Martial Law: Lifting of Martial Law

Duterte has said he will rely on the recommendations of the PNP, AFP, and DND on whether to renew the martial law extension or not. Last month the PNP, DND, and AFP all said they would not issue such a recommendation and they seem to be sticking to that decision.

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/8/20/Defense-chief-recommends-non-extension-of-Mindanao-martial-law.html

Defense Secretary Delfin said on Wednesday he has recommended to President Rodrigo Duterte to no longer extend martial law in Mindanao beyond this year. 

“Yes, confirmed. No extension,” said Lorenzana in a phone message to CNN Philippines, without giving details. 

In a statement, Lorenzana said the purpose of martial law has been accomplished. 

"Our security forces have determined that the purpose of implementing martial law has been attained and the prevailing conditions in the whole of Mindanao Island as well as the Islands of Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-tawi have greatly improved since the defeat of the Maute fighters in October 2017," said the Defense chief. 

He added, "The AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) believes that the Maute group and other threat groups can no longer launch a Marawi-type attack as their forces and capabilities have significantly dwindled." 

Meanwhile, the Philippine National Police (PNP) also confirmed that it has sent its recommendation to the Department of National Defense and the Department of Interior and Local Government to lift the martial law soon. 

"The PNP confirms its recommendation submitted to the Department of National Defense and the Department of Interior and Local Government, and concurs with the AFP assessment, for the lifting of martial law and that it may no longer be extended beyond the authorized period," said PNP Spokesperson PBGen. Bernard Banac in a statement.

Some would say the purpose of martial law ran out long ago as soon as Marawi was liberated. It maybe that no group could launch an attack on the scale of Marawi but they are still capable of doing a lot of damage.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1197288/t1204minbreak1

According to military intelligence, the BIFF has been plotting to distribute these powerful bombs along Maguindanao roads regularly used by the military and in populated areas of Cotabato, Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat provinces. 

“These terrorists are using IEDs that pose grave dangers to our troops in a desperate attempt to overpower our soldiers,” said Carreon.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1198380/govt-troops-find-more-bombs-in-maguindanao

Government troops found six more powerful improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Maguindanao Wednesday as the military intensified its offensive against Islamic State-linked militants. 

The total number of IEDs recovered since the operations began on Nov. 24 is now 20. Earlier, soldiers found 14 IEDs in various hideouts of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1088160

Government troops belonging to the Army’s 1st Mechanized Infantry Battalion (MIB) recovered on Friday war materiel from fleeing Islamic State-inspired Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Shariff Aguak, Maguindanao. 

Among the weapons recovered were one 40-mm. grenade launcher, one 60-mm. mortar tube launcher, black powder, and metal grindings used to manufacture improvised bombs. 

“Our troopers are continuously scouring Sitio Maybunga for more homemade bombs left behind by the fleeing terror group,” Carreon said.

The BIFF and the AFP have been clashing which has led to the displacement of 40,000 people.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1197745/40000-flee-as-clashes-rage-in-maguindanao

Close to 40,000 residents have been displaced by the ongoing clashes between government forces and members of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao province, social welfare officials said on Tuesday. 

Emma Ali, Maguindanao provincial social welfare chief, said the number of internally displaced persons had reached 38,235 and was still rising in evacuation centers. Some of them had taken refuge in homes of their relatives. 

Ali said Shariff Saydona Mustapha town in Maguindanao posted the highest number of evacuees at 3,668 families, followed by Datu Saudi Ampatuan town, 2,021; and Shariff Aguak town, 1,958. 

“The number of evacuees rises and falls every now and then, depending on what happens overnight,” Ali said. At one point, the number rose to 48,000 since the fighting between government troops and the BIFF rebels broke out on Nov. 24. 

“When there are explosions and shelling at night, people move to safer grounds,” Ali said. “That explains why people in conflict areas have their valuables ready in tricycles or carabao-drawn carts for quick movement.”

