Insurgency: Peace Much Earlier

This week Duterte said something rather surprising. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1093178

“With the rate that the NPAs are surrendering, mukhang I think we’d be able to realize peace much earlier,” the President said during the mass oath-taking of new presidential appointees held at Palace’s Rizal Hall. 

To recall, Duterte on Jan. 23 led the distribution of government assistance packages to at least 263 former communist insurgents in San Isidro, Leyte. 

Duterte, in his previous speech, hinted that he might give in to the demands of the communist movement in a bid to realize long-lasting peace in the country. 

The President, however, did not elaborate on the communists’ specific favors for the possible revival of peace negotiations between the national government and the CPP’s political wing, the National Democratic Front (NDF). 

“The most important thing is to come up and comply with the promise to the rebels,” he said. 

“Kaya sabi ko doon sa mga sundalo, bitawan na lang niyo. Umalis na lang kayo diyan. Ibigay na lang ninyo sa mga NPA. Lagyan na lang natin ng… Ah ayaw kong sabihin kasi may gusto akong ilagay (That’s why I told the soldiers, just let go. Leave the place and just give it to the NPA. We’ll just place a… I don’t want to mention it but I want to place something there),” Duterte added.

It is not clear what it means that he would give into the demands of the CPP since their only one demand is the implementation of the CASER agreement. In the meantime Duterte is handing out money and cellphones to rebels who surrender.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1091866

President Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday renewed his call to rebels in Leyte province to lay down their arms and avail of land distribution and livelihood assistance. 

“We can’t solve the problem in the Philippines by revolution. It has to be evolution,” he said.  

So far, under the Duterte administration, some 140,000 hectares of land have been distributed to farmers nationwide.  

According to Leyte local officials, 2,000 hectares could be distributed to farmer-beneficiaries. 

“The 2,200 hectares -- tell your crazy comrades to get down here because they won’t be a part of the distribution if they aren’t here,” the President told the former rebels who were given support by the government. “I will give all the lands to the Filipino.”  

He noted that he wanted those parcels of land to be released to beneficiaries in three months. 

Duterte asked the Department of Agriculture to assist farmers in analyzing the soil to determine the crops suitable to their locations. 

During the event, eight representatives of 262 former rebels received the multi-million financial aid from the President. The former rebels were also given remuneration for their firearms. 

Duterte handed over some PHP11.9 million in cash and livelihood assistance to rebel returnees during the mass awarding of the Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-CLIP) benefits.  

This is on top of the additional PHP5,000 cash assistance and mobile phones for each former rebel from the Office of the President. 

Of the 262 who surrendered, 33 of them were New People’s Army (NPA) fighters and 229 were members of the Militia ng Bayan (MB). 

That is a lot of money and land to be handing out which should be going to help law abiding citizens who were never part of the insurgency. The Militia ng Bayan, while not the same as regular NPA soldiers, functions as a sort of training school for future rebels.  From the DND:

Militia ng Bayan - refers to individuals who have been indoctrinated and may or may not  be directly involved in violent armed struggle but, when organized, can provide mass support to the "revolutionary movement" of the CPP/NPA/NDF. These organized individuals form part of the mass-base that serves as revolutionary enforcement in the barrio. They secure the NPA forces while int he community and, at times, are even armed to reinforce the NPA during encounters. They are trained with sniping and Improvised Explosives Device (IED) deployment and detonation, among other armed activities, which eventually qualifies them to become the main source of NPA regulars.

http://dnd.gov.ph/PDF2018/IRRofAO10,s-2018.pdf

Duterte and even some top AFP brass think the E-CLIP program of giving away money and other goodies is the way to end the insurgency and bring peace so the program will continue. Peace is a funny word in the Philippines which has different meanings for whoever is employing it.  Remember this definition of peace from former MILF Vice Chairman Ghazali Jaafar?

Jaafar said it was important that government and the MILF are on the same page on the definition of peace “kasi the way we look at it, ang definition ng gobyerno sa peace is the absence of fighting. That is not the peace that we want. There can be no peace if the Bangsamoro agenda is not addressed to the satisfaction of the greater majority of the Bangsamoro people. This can be addressed if ma-realize yung demand ng Bangsamoro people na meron silang gobyerno and government they will run for everybody, Muslims and non-Muslims alike and a democratic government and still under the Republic of the Philippines.”

https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2019/03/martial-law-isis-is-rising.html

Peace for the MILF is not the cessation of fighting but the fulfillment of the Bangsamoro agenda which is ultimately an independent Mindanao. BARMM Chief Minister and leader of the MILF Ebrahim Murad has also said that decommissioning does not mean they have given up on their struggle.

“We have not given up on our struggle.” 

“We are not surrendering. Decommissioning is not tantamount to surrendering,” said Ebrahim, who is also Chief Minister of the interim Bangsamoro government. 

“I would like to emphasize that the decommissioning doesn’t mean we have given up on what we used to fight for,” Ebrahim emphasized.

https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2019/09/martial-law-insurgent-free.html 

Given Murad's very violent and unpeaceful career as well as his insistence that the struggle is not over it is strange he recently received an honorary degree for being a humanitarian and peace builder.

https://news.mb.com.ph/2020/02/03/msu-confers-honorary-degree-on-murad/

The Mindanao State University (MSU) system has conferred on Bangsamoro Chief Minister Ahod “Hadji Murad” Ebrahim an honorary doctorate degree in recognition of his “exemplary contributions to humanity and peace building” in the south. 

