hand. But it's still a failure of intelligence because if you fail to interpret what's in your hand it's just a failure of knowing what this information is giving you, is telling you at the face.  And so that's what I meant when there is a lack of appreciation of intelligence because there were lots of things that happened before like our number one intelligence officer in Marawi was killed. 
He had people inside working with the group and he knew where these people were going every hour of the day because he gets texts from his people. But these people were discovered by the Mautes. They turned him around and ambushed the officer. After that we were blind. So it takes some time, a lot of time actually, over a long period to develop intelligence on the ground, to build up assets who were the enemy, assets in Marawi or in Lanao del Sur. So we were blindsided by the death of this major so from then on we actually did not know that they had been infiltrating a lot of fighters inside Marawi, bringing in explosives, ammunition, firearms, and everything there." 
Lorenzana's admission that they had an inside man in the Maute group is a real stunner that opens up many more questions. Specifically where does this event fall on the timeline leading to the Marawi attack? How long was the DND blind after this man was killed? Was it before or after April 18th? If this operative knew where everyone was at every hour of the day then how in the world was the DND and AFP left in the dark about the massive influx of weapons and fighters in preparation for the siege?

Aya Lowe:
"And for the longest time the military and the government have been saying these are only ISIS-inspired groups  and recently you admitted these are actually members of ISIS  and there is evidence of money and fighters being funnelled into the country so why did it take so long to admit they were elements of ISIS?"
Lorenzana:
"Well I think part of the reasons that the armed forces  maybe did not want to accept the fact that the Philippines, the southern Philippines would one day be a part of this ISIS movement but really we knew that the ISIS in the Middle East had been telling, writing on their website that if you  lost middle east and you want to  continue fighting go to southern Philippines. We know that. 
The President I think he's more prescient than any of us and said, "The ISIS will be coming here." He had been warning us since  the start in Butig  sometime in October, November last year. They are coming here, they are coming here. And so he was right. He as right all along. But for the longest time we were in denial actually."
The last line about Duterte being prescient is ridiculous. Since December 2015 the AFP has known about the presence of ISIS in the Philippines. ISIS was even kind enough to release a video of  a training camp in Mindanao. It is simply not believable that the AFP was in denial about ISIS as they agreed to cooperate with Australia to fight the incursion of ISIS into the southern Philippines. Long before the battle of Butig the whole world knew that the southern Philippines was the next launching point for ISIS.

In this next question Lorenzana discusses marital law.

Aya Lowe:
"And one of the methods to protect Mindanao from the threat of terrorism is the imposition of marital law and that   was recently extend until December."
Lorenzana:
"December 31st right."
Aya Lowe:
"But you were initially against marital law so why was that?"
Lorenzana:
"I did not say I was against. In fact I was just asked before if the problem in Marawi could be contained without martial law. I said yes it could be. And I think some of the Congressman and Senators misconstrued my answer as saying I don't want martial law but the President and I had been discussing martial law since the incident in Butig. And it was there when he said I might impose martial law so prepare for that."
Lorenzana says Martial law had been discussed since November 2017 and that Duterte said to prepare for it. Did he also discuss martial law in the Cabinet meetings where Abello said the information to attack Marawi was discussed?

Video clip 13
Date: January 2, 2018
Source: http://uat.iwantv.com.ph/tv/show/Beyond-Politics/Episode-January-2-2018?s=827&e=155222

We now come to an interview with ARMM assemblyman Zia Alonto Adiong. Two months had passed since the end of the siege and now Lynda Jumilla helps Adiong reflect on everything that happened leading up to and during the Marawi attack.

