Big news last week as the announcement of the death of the austere religious scholar at the helm of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, rocked the world.
When Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took the reins of the Islamic State of Iraq in 2010, few had heard of the organization or its new leader, an austere religious scholar with wire-frame glasses and no known aptitude for fighting and killing.
But just four years later, Mr. Baghdadi had helped transform his failing movement into one of the most notorious and successful terrorist groups of modern times. Under his guidance it would burst into the public consciousness as the Islamic State, an organization that would seize control of entire cities in Iraq and Syria and become a byword for shocking brutality.
He died Oct. 26 in northwest Syria, during a raid conducted by Special Operations forces, President Trump said in a Sunday morning news conference at the White House. Mr. Baghdadi was 48, and had run into a “dead-end tunnel” before he “ignited his vest,” killing himself and three of his children, Trump said.
Just like Osama bin Laden al-Baghdadi was buried at sea with full Islamic religious rites by US special forces and absolutely no pictures verifying his death were released. What a contrast to the Philippines which released graphic pictures of Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon and Matue leader Omar Maute verifying their deaths.
What does the death of al-Baghdadi mean for the Philippines? Experts say "para bellum." Prepare for war.
"As you know, in the Philippines itself, more than 3 dozen groups pledged allegiance to Islamic State. In Southeast Asia alone, there are more than 100 networks that pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. So it is very likely that at least some of these groups will mount revengeful attacks, or what they call retribution attacks,” said Rohan Gunaratna, professor of Security Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technology University in Singapore.
The loss of al-Baghdadi, Gunaratna said, will further decentralize ISIS and push its regional tentacles to organize on their own.
The military downplayed the threat from local terrorists, saying it “seriously doubts” there would be retaliatory attacks, according to AFP spokesperson Brigadier General Edgard Arevalo.
Although the leaders of local ISIS-linked groups will likely feel the impact of al-Baghdadi’s loss, their “rank and file” fighters probably know too little about him to get the urge to avenge his killing, said AFP Western Mindanao Command chief Lieutenant General Cirilito Sobejana.
Moreover, al-Baghdadi’s rivalry with Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was pretty much the only thing that prevented ISIS and Al Qaeda from joining forces.
"When these leaders die, the younger leaders have no problem with cooperation and collaboration,” Gunaratna said, and wiith al-Baghdadi gone, the two terror organizations will likely “come together.”
That means local ISIS-linked groups may soon join forces with Al Qaeda-linked ones. For example, Sawadjaan’s faction of the ASG might absorb the broader group led by the aging Radullan Sahiron, who rejected ISIS.
Perhaps the AFP is right on this one and there will be no retaliatory attacks to avenge the death of al-Baghdadi. After all ISIS-Core, that is the main branch, has basically left ISIS-Philippines in the lurch since their defeat at Marawi. With no officially recognised leader ISIS Philippines has been decentralised ever since October 2017. Funding has allegedly come mostly from money stolen from Marawi and not from overseas. However ISIS did use Marawi as a propaganda tool and Southeast Asia is still considered by many jihadis as another front in the global jihad.
Zachary
Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington, said the death of Baghdadi would not have any real impact on counter-terror efforts in the Philippines.
ISIS-inspired groups, such as the Abu Sayyaf Group, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, Maute group, AKP and others will continue to operate in Mindanao.
"My concern is that the southern Philippines will continue to be a draw for foreign fighters from Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, simply because ISIS has suffered such reversals in Iraq and Syria, on top of the already formidable logistical challenges of getting there," Abuza told Philstar.com.
The Washington-based security expert noted that ISIS-inspired groups in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, are very autonomous.
"The southern Philippines is the only place in Southeast Asia that pro-ISIS cells
have the ability to actually control territory, and the pro-ISIS groups there are more than welcome to take in foreign fighters,"
Abuza said.
He also noted that the central leadership of ISIS has not given priority to Southeast Asia aside from the Marawi siege in 2017.
Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore? The Philippines has actually attracted fighters from Jordan, Morocco, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. But the majority of fighters are all Filipinos. Disgruntled Filipinos who are angry at the government for destroying Marawi and for historical injustices against the Marano people. Don't forget Abu Sayyaf, the main ISIS affiliated group in the Philippines, is a spin off of the MILF which is a spin off of the MNLF all three of whose goals is an independent Islamic State consisting of the whole of Mindanao.
Rasul warned that "anti-government sentiment is high" among the displaced Maranao, and "all of those" interviewed by her organisation confirmed that there was ongoing recruitment by "extremist groups" even inside the refugee camps.
The "narrative" employed by the recruiters to convince young people to fight is as simple as pointing out their current condition, Rasul said.
"They will just say, 'Look what is happening to you. The government is not helping. In fact, they destroyed your homes, they are destroying your livelihood.'"
"The longer that this is not resolved and they are not allowed to go back, the higher the probability that they will believe in this narrative, false as it may be," Rasul added.
Rasul said that some of the young people she interviewed "see no option", and that the financial offer to fight is appealing.
A sign-up bonus could be between 20,000 to 50,000 pesos ($390 to $1,000) plus a monthly allowance - a significant monetary enticement for an impoverished family in Mindanao, Rasul said
Many of the young Maranaos also said that they had been promised that whatever happens to them, their family would continue to receive compensation.
