Insurgency: Leaderless

Despite the gains against the insurgency there is still an insurgency. Not only are communist rebels in the hinterlands causing trouble but there are still Islamic separatists causing trouble in Mindanao. All the while China is slowly building up its military presence and seemingly preparing for war in the WPS on islands it has built in stolen territory. Despite these threats President Marcos does not believe the Philippines should increase is defense budget. 

https://mb.com.ph/2023/01/19/beefing-up-defense-budget-not-a-ph-priority-pbbm/

President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. thought increasing the country’s defense budget was not a priority, saying there was no point in the Philippines building up its armory since the exercise of military power is not always the primary consideration in addressing national concerns.

Marcos said this after being asked by World Economic Forum (WEF) President Børge Brende if he would follow in the footsteps of Japan, which has reportedly committed to doubling its defense budget from one percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to two percent of GDP.

In response, the President said there would be an increase in the country’s defense budget but only to a certain extent.

“I think to an extent but not — because the belief is that first of all, there is no point in the Philippines building up its armory,” he said.

Marcos explained that the Philippines was not in an economic situation where it could build up to the levels that the Americans or the Chinese have.

More importantly, he believes that the solutions to current issues are not military.

“If they are going to be military, then they are not solutions because this will — it will end badly if it goes that way. It will end badly for everyone involved,” the Chief Executive said.

The President brought up the war in Ukraine as an example, saying the armed conflict has only adversely affected agriculture in many countries, including the Philippines.

“I guess it just goes to show how well-connected that is,” he said.

“If a similar situation would arise in the region, then it would be actually — I would say it would be disastrous for the rest of the world as well, not only for the region but for the rest of the world,” he added.

Marcos is right that if war came to this region it would be disastrous. Yet that is exactly what China has indicated it wants as they saber rattle over Taiwan. It would be doubly disastrous if the Philippines is not prepared for whatever may come if war were to raise its ugly head. If the defense budget is not beefed up how can the AFP continue its modernization program?

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1192619

To address challenges to the country's territorial integrity, newly-appointed Department of National Defense (DND) Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. said he fully supports the ongoing Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Modernization Program.

This is among the new DND chief's thrusts he bared during Thursday's AFP command conference in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City,

"Address the growing and significant challenges to the country's territorial integrity and sovereignty by guaranteeing full support to the modernization program, strengthening coordinative mechanisms with interagency partners, and leveraging and maximizing with the country's defense partnerships," he said.

The Horizon 3 of the AFP Modernization Program is scheduled from 2023 to 2028.

The military is supposed to acquire external defense equipment in this phase such as missile systems and multi-role fighters, among others.

Galvez also wants existing defense initiatives and efforts towards attaining the vision of a transformed defense organization that guarantees Philippine security, territorial integrity, and sovereignty.

This is aside from transforming the DND into a reliable partner in national development and a strategic partner in the region.

Galvez is also pushing for the total defeat of the communist insurgency through the dismantling of all guerrilla fronts and clearing of affected barangays, neutralizing threat groups, and supporting national and local efforts for peace.

It sounds very much like building up the Philippines' armory is a priority for new DND Chief Galvez. 

There have been a lot more surrenders in the past week. Two rebel surrenderees claim the NTF-ELCAC has crippled the NPA in Samar.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1193001

A couple who had been with the New People’s Army (NPA) for over a decade admitted Wednesday that the implementation of the whole-of-nation approach against insurgency has crippled the rebel group in Samar province.

Dino Bachicha, an NPA platoon leader who surrendered days ago, said the lack of support even from remote communities in Samar makes it harder to continue the armed rebellion.

“We noticed that since the formation of local task forces against NPA, our supporters have surrendered to the government and they stopped giving us food supplies, other resources, and information,” said 32-year-old Bachicha, a native of Can-avid, Eastern Samar.

“The past years have been boring since there was no information from our supporters about the location of government forces. We’re like lost and starved in the forest,” he added.

He joined the armed struggle when he was 16 through the persuasion of young combatants who happened to be his peers.

His common-law wife, Jennelyn Guarino, 32, a native of General MacArthur, Eastern Samar served as the NPA’s political instructor. Influenced by her rebel mother, she joined the NPA when she was 20.

“Recently, we noticed that we are becoming irrelevant even in far-flung communities. It’s hard to find recruits and fewer people listen to us in our assemblies,” Guarino said.

With their two children growing, the couple decided to surrender last week. They were among the 13 rebels presented Tuesday to members of the media by the Philippine Army.

The couple were former leaders of the NPA Eastern Visayas Regional Party Committee, sub-regional committee, Bugsok Platoon operating in the mountains of Pinabacdao, Calbiga and Basey towns in Samar province.

The rebels handed over 10 M16 rifles, two .45-caliber handguns, and one Glock 17 pistol. They also revealed the location of banned anti-personnel mines, medical paraphernalia and several ammunitions.

Isn't it interesting that these former leaders of the NPA is now parroting the AFP line about them becoming irrelevant? How convenient. 

20 activists, not NPA fighters, in Nueva Ecija have pledged loyalty to the government. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1192941

Twenty female activists in the town of General Tinio, Nueva Ecija province have returned to the fold of the law and pledged commitment to support the government.

In his report on Tuesday, Col. Richard V. Caballero, acting provincial director of the Nueva Ecija Police Provincial Office (NEPPO), said the activists were members of the Women Peasant Sector under the Alyansa ng Magbubukid sa Gitnang Luzon (AMGL)-Nueva Ecija.

Caballero said the joint police and military elements conducted a special intelligence operation at Sitio Saudi, Barangay Pias in General Tinio on Monday that resulted in the withdrawal of support of female activists from the communist terrorist organization.

