Martial law 2019 has barely gotten underway and already the DND has admitted defeat in the war against the insurgency.
“We cannot do it (end insurgency) this year because that is a big problem,” Lorenzana said on the sidelines of Tuesday’s joint Department of National Defense-AFP new year’s call in Camp Aguinaldo, pointing out that the communist insurgency has been festering for the last 50 years.
“We cannot end it in one year. But if our target would be the remaining three years of President Duterte’s presidency, we can probably do it,” he added.
Even as Lorenzana disputed the feasibility of the AFP’s 2019 target, he assured the public that it was “attainable” in a few years, explaining that localized peace talks and the implementation of the Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program, or E-CLIP, had been working to convince droves of New People’s Army (NPA) fighters to surrender.
The defense secretary placed the current NPA strength at approximately 4,000 regular members, while its militia and underground movement, at some 50,000 members.
“We have to move [the 2019 deadline] because it is not yet attainable. There are still too many things to handle,” Lorenzana said.
Did the DND not know the insurgency "is a big problem" last year when they announced the NPA would be defeated by the 2nd quarter of 2019? Why would the DND crow about the imminent defat of the NPA but then suddenly reverse course and claim they could do it in three years time? Is this a backhanded way of setting up martial law for the next three years?
It is important to note that the DND does not want to defeat the insurgency. They don't want to crush it and blast it to smithereens.
"The DND fully supports the President’s decision not to employ a purely military solution to ending the communist insurgency in the country," Lorenzana said in a statement forwarded to reporters at 9:54 p.m. Friday.
This, he said, is emphasized by the national government's initiative to work closely with the local government units in pursuing localized peace talks, community support and development, and promotion of good governance, all aimed at neutralizing the insurgency threat.
This also includes the implementation of the Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Programs or E-CLIP, which helps former rebels start their lives anew by providing financial, livelihood, and educational assistance, psychosocial support, and housing, the defense chief added.
"While focused military actions will weaken their armed component, it is the promise of a better life for their families that drives their members to return to civil society and the fold of the law," Lorenzana added.
The DND chief also said that the government has the momentum, support and resources to render the Communist Party of the Philippines - New People's Army - National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF) strategically and politically irrelevant by 2022.
"By the end of President Rodrigo Duterte’s term, the NPA will be reduced into a purely police problem of running after robbers, criminals, arsonists, and extortionists," he said.
Instead the DND is hoping to merely reduce the insurgency to a "police problem" via peace talks and the E-CLIP program which gives a financial incentive for surrendering.
(Just surrender. I'll provide you with land, I'll start with land reform then housing. And for the meantime that you are finding a way to earn a living, I'll let TESDA enter with livelihood programs, then DSWD for the ways they can help)," Duterte said in a speech at the launching of the Negosyo Serbisyo sa Barangay in Masbate on Wednesday.
The President said the government has enough money to fund the livelihood and housing programs for the rebel surrenderers, as he urged them to yield at the earliest time possible.
The government has enough money to fund the livelihood of surrendering rebels but has to borrow money for infrastructure projects? We can only take Duterte's words at face value or not even then. One moment he urges rebels to surrender and the next he says bombing them would be so much easier.
President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday said things would have been easier for the government if it could just drop bombs in lairs of communist rebels, as he urged members of the New People’s Army to just surrender and return to the fold of the law.
In a speech in Masbate, Duterte said drone technology provided by allies like Israel and the United States have made it easy to spot communist camps.
He said bombing communist lairs would have easily solved the insurgency problem in the country but he decided against it to spare innocent civilians.
If the targeted dropping of bombs is a problem then why not send in the AFP to the camps that are found? That would reduce collateral deaths. It's hard to see where he draws the line about not wanting violence and threatening more violence. Remember during his early days he
vowed he would not kill NPA members because they are fighting for an ideology so they aren't criminals. Now he is all for arming everyone in the country to fight the NPA as well as giving free housing and jobs to those who surrender.
