An explosive and chaotic week in Mindanao commenced with the bombing of The Cathedral of Our Lady of Mount Carmel in Jolo just days after the BOL was ratified. The story is still being unravelled but it appears this bombing is the second Marawi incident warned about by the AFP and PNP last year though of course not in scope and intensity but certainly in that there were prior warnings and lapses in security just like the first Marawi. Following on the heels of this attack a peace consultant for the NDFP was shot in the face point blank as he slept on a bus which set the communists in an uproar. All the while the Supreme Court began hearing oral arguments on the validity of the third extension of martial law. With so much happening it will be best to succinctly break down each incident to show how they connect and where everything is headed.
First the bombing in Jolo.
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/222109-jolo-bombing-january-2019-what-we-know |
The attack was executed with two improvised explosive devices (IED) detonated at the Cathedral of Our Lady of Mount Carmel in Jolo. The cathedral was filled with around 100 Mass-goers.
At around 8:58 am, while the Second Reading was being read, the first IED inside the cathedral was detonated, injuring scores of Mass-goers and alarming military and police officers stationed outside.
Just as soldiers and cops rushed to enter the cathedral, the second IED exploded at the church's entrance.
"The second [IED exploded] after around 12 to 15 seconds," police chief Director General Oscar Albayalde said in an interview with reporters at the blast site the day after the attack.
Most of the security personnel who were hurt by the blast are from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), as they were tasked, according to Albayalde, to secure the "inner perimeter" of the cathedral. This setup has made AFP personnel closer responders, and now, victims.
With security personnel tasked to guard the inner and outer permitter of the church as well as PNP and AFP officers being dispersed through out the city at various checkpoints they fact that anyone was able to sneak a bomb past them is mind boggling. But not really. It's the same old story as in Marawi: security lapses.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/01/28/1888905/palace-admits-security-lapses-may-have-led-jolo-cathedral-bombings |
"We will have to investigate how it happened. There may be some lapses in security. How they were able to put there — is that a motorcycle with a bomb — despite the fact that there were soldiers securing the place," Panelo said in a press briefing.
"There is no other conclusion to reach. If you have security there and there is one or two bombs being placed inside, then there must be a lapse in security. There is no other reasonable conclusion," he added.
It remains to be seen if bombs were even placed anywhere as, after first denying, the government is now confirming that this bombing was the handiwork of two Indonesian suicide bombers. A husband and wife team.
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/222473-ano-sources-say-jolo-suicide-bombers-indonesians |
Interior Secretary Eduardo Año said initial information from sources identified two Indonesians behind the deadly Jolo Cathedral bombing.
Año, on Friday, February 1, emphasized that this piece of information must still be verified.
"Ang talagang nagpasabog doon ay Indonesian suicide bombers (The ones behind the bombings are Indonesian suicide bombers)," he said in the Barangay Summit on Peace and Order in Palo, Leyte.
"Hindi pa tapos yung ginagawang investigation but I have sources na itong pagsabog ay project ng Abu Sayyaf at itong foreign terrorist na related sa ISIS (Islamic State group)," he later on said in an interview with reporters.
(The investigation is not over but I have sources who said the bombing was a project of Abu Sayyaf and this foreign terrorist related to ISIS.)
Año said information from his sources matched details made public by President Rodrigo Duterte – that the suicide bombers were a husband and wife team.
Año, a former military intelligence chief, said he sees no connection between the Jolo cathedral bombing and the Zamboanga City mosque bombing.
What may be related, he said, is the Jolo blast and the deadly bombing in Lamitan City, Basilan on July 31, 2018.
Lorenzana had said at the time that the blast also appeared to be a suicide attack. Año said what links the two attacks is the alleged involvement of a foreign ISIS member in the Basilan blast.
What kind of situation is it where the President is publicly revealing details of an investigation which contradict the statements of the AFP? Why wouldn't he just let the investigation run its course and from where and who is Duterte receiving information that contradicts the AFP? Why did the AFP suddenly decide Duterte was right and they were wrong? Too bad there was no CCTV to capture the whole attack.
