Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Insurgency: Philippine Government Looking for "Right Time" for Final Settlement With Reds

The secession of sovereign Philippine territory to a group fo terrorists known as the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the MILF, is going so well that Presidential Peace Advisor Galvez claims it will become a model for the world. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1190067

Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr., Office of the Presidential Adviser on Peace, Reconciliation and Unity (OPAPRU) chief, said the various normalization mechanisms of the Bangsamoro peace process will make the Philippines a model for other countries to follow.

“We (Philippines) will become the model of the world in terms of our peace process,” Galvez said in his message during the Joint Normalization Committee (JNC) meeting and assessment workshop held on Dec. 2 and was posted on the OPAPRU Facebook page on Sunday.

He said these mechanisms are helping the administration of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. in fulfilling commitments made by the national government under all signed Bangsamoro peace agreements.

Galvez also said the successful implementation of these normalization mechanisms allowed the President to make the Bangsamoro peace process as the "centerpiece" of his administration’s bid to become a member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) by 2027.

Galvez noted that these mechanisms, which are under the oversight of the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) Peace Implementing Panels, "aim to transform former Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) combatants and their families into peaceful and productive individuals, and their areas into progressive and resilient communities.

It's not clear which countries exactly will be taking the BARMM as a model. Will Russia cede Chechnya  as an act of appeasement molded on the BARMM? Doubtful. 

Remember the leader of the MILF Ebrahim Murad  is on record saying decommissioning does not mean surrender.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1162067/milfs-murad-decommissioning-is-not-surrender
“We have not given up on our struggle.” 
“We are not surrendering. Decommissioning is not tantamount to surrendering,” said Ebrahim, who is also Chief Minister of the interim Bangsamoro government. 
“I would like to emphasize that the decommissioning doesn’t mean we have given up on what we used to fight for,” Ebrahim emphasized.

What the MILF used to fight for, the reason the group broke away from the MNLF, is the formation of an independent Muslim Mindanao. Will they continue to pursue this goal? According to Murad the answer is yes. How they continue this fight remains to be seen.

This is the first time I have seen joining the UN Security Council as a goal of the Marcos administration. Has this ben kept under wraps? Why bother joining the UNSC when the Philippines clearly rejects international law by refusing to enforce the WPS ruling? 

As I have noted before with each new President the clock on the insurgency gets reset back to zero. Marcos is no exception. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1185663

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has dismantled five guerilla fronts during the first 100 days in office of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

The military likewise neutralized 310 members of the New People's Army and 58 members of local terrorist groups, and recovered some 350 firearms, AFP Public Affairs Office chief, Col. Jorry Baclor, said in a statement on Saturday.

Honestly who cares? Did Marcos dismantle these fronts? Was the AFP suddenly inspired by Marcos to dismantle these fronts? This is a 52 year insurgency at this point. Instead of looking at the small picture why not look at the whole? When Marcos is gone we will see the same kind of reporting with the next president and it will be just as asinine and unhelpful. 

In fact it is certain the Communist insurgency will continue at least for a few more years. At least until the time is right. 

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/08/22/govt-looking-for-right-time-for-final-settlement-with-reds-peace-adviser

With what he describes as successes in local peace engagement with communist rebels, the Philippine government’s peace advisor said on Wednesday he remains optimistic the world’s longest insurgency will be brought to an end “at the right time”.

Sec. Carlito Galvez, presidential adviser on peace, reconciliation, and unity, said a “non-lethal approach” implemented by the government in recent years has helped win over former members of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) - New People’s Army (NPA).

The administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also focused on amplifying localized talks as its main tool of engaging with rebels, but Galvez said they are waiting for the “perfect moment” to finally put the insurgency to a close.

“We will keep still kahit ‘yong small opening for the final settlement—political settlement—of the conflict. And we are looking for the right time for that. And hopefully the right time is really now,” Galvez told reporters at a forum in Manila.

“Even though we are engaging now massively with local peace engagement, there should be a complete termination of the conflict, and that is the political settlement. And we are waiting for the time the CPP-NPA will commit itself for very goodwill engagement with the government.”

    The peace adviser, who is a retired military general, said they will look at having a final settlement with the Reds once the government is “convinced they are sincere” in that commitment.

    Since 2019 when the Duterte administration terminated peace talks with the Reds, around 27,000 communist guerrillas have surrendered to the government, Galvez said.

      Armed confrontations, he added, have “completely diminished into negligible levels”, as police and military have been able to implement what he calls a “perpetual ceasefire.”

      It sounds like they are waiting for the CPP-NPA to complete stop fighting before they will engage in any peace talks as any other situation shows they are not sincere. Confrontations still happen so it is not right to call the current situation a perpetual ceasefire. This is the kind of dismissive attitude that always leads to trouble. 
On December 8th the AFP engaged with 5 rebels in Kalinga. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1703434/army-troops-npa-rebels-clash-in-kalinga

Army soldiers and seven alleged communist rebels clashed in Tinglayan town, Kalinga province on Thursday (December 8), the military said Friday.

Army Capt. Rigor Pamittan, chief of the military’s 5th Infantry Division Public Affairs Office, said the government troops chanced upon the rebels belonging to the Komiteng Larangang Gerilya-Abra Mountain Province Ilocos Sur during a security operation at Sitio (sub-village) Balay in Barangay (village) Tulgao West before noon.

A five-minute firefight ensued from the encounter, forcing the rebels to eventually withdraw.

Pamittan said no soldiers were wounded in the skirmish, but bloodstains were spotted at the clash site, an indication that some of the rebels could have been wounded in the firefight.

