Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Does The Philippines Need The World To Survive As A Nation?

"Do we need America to survive as a nation?", Duterte asked on February 26th, 2020. The context of the question was Duterte's attempt to justify his rash decision to abrogate the VFA but the substance underlying this question affects every area of the Philippines' existence as a nation. Presidential spokesman Panleo clarified Duterte's remarks by saying:
“As the President said, it is time we stand on our own feet,” Panelo said. “The President is correct, we have to strengthen our own resources,” he added.
https://globalnation.inquirer.net/185308/panelo-duterte-wants-no-more-military-alliances-with-other-countries-for-ph-to-stand-on-its-own
Again the context was defending Duterte's justification for abrogating the VFA yet divorced from that context the assertion is rather striking. The Philippines must stand on its own two feet and strengthen their resources. But the reality is that the while spirit may be willing the flesh is very weak. Rather than limit the question to America let's expand it.  Let's ask, "Does the Philippines need the world to survive as a nation?"

https://businessmirror.com.ph/2020/01/14/phl-ends-decade-as-worlds-top-rice-importer/
THE Philippines started and ended the previous decade as the world’s top rice importer, with the country formally overtaking China as the top buyer of the staple last year, based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 
Data from the USDA showed that the Philippines’s rice imports in 2019 rose to an all-time high of 3.2 million metric tons (MMT), making the country the top buyer of imported rice last year. 
In its first monthly forecast report, the USDA revealed that the Philippines has “soared to become the top global importer” of rice as its total purchases last year surpassed China’s 2.4 MMT. China has been the world’s top rice importer since 2013. 
With the USDA’s latest report, the Philippines has officially surpassed its previous record of 2.5 MMT in 2008, the height of the global rice price crisis. The Philippines was also the top rice importer that same year. 
The last time the Philippines was regarded as the world’s top buyer of rice was in 2010, when it imported 2.4 MMT, historical USDA data showed. 
The latest USDA figures showed the Philippines may still be the world’s top importer of rice this year, as total volume is projected to reach 2.7 MMT, higher than China’s estimated imports of 2.3 MMT. 
The Department of Agriculture (DA) earlier said the country’s total rice imports last year reached 3 MMT following the enactment of the rice trade liberalization (RTL) law, which eased the requirements for importing rice.
For all the many decades of the Department of Agriculture squawking about rice self-sufficiency the Philippines is no closer to that goal. They began and ended the decade as the world's top rice importer. Reaching this goal was made possible by the rice tariffication law which resulted in a P68 billion loss for local farmers. If the Philippines did not import rice there would not be enough to feed everyone.

https://www.philstar.com/business/2018/05/31/1820097/philippines-remains-worlds-call-center-capital-ccap
“The Philippines continues to be the largest location for delivery of contact services in the rest of the world. So as an outsourcing destination, we continue to dominate the No. 1 spot as a country. There is no close No. 2. We continue to be No. 1 in terms of market share,” Contact Center Association of the Philippines (CCAP) chairman Benedict Hernandez said. 
Citing data from Texas-based global consulting and research firm The Everest Group, CCAP said the Philippines is seen to continue being the biggest contact center market this 2018, taking 16 to 18 percent of the total outsourced services globally. 
This again will put the country ahead of India, its nearest competitor in this market. 
“From a cultural, language empathy, customer centricity standpoint, the Filipino customer  representative is really preferred around the world. There is also a cost advantage to doing work in the Philippines. If you combine all those qualities, plus cost advantage, then it becomes an attractive location for contact center services,” Hernandez said. 
Based on The Everest Group data, the Philippine contact center sector generated revenues of $13 billion in 2017, a slight improvement from $12.77 billion revenue in 2016. 
This year, CCAP expects the industry to expand by another seven to nine percent. 
“We are forecasting to add another $1 billion in revenues this year. That translates to an additional 70,000 more jobs,” Uligan said. 
Under its existing roadmap, CCAP expects the sector’s revenue to rise to $20.4 billion by 2022.
Western businesses have looked to the Philippines to outsource much of their call center work. The result is a staggering growth in jobs and revenue. No question that these foreign call centers play a huge role in the Philippine economy. If they vanished overnight the economy would tank.