Lynda Jumilla:
"What were the conditions that allowed, existing at that time, that allowed the Maute group to enter and seize control of the city?"
Adiong:
"Well I think it, it has been accepted by the military, no less than Secretary Lorenzana, it was more of a lapse in terms of appreciating the facts on the ground. Appreciating intelligence reports. And remember before Marawi siege there was also an attack happen in Butig. The same perceived enemy, the same objective and after Butig, a couple of months after that they attacked the town of Piagapo.  
And already there were reports coming in that they were actually moving toward Marawi City. And the military already knew the attack was supposed to be staged on the 26th of May not 23 it was actually a premature attack because of the warrant of arrest to be served against Isnilon Hapilon. 
So had they been, had the siege was actually done on the schedule they could have actually, they called off the city hall and the provincial capitol of Marawi because everyone was actually in the mood for the Ramadan.  
And we heard that the Maute and the ASG was actually replicating the Mosul declaration in Iraq. Remember when the ISIS presented themselves to the world they attacked Iraq in 2012 on Ramadan. So they were actually replicating that because Iraq was no longer considered to be the centre of the operation they are moving towards the far east so it was more a, I should say it's a lack of intelligence an appreciation of facts on the ground."
Adiong does not newer the question. The question is how was the attack able to happen and Adiong defers to Lorenzana's statements about failed intelligence. He will give a little clearer answer to this question when he says that the Maute were a "phantom army" and no one knew who they were which enabled them to stockpile weapons and recruit members.

Note how says there was a lack of intelligence and then he gives a rundown of the whole scheme. How did he know any of this? What reports is he talking about that Maute was moving towards Marawi City? Who learned that the Maute were going to replicate the Mosul declaration by attacking on Ramadan when this attack date was not known to the AFP until the 23rd when they found videos of the attack being planned? From what frame of reference is he talking? With hindsight?

Lynda:
"So this information, this intelligence, was available to the military but was it also available to the other stake holders?"
Adiong:
"We actually we were never informed. In fact the composite team serving the arrest warrant is not really from a police or a military in Lanao del Sur, in Marawi City. It was actually a composite team from other region. 
"In fact the mayor himself was trapped when there was the initial fighting. He was about to go to the town of Wato to visit family.  And he was there in the location itself  when the fighting started. So if there was an information given to us it could have been, it would have been without setting up a date for the Maute to attack Marawi City. Because if the mayor knew that there was going to be an attack on the 23rd he could have called all the law enforcement authorities to deal with this problem in order to avoid the attack in the city.
How would the mayor of Marawi know there was going to be an attack on the 23rd when Adiong just admitted that the attack on the 23rd was premature because of the arrest warrant which was served against Hapilon? It's absurd!

When Adiong says "we were not informed" what exactly does he mean? The AFP knew as early as April 18 that the Maute group had sent fighters to Marawi, Illigan City, and Cagayan de Oro. Were none of the mayors of these cities informed by the AFP of these plans? Or does he mean that they were not informed about the attempted arrest of Hapilon?

Lynda:
"What about the residents? We always talk about heightened vigilance in this age of terrorism and we give trainings to all our constituents and to students etc., but what were their responses? I mean was there adequate or quick response when it became clear that this was no ordinary group going around parading their high powered guns?"  
Adiong:
"Well actually we already, all of the people in Marawi City, in the entire province, already knew that there was a group fashioning themselves after ISIS. We knew about the Maute brothers but it's like a phantom. They're like a phantom.  You know that there's a group but you don't actually know the individual members of this group. So it was more of a distant, say for example, you feel their presence but you don't actually know where they are. So that's why they're like phantom. They come and go and even before the Butig attack they were already harassing non-Marano residents in the city accordingly they even admitted to this hostilities, this harassment against non-Marano residents in the city. 
So it's more of like knowing them but not knowing exactly who are the members. That's why when they came out on the 23rd everyone was really surprised. Even in the family they never expected that one family member has actually joined the group. In our case, I give an example, there was this kid in our neighbourhood who used to go to our place because his mom used to do laundry for us and on the attack that's the only time that we learned that this kid of 14 years old was actually joined, has been a member of the Maute for several years since 2011. He was recruited in 2011."      
Like Bato's answer about not knowing the specific time of the attack, Adiong's answer about not knowing specially who are the individual members of the Maute group is irrelevant. Actually he contradicts himself when he says first, they were like a phantom and then they were harassing residents. Phantoms don't harass people. Whoever was being harassed saw these people face to face. The presence of Maute was known and if it was known by all of the people in Marawi City and the entire province then you can bet all the politicans also knew. The Mayor of Marawi undoubtedly knew. When a warrant was put out for the arrest of ex-Marawi mayor Omar "Solitario" Ali for allegedly helping the terrorists infiltrate the city it was not without substance.