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| https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/683755/dilg-chief-ano-failure-to-install-cctvs-inside-outside-bombed-jolo-church-a-security-lapse/story/ |
The DILG chief also conceded that while he has announced that an Indonesian couple bombed the cathedral based on the accounts of his sources, this was not captured by CCTV videos owned by private businesses near the cathedral that authorities were able to secure.
Still, Año was confident in his pronouncement that the suspects are connected with global terrorist group ISIS which is also known for beheading hostages.
Now we come to the part which is so reminiscent of Marawi. Prior knowledge and failed intelligence. First prior knowledge.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/01/29/1889151/lorenzana-was-aware-threat-churches-mindanao-palace |
"Secretary Delfin Lorenzana was telling me, 'You know, the threat against the churches, we knew about that,'" Panelo said in a mix of English and Filipino.
The problem was that the perpetrators pretended to be churchgoers, avoiding suspicion from government troops inspecting the area, according to Lorenzana.
This seems to be a general threat unlike the specific information which named Marawi as a target one month before the actual siege. The excuse that these bombers posed as churchgoers is not a good excuse. At every mall one must enter through metal detectors and have their bags searched. How much more so in the wake of threats against churches during a state of martial law? Are we to believe that there is more security at malls than at a church which has received threats and is in a zone where martial law has been imposed? Of course not which is why those who attended mass at the now bombed out cathedral don't believe the government's claims about what happened.
Why are Davao Mayor Sara Duterte and Senatorial candidate Bong Go visiting the bomb site? Why are any of those people there? Instead of shuffling around the debris looking solemn and somber and out of place they should let investigators do their work.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1080878/jolo-mayor-tan-fears-whitewash-in-probe-of-twin-blasts |
He said investigators in Jolo were hampered by the state of the preservation of the crime scene.
“Our field operatives are encountering some difficulty because so many people have come in and out of the cathedral and may have accidentally moved the physical evidence,”Guevarra said.
Residents as well as the families of the victims who either died or were wounded in the twin blasts refused to believe claims by President Rodrigo Duterte and other government officials that Indonesian suicide bombers may have carried out the attack.
Instead, they wanted security forces to answer why the bomber was able to get inside the cordoned-off area and evade the tight security implemented around the cathedral as early as seven months ago.
“The church [was] tightly secured, very secured. Troops [frisked and inspected the belongings of] every person trying to get into the premises, we are not that stupid to buy this (suicide bomber) theory,” said Eugene Non, a son of Fe Non, who died in the blast on the day he celebrated his birthday.
Roadblocks and checkpoints manned by soldiers of the Army’s 35th Infantry Battalion were erected on five roads—General Arulas Street, Buyon Street, Travesia Road, Sanchez Road and Muralla Road—which lead to the two church structures.
“For six to seven months, the church had been highly secured, soldiers had kept people out and people were not allowed even to touch the cordon,” said Fr. Romeo Saniel, OMI, apostolic administrator of the Jolo vicariate.
Tan said it was “a big question to all of us here” why a bomb got through. “No vehicle was allowed to pass in front of the cathedral. No vehicle, not even a motorbike, was allowed to park nearby,” he said.
Arthur de los Reyes, whose wife Daisy also died in the blast, said even getting inside the cathedral was difficult.
“Our bags, even our small items, were thoroughly inspected, so [we cannot accept] these recent reports that a man and woman were able to get inside with a backpack. How?” he said.How? We may never know as the integrity of the crime scene has been comprised by being left unsecured and people being allowed to walk in and out not to mention the President's photo-op.
Why are Davao Mayor Sara Duterte and Senatorial candidate Bong Go visiting the bomb site? Why are any of those people there? Instead of shuffling around the debris looking solemn and somber and out of place they should let investigators do their work.