It appears Maguindano province is under siege. BIFF certainly poses a major threat. If they ever got a chance to set off any of those IED's scores could end up dead. It is a good thing that the AFP continues to go after them but perhaps there should be a limited martial in Sulu and Eastern Mindanao which is where all the terrorism is happening? This was discussed earlier but now it appears that a wholesale lifting of martial law in Mindanao is what will be recommended to Duterte. Former AFP Chief, now DILG Secretary, Año has different reasons that Lorezana for recommending no more martial law.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1198403/fwd-dilg-chief-end-of-martial-law-to-benefit-mindanaos-economy

Año said the windup of martial law in Mindanao will benefit the economy in the South, bringing with it more local and foreign investments and increase tourist arrivals in the region. 

“We believe that the lifting of martial law will be advantageous to the economy as it will signal the full return to normalcy and the end to perceived security risks of investing and travelling to Mindanao,” he said in a statement. 

According to Año, the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) agrees with Lorenzana that the purpose of martial law in Mindanao has already been attained based on the assessment of the police and the military. 

He said “normalcy has returned” to entire Mindanao, and the peace and order situation in the area has “remarkably improved” compared to when martial law was declared in 2017 at the height of the Marawi siege.

Año thinks marital law should be lifted as it will a boon for the economy and for tourism. Interesting that he says lifting martial law "will signal the full return to normalcy and the end to perceived security risks of investing and travelling to Mindanao." Perceived risks? He sounds like the Becoming Filipino guy. The risks of travelling to Mindanao are very real with tourists being captured by Abu Sayyaf which is exactly what happened in October with a British man and his wife in Zamboanga. Kidnapping remains a risk in Mindanao. 

And what is normalcy? Terrorist groups are still running around getting into firefights with the AFP. I suppose that is normal.  It has been normal since the 70s. Who can define what normal is for the Philippines anyway but if Año thinks lifting of martial law will end "perceived security risks" and that those risks are not actually ended then perhaps martial law should still be in place in at least certain areas.

Don't forget the NPA is also still very active in Mindanao. What's to be done about them?  How about opening peace talks again?

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/12/5/duterte-to-send-bello-to-speak-to-joma-sison.html

The President revealed that he will be sending former government chief negotiator and Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello to speak with Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founder Joma Sison, without elaborating on what they are expected to discuss. 

President Rodrigo Duterte said he has not yet given up hope on reopening negotiations with Sison even after terminating the talks and the services of its peace panel -- including Bello as negotiator -- in March this year. 

"This is the first time that I will reveal it, I'm sending Secretary Bello... He should go there, talk to them...basta I'm sending him back to Sison and talk to him about...malaman ninyo 'yan pagdating ng panahon (you will know when the time is right)," he said Thursday during a situational briefing on the effects of typhoon Tisoy. 

He said this after lamenting the long-standing insurgency problem in the country. 

"Three times we attempted to talk sense dito (to them) and it has always failed...I cannot stop. Hindi ko sabihin na ayaw ko makipag-usap (I cannot say I do not want to talk), that is not a statement of a leader, of a President," he argued.

Mysterious Duterte won't tell us exactly why he is sending Bello to speak with Sison. Probably peace talks.  Maybe about coming back to the Philippines to face trial. Who knows? The AFP says the meeting will be about peace talks and they are supportive of this move to resurrect the peace talks again.

https://www.untvweb.com/news/afp-supports-possible-talks-with-cpp/

“We understand that those instructions to Sec. Bello are in the nature of exploratory discussion with Mr. Sison and are meant towards the attainment of sustainable peace which is the President’s and also the AFP’s ultimate desire,” Arevalo said in a statement. 

Arevalo also reiterates that “if we are to negotiate, therefore, we so do from the position of strength.”

Why negotiate in the first place? They know what the CPP wants.  They want the Comprehensive Agreement on Social and Economic Reforms (CASER) to be implemented and that is simply impossible.

Same goes for Dutere's upcoming tete-a-tete with MNLF leader Nur Misuari. Why negotiate with this man?

https://mindanaoexaminer.com/misuari-to-meet-again-with-duterte-to-talk-peace/

FORMER REBEL chieftain Nur Misuari is set to meet with President Rodrigo Duterte to discuss the resumption of peace talks with the former rebel group Moro National Liberation Front in Davao City. 

Misuari has previously met with Duterte, his long-time friend and political ally, in Malacañang Palace in Manila where they discussed the creation of a coordinating committee between the MNLF and the national government. 

