Martial Law: Insurgent-Free

Life is a series of cycles. The seasons, the week, the helplessness of infancy and the senility of old age, such are just a few of the instances of the cyclical nature of life. In the Philippines the war against terrorism is also highlighted by cycles. During the presidency of Marcos there was martial law and peace talks with the MNLF.  Under Duterte there is martial law and peace talks with the MNLF.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/27/19/misuari-wants-to-include-oic-in-mindanao-peace-talks

Moro National Liberation Front founding chairman Nur Misuari wants to include the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in talks with the government on peace efforts in Mindanao, Malacañang said Tuesday. 

Misuari made the remark in his meeting with President Rodrigo Duterte in Davao City last Friday, where the chief executive called for a coordinating body for peace talks between the government and the MNLF. 

"He (Misuari) wished that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) be involved in the consultations, similar to the previous tripartite talks with GPH (Government of the Philippines), MNLF and the OIC, to determine the remaining compliance of the GPH in the 1996 Final Peace Agreement with the MNLF,” Presidential Spokesman Salvador Panelo said. 

In 1996, the government under former president Fidel Ramos forged a peace accord with the Misuari-led MNLF with the aid of the OIC. The agreement earned both Ramos and Misuari the Félix Houphouët-Boigny Peace Prize in 1997.

1996 may have been the year the Final Peace Agreement with the MNLF was signed but the process began in the 70's with the 1976 Tripoli Agreement. The OIC was a facilitator during these initial talks between the GPH and the MNLF.

The 1976 Tripoli Agreement was signed on December 23, 1976 in Tripoli, Libya by Carmelo Z. Barbero, representing the Government of the Philippines and Nur Misuari of the Moro National Liberation Front. The agreement defined autonomous administrative divisions for Muslims in the southern Philippines, the establishment of an autonomous government, judicial system for Sharia law and special security forces, and the observance of a ceasefire. The autonomous region was to have its own economic system, including an Islamic bank. 

Facilitators of the agreement included members of the Quadripartite Ministerial Commission of the Organization of Islamic Conference, headed by Ali Abdussalam Treki, representing Muammar Gaddafi, leader of the host country, and the OIC Secretary General, Amadou Karim Gaye. The other members of the Quadripartite Ministerial Commission aside from Treki included representatives from Saudi Arabia, Senegal and Somalia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Tripoli_Agreement

This 1976 agreement is what paved the way for the ARMM which was established in 1989. The ARMM was supposed to be the crowing achievement of the MNLF bringing peace to the region. That did not happen and now the MNLF is back at the table negotiating with the GPH and they want the OIC back at the table with them. But with the BARMM now in place implementing the provisions of the 1996 Final Agreement that would be impossible. 

Overlooking the fact that Misuari is a terrorist criminal who is out on bail and still facing trial for the Zamboanga siege in 2013 whom the government should not be dealing with it is rather striking that the MNLF is back to square one. All the fighting and talking and even the awarding of a peace prize and all for nothing. This time around it would seem that Misuari and the MNLF will be cordoned off in Sulu but Sulu is a part of the BARMM. What kind of deal the GPH and MNLF will work out is anyone's guess.

The Final Peace Agreement of 1996 provided for the buying of weapons from MNLF fighters and allowing them in integrate into the AFP and PNP.

Sec. 7. Disposition of Firearms. — 

a. Applicants who voluntarily turnover their firearms shall be compensated in accordance with the AFP Balik-Baril Project. Said firearms shall then be accounted for as government property and may be re-issued to them during training/deployment as members of separate units. 

b. All firearms still in the possession of MNLF members not integrated into the military of police service shall be subject to existing firearms laws, rules and regulations.

http://www.chanrobles.com/administrativeorders/administrativeorderno295.html

This is practically the same deal with he MILF who this week decommissioned thousands of their fighters.

https://businessmirror.com.ph/2019/09/09/govt-to-give-decommissioned-milf-combatant-aid-package-worth-p1m/

The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (Barmm) said each of the decommissioned combatants would receive from the government “a socioeconomic package amounting to an estimated value of 1 million pesos.”  