As for failed intelligence? Well ISIS claimed the Jolo bombing and now the government is confirming that claim as well as the likelihood that suicide bombers carried out the attack. But now they also wish to link this attack with the bombing in Basilan last July because ISIS also claimed to be behind that attack. The problem is they denied those claims then.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/08/02/1838931/afp-chief-isis-not-behind-basilan-blast |
A few weeks later during a budget hearing the DND admitted ISIS was the nation's biggest threat but how serious did the DND actually take that threat if foreign terrorists affiliated with ISIS were able to conduct a suicide bombing operation in Jolo?
A lot of detritus has floated to the surface with this bombing such as the risk it poses to the BOL peace efforts and the MILF's responsibility to deal with extremism the grenade attack on a mosque in Zamboanga and an IED attack in Cotabato as well as Duterte's charge to the AFP to crush Abu Sayyaf and the resultant clashes but we will have to pass those issues by and take a look at the next event of importance which is the brazen killing of NDFP peace consultant Randy Malayao.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1079622/murder-of-peace-consultant-outrages-ndfp |
The NDFP is the umbrella group of communist-led organizations that has been representing the insurgents in the on and off peace negotiations with the government since 1986.
“In view of the murder of NDFP consultant Randy Malayao, the NDFP and all revolutionary forces within its fold are now in the process of reconsidering its policy of being open to peace negotiations with the GRP (government) under the Duterte regime,” Sison said in a statement from Utrecht in the Netherlands.
This man was shot in he face while asleep on a bus! Who did it? Who would shoot a peace consultant for the commies in the face on a bus? The PNP thinks the armed wing of the CPP, the NPA, executed him over financial irregularities.
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| http://manilastandard.net/news/national/286927/-ndf-man-killed-over-fund-misuse-.html |
Randy Felix Malayao III, the slain consultant of the National Democratic Front, was sentenced by the revolutionary justice system or kangaroo court for increasing the sum of revolutionary taxes or permit to campaign and permit to win from political aspirants in Region II, Region I and Cordillera Autonomous Region (CAR), police said.
This development belied the claim of the CPP-NPA leadership who put the blame on President Duterte and the Armed Forces of the Philippines for what they called ‘summary execution’ of leftist symphathizers like Malayao, police said.
Malayao doubled the amount of PTC and PTW to 100%, defying the Communist Party hierarchy, according to a statement from the PNP Regional Office2. Malayao was accused of pocketing the money for himself and to another ranking member of the CPP-NPA Agnes Mesina, whom Malayao eloped with lin March 2018, the PNP RO 2 said.
Malayao had collected P1 million from congressional candidates, instead of the P500,000.00 as set by the CPP-NPA, police said.
Police said that for provincial candidates instead of collecting P400,000.00, Malayao charged P800,000,00. For vice governor candidates, instead of collecting P80,000.00, Malayao asked for P160,000.00 each. For City Mayor aspirants, Malayao imposed P600,000.00 on each candidate. For vice mayoralty candidates, he charged P400,000.00.
Malayao double the amount fixed by the leadership of the CPP-NPA for his personal gains. Malayao’s PTC-PTW operations were felt by local politicians not only in Cagayan Valley but also in Region I and Cordilleras, police said.
Investigation conducted by PNP PRO2 further divulged that Malayao was questioned by his party top brass on how he managed the party funds for the whole Cagayan Valley front especially in the “Lakbayan” activities in 2017. Malayao was said to have released meager amounts and had withheld the bigger sums resulting in the failure of the CPP-NPA to achieve the targeted number of participants.
A stunning claim indeed that politicians are paying the communists double the money for the privilege of campaigning! Will the PNP disclose the names of the politicians who paid those sums? The CPP-NPA is of course denying they killed their own man in the name of revolutionary justice. And who can trust either party? Who does one trust: the violent communists or the corrupt PNP? The PNP cant even trust their own men as several officers have been relived for mishandling evidence in this case.
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According to Banac, evidence taken from the scene where NDFP peace consultant Randy Felix Malayao was killed were allegedly mishandled by investigators.
The PNP has already messed up this investigation!!
On to the third and last event which is the Supreme Court's oral arguments against the third extension of martial law. The government was given the chance to respond first so let's start with their arguments.