“I am accepting this honorary degree not for myself, but for the Bangsamoro struggle and the Bangsamoro people,” Ebrahim told some 1,500 graduates during the conferment ceremony at the MSU system’s Dimaporo gymnasium in Marawi City. 

Ebrahim’s choice as graduation speaker and recipient of honorary doctorate degree in peace and development was opted by the MSU Board of Regents on recommendation of MSU President Dr. Habib Macaayong. 

In his speech, Ebrahim recalled that he was once an MSU student, 55 years ago. After being granted a government scholarship program, he then transferred to Notre Dame University in Cotabato City and took up Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering. 

“And yet, with another twist, before finishing my fifth year in college, I decided to pursue a calling bigger than all of us – the rise of the Moro movement. Without hesitation, I left the university and joined the movement’s military training in 1970,” he added. 

“Fast forward, that revolution has enabled us to establish a new bureaucracy that reflects our ideals and aspirations,” said the MILF chairman cum chief minister of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

I am not aware of how many men Murad has personally killed or how much bloodshed he is actually responsible for but he sure is strange choice for a degree honoring his "contributions to humanity and peace building" in Mindanao. His is a legacy of violence. Mindanao State University in Cotobabto City giving Murad award is basically the Bansamoro people patting one of their own on the back.

Contrary to what some people may think ISIS was not defeated in the Marawi Siege.  ISIS was not defeated last year either.  Though they have been relatively quiet and their numbers are low they still pose a threat. This threat is what makes Duterte's determination to terminate the VFA because Bato's US visa was cancelled all the more dangerous.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1093298

President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) to transmit the Philippines’ formal notification to the United States (US) with regard to its termination of the 22-year-old Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), Malacañang announced on Friday. 

The President’s order came a day after Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. warned that the revocation of the VFA might have a “negative” impact on the Philippines. 

“PRRD (President Rodrigo Roa Duterte) is instructing (Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea to tell (Locsin) to send the notice of termination to the US government,” Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo said in a statement.

I understand that the above story has been called fake news by DND Sec. Lorenzana which goes to show the miscommunication between the members of the Duterte administration. But the gist of it remains true.  Duterte is hellbent on scrapping the VFA to the detriment of the nation.

It's real funny how Teddy Locsin has changed his tune from "Good idea" to "bad idea." It's yes men like him who are an danger to this nation. Quite frankly Duterte has lost his mind about the VFA. Without it all US-PHL military operations will come to a halt and ISIS and other rogue elements will regain strength. It's a wonder no one has spoken out in the strongest terms against this foolish and rash decision.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1225923/military-officers-worry-about-loss-of-us-surveillance-aid

Field-based officers of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has expressed worry over the possible cut in the United States government’s assistance for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) activities should President Duterte proceed with terminating the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). 

The officers, who asked not to be named, said US support is crucial in running after Islamic State (IS)-linked militants. 

Without US support, one officer said, it would be like “fighting the militants with blurry eyes or a hazy vision.” 

“Some of our operations will be affected,” the officer further said. 

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, in a recent visit here, has said the country stands to lose US support for ISR operations without the VFA. 

Lorenzana said the support is made possible through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) which was inked in 2014. It allows the United States to rotate troops into the country for extended stays, and to build and operate facilities on AFP bases. 

“I think EDCA will become useless if there is no more VFA. Who will man these bases,” said Lorenzana, referring to the US military facilities that’s providing the intelligence and surveillance support, one of which is in Zamboanga City. 

Along with the Zamboanga US facility, Lorenzana said the surveillance flights provided by Dyne Corporation, a service provider of the US Department of Defense, will also stop its operations in Southern Philippines. 

Another military officer has told the Inquirer the Zamboanga facility was instrumental in the recent successful operation that led to the killing of a local IS affiliate in Lanao del Sur.

Surveillance aircraft operated by DyneCorp helped government troops defeat in 2017 IS militants who laid siege on Marawi City. 

Apart from aiding the AFP in war-fighting, some other AFP officers pointed to logistical assistance from the US military towards rescue and relief operations in times of disasters like after typhoons Sendong, Pablo and Yolanda.

DND Sec. Lorenzana admits scrapping the VFA will render EDCA useless but he still says Duterte has his"unqualified support" if he decides to terminate it.

The defense chief, however, said that ultimately, the decision rests on the President, and Duterte had already decided. 

“The pros and cons were laid out and it is clear that we also benefit in terms of grants (mil equipment, training, HADR) from the VFA. But the President, as the ultimate authority on foreign relations, has decided. And whatever he decides on this matter has my unqualified support.”

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/07/20/duterte-to-pursue-scrapping-vfa-despite-concerns-lorenzana-says

That is the sound of a weak man who is wiffle-waffling to keep his job. He knows scrapping the VFA is a bad decision but he goes against Duterte at his own risk. He has had to walk the same fine line about China and the UN arbitral decision so he has plenty of practice of supporting Duterte doing things which endanger national security.

One person who supports the idea of Duterte scrapping the VFA is CPP founder Joma Sison.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1226037/joma-sison-supports-duterte-move-to-end-vfa

“I tell Duterte, go right ahead,” Sison, Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founder, said in an online interview from Utrecht in The Netherlands on Saturday.

Of course a terrorist leader would applaud such a move. If they were polled Abu Sayyaf, BIFF, MNLF, and MILF would probably approve too.

I started off by writing that Duterte said a surprising thing.  What he said was that peace might be realized much earlier. This is surprising because without the VFA it is a sure thing that terrorism will only increase as the AFP will be less able to deal with the threat. Is Duterte even thinking holistically about how the VFA enables the US and the AFP to work together to combat both ISIS and the communists? Certainly not.