Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Martial Law: ISIS Tactics

The martial law update for August 14th ended like this:
They should be forthright with the public and let them know that ISIS still has a footing in the country. With these kinds of denials and subsequent retractions which show an unwillingness to face reality it is certain more violence will come.
Sure enough more violence has come.
https://www.rappler.com/nation/210614-sultan-kudarat-explosion-august-28-2018

 Along with the violence came a swift about turn from the AFP regarding ISIS.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/210709-deadly-bombings-demonstrate-isis-tactics
“The greatest threat that we have now is really ISIS,” said Galvez during a budget hearing on Wednesday. He referred particularly to its adherents – the Maute Group and BIFF in Central Mindanao and the Abu Sayyaf Group in Western Mindanao. 
Yet, the military also constantly downplays ISIS influence here and sometimes still talks like it's dealing with a conventional threat. 
Why the mixed signals? Defense and military officials harp on the "defeat" of ISIS-inspired local armed groups in Mindanao's battlefield. They said these groups are no longer capable of mounting another large-scale siege, such as the one in Marawi last year. 
But the deadly blasts in the last 12 months happened outside the battelfields. IED attacks could be launched by individuals bombers.  
Still, Lorenzana finds a silver lining to this. “Kaya nga napakahirap hanapin kasi ang kaunti na lang nila (They’re harder to find now because there are not too many of them),” he said. 
The military also said it came close to preventing the Isulan town attack. Troops reportedly spotted and approached the alleged perpetrators based on suspicious actions, but the bombers had already planted the IED and were able to trigger it before escaping.  
Itong bomber na ito, iniwan niya ang bag sa isang lugar tapos nakita siya ng tropa. Hinabol siya. Noong hinabol siya, pumutok,” said Lorenzana on Wednesday.  
The local military had information that IED attacks would target security forces but they were expecting it in the neighboring province of Maguindanao.
A timely admission from a man who just a month ago, after the bombing in Basilan, said ISIS claiming responsibility for attacks in the Philippines is simply propaganda.
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Carlito Galvez said the IS was claiming every terror attack as part of its propaganda to gain more support. 
“They are claiming everything. Even what happened in Manila, they were claiming to have had a hand in it. They are doing it to heighten the support and to show that they are still there,” Galvez said. 
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/08/02/1838931/afp-chief-isis-not-behind-basilan-blast
AFP Chief Galvez said that on August 2nd. His admission that "the greatest threat we now have is really ISIS" came just 27 days later. Did he receive a flux of new intel during that time period to justify his about face? No. Remember the UN report dated July 27th, which means it was written well before his August 2nd denial, had this to say about the  presence of ISIS in the Philippines:
67. In the southern Philippines, the threat from terrorism persists despite losses suffered by groups linked to ISIL during the siege of Marawi City (seeS/2018/14/Rev.1, paras. 58 and 59), with remnants regrouping, reactivating training camps and recruiting, attracting hundreds of followers both inside and outside the Philippines.97 Furthermore, post-Marawi arrests of suspected foreign terrorist fighters who were not South-East Asian, some of whom travelled to the Philippines using stolen or false documents and/or broken travel routes, indicates that the southern Philippines continues to be a magnet as a destination and transit point for foreign terrorist fighters from outside the region, in part because it presents an opportunity for militants to engage in actual combat and owing to the availability of firearms.98  
71. According to Member States, ISIL affiliates in the Philippines do not lack financial resources. In addition to having received funding from the ISIL core, they secured millions of dollars by looting banks and homes in Marawi and have been using those funds to recruit, reportedly paying would-be fighters a joining fee of $300 to $400 and also providing a firearm.107
http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2018/705&referer=/english/&Lang=E
That information was given to them by the Philippine government. The AFP has known the threat of ISIS remains high yet has concealed this truth from the public. But now with two bombings both claimed by ISIS the cat is out of the bag and they are being forced to admit the truth which anyone paying attention knew anyway.