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/222228-philippines-reiterates-isis-threat-sc-oral-arguments-mindanao-martial-law |
The Philippine government reiterated on Tuesday, January 29, that Islamic State (ISIS) poses a significant threat to the country, and that the terror group is establishing a center in Mindanao.
“There’s really a plan of the IS to establish their control in Southeast Asia, with the Philippines as its epicenter,” Solicitor General Jose Calida told the Supreme Court (SC) on Tuesday during the oral arguments on the 3rd extension of martial law in Mindanao.
The statement came during the interpellation by the newest SC justice, Rosmari Carandang, who asked Calida to validate reports that ISIS wants to establish a center in Mindanao.
“Some of the reasons why Mindanao was chosen to be the epicenter of ISIS is because about 23 factions – I’m referring to Moros – pledged allegiance to ISIS. Probably, also the geography of Mindanao – there are many [entry points], they can easily penetrate Mindanao through Sabah, Indonesia, etc,” Calida said.
“This fight is not just about reducing them or eliminating them by military means. There is a total government approach to eliminate them, and fighting them in Mindanao requires this martial law so we can be able tor restrict the movement of armed groups from going from one place to another,” Año said.
Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, a consistent dissenter in decisions to declare and extend martial law cases, kept his interpellation unusually brief. He asked whether there exists an actual state of rebellion in Marawi City or Davao City.
Military deputy chief of staff for intelligence Major General Pablo Lorenzo said there’s no rebellion in Marawi. Calida was not confident of his answer for Davao City, which prompted Carpio to say: “You are defending martial law in all of Mindanao, but you're not sure whether there is Maute rebellion in Davao City?”There is no defence of the state of rebellion in these arguments. In fact the military says there is NO REBELLION in Marawi or Davao while the original declaration is because of rebellion in Marawi. ISIS is seeking to establish a base in the Philippines. That is a fact and it's good to hear the government finally admit this but how does that constitute rebellion? The legal definition of rebellion is as follows:
"Article 134. Rebellion or insurrection – How committed. – "the crime of rebellion or insurrection is committed by rising and taking arms against the Government for the purpose of removing from the allegiance to said Government or its laws, the territory of the Republic of the Philippines or any part thereof, of any body of land, naval or other armed forces, or depriving the Chief Executive or the Legislature, wholly or partially, of any of their powers or prerogatives."
https://lawphil.net/statutes/repacts/ra1990/ra_6968_1990.html
The imposition of martial law has specific parameters and wanting to eliminate terrorist groups is not one of those parameters. Unless we take the nebulous phrase "when the public safety requires it" to be the guiding light of this third declaration of martial law. But the government's argument has always been that rebellion persists in Mindanao, not that public safety requires it.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/01/15/1885320/calida-insists-rebellion-exists-mindanao |
Solicitor General Jose Calida insisted before the Supreme Court that President Rodrigo Duterte’s year-long extension of martial law in Mindanao has factual basis as rebellion still exists in the region.
In his comment, Calida reiterated that “[t]he issue of whether such rebellion persists had been determined by the executive department and approved by the legislative department, two of the three co-equal branches of the government.”
A state of rebellion has been determined to exist because of the approval of the martial law extension. That is very circular reasoning that assumes there is a rebellion without actually proving it or defining how the actions of the various terrorist groups constitutes rebellion. The government says they will lift martial law only under certain conditions. Actually only under ONE condition.
AFP chief Lt. Gen. Benjamin Madrigal told the court during the oral arguments that the military defines “destruction of the enemy” when they have “reduced the enemy 30 percent.”
The enemy’s capability is measured in terms of manpower, firearms, support system (such as controlled barangays) and violent incidents.
Associate Justice Francis Jardeleza asked Madrigal what it means to the military when the enemy’s capability is reduced to 30 percent.
Madrigal said that it meant that the capability was “brought down to level of law enforcement or the police can take the lead.”
When the military attains that, Madrigal said, “we would gladly recommend the lifting of martial law.”
