2020 is fast approaching for which means it's time for Duterte to decide whether or not he will extend martial law in Mindanao for the fourth time. Sure the legislature has to approve that decision but we all know that is merely a formality. Duterte's decision is what matters and that will of course be based on recommendations made by the AFP and PNP. As of now it appears the AFP and the PNP will both recommend for a partial martial law in Mindanao.
 |
| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/11/14/1968835/afp-eyes-keeping-parts-mindanao-under-martial-law |
Gen. Noel Clement, Armed Forces chief of staff, said Thursday that the military may recommend extending martial law in select parts of Mindanao only.
Clement visited the Western Mindanao Command (Westmincom) headquarters in Zamboanga City to assess the security situation in the southern Philippines after a recent spike of terror threats by foreign militants hiding with the Abu Sayyaf group.
He said the military has to consult stakeholders, local chief executives, and communities to see "if they still wish to continue the implementation of the martial law."
Martial law was declared over Mindanao in May 2017 in response to an attack on Marawi City by local terrorists inspired by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. Although the city was declared liberated by October of that year, martial law has remained in place because, the government said, threats posed by stragglers and by other armed groups remain.
"[R]ight now, as we see it, because of the big improvement, we might make an assessment and if ever we will recommend the lifting of the martial law [but] there might be some areas that we will continue its implementation," Clement told reporters.Big improvement? The AFP has a very bad track record at keeping gains as areas once cleared of NPA are currently infested with them. Any improvement the AFP has made might not last.
 |
| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1188803/pnp-martial-law-in-mindanao-may-not-need-4th-extension |
“Sa ngayon nakikita natin na talagang maaari na rin talagang tanggalin na ang martial law sa buong kapuluan ng Mindanao (For now, we see that the martial law in Mindanao may really be removed),” he told reporters in an interview.
Once the martial law in the region ends, state security forces will only be on high alert in Sulu province where there is still suspected presence of the Abu Sayyaf group, according to Banac.
(Aside from that, the peace and order situation in the entire Mindanao is under control and the crime volume there is really low now. The proliferation of loose firearms has been controlled and we expect that we will be able to maintain this situation in the next seasons to come.)
He said placing only select provinces in Mindanao — those that still have presence of armed groups — under martial law is still subject for study.
Banac’s remark is similar with that of Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, who said on Monday that if it was up to him, he will not recommend anymore the extension of martial law.The crime volume is low so that is an excuse to junk martial law? But LGU's and the PNP attributed the drop in crime in Mindanao to martial law.
 |
| https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1053024 |
The Philippine National Police (PNP) on Monday said crime rate in Mindanao significantly declined since martial law was implemented last year.
Citing PNP data, PNP chief, Director General Oscar Albayalde said that from the 8.79 crime rate in Mindanao in 2017, it went down to 5.92 from January to September this year.
“We can attribute that basically to the imposition of martial law. Martial law actually just strengthened the peace and order operations like the checkpoints and military operations,” Albayalde said during a press briefing.
He said most of Mindanao residents are even supportive of the martial law.
“As for us, if only we want to maintain the peace and order and if only, they want to have a peaceful plebiscite, martial law is good because it is not the Marcos-time martial law. There is no curtailing of freedom there. We only see massive checkpoints and surrender of firearms. Also, based on the feedbacks of the people, they want martial law,” the PNP chief said.Do Mindanaoans not want martial law anymore? Will crime, not terrorism but crime both petty and violent, spike if martial law is not extended? Only lifting martial law will tell. Let's hear what Lorenzana has to say.
 |
| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1188664/lorenzana-not-keen-on-new-martial-law-extension |
“If it were up to me, I will not recommend anymore the extension,” Lorenzana said on the sidelines of Monday’s sendoff ceremony at Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City for participants in the 30th Southeast Asian Games.
Martial law “has been going on for too long,” he said. Its third extension is until Dec. 31 this year.
Lorenzana said another extension would not be necessary if Congress amended the Human Security Act.
“It (amendments) would be a better arrangement,” he pointed out.
Lorenzana thinks the best way to manage the terrorism problem is to amend the Human Security Act. This has been proposed before but no action has been taken on the matter. One amendment would include the ability to hold suspected terrorists longer in order to get more info from them. Who knows if amending the security act will actually help curb terrorism.
Funny that the PNP says "the proliferation of loose firearms has been controlled and we expect that we will be able to maintain this situation in the next seasons to come" when under the nose of the AFP and the PNP terrorists were able to cache arms in Marawi for the siege and foreign fighters were able to sneak into the country. Even now foreign fighters continue to make their way to the Philippines.
Funny that the PNP says "the proliferation of loose firearms has been controlled and we expect that we will be able to maintain this situation in the next seasons to come" when under the nose of the AFP and the PNP terrorists were able to cache arms in Marawi for the siege and foreign fighters were able to sneak into the country. Even now foreign fighters continue to make their way to the Philippines.
 |
| https://www.nst.com.my/world/region/2019/11/538463/new-base-mindanao |
From home-grown threat to regional threat? It looks like the Islamic State (IS) militants from Southeast Asia, especially Malaysia and Indonesia, have made Manila nervous with intelligence reports saying they will next operate in southern Philippines.