Duterte previously told the former Libyan firebrand that he ordered Presidential peace adviser Carlito Galvez to immediately form a coordinating committee between the Government of the Philippines (GPH) and the MNLF, and to convene and set the agenda for discussions. 

Misuari has also asked Duterte to include the influential Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in the peace talks after the influential body played a vital role in the peace process between the Philippine government and MNLF. 

The coordinating committee will serve as a venue to seek for the cooperation of the MNLF to achieve immediate peace in Sulu province by, among others, helping in combating the Abu Sayyaf militants and to convincing MNLF relatives to return to the folds of the law. 

Presidential Spokesman Salvador Panelo said Duterte will walk the extra mile to bring harmony to the country and the nation. “In resolving the Muslim rebellion in Mindanao, every undertaking that may lead to a lasting peace and prosperity to that region must be tried and tested until its fruition. We can do no less as a people,” he said. 

Misuari signed a peace deal with Manila in September 1996 ending decades of bloody war. After the peace agreement was signed, Misuari became the governor of the Muslim autonomous region. But despite the peace accord, there was a widespread disillusionment with the weak autonomy they were granted. 

Under the peace accord, Manila would have to provide a mini-Marshal Plan to spur economic development in Muslim areas in Mindanao, and livelihood and housing assistance to tens of thousands of former rebels to uplift their poor living standards. 

In 2001, Misuari’s loyal forces and former rebels, who joined the military and police following the signing of the peace deal, attacked a key army base in Sulu’s Jolo town and civilian targets in Zamboanga in an effort to stop the government from calling an election in the Muslim autonomous region where Misuari wanted to be a perpetual governor. 

He then escaped by boat to Malaysia where he had been arrested and deported to the Philippines and was eventually pardoned and released by then President Gloria Arroyo in exchange for MNLF support to her election bid, as well as her allies in the Senate and Congress in 2004. 

And in September 2013, MNLF members attacked Zamboanga City for the second time, sparking fierce clashes that lasted for weeks, and left hundreds of people dead and wounded, and displaced over 300,000 civilians. Many of the raiders were killed, but the others managed to escape following the failed rebellion. 

Misuari, who is accused of rebellion by authorities for the deadly attacks, is being protected from arrest by Duterte, who interceded to the police and military on behalf of the former rebel chieftain so he would be free to move around without any fear of being arrested. 

Misuari is also facing graft charges at the Sandigan Bayan over the alleged anomalous purchase of education materials when he was governor of the defunct Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. He denied all criminal and graft accusations against him. 

Despite all these charges against Misuari, the OIC continues to support him. And in 2017, the OIC Secretary General, Dr. Youssef Al Othaimeen, in support of the peace process, even convened the 4th Session of the Bangsamoro Coordination Forum in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire on the margins of the 44th Session of the Council of Foreign sMinisters. 

The OIC said it continues to deal with the MNLF through the Jeddah formula. The meeting discussed the prospects of the peace process under the Duterte administration and is part of the efforts of the OIC to close ranks between the MNLF and MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front which also signed a peace accord with Manila in 2014) and to help in the process of merging the two peace tracks and to consolidate realization of the inalienable rights of the Muslim minority in southern Philippines for a peaceful, just and durable settlement of their problem. 

The OIC Council of Foreign Ministers also reaffirmed the importance of unity within the MNLF and the Jeddah formula.

The story of Nur Misuari is conveniently compressed into the paragraphs above which is why the article has been quoted in full.  This man is a bona fide terrorist who was able to get the Philippine government to agree to give him and his men, the MNLF, control over a large chunk of Mindanao known as the ARMM. Not satisfied with this he continued his terrorist activities after a further peace deal was signed in 2001 because he wanted to be president of the ARMM for life. Then President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo pardoned him in exchange for votes from the MNLF. In 2013 he attacked Zamboanga but his arrest was suspended by the court and he has been out walking freely around the country ever since. He even travelled overseas to attend events with the OIC last year. Duterte has met with him in the Palace twice.

Now Duterte is considering giving Misuari the whole of Sulu province in order to placate him. Like all those surrendering NPA fighters the only place Misuari belongs is in prison.