Martial Law: Backchannel Talks

Peace talks with the Communist Party of the Philippines.  Why even bother?  The goal of the CPP-NPA is the literal overthrow of the legitimate Philippine government.

They also refuse to be true to any cease fire.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/986018/military-tags-npa-in-torching-of-construction-equipment-in-misocc

This is NOT the first time the NPA has torched construction equipment. It's like these progressives are anti-progressive. Duterte doesn't care. At least that is his public persona. We must always remember that Duterte's public face is just that, a face. Whatever his real intentions are he does not always betray. For now his public face is saying "let's have peace talks" while with his other public face he is saying "let the terrorist designation for the CPP remain." CPP leader Joma Sisson is not buying Duterte's overtures to welcome him back to the country.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/984718/joma-to-duterte-thanks-for-invite-but

“If I return to the Philippines prematurely, I expose not only myself but also the entire peace process to extremely high risks of violent sabotage and termination by spoilers who are out to terminate the peace process once and for all,” Sison said. 

The President on Saturday urged Sison to come home for the resumption of the peace talks that the President terminated in November last year.

If he returns? Joma Sisson will NEVER return to the Philippines! Why would he? He is living the high life in the Netherlands. He doesn't need to be here anyway because the negotiations are being handled by other CPP officials.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/04/25/1809114/government-holds-backchannel-talks-reds

“Actually there have been (backchannel) talks already with them (NDF). So we expect formal talks to start anytime now. That is the purpose of the backchannel,” Bello said yesterday.

Juliet de Lima, member of the NDF peace negotiating panel, underscored the importance of the Comprehensive Agreement on Social and Economic Reforms (CASER) for achieving a just and lasting peace.  

De Lima said CASER would be the key to solving the root causes of the armed conflict – poverty, unemployment, backwardness and underdevelopment. De Lima emphasized the forging of the CASER has been proven to be the most difficult, since its core consists of implementing genuine land reform and free distribution of land to the landless, rural development and national industrialization.

What is meant by backchannel talks? The Duterte administration literally released imprisoned members of the NDF in order to facilitate the peace talks. Those men and women are the channels of negotiation. So why the secrecy? Who are they talking to if not the men they have already released?

The Comprehensive Agreement on Social and Economic Reforms (CASER) can be read here:

https://ndfp.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/FINAL-Jan-17-2018-NDFP-CASER-2017-Web-version-Ver2.0.pdf

This document is 173 pages of broad and general calls for reform in industry, culture, agriculture, and other areas of the government and Philippine life. The one thing lacking is there are no methods of implementing these reforms. There is nothing exact. It's as vague as the term "social and economic reform." After listing the various reforms sought for a particular area there is a schedule of implementation like the following:

Section 1. The Parties shall create a mechanism to ensure that the Agreement on Financial, Monetary and Fiscal Policies (FMF) is respected and effectively implemented. 

Section 4. The Parties shall, within three (3) months from signing this Agreement, agree on the composition, functions, mechanics and logistics of the JMC-FMF and on the implementation schedule and work plan containing the dates and time frame for undertaking their respective commitments under the Agreement on FMF.

These terms are too vague and the time frame for designing a method of implementation, 3 months for each section, is too short. The danger in signing such an over broad agreement is that the CPP will undoubtedly accuse the government of not keeping it's word when all these reforms are not implemented due to disagreement on the methods of implementation. These are not reforms that can happen over night or in 3 months. The CPP is not taking into account the slow nature of government especially the corrupt Philippine government.

There are a lot of items in the CASER to consider. There is no way 60 days, the timeframe given by Duterte for the new peace talks, is enough time to analyse this document properly and make sure everyone is agreed to what the proposed reforms mean.

Also to be noted is that right in the introduction, written by Joma Sisson, is the claim that the Duterte administration is not sincere when it comes to real social and economic reforms.

Eventually, the Duterte regime has exposed itself fully as having no interest in basic reforms to address the roots of the civil war in the Philippines. It regards the peace negotiations only as a narrow GRP scheme to obtain the surrender and pacification of the revolutionary forces and people through an inde nite bilateral cease re.

If Duterte does not think the CPP is sincere and if Sisson thinks Duterte is not sincere then what good are talks going to accomplish?

To make matters worse the Duterte administration is claiming that the majority of NPA members are lumads.

http://usa.inquirer.net/11887/dureza-extremists-incubating-mindanao-75-npas-lumads

Indigenous peoples or the lumadscontinue to bear the brunt of conflicts, with 75% of armed NPAs now consisting of lumads, the presidential peace adviser alleged. 

