Martial law in Mindanao is set to end at the end of the year. For 135 weeks Mindanao has been subjected to the rigorous military rule of the AFP. At this point it would be a good idea to look back and see what lessons have been learned. Surely the AFP learned a few things? I know I did and I hope anyone who has been reading this series has also. To make it easier and organised I will only cover five points: ISIS, Security/Borders, Policy, Foreign Assistance, and Marawi and Mindanao.
1. ISIS
At the beginning of the Marawi siege terrorists drove around with black ISIS flags. They declared it was a victory for ISIS. The Palace and the AFP both denied any ISIS involvement in the siege and any ISIS presence in the country.
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"We don't have ISIS in the Philippines," Col. Edgard Arevalo, AFP public affairs office chief, told reporters.
Arevalo said what the government troops encountered in Marawi City was a local terror group which is using the incident to get recognition from ISIS.
"Ginagamit nila ang mga insidenteng ito upang sila ay i-recognize. These groups who are claiming to be ISIS, they are merely courting the acclamation of ISIS na hanggang ngayon ay hindi pa rin nila nakukuha kaya patuloy ang kanilang ginagawang atrocities," he said.
In a separate press briefing, PNP spokesperson Chief Supt. Dionardo Carlos said the Maute group is not an ISIS group.
"It is not an ISIS group, it is a local terror group. Walang ISIS dito. They are not even recognized yet by ISIS," he said.
Funnily enough the next day they changed their tune all because Duterte contradicted them.
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| https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/612073/afp-to-follow-duterte-s-assertion-of-isis-presence-in-phl/story/ |
The Armed Forces of the Philippines on Thursday said it will follow the pronouncement of President Rodrigo Duterte saying that ISIS has a presence in the country.
"Our commander in chief has already made a pronouncement na ito po ay grupo na ng ISIS, so we are making adjustment accordingly sapagkat our President and commander-in-chief has access to other information that initially the AFP might not have," Col. Edgard Arevalo, AFP public affairs office chief, said in an interview on Unang Balita.
"It's already the commander-in-chief na nagsabi, so we subscribe to that pronouncement," Arevalo added.
Meanwhile, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) on Wednesday admitted the presence of ISIS despite the denials from PNP and AFP.
In a statement posted on its Twitter account, the DFA said the Philippine government is "fully aware that the Maute Group / ISIS groups have the capability (although limited) to disturb the peace..."
Duterte might have information the AFP dos not? Makes sense right? No. It's a straight up lie. The AFP lied to the country for several years about the presence of ISIS in the country. Here is a press release from the AFP with no date but which shows up in the internet archive or Wayback Machine for the first time on May 22, 2016.
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| https://www.afp.mil.ph/index.php/news/8-afp-news/346-afp-statement-on-alert-vs-terrorism-in-the-philippines |
We have not received any report pertaining to the presence of ISIS or their legitimate sympathizers in the Philippines. There is no authentic link or relationship between the ISIS and the ASG in Mindanao.
Those two sentences are a bold faced lie. The Consolidated Comments on Martial Law submitted by the OSG to the Supreme Court in 2017 tells a completely different story.
The Philippines as the extension of the ISIS caliphate Islamic groups worldwide. These groups commit atrocities in the name of the Islamic State in order to seek recognition and support—financial or otherwise—from ISIS.
8. The notoriety of the ISIS in Middle East has attracted the attention of extremist groups in the Philippines. The AFP has obtained ISIS’ propaganda material, Dabiq, which reports that as early as November 2014, a number of groups in the Philippines had already pledged their allegiance to the caliphate.
9. There are four ISIS-inspired groups that operate in different parts of Mindanao. These groups have formed alliances for the purpose of establishing a wilayah in Mindanao. The four (4) groups, which find their roots in different parts of Mindanao, are as follows:
a. The Abu-Sayyaf Group (“ASG”) from Basilan, led by Isnilon Hapilon (“Hapilon”);
b. Ansarul Khilafah Philippines (“AKP”) from Saranggani and Sultan Kudarat. The group is led by Mohammad Jaafar Maguid;
c. The Maute Group from Lanao del Sur led by Omar Maute; and,
d. Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (“BIFF”), based in the Liguasan Marsh, Maguindanao.
10. These groups are notorious for committing numerous bombings, assassinations, and extortion activities in the country, especially in Mindanao. In the past, these groups had been operating separately and independently. Due to their uniform pledge of allegiance to ISIS and their support for the establishment of a caliphate, an alliance has been formed between and among these groups (for brevity,these groups are collectively referred to herein as “ISIS-inspired local rebel groups”).