He said one of the militants, who was also a member of the militant group under the Underground Mass Organization (UGMO), surrendered a .38-caliber revolver without a serial number and loaded with three live ammunition.

“The activists are now undergoing debriefing with 1st Provincial Mobile Force Company (PMFC)-NEPPO,” Caballero said in a statement.

Meanwhile, he said an internal security operation Tuesday by the same police and military units in Barangay Balaring in General Natividad town, also in Nueva Ecija resulted in the recovery of one 40mm rifle grenade, two M203 40mm, one short magazine of M-16 rifle, and 15 rounds of ammunition for caliber 5.56mm.

Surely their guaranteed benefits of job training, housing, and money are not behind. 

The AFP claims the NPA in the Eastern Visayas is now leaderless.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1193153

The remaining members of the New People’s Army (NPA) in Eastern Visayas are now “leaderless” and disorganized with the recent deaths, capture and surrender of its top leaders in the region, an official of the Philippine Army said.

Maj. Gen. Camilo Ligayo, commander of the Army’s 8th Infantry Division, said the NPA in the region is on the verge of collapse as they could not find potential leaders who would direct and make critical decisions for the group.

“They are leaderless now since no one is giving them instructions. Many of their members realized that they have been deceived,” Ligayo told reporters on Friday.

Even without a leader the NPA in the Eastern Visayas is still very active and dangerous. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1193084

Hundreds of residents were displaced while classes in three schools in Sipalay City, Negros Occidental were suspended on Thursday following two armed clashes between the Philippine Army's 15th Infantry Battalion (IB) troops and New People's Army (NPA) rebels.

2Lt. Weann Sandag, civil-military operations officer of 15IB, told the Philippine News Agency (PNA) that the first encounter took place around Wednesday noon in the hinterlands of Barangay Camalandaan, Cauayan and later in the afternoon in Purok Malipayon, Barangay San Jose, Sipalay during the pursuit operations on of around 20 rebels from the NPA's South West Front.

"We received information about the rebels' extortion activities. The army acted upon the report and we found it to be true," she added.

A soldier of 15IB was injured in the Sipalay encounter but is now out of danger while the evacuees from Purok Malipayon are still staying at the Binulig Elementary School in Barangay San Jose.

Sandag, who helps in debriefing and interviewing of affected individuals, said the evacuation site currently houses 210 persons, including children, from 53 families, based on the report of the City Social Welfare and Development Office (CSWDO).

When will the AFP stop hyping on supposed victories as if the insurgency has been defeated when that is so clearly not the case? 

It's 2023 and Lorraine Badoy is still red-tagging. On the SMNI radio network along with Quiboloy and alleged former rebel Jeffery Celiz Baguio Mayor Magalong was accused once more of working with the rebels. 

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2023/1/16/Benjamin-Magalong-slams-SMNI-owner-hosts.html

Baguio City Mayor Benjamin Magalong blasted Sonshine Media Network International (SMNI) personalities, including its owner Apollo Quiboloy, for accusing him of treason and colluding with communist insurgents.In a statement on Monday, Magalong called out controversial religious leader Quiboloy, former anti-communist task force spokesperson Lorraine Badoy, and former communist rebel Jeffrey “Ka Eric” Celiz over “unfounded accusations” made in the programs of SMNI.

“This tirade against me is unfounded and baseless and has subjected my person to needless and undeserved condemnation,” the local chief executive said.

“To be accused that I have turned my back on my lifelong commitment against the CPP/NPA (Communist Party of the Philippines/New People’s Army) is a grave insult that sweeps aside my lengthy and loyal service to the Philippines,” Magalong added.

He also warned of legal action against the three for their "habit of incessantly defaming people without an iota of evidence."

Magalong made the statement after Quiboloy "red-tagged" him, accusing the mayor of supporting the communist movement over his 2022 directive to remove tarpaulins and posters in the city directly linking local activists to the CPP, NPA, and the National Democratic Front (NDF).

In his program Spotlight, Quiboloy stated that Magalong had taken down posters criticizing the party-list groups Kabataan and Anakbayan, which the pastor said were fronts for the CPP-NPA-NDF. The party-lists have consistently refuted the claim.

"The posters showing that the Anakbayan and Kabataan party-list are CPP-NPA-NDF-inclined were removed in the city of Baguio. He stopped the activities against the Kabataan party-list... What do these say? He's an ally, he's an accomplice, he's with them," Quiboloy said.

Badoy and Celis echoed Quiboloy’s remarks on the SMNI program Laban Kasama Ang Bayan which they hosted.

Meanwhile, Magalong asserted that he had participated in anti-communist insurgency efforts and was a member of the regional branches of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC).

After graduating from the Philippine Military Academy in 1982, he recounted how he engaged in guerilla warfare against communists in Luzon and Mindanao. He said his first deployment was in Abra, where he was injured during combat operations.

As mayor of Baguio, Magalong said his support for the government remains "unflinching.”

These accusations are particularly ridiculous because Magalong has been appointed by the President to sit on a committee which will investigate all the PNP officers who have resigned.  In essence it means that the intelligence apparatus of the Philippines has failed once more. 

https://opinion.inquirer.net/160418/red-tagging-at-its-worst

The Red-tagging of Magalong by Badoy and Celiz amounts to multiple virtual accusations: that the Marcos Jr. administration has been incompetent in its intelligence work; that the police and military organizations are inept on intelligence matters because the current administration is assumed to have obtained security clearance for Magalong’s appointment; and that the Duterte administration (of which Badoy was very much a part of) was clueless for previously reposing trust in Magalong.

To be fair the police and military are indeed inept on intelligence matters. The fact that they ignored and denied the presence of ISIS and knew about but ignored the plan to take over Marawi is proof enough of that. But maybe they have not fumbled the ball this time around.