“Ang areas ng mga NPA nasa ancestral areas, mga indigenous people natin, doon sila ngayon naglulungga[NPAs hide in ancestral domains, with our indigenous peoples] and these are areas that are very deprived or very poor areas. [That’s why] 75% of the armed NPAs all over the country are indigenous peoples or lumads sa atin,” Dureza said.

From where do they get this figure? Despite Duterte's past assertions that he would provide the lumads with livelihood and ancestral domain assistance it appears that now the administration is demonising these people. Such an accusation makes one understand more why the list of 500 NPA terrorists included a UN rapporteur on indigenous people. Perhaps the government thinks it is she who is radicalising the lumads if in fact such a thing is even happening. When will they be releasing the information on that list?

The speech Dureza gave at a Fil-Am community forum in New York has quite a few interesting bits of information about extremism in Mindanao.

“If you ask Mindanaoans if they are happy with martial law, yes, they are. You ask those who are not from Mindanao, they are a little doubtful,” Dureza said. “You have to come from the area to know the situation, to be able to understand it… Even under martial law, the soldiers cannot violate their rights, cannot just suspend their rights.” 

It is not known to many, but the Maranaos never thought they would become victims of violent extremists. According to Dureza, they were surprised to learn that many were members of their own clans. They also knew about firearms being stocked up, but when evacuees were asked why they didn’t speak up about it, their reply: “Sir, akala namin, kapwa Muslim hindi kami bibiktimahin[we thought they would spare us because we are Muslims too].” 

He also cited the lack of economic opportunities in the Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao, which is the poorest area in the country, as the root of unrest that reared its head in the Marawi conflict.

Mindanao is a very violent region and martial law has curbed much of that violence so no wonder Mindanaoans are happy with martial law.  But what happens when martial law finally ends? Will crime rise once more?  Will Davao be the murder and rape capital it was in years past?

Maranos knew about firearms being stockpiled? I am shocked! They thought they would be spared because they too are Muslims? Now I am so shocked my head has exploded! Just more facts to throw in the ever growing pile labelled "Prior Knowledge of the Marawi Attack." If ordinary Maranos knew then it's a guarantee that politicians knew. Will there ever be a proper Senate investigation into the Marawi attack?

The Marawi conflict was a bid to establish an Islamic State. It didn't happen because people were bored with no work to do. That the government can't figure out this is a religious war is amazing. ISIS admits their goals and no one wants to listen. Even the Maranos admit they thought they were safe because they too are Muslims!

Whether or not the lifting of martial law will mean an increase in crime officials in Davao are determined to prevent any terrorist attacks from happening the city.

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1611535/Davao/Local-News/TF-Davao-told-to-aim-for-zero-terror-attack-in-next-decade

(My biggest challenge for Task Force Davao is 10 years and even more years of zero incident here in Davao.) 

The task force was activated in 2003 following the twin bombing incidents at the Davao airport and Sasa Wharf. Duterte-Carpio said over the years, TFD has become a source of pride for Dabawenyos.

“Task Force Davao continuous to live by its mandate by securing Davao City from terrorist threats and supporting its duly constituted authorities in all its development programs to all Dabawenyos,” he said.

Since the formation of Task Force Davao in 2003 there have been numerous bombings as well as NPA terror attacks in Davao including attacks on 14 February 2005, 24 July 2008, 1 September 2008, 15 March 2010, 17 September 2013, 2 September 2016, and 9 December 2017.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_Philippines

That is an average of 2-3 years between attacks. With the NPA thrown in the attacks become more frequent. Just last year Mayor Sara Duterte condemned the NPA for acts of terrorism in the city.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/168333-sara-duterte-npa-attacks-davao-city-acts-terrorism

Why government officials continue to applaud themselves and the military and police for the way they handle terrorism is a mystery since terrorism continues unabated throughout the country. Sara Duterte's challenge to have Davao free of terror incidents for a decade and more will go unfulfilled as long as the NPA, MILF, MNLF, BIFF, Maute, and Abu Sayyaf are freely operating.

President Duterte met with the Prime Minister of Vietnam in Singapore this week and one of the issues discussed was Vietnamese sailors held hostage by Abu Sayyaf.

http://www.canadianinquirer.net/2018/04/28/duterte-assures-nguyen-to-catch-asg-for-kidnap-of-vietnamese-sailors/

President Rodrigo R. Duterte has promised Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc that he will not stop until he gets rid of the Abu Sayyaf Group for the abduction of Vietnamese sailors in 2016. 

“His promise was he did not stop until he gets rid of and curbs those Abu Sayyaf bandits,” Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said.

Do you think the Vietnamese Prime Minister knows Duterte's plan to "get rid of" and curb "those Abu Sayyaf bandits" is to encourage them to surrender by giving surrenderees free housing and money and job training?