https://www.rappler.com/business/252043-overseas-filipino-workers-remittances-2019
Despite political uncertainties across the globe, personal remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) reached a record high of $33.5 billion in 2019, 3.9% higher than the $32.2 billion recorded in 2018. 
Inflows were mainly from the United States, which accounted for 37.6%, followed by Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Japan, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Canada, Hong Kong, Germany, and Kuwait. 
OFW money boosted household income and consumption last year, accounting for 9.3% of the gross domestic product and 7.8% of the gross national income.
Despite the fact that so much money flows into this country from OFWs many people still run out of money!
UniTeller also noted that poor financial planning is experienced by almost 19% of families who admitted that they regularly run out of money. 
Around 72% of Filipino families said they will reach out to the OFW when they run out of cash, while 53% said they will forego day-to-day needs if this happens.
If there were no countries for Filipinos to work in as baristas, cooks, maids, nurses, or engineers so they could send back money to their relatives the economy would be severely impacted.

https://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/288857/international-arrivals-in-philippines-exceeds-2019-target
The country’s international visitors in 2019 reached 8.26 million, slightly exceeding the 8.2-million target set in the National Tourism Development (NTDP) for 2016-2022, the Department of Tourism (DoT) reported on its Facebook page. 
“This heralds a new milestone in the country’s tourism history, breaching the eight millionth mark.  Without doubt, our convergence programs with other government agencies, particularly in improving access as well as product development and marketing initiatives with local government and private sector have greatly paid off,” Tourism Secretary Bernadette Romulo-Puyat said. 
The secretary expressed hope the Philippines could sustain these gains amid the global challenges.
Who can forget the perennial quest of the DOT to steer foreign tourists to the Philippines so they can shop at the mall? Without the influx of tourists the economy would not collapse but there would be less money flowing.

Rice sufficiency, BPO's, OFW remittances, and tourists are just the tip of an iceberg which is Philippine dependence on foreign countries to "stand on their own." We could also look at Foreign Direct Investments or FDIs as well as the money promised by China and Japan to build infrastructure. There is also the many countries the Philippines has solicited for military equipment including Russia, India, and Korea. There are also many foreign NGO's distributing goods, building houses, providing education all through USAID and the NED. But that is all part of that iceberg tip.  Let's now look below the waters and see the mass of foreign money that is the base of Philippine development.

Since 1957 the Philippines has taken out billions in loans from the World Bank's lending arm the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).  You can view all of these loans in detail at this link.  The very first loan was for the construction go Binga Power Dam. Then there are loans for various projects such as port dredging, Angat Dam, Maria Cristina Power Plant, Upper Pampanga River Irrigation Project (Pantabangan dam), and even highways. 

Some of the borrowers include the National Power Corporation, the Central Bank of the Philippines, the Private Development Corporation of the Philippines, Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewage, the Department of Finance, and the Philippine National Bank.

Here is a table of the latest approved programs.

https://financesapp.worldbank.org/en/countries/Philippines/
That may be too tiny for anyone to read. One of the projects listed is "Improving Fiscal Management." The budget for the project is $450,000,000!  This is not a project to help poor Filipinos become financially literate.  It is a project to institute economic reform within the government.
The development objective of the Improving Fiscal Management Development Policy Loan (DPL) Project for Philippines is to support the high-level objective of the Government of the Philippines to improve fiscal management with three development objectives: (A) strengthening tax policy; (B) enhancing public finance management and budget planning; and (C) strengthening fiscal risk management of public assets. This DPL forms an integral part of the Philippines country partnership strategy (CPS) which aims to support the government’s fiscal and budget reforms. This operation responds to a direct request from the government to support the acceleration of fiscal reform efforts in the Philippines. While the Philippines has a robust macroeconomic framework and strong reform program, due to changing global market conditions it is experiencing an increased government financing need. The government’s commitment to maintaining reform momentum is evidenced in the recent efforts in advancing further tax reforms, as well as a significant demand for technical assistance which the World Bank is responding to with other development partners.
https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P167651 
"This operation responds to a direct request from the government to support the acceleration of fiscal reform efforts in the Philippines." Who made this direct request? Was it Duterte? Was it the finance secretary? What exactly is the $450,000,000 going towards? To write tax policies like TRAIN?

According to the World Bank there are have been 200 projects in the Philippines with a combined total commitment of $20,210,393,044.31. These 200 projects are as diverse as a Cebu Bus Rapid Transit project to disaster risk management. While the World Bank is an international organization that is part of the United Nations system it is located in the USA and presided over by an American citizen chosen by the President of the United States. 

Does the Philippine need the world to survive as a nation? Undoubtedly. The Philippines can't even feed itself without importing millions of tons of rice! If OFW's were not working overseas and sending remittances a large part of the economy would vanish.  The same thing would happen if not many tourists visited and if BPOs shut down. Without loans from the World Bank many projects in the Philippines would not be funded.

It's complete nonsense to think that abrogating the VFA will enable the Philippines to stand on its own feet when all these other programs remain in place propping up the nation.

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