It's a new year and a new extension but what will happen this year during martial law in Mindanao? Based on all that has happened so far here are a few predictions for 2019.
1. Duterte will continue his inconsistent and contradictory rhetoric in regards to the NPA.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1063781/duterte-wants-peace-with-rebels-go-tells-reds |
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/12/20/1878536/duterte-warns-npa-blood-will-flow |
The nation has been witness to this flip-flopping since the beginning of his presidency. First he says he will have peace and he even released many NDFP members who were in prison so they could facilitate with the peace talks. Later the peace talks collapsed and Duterte declared all out war against the NPA. But no war happened and the peace talks were revived only to collapse once more. It is a cycle which keeps repeating.
2. Abu Sayyaf will remain a threat.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1064789/new-army-unit-to-crush-abus-duterte |
“I do not want a war. I do not want to kill Filipinos. I do not want the government to kill its own people,” the Philippines said as he activated the 11th ID in Sulu. “[But] there are certain developments, especially the entry of the IS (Islamic State jihadist group), which have influenced the people.”
Brig. Gen. Rey Pabayo Jr., the acting commander of the 11th ID, said he would sustain the campaign against the Abu Sayyaf.
“We are optimistic that, with the activation of the 11th ID, we will end our campaign against terrorism and bring peace and order in Sulu,” he said.
Overlooking Duterte's remark that he does not want to kill Filipinos or for the government to kill its own people (happy to slaughter drug addicts) does this declaration that Abu Sayyaf will be finished off sound familiar? It should.
2018:
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| https://www.philstar.com/nation/2018/05/18/1816201/finish-abu-sayyaf-2018-soldiers-told |
2017:
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/157825-philippines-military-crush-abu-sayyaf-maute |
2016:
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/138302-visaya-afp-backs-peace-talks-finish-abu-sayyaf |
2014:
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/72769-aquino-abu-sayyaf-suppress |
“You will see very significant accomplishments as far as the suppressing the Abu Sayyaf is concerned," Aquino said on Wednesday, October 22.
"I am just trying to stop myself because I might be revealing ongoing operations and warned them that, you know, ‘They are about to catch you,’ ‘You’d better leave.’ So let me cut myself short there."
Aquino refused to give a deadline but later added, “I’m so tempted to tell you what to expect in the following days, but I think I will be compromising and putting at risk people undertaking my orders. Please await developments. They will be self-evident.”
And what developments happened in the following days after Aquino was tempted to spill the beans back in 2014?
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/73606-military-pressure-abu-sayyaf |
Nothing! And that is exactly what will happen in 2019 as well.
3. The Philippines will retain its ranking in the top ten countries affected by terrorism.
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| https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/20/18/ph-among-top-10-countries-most-impacted-by-terrorism-report |
Dubbed among the list's "emerging hotspots of terrorism," the Philippines is the only country in Southeast Asia in the top 10, which was topped by Iraq.
With a little luck and a few explosions the Philippines could climb the ranks to number one and be the most unique country in the world that is not only a tourist hotspot but also terrorist hotspot.
4. The BOL will pass the plebiscite thus forming the BARMM. The BOL will also miraculously be upheld as constitutional by the Supreme Court and the long slow process of secession will begin. Also terrorism will only increase between the various terror groups including in-fighting within the MILF.
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| https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/21/18/constitutional-experts-warn-bangsamoro-law-will-destroy-country-dismember-territories |
The Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) will destroy the country and dismember its territories, a group of constitutional experts and framers warned as they asked the Supreme Court to declare the landmark legislation unconstitutional.
The petition questioned the creation of a Bangsamoro Autonomous Region (BAR) in Muslim Mindanao to replace the existing Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).
PHILCONSA argued the 1987 Constitution only recognizes one autonomous region in Muslim Mindanao.
According to the group, the creation of a Bangsamoro political entity is contrary to the Constitution which created only provinces, cities, municipalities and barangays, and autonomous regions in Muslim Mindanao and the Cordilleras, calling BAR an “interloper” or a “stranger.”
The group also called out the grant of legislative powers to the Bangsamoro parliament, such as the power to grant tax exemptions and incentives, to create government-owned and controlled corporations, and to declare nature reserves, aquatic parks, forests, watershed reservations and other protected areas – powers which are reserved to Congress.
PHILCONSA also objected to the grant of powers to the Bangsamoro parliament to enter into trade relations with foreign countries and to contract foreign loans.
Its other objections pertain to the creation of a separate flag for the Bangsamoro Government and the omission of Lumads as among the Bangsamoro people.