The Barmm said the package includes P100,000 cash, health benefits, scholarships for children, housing and livelihood projects, training and capacity building, and others.

Despite the MNLF surrendering weapons and half of their force entering the PNP and AFP peace was not achieved. The ARMM deteriorated and in 2013 the MNLF captured Zamobanaga and declared the Bangsamoro Republic.  Will this be the same fate for the BARMM?  Ebrahim Murad says decommissioning is not surrendering.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1162067/milfs-murad-decommissioning-is-not-surrender

“We have not given up on our struggle.” 

“We are not surrendering. Decommissioning is not tantamount to surrendering,” said Ebrahim, who is also Chief Minister of the interim Bangsamoro government. 

“I would like to emphasize that the decommissioning doesn’t mean we have given up on what we used to fight for,” Ebrahim emphasized.

What the MILF used to fight for, the reason the group broke away from the MNLF, is the formation of an independent Muslim Mindanao. Will they continue to pursue this goal? According to Murad the answer is yes. How they continue this fight remains to be seen.

The AFP is also caught up in cycles. This week they said they are going to rid Leyte of the NPA.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1079514

The Philippine Army has vowed to work double-time to neutralize the remaining 15 armed fighters of the New People’s Army (NPA) still running and hiding in the mountains of Leyte Island.  

Brig. Gen. Lope Dagoy, commander of the Philippine Army’s 802nd Infantry Brigade said on Wednesday their goal is to completely wipe out insurgency in Leyte before he retires in March next year. 

“There are only 15 of them and it is more challenging to chase them. Now that I am in charge of two battalions, they have nowhere to go in Leyte Island,” Dagoy, a former commander of the Presidential Security Group, told reporters in an interview.

But in 2011 the AFP declared Leyte among the 24 provinces liberated from the NPA.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/119555/afp-we-liberated-23-provinces-from-npa

In a somewhat startling declaration Thursday, the Armed Forces claimed to have “liberated” 23 provinces from the four-decades-old communist insurgency, which it said lost more than 300 guerrillas in 2011. 

“The AFP through the IPSP Bayanihan liberated 23 provinces from the CPP-NPA-NDF influence, with their internal security operations turned over to their respective local government units,” the military said. 

The provinces are Apayao, Ifugao, Kalinga, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Biliran, Cebu, Bohol, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, South Cotabato, La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Cavite, Marinduque, Romblon, Guimaras, Siquijor and Leyte and Southern Leyte. 

AFP public affairs chief  Colonel Arnulfo Marcelo Burgos Jr. said the presence of NPA guerrillas in these provinces had become so insignificant that the military had turned over the job of maintaining security in these areas to the local government  units. 

“These are indicators that there is now unhampered progress in these provinces without major incidents of violence and extortion by the NPA rebels,” he said in a phone interview. 

“We can’t say there’s zero presence but we can say that it is no longer significant,” Burgos said. 

Only “less than 5,000” NPA rebels remain in the countryside waging their decadeslong revolution, he said.

15 rebels in the mountains of Leyte are indeed significant compared to the thousands scattered in holes and lairs across the country but significance of numbers is not the point. The point is to completely stamp out the NPA and end the insurgency once for all. Because the AFP turned over security operations to LGUs rather than go the distance and finish the job the NPA still poses problems in most if not all of those provinces.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1079409

“We also have to work harder in order to retain peace and prevent the resurgence of insurgency and terrorism,” Dolina point out.

“Cebu as the economic and political hub in the Visayas, and Bohol, together with Siquijor as top international tourist destinations in the region, stresses the importance of preventing enemy resurgence and strengthening convergence not only of the government and non-government agencies, but also the communities,” he said.

In his relinquishment speech, Baluyan noted that Cebu was declared insurgency-free in 2010, and that it is a challenge for the task group commander “to sustain the ISO gains in Cebu."

What is the real status of the NPA in Cebu, Bohol, and Siquijor when just a few months ago the PNP was worried about a resurgence which the AFP is seeking to prevent.

https://www.boholchronicle.com.ph/2019/04/10/pnp-concerned-over-resurgence-of-npa-in-bohol-pnp-chief-albayalde/

Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Gen. Oscar Albayalde on Wednesday expressed concern over the reported presence of New People’s Army (NPA) rebels in Bohol, which has been deemed insurgency free for almost a decade.  