Not only did the AFP have prior information about an impending attack but the PNP did as well.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1026061/isis-owns-bomb-attack-on-sultan-kudarat-says-us-intelligence-group
Chief Insp. Ronnie Dardo, provincial police spokesperson, could not confirm if the attack was carried out by ISIS, but said they intercepted an information about a possible attack in nearby Maguindanao province from Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. 
He said two other homemade bombs were recovered and defused at the blast site.
It appears the carnage could have been much worse. 
https://www.manilatimes.net/albayalde-admits-intel-failure-in-isulan-blast/436045/
“They [police]received an information but then again, no matter how much you conduct or implement a target-hardening measure, the incident still occurred because if the criminal group is convinced [that it should]do the operation, they will find ways,” Albayalde said in Filipino on Wednesday morning. 
He clarified that only general, not specific, information had been received by police intelligence agents. 
“Based on experience, you cannot really distinguish the specific. It’s always in general terms that there is a group planning a bombing incident but you don’t know where so when you get an [intelligence information], you have to validate it,” Albayalde said. 
He vowed to strengthen their intelligence gathering and target-hardening measures especially in parts of Mindanao.
Now they are back to square one, a failure of intelligence resulting in violence and destruction again. A failure of intelligence was the mantra of the DND to explain how the Marawi siege happened. Perhaps it is time for a Senate investigation into these failures so the nation can strengthen its intel gathering efforts? How many billions are spent on intel?
The OP spent ₱2.5 billion in “confidential, intelligence, and extraordinary expenses” in 2017, according to its financial statement. 
http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2018/07/06/Duterte-office-expenses-2017-commission-on-audit.html
Billions spent on what? We will never know because the funds are strictly confidential.

With this newest bombing the alarm was raised and security tightened through Mindanao and even in Manila.
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/08/30/1847210/manila-mindanao-full-heightened-alert-after-sultan-kudarat-blast
Albayalde also said he directed the regional directors in Mindanao to be on full alert status after the deadly bombing. 
“It’s (effective) until the end of martial law,” he added.
The end of martial law? That means in perpetuity since it is likely martial law will be extended once more. What good does stricter security do when bombs continue to explode despite those measures?
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1027576/second-blast-hits-masbate-port-in-over-a-month
The blast damaged a white 25-foot fiberglass rescue speed boat of the Army, partially damaged a two-stroke engine gasoline and slightly damaged a white 25-footer rescue aluminum boat with marking “Coast Guard AB 186” near the Masbate Coast Guard office.
How was anyone able to get near to a Coast Guard boat? Where were the security guards?
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/regions/666332/second-explosion-hits-isulan-sultan-kudarat-at-least-1-killed/story/
According to Isulan Mayor Marites Pallasigue in a report by GMA News Online contributor Ferdinandh Cabrera, the second explosion happened even amid stricter security measures following the first blast last month.  
"We exhausted our very best to secure the place amidst security threats but it still happened," she said.
What does she define as "very best?" It cannot possibly be the very best since the PNP admits there were gaps in security.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1027630/pnp-admits-gaps-in-securing-sultan-kudarat-after-first-bombing
“Obviously there were gaps in the security measures or systems that was in place, especially right after the declaration of martial law, and especially right after the first bombing last August 28,” Durana said in a press briefing.
Gaps in security measures since "right after the declaration of marital law?" For a year the area has been riddled with security gaps? Just another reason the Senate needs to investigate the Marawi attack, martial law, and the whole intelligence and security apparatus in the Philippines. What is the PNP to do but fire a few people to make it look they have actually done something.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/03/18/s-kudarat-masbate-top-cops-sacked-over-bombings
Nice widow dressing but it won't stop more bombings. Especially if there have been gaps in security since day one of martial law.

A call from the President's secretary to consider extending marital law was greeted with halloos of approval ringing out loudly across the political divide.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1026033/medialdea-extending-martial-law-in-mindanao-is-an-option
“The declaration of Martial Law is the call of the executive. The President declares or extends, Congress concurs. If the President will ask for it, then it shall be given,” he said in a statement Thursday.
The President extends, Congress concurs. It's a done deal. No need to consult facts and figures. No need to investigate the situation on the ground. Just give the President what he wants. How's that for checks and balances.