Lynda Jumilla:
"Going back to the original question, given all that you have seen and all that has happened, could it have been prevented? At least the point of the attack on Marawi?"
Adiong:
"Well right now, well everybody was actually wishing sana hindi na ta loy. Again our focus right now is moving forward. It has already happened. The destruction is already there. So we really have to re-channel our energy and our focus toward reconstruction Marawi city. Yes there are several frustrations even up to now coming in. But then again we cannot dwell on the past. Let's move forward you know. This is a big lesson not only for  Marawi City but for the entire country because there were attempts really by overseas terror networks that they're really trying to come into the country and make Philippines as the centre of their operations in South East Asian region."
It's all well and good to not dwell on "what could have been" but it seems like Adiong does not want to learn any real lessons from Marawi which would prevent another siege from happening elsewhere.

Lynda Jumilla:
"Having seen the firepower and the staying power of the terrorists, of the Maute group and their supporters, do you think really it was something that would last for 5 months?"
Adiong:
"Yeah I guess it was well planned and well organised. That's why whenever somebody says it's partly the blame should, you know, on the people, and for us, like how can you expect the civilians to engage a well financed, well organised, well trained armed group?"
Doesn't he mean a well financed, organised, and trained phantom group? He has abandoned his earlier position that the Maute group were like phantoms and now says they were too powerful to confront. He has changed his story.

Video clip 14
Date: April 25, 2018
Source: https://www.facebook.com/TaMNYEastCoast/videos/405181946553955/

In this clip Presidential Adviser to the Peace Process Jesus Dureza flatly contradicts the statements of Adiong that the people of Marawi City did not know who were members of the Maute group because they were like a phantom.

Reporter Elton Lugay:
"Can you give us an update on the crisis in Marawi and martial law?"
That is not his exact question but that is my translation and summation.

Dureza:
"When martial law ... Marawi because many people were shocked, people from Marawi, even the Moro people. They never thought that they themselves wold become victims of violent extremists. They knew that many are members of their own clan.  They know them. They knew that they were moving firearms for a long time, they had been stockpiling up firearms. But when I asked the evacuees "Bakit di nyo sinabi yan?" (Why didn't you tell us?) "Sir, akala namin, kapwa Muslim hindi kami bibiktimahin" (We thought they would spare us because we are also Muslims).” 
Dureza speaks about this personally. He says "When I asked the evacuees." He is not speaking from hearsay. That's because he was there in the midst of all the refugees.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/01/17/dureza-joins-marawi-evacuees-in-eidl-adha-celebration

People get relaxed and open up over a meal. No doubt these refugees opened up to Jesus and confessed everything.

Let's sum up each clip in 14 points.
  1. There was no failure of intelligence just a lack of appreciation of the intelligence on hand.
  2. Two to three weeks before May 23, the AFP received reports that local terrorist groups will seize Marawi City. Hapilon serendipitously appears which leads to an attempted arrest and the subsequent war.
  3. The AFP received intel on April 18 and May 18 that Marawi was to be sieged.
  4. Abello says yes they knew but he says to focus on the AFP's preemptive action.
  5. Bato says they knew about an impending attack but not the specific time of the attack.
  6. There were Cabinet level meeting about the planned Marawi attack before it happened.
  7. Calida says “intelligence gathering is not perfect.”
  8. Duterte says a soft policy towards the rebels allowed weapons to be moved into Marawi.
  9. Duterte blames the Maranos.
  10. Lorenzana says when he took office he was unaware of ISIS being in the country.
  11. Ignored foreign intelligence reports.
  12. The DND had an inside man in the Maute group and they knew all their movments at every time of day.
  13. The people of Marawi and the entire province knew about Maute but not who the specific members were.
  14. The people of Marawi knew about the weapons stockpiling and who the members of the group were but said nothing because they thought they would be spared since they were Muslims.
There is a lot of contradictory information in this video which raises many questions. I hope it is clear by now to all who have watched the video and read this analysis that the Duterte administration has not been truthful about the lead up to the Marawi siege.

They knew about the impending attack. There was no failure of intelligence. So why did the attack happen given all they knew?

The only way to answer that question and to learn the truth is a Senate investigation. Let us hope this video and this information falls into the hands of people who can make a Senate investigation come about so that the truth will come out.

Investigate Marawi Now!
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