It was the first time that a national police official publicly acknowledged the “resurgence” of the NPA in the province. 

In July the AFP reported that the NPA in Negros had installed a new leader.

https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1814059

He added that Posadas leads the rebels based in the neighboring islands of Cebu, Bohol, and Siquijor.

How can Cebu, Bohol, and Siquijor be insurgent-free if there are still insurgents? These areas have been declared insurgent-free at least twice including 2009 and 2018.

https://www.philstar.com/cebu-news/2009/07/13/485995/afp-declares-cebu-and-bohol-free-insurgents

“Insurgency-free”, according to Luga, means that they have received no more reports of armed men in the province. 

“Insignificant level. Wala na rito ang mga armed groups,” Luga said during the recent meeting of the Regional Peace and Order Council held at the Capitol Social Hall.

https://pia.gov.ph/news/articles/1010797

Alongside the brigade, the LGUs and ordinary citizens have taken the bulk of the responsibility in ensuring that Bohol, Cebu, and Siquijor remain insurgency-free.

However, Col. Madriaga clarified that while the areas are insurgency-free, they are not insurgent-free. 

Col. Madriaga insisted that communist members are present in these areas but the conditions that drive insurgency are being addressed. 

Insurgency-free but not insurgent-free? But the presence of insurgents means there is an insurgency! The AFP's definition of insurgency-free as meaning no reports of armed men is incredibly faulty. It does not follow that lack of reports of armed men means there are no insurgents!  It's quite a lot of nonsense and because the AFP cannot be truthful even to themselves they are caught in a cycle of clearing the same areas again and again. 

The AFP's handling of intel is also cyclical and repetitive. The cycle goes receive intel, do not act on it or ignore it, problems happen. In the lead up to the Marawi siege the AFP received intel about the impending attack but they ignored it. Earlier this year they received intel about foreign fighters making their way to Mindanao.  

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/02/09/1892149/intel-shows-foreign-terrorists-arriving-mindanao

A ranking local official yesterday revealed reports of Arabs and other foreign militants arriving in Sulu and other areas in southern Philippines. 

Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) Gov. Mujiv Hataman cited the information gathered during a meeting with Interior Secretary Eduardo Año and Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana. 

Hataman said he is revealing the intelligence information to make the public aware of the threat posed by foreign terrorists coming to Sulu and parts of Central Mindanao.

Later in the year the AFP claimed there were only 7 foreign fighters in Mindanao. Now they claim there are dozens. Maybe about 60.

https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/militant-concerns-09042019124955.html

Dozens of foreign militants have fanned out in the Philippine south to evade capture, a military commander said Wednesday, as an analyst warned that extremists could mount a large-scale attack reminiscent of the Islamic State siege of Marawi in 2017. 

Government forces should watch out for more attacks from foreign extremists who have infiltrated the southern region and are moving to radicalize locals, said Jose Antonio Custodio, a security and defense analyst at the Institute for Policy, Strategy and Development Studies, a Philippine think-tank. 

“A non-neutralization of the ISIS foreign militants will allow them to increasingly radicalize local groups and then this may lead to more Marawi-style attacks or suicide bombings,” he told Benar News, using another acronym for Islamic State and referring to a five-month siege carried out in the southern Philippine city by militants linked with IS. 

The military commander for Western Mindanao, meanwhile, said troops were searching the region for about 60 suspected foreign militants, including people from Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia, Morocco and Afghanistan. 

“They are scattered in our areas. They don’t have popular support. In due time, using our capabilities, we will neutralize them,” Lt. Gen. Cirilito Sobejana said, reiterating an earlier pledge that the foreign fighters would be accounted for by year’s end. 

He said the foreigners were believed to be in areas where Philippine militant groups, including the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), were operating.

The AFP is confident that ISIS does not have enough popular support to recruit. But why make such an assumption? They pose a problem either way and the point is to neutralise them not observe them closely. As long as the AFP continues operating the way they do these cycles will keep repeating and terrorism will never be stamped out.