"For them, that's showing that they are being a good son, proving their self-worth that they are doing something to help the family," Rasul said.
She said some young people at local universities are also being recruited, using the more "sophisticated" political persuasion about the plight and injustice against Maranaos.
Rebekah M Alawi, a professor on cultural studies and literature at Mindanao State University's main campus in Marawi, has also conducted interviews among the Maranaos after the siege.
She told Al Jazeera that recruitment is ongoing, not only in Marawi but also in nearby towns surrounding Lake Lanao.
Recruitment is ongoing. In fact it has never stopped.
At last count ISIS linked militants were numbered at 574. When the new Operation Pacific Eagle quarterly reported is released in the next few weeks we will get an update on that number and learn just how effective recruitment efforts and AFP operations have been. In the meantime both the PNP and the AFP remain on alert for any retaliatory attacks.
According to Sobejana, most of the leaders who pledged allegiance to ISIS—like Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon, his supposed successor Abu Dar and the Maute brothers—are already dead.
Of the Sulu-based Abu Sayyaf group, Sobejana said, only sub-leader Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan has pledged allegiance to ISIS. Senior leader Radullan Sahiron has not.
Sahiron is believed to be distancing himself from ISIS and other foreign militants in Sulu because he believes they are linked to the US Central Intelligence Agency.
Despite that, Sobejana said the military is taking preemptive measures "based on the worst-case scenario on the assumption they will conduct retaliatory attacks."
Now that is very interesting. The current senior leader of Abu Sayyaf has not pledged allegiance to ISIS because he thinks they are backed by the CIA. Would that mean the Marawi attack was a CIA plot to destabilise the Philippines as some have posited?
The terrorist siege in Marawi City is blatantly a desperate Washington try to topple the very popular (80% popularity in polls) Duterte, who successfully won the Presidency last June over a US-backed Mar Roxas, a US-educated former Wall Street banker.
Yeah, no. That is a very simplistic picture of Abu Sayyaf and Maute and their relation to ISIS and the Islamic independent movement in Mindanao. Whether ISIS is a CIA or Mossad front group their influence in the Southeast Asia will continue to be felt and fought for the foreseeable future.
Though his death will unsettle ISIS, it remains capable and dangerous, said Mr Delfin Lorenzana, Defence Secretary of the Philippines, where the group's influence has taken a hold among unschooled Muslim youth in its troubled Mindanao region.
"This is a blow to the organisation, considering Baghdadi's stature as a leader. But this is just a momentary setback, considering the depth and reach of the organisation worldwide," he said. "Somebody will take his place."
South-east Asia has long been an important focus for ISIS, which has inspired Islamist militants in West Africa, across the Middle East and Asia, and through to Indonesia and the Philippines.
The Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are concerned that ISIS supporters from the region and those fleeing Iraq and Syria could exploit the porous borders, lawlessness and abundant arms found in Mindanao to take refuge in its far-flung villages.
ISIS has claimed responsibility for four suicide bombings since July last year in the Philippines, which fought its toughest battle since World War II in 2017 when extremists seeking to establish an ISIS stronghold laid siege to Marawi City and occupied it through five months of air and ground assaults.
Compared to elsewhere in SEA ISIS is thriving in the Philippines.
Regional security experts are concerned that recent convulsions in Syria are driving a new wave of ISIS fighters into Southeast Asia, particularly into the southern Philippines, where dozens of local extremist outfits have declared fealty to the group.
As during a previous exodus of ISIS fighters from the Middle East to Southeast Asia, where militants crossed into the Philippines lightly patrolled southern reaches on the island of Mindanao, analysts believe Marawi is reemerging as an extremist epicenter.
“Marawi City has become a fertile ground for extremist recruitment,” said Rommel Banlaoi, chairman of the Manila-based Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research, a think tank.
“The Islamic State in the Philippines is continuously recruiting and is taking advantage of the frustrations of affected (Marawi-based) families and individuals.”
He said ISIS is drawing on a large pool of potential recruits in Marawi, namely the more than 100,000 residents still residing either in squalid temporary shelters or with their relatives who have not been allowed to return to rebuild or repair their homes and businesses.
ISIS recruitment is now in full swing over social media, school campuses and among remote Muslim communities, with recruiters said to be offering cash, guns and monthly allowances to lure mostly young men to their radical cause, according to various sources.
Banlaoi claims Mindanao has become a well-known safe haven for ISIS fighters fleeing the Middle East, with many recently being absorbed into local extremist groups that continue to hit Philippine security forces in hit-and-run attacks.
There are currently several ISIS-aligned groups actively operating in Mindanao, and there are violent indications they are concertedly ramping up attacks in preparation for another Marawi-like big bang assault.
They include the Abu Sayyaf Group, which operates in the island provinces of Sulu and Basilan and was instrumental in the 2017 Marawi siege.
The ISIS-aligned Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), a breakaway from the ceasefire Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) based in mainland Maguindanao province, is also a formidable force with a deep military arsenal and explosive-making expertise.
They may have a pool of 100,000 potential recruits but with less than 1,000 not many fish are biting. Perhaps foreign fighters could fill in the gap. Here is a map of ISIS-aligned groups operating in Mindanao.
That doesn't seem like much territory. Just a few provinces with only a little more than 500 members. But these few, these happy few, these band of brothers, have thrown quite a monkey wrench in the security plans of the Philippines and they won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