The AFP does not want to crush the so-called rebellion they want to reduce it to a manageable level and then hand the reigns over the PNP. Let's hear from the opposition.
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| http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/01/30/kiko-pangilinan-martial-law-mindanao.html |
Senator Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan said no proof has been presented to show that martial law in Mindanao has been effective, countering Malacañang's assertion that it played a hand in preventing more bombings in the southern Philippines.
This is the gist of their entire argument. Martial law is not working. Not that there is no rebellion thus rendering Proclamation 216 moot. No arguments dealing with the constitutional requirements for martial law. If the Supreme Court wishes to abide by the strict letter of the constitution then they will rule there is no rebellion in Marawi as per the original declaration and thus no reason for the third extension of martial law which is based on the contents of Proclamation 216. But this is not the argument the so-called opposition is presenting and the Supreme Court will almost certainly rule in favour of the government and next year this same charade will play out once more.
How do all these events connect and where is it all headed? Well martial law is certainly not working but not because martial is in itself ineffective but because the AFP and PNP are not taking full advantage of martial law. There should be more checkpoints and more searching and more liberties cast aside in favour of security. That is the nature of the beast like it or not.
Where is this all headed? More bloodshed. More bungling. More of the same. Already the investigation into the slaying of an NDFP peace consultant has been botched and the blast site in Jolo has been compromised. According to eyewitnesses and outside expert sources the government is making unwarranted and premature pronouncements about Indonesian suicide bombers carrying out the attack.
ISIS has claimed to be behind this attack and everyone seems to believe it but it's kind of too late to believe them now after underestimating them and ignoring them for so long. Anyone with a bit of sense could see that more ISIS attacks were coming. I will end with an observation I wrote last August and which still holds true today.
How do all these events connect and where is it all headed? Well martial law is certainly not working but not because martial is in itself ineffective but because the AFP and PNP are not taking full advantage of martial law. There should be more checkpoints and more searching and more liberties cast aside in favour of security. That is the nature of the beast like it or not.
Where is this all headed? More bloodshed. More bungling. More of the same. Already the investigation into the slaying of an NDFP peace consultant has been botched and the blast site in Jolo has been compromised. According to eyewitnesses and outside expert sources the government is making unwarranted and premature pronouncements about Indonesian suicide bombers carrying out the attack.
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| https://globalnation.inquirer.net/172903/doubts-raised-over-claims-indonesians-behind-jolo-bombings |
Analysts have raised doubts over claims made by a senior Philippine government official that an Indonesian couple was behind the church bombings in the southern Philippines, citing a lack of evidence.
Sidney Jones, director of the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC), said on Saturday that Manila was apparently still in the dark over the identity of the bombing perpetrators.
“There’s no evidence! Different officials are saying different things — Malaysians, Yemenis, Indonesians. They actually have no clue,” told Jones told The Jakarta Post via text message on Saturday.
Fitriani of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) concurred with Sidney, saying that without evidence it was too early to conclude that Indonesians were involved in the bombings.
Also on Saturday, Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi said she was still seeking confirmation regarding the identity of the bombing perpetrators.
She said Jakarta had talked to the Philippine authorities and was told that the identity of the perpetrators had not yet been determined.
“Based on information we gathered this morning, the perpetrators have yet to be confirmed because the investigation and identification process are still ongoing,” said Retno in a video statement recorded in Padang, West Sumatra.Can the government be trusted to carry out an honest investigation of the facts? Maybe the AFP is running with the story Duterte told during his speech about a husband wife suicide team because they don't want to contradict him?
ISIS has claimed to be behind this attack and everyone seems to believe it but it's kind of too late to believe them now after underestimating them and ignoring them for so long. Anyone with a bit of sense could see that more ISIS attacks were coming. I will end with an observation I wrote last August and which still holds true today.
They should be forthright with the public and let them know that ISIS still has a footing in the country. With these kinds of denials and subsequent retractions which show an unwillingness to face reality it is certain more violence will come.
https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2018/08/martial-law-6-pnp-vs-100-npa.html