The Philippine Star portal said the Defence Department had expressed concern that returning Malaysian and Indonesian members of IS from Syria would set up a base in Mindanao.
Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana told the portal that there’s only one Filipino who joined IS, while the rest were from other Southeast Asian countries, according to a list compiled by the intelligence community.
‘Since IS is losing ground in Syria and Iraq, foreign fighters have no choice but to return to their country of origin or move to another country.
‘It was also the assessment of anti-terror experts from Europe and the Middle East.
‘Through social media, it’s very easy for (foreign terrorists) to communicate with Filipino youth to recruit them.
‘They might transfer to Mindanao and we are always on the lookout for this.’
Manila suspected foreign terrorists making their presence felt after the recent killing of two suspected Egyptian terrorists and an Abu Sayyaf suicide bomber in Indanan, Sulu, by cooperating with local groups in Mindanao.
Professor Zachary Abuza of the National War College in Washington said IS-inspired groups would continue to operate in Mindanao.
‘My concern is that the southern Philippines will continue to be a draw for foreign fighters from Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore because IS has suffered such reversals in Iraq and Syria, on top of formidable logistical challenges of getting there.’
 |
The US government’s report on terrorism in 2018 has noted Malaysia’s continued role as a “source and transit point” for terrorist groups like the Islamic State (IS).
It also noted Malaysia’s efforts in combating terrorism through legal prosecution, border patrol, and social media monitoring.
The report, published by the US State Department yesterday, listed four terrorism-related incidents but noted that there were no IS-affiliated attacks on Malaysian soil last year.
“Although there were no IS-affiliated attacks in Malaysia in 2018, the country remained a source, transit point, and, to a significantly lesser extent, destination country for terrorist groups including IS, Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), al-Qa’ida (al-Qaeda), and Jemaah Islamiyah.
“Suspected IS supporters deported from Turkey and individuals planning to travel to the southern Philippines to support IS-affiliated groups used Malaysia as a transit point,” the report read.
In its notes on the Philippines, the report wrote that Malaysian terrorist fighters continued to use the country as a destination.
“IS affiliates active in the Philippines in 2018 included parts of the ASG, the Maute Group, Ansar al-Khalifa Philippines (AKP), and elements of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF).
“The Philippines remained a destination for foreign terrorist fighters from Indonesia and Malaysia, and a potential destination for those fleeing Syria and Iraq,” it read.
That report can be read here. It also mentions a very interesting fact about the Philippines which came up exactly once in Philippine media last year and was never mentioned again.
In 2018, the Philippines joined the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.
https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2018/#Philippines
What is the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS and what does it mean for the Philippines to be a member?
Five mutually reinforcing lines of effort to degrade and defeat ISIS were put forth at an early September 2014 meeting with NATO counterparts.
These lines of effort include:
- Providing military support to our partners;
2. Impeding the flow of foreign fighters;
3. Stopping financing and funding;
4. Addressing humanitarian crises in the region; and
5. Exposing true nature.
The U.S. emphasizes that there is a role for every country to play in degrading and defeating ISIS. Some partners are contributing to the military effort, by providing arms, equipment, training, or advice. These partners include countries in Europe and in the Middle East region that are contributing to the air campaign against ISIS targets. International contributions, however, are not solely or even primarily military contributions. The effort to degrade and ultimately defeat ISIS will require reinforcing multiple lines of effort, including preventing the flow of funds and fighters to ISIS, and exposing its true nature.
The Philippines is not a NATO member so let's dig a little deeper. From the fact sheet on the Philippines we read the following:
U.S.-Philippine relations are based on strong historical and cultural links and a shared commitment to democracy and human rights. The United States has designated the Philippines as a Major Non-NATO Ally, and there are close and abiding security ties between the two nations. The Manila Declaration signed in 2011 reaffirmed the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty as the foundation for a robust, balanced, and responsive security partnership.
The U.S. government’s goal in the Philippines is to partner with the country to become a stable and prosperous nation. The 2011 Partnership for Growth Statement of Principles reinforced a shared interest in promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth in the Philippines. U.S. assistance to the Philippines fosters broad-based economic growth; improves the health and education of Filipinos; promotes peace and security; advances democratic values, good governance, and human rights; and strengthens regional and global partnerships. Department of State, Department of Defense, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) programs in conflict-affected areas of Mindanao aim to strengthen the foundation for peace and stability in the area.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-the-philippines/
That does not tell us much. I think what being a member of this coalition ultimately means is that the Philippines will be used by the US government to meet US government goals in the area of combatting terrorism and working the global chessboard in SEA. Several African nations are also a part of this coalition but I cannot speak for them. Interesting that the goal stated here is for the Philippines to become a stable and prosperous nation. That defeats the narrative of the CIA working to undermine Philippine institutions which certain bloggers, journalists, and politicians are prone to disseminate. Or does it!??