You can read the BOL here: http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/downloads/2018/07jul/20180727-RA-11054-RRD.pdf
On page 3 is the provision for a Bangsomoro flag, pages 67 discusses foreign loans, and pages 68, 69 and 83 and 84 discuss foreign trade. The BARMM will for all intents and purposes be its own autonomous an covering country. Article 3 sec. 1 declares that areas covered by the BARMM "shall always be an integral, indivisible, and inseparable part of the national territory of the Republic of the Philippines" but what does that matter to the MILF? If they decided to break away would the AFP invade and start a bloody and horrible war?
Although the issues raised by PHILCONSA are very serious and will surely sink the BOL the MILF chairman is confident that the law will pass constitutional muster when it comes up before the Supreme Court. With Bersamin as Chief Justice why shouldn't it?
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1064481/milf-chief-bangsamoro-law-will-pass-constitutional-test |
“We are very confident that the BOL will stand the constitutional test because it has been processed many times during the negotiations, during the crafting of the law, during the passing of the law in Congress,” Murad said in an interview over ABS CBN Channel.
“Everybody made sure that the law will be constitutional,” he added.
The MILF chief said that if the BOL would not pass the constitutional test, extremist groups could use this as a justification to continue their cause.
“Ang tingin namin, it will be capitalized by extremist groups. Now, for the meantime, when the BOL succeeded in passing Congress, they have no more justification in their campaign,” he said.
“Now, if BOL will not pass, they will again capitalize on its failure in order to campaign for more adherents to their campaign,” he added.
On the other hand, if the BOL was enforced, Murad said the nation would benefit from the peace and justice that it would bring.
“A vote for the BOL is a vote for peace and a vote for justice. The peace and justice will be enjoyed not only by the Bangsamoro people, it will be enjoyed by everybody and it will ultimately be a development for the Bangsamoro area. Everybody will benefit from it,” he said.
It would be silly to expect Murad to defend the BOL from a constitutional perspective. Leave that to the lawyers of course. All we need to know is the BOL means peace. Know BOL, know peace. No BOL, no peace. Pretty simple right?
Except it's not true.
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If MILF can't get their people in line then how are all the other groups supposed to fall in line and keep the peace?
As long as Duterte has a man as Chief Justice of the Supremer court the future of the BOL is secure. The future of the Philippines, now that's a different matter.
4. The NPA will remain relevant.
The gist of all these predictions is that it will be business as usual in 2019. Nothing will change. The AFP will continue to attempt to end both the communist and Muslim insurgencies by engaging in the same tactics and hoping to get different results. That is insane!
4. The NPA will remain relevant.
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| https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/12/28/joma-sison-duterte-trapped-in-self-contradiction/ |
Sison said President Duterte’s attempt to ridicule the armed revolution is contradicted by his more frequent rant that the CPP and the New People’s Army (NPA) are the principal threats to the counterrevolutionary state and are his scapegoats and pretext for his scheme to establish a fascist dictatorship through martial law nationwide and charter change to a bogus kind of federalism.
He said the CPP has made great achievements in the field of ideology, politics and organization. It leads the millions of people who are in a comprehensive array of revolutionary forces, including the NPA, the National Democratic Front, the mass organizations and local organs of political power that constitute the people’s democratic government.
“The photos of the New People’s Army in company or battalion formations in so many places all over the Philippines in celebration of the 50th CPP founding anniversary prove beyond doubt that the NPA is a vibrant and growing force,” Sison said.
“They prove the utter falsity of Duterte’s claims that the NPA is being decimated by him and is on schedule to be completely destroyed before the current year ends or at the latest in the second quarter of next year,” he added.
Sison said of all the revolutionary forces, the NPA is in the best position to take the most dramatic initiatives in the form of tactical offensives to further disprove the false claim that the armed revolution is already a failed rebellion. Whenever the NPA tactical offensives are successful, they resound on a national scale.It's not so much that the NPA engages in tactical offensives as much as they engage in banditry and limited and occasional guerrilla warfare. The coffers of the CPP-NPA are filled with millions of pesos extorted from business owners. Once in a while the NPA will poke its head out of the jungle to snipe a few PNP or AFP men. But as of this moment they have hostages.
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| https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1779565/Cagayan-De-Oro/Local-News/NPA-abducts-2-soldiers-12-militiamen-Army-pursuit-ops-ongoing |
The CPP said all of the captured POW are "being treated leniently" and that they will be released soon if the government troops lessen their offensives too.As wth Abu Sayyaf the AFP has repeatedly declared the CPP-NPA to be irrelevant and has been wrong every single time.
The gist of all these predictions is that it will be business as usual in 2019. Nothing will change. The AFP will continue to attempt to end both the communist and Muslim insurgencies by engaging in the same tactics and hoping to get different results. That is insane!
Mindanao will be the next Syria and ISIS battleground. It will be war for many years to come and refugees from Mindanao will flood the rest of the Philippines further destabilizing the rest of the country. All at a time when the rest of Asia is becoming first world. That's what you get for calling Obama a son of a whore. Think there's no hidden hand organizing all this?
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