“I’m telling the NPA, I do not want to arm the people. But if you continue doing that, I will allow the purchase of individual firearm. Even the mayors, I will give them firearms. I have no choice,” he said.
But he said if the rebels would “tone down” with their violent activities, he would be willing to go back to peace negotiations.
“But if they can tone down, no ambush, no killing of my policemen and my military, we can talk,” he said.
War and peace and war and peace. The cycle continues. Sad how the year has just begun and already predictions one and four of my
predictions for martial law in 2019 have already been fulfilled. But as
Bob Dylan sang, "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."
The wind is blowing in the DOJ alright and it smells like the fetid miasma which hovers over the polluted waters of Manila Bay.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) has removed about 600 individuals and groups from a list of “terrorists” in a petition it filed last year to declare the Communist Party of the Philippines and its armed wing, the New People’s Army (NPA), as “terrorist and outlawed organizations.”
In an amended petition it submitted to the Manila Regional Trial Court (RTC) Branch 19 on Jan. 3, the DOJ kept on its terrorist list CPP founding chair Jose Maria Sison, alleged NPA National Operations Command chief Jorge Madlos, alleged NPA southern Luzon commander Jaime Padilla and alleged CPP Visayas Commission head Francisco Fernandez.
Also included on the much shorter list were alleged Visayas CPP deputy secretary Cleofe Lagtapon, alleged CPP Mindanao Commission secretary Antonio Cabanatan and alleged Mindanao NPA leaders Leonido Nabong and Myrna Sularte.
Remember last year when the DOJ first complied and submitted this petition? Remember all the outrage from various groups and fear from individuals that they would be targeted? Remember how the DOJ slowly whittled the list down? Now 600 people are being taken off the list. That is practically everyone on the whole list! Only eight people are left! From over 600 to just 8!
Malacañang and the Justice department have yet to confirm the existence of such a list.
Well now we know not only does this list exist but it is all bunk! What else are we being told is nothing but bunk? How about MILF disarmament if the BOL is fully enforced?
“The MILF’s BIAF is ready to provide even a battalion of fighters to help secure the peripheries of Cotabato City should the proper government agencies request for augmentation,” he told the Inquirer by telephone.
What would be the proper government agency to make such a request? The DND? The President himself? The difference between a private army and the MILF is that the MILF is an Islamic terrorist group. If the BOL passes they will be am Islamic terrorist group with their very own nation. Why should they disband their army as they have promised? It doesn't make any sense. And don't forget, never forget, the BOL is a part of the peace agreement with the MILF and has nothing to do with the Bangsomoro people. It is specifically part of the agreement with the MILF which means it benefits primarily the MILF which is why the
MILF will be running the transition government until 2022. After that they will inevitably run the government through their own political party.
The BOL is a key component of the 2014 final peace deal between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) after decades of conflict in Mindanao that claimed more than 120,000 lives.
The Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), which broke away from the MILF, could also pose a threat to the planned plebiscite.
“Although they (BIFF) only have a few men, they are still a problem,” Lorenzana said.
He said the ratification of the BOL would install new leaders from the ranks of the MILF.
“Hopefully, they can help us police the area so that we can eradicate once and for all the terrorist Dawla Islamiya, BIFF and Maute group,” he said.
It's all laid out right here. Nothing is being hid but who's paying attention? The BOL is a key component of the 2014 peace deal and will install new leaders from the ranks of the MILF. Lorenzana hopes the MILF can police the area and eradicate the other Islamist groups which means he does not put much faith in MILF's stated intention to disarm. But why does he think the BIFF is a problem when they have voiced support for the BOL?
It's as if Lorenzana is saying you can't trust the word of terrorists.
He said the BIFF were planning to bomb civilian and military targets in urban communities in Sultan Kudarat and North Cotabato.
So why is the government trusting the word of the MILF?