11. On April 2016, the ISIS’ weekly newsletter, Al Naba, announced the appointment of Abu Sayyaf leader Hapilon as the emir or leader of all ISIS forces in the Philippines. The appointment of Hapilon as its Philippine emir was confirmed in a 21 June 2016 video by ISIS entitled “The Solid Structure.” The video hailed Hapilon as “the mujahid” authorized to lead the soldiers of the Islamic State in the Philippines.”
12. On 31 December 2016, Hapilon and about thirty (30) of his followers, including eight (8) foreign terrorists, were surveilled in Lanao del Sur. According to military intelligence, Hapilon performed a symbolic hijra or pilgrimage to unite with the ISIS-inspired groups in mainland Mindanao. This was geared towards realizing the five (5)-step process of establishing a wilayah, which are: first, the pledging of allegiance to the Islamic State; second, the unification of all terrorist groups who have given bay'ah or their pledge of allegiance; third, the holding of consultations to nominate a wali or a governor of a province; fourth, the achievement of consolidation for the caliphate through the conduct of widespread atrocities and uprisings all across Mindanao; and finally, the presentation of all of these to the ISIS leadership for approval or recognition.
13. The appointment by ISIS of an emir in the Philippines is already the third step in the establishment of a wilayah in Mindanao. Moreover, these groups now have the unified mission of wresting control of Mindanaoan territory from the government for the purpose of establishing a wilayah.
http://www.osg.gov.ph/documents/officeupdates/OSG%20Consolidated%20Comment%20on%20Martial%20Law.pdf
Before 2017 the AFP knew that several groups in the Philippines had pledged allegiance to ISIS and that in April 2016 Hapilon had been appointed the emir of the forces in the Philippines by ISIS. Yet they lied to the public and said there was no ISIS and only changed their tune when Duterte forced them to do so. Why did they do this? Why have the never been held accountable for it?
Incredibly enough long after the siege had ended, long after reports had been coming in about foreign jihadis flocking to the Philippines under the ISIS banner, the AFP continued to deny the presence or threat of ISIS to the stability and peace of Mindanao.
Remember the suicide bombing in Basilan which was carried out but a foreign jihadi under the banner of ISIS back in 2018? The AFP denied it was the work of both ISIS and a foreign suicide bomber.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/08/02/1838931/afp-chief-isis-not-behind-basilan-blast |
The military yesterday dismissed claims that the Islamic State (IS) was behind the car bomb attack that killed 11 people in Basilan.
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Carlito Galvez said the IS was claiming every terror attack as part of its propaganda to gain more support.
“They are claiming everything. Even what happened in Manila, they were claiming to have had a hand in it. They are doing it to heighten the support and to show that they are still there,” Galvez said.
He also discounted the possibility that the supposed suicide bomber in last Tuesday’s attack was a foreigner.
An anti-terror official, however, maintained the suicide bomber was a foreigner, bolstering claims and identifying the slain suspect as Abu Kathir Al-Maghrib, a Moroccan jihadist.
But some officials stressed it might be possible that the driver of the van was just a courier of the bomb.
“So it is not conclusive that it was a suicide bomber and it’s not conclusive the suspect was a foreigner,” Galvez said.
Galvez was wrong on both counts and it was just a few weeks later that Galvez, in a budget meeting, changed his story.
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/210709-deadly-bombings-demonstrate-isis-tactics |
“The greatest threat that we have now is really ISIS,” said Galvez during a budget hearing on Wednesday. He referred particularly to its adherents – the Maute Group and BIFF in Central Mindanao and the Abu Sayyaf Group in Western Mindanao.
Since 2018 there have been six deadly suicide bombings including the blast at a cathedral in Jolo. Most of these have been carried out by foreigners with one confirmed Filipino. All claimed by ISIS.
While the fortunes of ISIS continue to change in the Middle East and in the Philippines they still remain a force to be reckoned with. Given the right conditions they could once again be able to lay siege to a city the size of Mindanao. The AFP should not let up on their offences against the BIFF and Abu Sayyaf who remain the largest ISIS affiliated groups in the Philippines. Nor should they underestimate the threat ISIS poses to the security of the nation.
2. Security/Borders
During the Marawi siege DND Secretary Lorenzana admitted surprise that so many foreign fighters had made their way into the country.
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| http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/627258/lorenzana-admits-gov-t-clueless-how-thousands-of-maute-fighters-entered-marawi/story/ |
Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana admitted Tuesday that they still do not know how the Maute fighters and foreign terrorists laid siege to Marawi City and continue to battle government forces til now.