Thankfully a little bit of sense later slipped into the Palace.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1026891/palace-too-early-to-talk-about-extension-of-martial-law-in-mindanao
“I think it’s premature to say because in fairness this is the second incident that we’ve had in Mindanao since martial law was declared. The first being Basilan and the second being in Isulan, so tingnan muna natin,” he said.
What does Roque mean this is the second incident since martial law was declared with the Basilan bombing being the first? The AFP has been battling ISIS affiliated BIFF, Abu Sayyaf, and Maute remnants all year long. Does this count as an incident according to Roque:
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1027062/armed-men-stormed-zambo-del-norte-village-6-killed-2-abducted
How terrifying such a situation must be for those involved. And this after the hullabaloo about the BOL bringing peace to the region! No wonder some Senators think martial law isn't exactly working.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1026802/senators-doubt-ml-brings-peace-to-mindanao
Speaker Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo told reporters she would back a request for extension from Mr. Duterte. 
“I’ll support what the President does because I’ve been President and I believe that he does not need a peanut gallery to tell him what to do,” Arroyo told reporters in Floridablanca, Pampanga, on Thursday. 
But Lacson suggested that the National Security Council and the security forces “take a hard look at their security plans and strategy, especially in the south, and try to avert the vicious cycle of talking peace with one tribal group while alienating the others.” 
Lacson noted that the MILF had become a dominant force in Mindanao after the government forged peace with the Moro National Liberation Front. 
“As it may be shaping now, as we make peace with the MILF, a breakaway group is sowing terror,” he said.
What a comment from the self-admittted peanut gallery, Gloria Arroyo. Lacson has the right idea. With the signing of the BOL the Philippine government has made peace with the MILF and the MILF only. That leaves all these groups and maybe more alienated and at war with the government:


That is 23 groups all affiliated with ISIS all fighting the government! Will they too get their own autonomous region to govern?

It really is too early to make a decision on extending martial law. Better wait until the last week of December so there is no time to discuss but only concur. And why not extend martial law and continue the never ending cycle of violence especially if it's profitable? Muslims blow up stuff, people get hurt, the nation is moved to donate money to the victims, and the local politicians or other officials steal that money.
https://www.manilatimes.net/only-26-of-p39m-in-cash-donations-for-marawi-evacuees-used-in-2017-says-audit-commission/435894/
“Records show that the City Government received cash donations from various local sources aggregating P39.7. It was noted, however, that only an amount of P10.2 or 26 percent of the total amount received was disbursed during the period, leaving an unutilized amount of P29.4 million or 74 percent as of December 31, 2017,” CoA said. 
“Considering the purpose of the cash donation which is intended for aid, relief and respond services to Marawi evacuees, the low rate of utilization of the donations defeated its purpose,” it said.
Where is the rest of the money? Who has it? What have they done with it? Just another reason to never donate to relief efforts in the Philippines. Typhoon Yolanda anyone?

With the war effort seeming set to heat up, we have heard tough rhetoric from Duterte before, big profits could be just around the corner.
Albayalde told reporters that the decision to extend the military rule in Mindanao is up to President Rodrigo Duterte, but he believes that it would good for the peace and order situation in the area. 
“That is very much high-level, it will depend on the Chief Executive […] and I’m sure he has own security advisers on that,” Albayalde said after leaving the House hearing on the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) budget. 
“Pero kung ako, wala naman kasing masamang dinudulot ang martial law doon (But if you were to ask me, the martial law has no adverse effect in the area), and I think it’s part of peace and security doon sa (in the) area, and in fact, nakakabuti siguro sa (it may be good for ) economic development sa area na iyon (in the area). Then why not?” he added.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1026151/after-bombing-albayalde-sees-nothing-wrong-with-martial-law-extension-in-mindanao
No not that. I don't mean martial law will help with economic development. As if companies will be investing in war torn Mindanao because martial law is in effect. Has any significant economic development resulted because martial law was declared last May? I mean the donations. More displaced people means more donations for officials to steal. There is also of course the profits to be made from selling the Philippines weapons needed to fight insurgents as they modernise the AFP's capabilities. China, Russia, the USA, and now Israel all stand to profit from selling weapons to the Philippines. Out there is a fortune waiting to be had and if you think they'll let it go you're mad.

Will the long promised all-out war with the Reds flare up soon?
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/08/26/1846027/duterte-threatens-stop-taking-npas-who-surrender
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1025172/duterte-orders-soldiers-kill-enemies-of-the-state
Maybe the Philippine government could make peace with the Reds and the various Islamic groups by giving them their very own autonomous region on one of the tiny islands in the SCS?

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