The US is here and is not going away anytime soon. This week the US DoD released the most recent quarterly report for Operation Pacific Eagle.
 |
|
|
USINDOPACOM reported to the DoD OIG that it observed little change in the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria-East Asia’s (ISIS-EA) size, strength, capabilities, or tactics this quarter. Instead, USINDOPACOM cited the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) estimate that approximately 500 individuals constitute ISIS-EA. According to the AFP, ISIS-EA members are drawn from other Philippine militant groups, including approximately 300 from ISIS-aligned Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) elements, 85 from the Toraype faction of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), 50 from the Maute Group, and 6 from Ansar Khalifah Philippines. As in previous quarters, USINDOPACOM did not provide the DoD OIG with its own unclassified estimate of ISIS-EA’s strength. USINDOPACOM stated to the DoD OIG that it views the AFP’s numbers as its best source of unclassified information on terrorist groups in the Philippines.
USINDOPACOM stated to the DoD OIG that it did not observe any changes to ISIS-EA’s internal command and control functions or its external funding sources this quarter. ISIS-Core continued to support ISIS-EA through its media network, but this support was less than what ISIS-Core provided to other ISIS branches and networks operating worldwide. USINDOPACOM reported that ISIS-EA’s areas of operation remained static this quarter; ISIS-EA neither gained nor lost territory and continued to operate on Mindanao and in the Sulu Archipelago.
USINDOPACOM stated to the DoD OIG that ISIS-EA has the capability to conduct small-scale and suicide attacks on Jolo island and small-scale attacks in the Sulu archipelago and western Mindanao, which it has done consistently over the last 2 years. However, ISIS-EA’s lack of network cohesion, limited support from ISIS-Core, weak internal leadership, and inadequate nancing are factors that have impeded ISIS-EA’s ability to conduct activity outside its base of operations or carry out large-scale attacks. USINDOPACOM previously defined “large-scale” attacks as having a casualty toll of more than 100 and cited the 2002 Bali, Indonesia, bombings as an example.
The US defers to the AFP and says there are only 500 ISIS affiliated members in the Philippines and they also say the situation remains stable. ISIS-EA can only conduct small-scale attacks at the moment. A suicide bombing here and there. These numbers are down from last quarter.
Where will these groups end up? The reason they came into existence was as part of the independence movement. But now the MILF is in control and even they split from the MNLF to fight for complete independence rather than limited autonomy. The first muslim independence group to be formed was the MNLF and now after the failure of the ARMM and the Zamboanga siege they are back at the negotiating table.
In response to a question from the DoD OIG about the strength of the various ISIS-EA factions, USINDOPACOM cited figures from an AFP assessment that put the total strength of ISIS-EA at 574 fighters, including 424 members of the ASG; 85 members of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters-Esmael faction; 59 members of the Maute Group; and 6 members of the Ansar Khalifa Philippines faction.
https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2019/08/martial-law-wake-up.htmlFrom 424 ASG to 300, 85 BIFF remains the same, an increase from 50 to 59 Maute members, Ansar Kahlifa remains stable at 6. Last quarter there were an estimated 574 IS members and this quarter there are an estimated 441. That is a decrease of 133 militants.
Where will these groups end up? The reason they came into existence was as part of the independence movement. But now the MILF is in control and even they split from the MNLF to fight for complete independence rather than limited autonomy. The first muslim independence group to be formed was the MNLF and now after the failure of the ARMM and the Zamboanga siege they are back at the negotiating table.
 |
| https://www.nst.com.my/world/region/2019/11/538421/duterte-misuari-target-foreign-militants-peace-southern-philippines |
INTENSIFYING campaign against local and foreign terrorists in Southern Philippines will be the main objective when President Rodrigo Duterte and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) founding Chairman, Nur Misuari, meet next month.
This comes after officials raised concerns about foreign militants making Mindanao their base of operations.
Duterte and Misuari mostly hope to finalize the peace talks between the government and the rebel group, said The Manila Times, quoting Malacañang announcement.
One of the move to achieve the objective is by creating a coordinating body between the two sides, said government spokesman, Salvador Panelo, after Duterte and Misuari met in Malacanang early this week.
"They agreed to meet again because there’s a suggestion that there should be a committee that will help in the peace process.
“So, there will be a meeting in Davao by December to finalize (the talks). The purpose of course is to have peace with the MNLF and to ensure the success of the government,” he added.
MNLF forged a peace pact with the national government in 1996 that saw the establishment of the now-defunct Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). Misuari was governor then.
However, the ARMM was replaced by the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), following the ratification of the Bangsamoro Organic Law anchored on the peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a splinter group from the MNLF that broke away several years before the 1996 peace deal.
Misuari are remembered by many for two sieges by MNLF in Zamboanga. In 2013, MNLF declared independence but failed in the attempt to raise the Bangsamoro Republik flag at City Hall.