“The Marawi is a class by itself because we have not yet found out how they got in, a lot of them coming from other places, from outside the Philippines, from Malaysia, Indonesia, from Jolo, Sulu, Basilan and other places in Mindanao,” Lorenzana said during a press conference on the recently concluded Tempest Wind drill.
“So we are going to intensify our intelligence efforts, we are trying to upgrade our technical capabilities with the help of the US and other countries [that] are capable of those technical capabilities,” he said.
“I think we have no choice but to really solve this problem because if we will not, then it can happen in other places other than Marawi,” he added.
Could it be the porous borders of the Southern Philippines? So said AFP Col. Arevalo.
“We cannot discount the possibility of foreign fighters surreptitiously able to enter the country given our vast and porous borders,” AFP spokesperson Colonel Edgard Arevalo said in a press statement.
That is certainly one idea. Anyone can take a boat from Indonesia and cross over to the Philippines unseen. Abu Sayyf abduct both fishermen and tourists regularly. What has happened since 2017 when Lorenzna said, "We have no choice but to really solve this problem?" Nothing it would seem. The term porous borders has consistently been used to describe the Philippines' southern costal areas by media and government officials.
The border remains wide open and a lot of that has to do with China's encroachment in the WPS preventing the Philippines from focusing as many resources as possible on maritime security in Mindanao.
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| https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/philippines-indonesia-11202019181356.html |
The Philippines and Indonesia have agreed to intensify joint maritime security patrols to check the movements of terrorists across their porous borders, military officials from both nations said Wednesday.
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines began trilateral patrols in June last year after pro-IS militants launched a siege in the southern Philippine city of Marawi. Five months of vicious fighting ended in October 2017 and killed at least 1,200 people, mostly militants, including the acknowledged Philippine IS leader, Isnilon Hapilon, and several foreign fighters.
Malaysia’s Sabah state is a short boat ride from islands in the Philippines’ Mindanao region, where pro-IS Muslim guerrillas and other armed Muslim groups operate. The waters between the two countries are extremely porous. According to analysts, the three nations share coastal borders that have long been used for smuggling routes.
Lorenzana, however, hopes that China eventually honors and respects the decision of the tribunal as it will lessen the external threat the Philippines is facing.
“If we can only get China to respect the ruling, it would be a big load from our back,” he said. “We could probably devote more of our resources to pressing problems at home. “
The second phase of the modernization program which starts in 2017 or early 2018 will be pursued as planned.
Adjustments, however, will be made in line with the new administration of President Rodrigo Duterte.
“We may have to tweak it a little so that we can address the priority of the new president,” he explained. “He said in his pronouncement a couple of weeks ago that we need more helicopters and night flying capabilities so that we can pursue these mandates, criminals, and terrorists that are trying to create trouble in the South.”
Talking to other countries is important because “the border is so porous and wide” and the Abu Sayyaf have shifted to kidnapping passengers of fishing boats.
We all know China has not bothered to honour the ruling and Duterte has tossed it aside completely. The arbitral ruling over the WPS might as well not have happened. As such Philippine patrol boats and planes are regularly harassed by Chinese military from their newly built bases in Scarborough Shoal and the WPS. But how much does this interference impede the Philippines' ability to patrol their own costs?
I can't say but I can say for sure that there are foreign jihadis running around the country. The AFP knows this and claims they are keeping an eye on them. Back in September 2019 they said there could be up to 60.
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The military commander for Western Mindanao, meanwhile, said troops were searching the region for about 60 suspected foreign militants, including people from Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia, Morocco and Afghanistan.
“They are scattered in our areas. They don’t have popular support. In due time, using our capabilities, we will neutralize them,” Lt. Gen. Cirilito Sobejana said, reiterating an earlier pledge that the foreign fighters would be accounted for by year’s end.
Now they say there are only 8.
Meanwhile, Arevalo said the AFP is still monitoring eight foreign terrorist groups and Abu Sayyaf sub-leader Hajan Sawadjaan of Sulu.
https://news.mb.com.ph/2019/12/11/improved-security-climate-in-mindanao-reason-for-non-extension-of-martial-law/
We also continue to read foreign analysis claiming the the Philippines is the new land of jihad and that more and more foreign jihadis will continue to make their way here. Whether they do or not it is imperative that the AFP secure the southern border and work closely with the BI to prevent would be terrorists from flying in through Manila.
Next week we will look at the remaining three areas of Policy, Foreign Assistance, and Marawi and Mindanao.