Two days later in the same province they found an abandoned arms cache. 

https://www.kalinawnews.com/50ib-pnp-recover-arms-cache-in-kalinga/

An arms cache containing several war materiel was recovered in a joint operation of the 50th Infantry Battalion and Kalinga PNP at Sitio Kalakatan, Barangay Mabaca, Balbalan, Kalinga on December 9, 2022.

The said troops acted upon the information provided by a concerned citizen on the alleged hideout of the Communist NPA terrorist believed to be members of the Weakened Komiteng Larangang Guerilla – Baggas.

Upon verification, combined troops discovered an enemy hideout that was abandoned for months based on the tracks found.

After a thorough search in the area, the combined troops located an arms cache containing one colt M16A1 rifle with four magazines, two Garand rifles with five magazine clips, one carbine rifle, three rifle grenades, 27 pieces of 7.62mm ammunition, two M203 live ammunition, one 60mm live ammunition, two sticks of Ammonium nitrate, three improvised explosive devices, electric wire, blasting cap, medical paraphernalia, NPA flag other personal belongings, and subversive documents.

The dwindling number of the KLG-Baggas may have sorted in leaving the war materiel to escape the government forces. Moreso, the sustained campaign of the Provincial Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (PTF-ELCAC) of Kalinga draws close to the dismantling of KLG-Baggas.

To recall, on December 8, troops of the 54th Infantry Battalion encountered the members of Weakened KLG Ampis in Brgy Tulgao, Tinglayan, Kalinga.

Get it? The KLG is being weakened. But on December 6th the AFP engaged he KLG in Apayo. 

https://www.kalinawnews.com/firearm-ammos-recover-after-firefight-in-apayao/

High-powered firearm owned by the members of Komiteng Larangan Guerilla North Abra were recovered after an armed encounter on December 06, 2022, in Barangay Maragat, Kabugao, Apayao.

Along with the high-powered firearm, ammunitions and subversive documents were also retrieved by the troops of the 102nd Infantry Battalion after scouring the encounter site.

Prior, troops of the 102nd Infantry Battalion conducted combat operations when the locals tipped off the presence of the terrorist group.

It should be recalled that back in August this year 2 soldiers died during an firefight in this same town and province.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1181718

Two Army soldiers died on Thursday in a running gunbattle between the soldiers and communist guerrillas in the mountains of Lenneng in Kabugao town, Apayao province, the military reported.

Captain Rigor Pamittan, 5th Infantry Division public affairs chief and spokesperson, identified the fatalities as 2nd Lt. Nasser Dimalanes of Maguindanao, and Private First Class Jaime Fontanilla Jr. of La Union.

The Army soldiers chanced upon the 30-member communist guerrillas operating along the Apayao-Abra area of the Cordillera in a combat patrol following tips from villagers that armed men have been spotted in Lenneng village.

30 NPA fighters is nothing to sneeze at nor is the death of these two soldiers. For Sec. Carlito Galvez to say that encounters "have completely diminished into negligible levels” and that there is a "perpetual ceasefire" is ridiculous propaganda belying the facts on the ground. 

Last month the AFP said they have reduced the number of active guerrilla fronts from 80 to 5. 

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/07/22/afp-active-communist-guerrilla-fronts-down-to-5
Only five communist guerrilla fronts remain active, Armed Forces of the Philippines chief of staff Lt. Gen. Bartolome Bacarro said Monday.

During the administration of former President Rodrigo Duterte, there were as many as 89 guerrilla fronts.

Bacarro said there are 19 communist guerrilla fronts that are being pursued, but these are classified as “weakened.”

“Insurgency is already in the down trend. It has reached the level na kaya na natin sila. This is a commitment we have given to the former president and to the current president,” Bacarro told reporters in Camp Aguinaldo.

He went on, “We have a thinking enemy also. For every action we do, there is always a reaction. So kailangan natin ng counteraction. But I am happy to report that out of the 89 active guerrilla fronts that we had starting 2018, right now, we have around 24 guerrilla fronts."

"But out of these 24 guerrilla fronts, only five are active. The remaining 19 are now classified as weakened.”

Most of the active communist armed groups are based in Samar and Cotabato.

The AFP chief said he expects the remaining guerrilla fronts to be dismantled “within a short period of time,” adding that communist rebels are losing relevance due to the continuous decrease of their forces.

“We are gaining traction. We are gaining a lot of accomplishments in further reducing the capabilities of the enemy, particularly insurgents. This comes in the form of manpower nila, firearms nila, resource generation, even the support they’re getting from the people and the community, medyo mababa na,” said Bacarro.

According to the AFP, there are only around 2,100 communist rebels holding arms.

If there are 19 "weakened" fronts then they are still active. Weakened does not mean dismantled. And with the AFP constantly warning about recruitment they know these "weakened" fronts could see a resurgence. Note that the estimated number of NPA fighters holding arms is 2,100. A few months ago it was a flat 2,000.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/844943/insurgents-present-manpower-no-more-than-2-000-says-military/story/

The current number of insurgents in the country is only about 2,000, a military official told lawmakers on Thursday, even as he admitted that "social ills" continue to inspire individuals to join armed anti-government struggle.

"Based on our assessment, the manpower is no more than 2,000 insurgents and approximately the same number of firearms," said Vice Admiral Rommel Anthony Reyes, deputy chief of staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, during a budget presentation at the House of Representatives.

2,100 could be said to be "about 2,000" but why would the AFP raise the estimate to 2,100 only two months later? Is this another simple mistake or something more? 

No comments:

Post a Comment