Wednesday, June 13, 2018

53:1

They did it!  They finally did it!  And in record time too.  Maybe not record time. Six months.


The peso has finally dropped to 53:1! Isn't that exciting? Back in February they gave the inevitable until sometime throughout the year to happen.

http://business.inquirer.net/246320/peso-weaken-541
The peso may weaken to 53 against the US dollar through next year but this is a “manageable” adjustment necessary for the country to address infrastructure bottlenecks and sustain a higher growth path, a top economist of Ayala-led Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) said.
The golden age of infrastructure didn’t happen last year but we expect a significant amount to kick in this year,” Neri said, adding that spending on midterm elections would also allow growth to breach 7 percent in 2019. 
But with the Philippines catching up with all the capital spending needed to build new roads, bridges, power plants, railways and telecommunication infrastructure, importation of capital goods has expanded at a faster pace relative to exports, thereby widening the trade deficit. 
“The peso is underperforming once again and let me convince you that this is for very good reasons, very valid reasons, only partially political. Most of it is because the Philippines is one of the most exciting, most interesting economies in Asia, if not in the global economy, today,” Neri said.
The Golden Age of Infrastructure© did not begin last year but we can expect a SIGNIFICANT amount to kick in this year?  Really? How many of these projects have actually been implemented and are right now in the stages of construction? If the country is lacking workers how can the Golden Age of Infrastructure© even begin?

https://www.philstar.com/business/2017/09/17/1740032/infra-projects-lack-skilled-workers
Anyone with a modicum of sense knows that these economists are full of it. Read what Budget Secretary Diokno has to say.

http://news.abs-cbn.com/business/06/11/18/peso-nears-53-vs-1-economic-managers-not-worried
Diokno said a weak peso would increase the value of dollar remittances from Filipinos working abroad. Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said a weak peso would make local goods cheaper for buyers abroad.
If there is one thing commendable about Diokno it is that he has not strayed off message. From 2016:

http://news.abs-cbn.com/business/09/28/16/weak-peso-good-for-exports-remittances-finance-dept-says
"While the peso has moderately depreciated in nominal terms in recent weeks, the peso in real terms is still very strong, which deters competitiveness," said Finance Undersecretary Karl Kendrick Chua said. 
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran said the peso was just seeking its appropriate value given its significant appreciation in previous years. 
Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno, meanwhile, downplayed the impact of the peso's weakness against the US dollar, instead saying the recent slide could benefit local exporters and Filipinos receiving money from their relatives working abroad. 
"The peso is not deteriorating. It just moved a bit," he said. "It is good for OFW (overseas Filipino worker) families so it will boost aggregate spending." 
Has the weak peso been good for exports?

http://business.inquirer.net/250523/breaking-ph-exports-6-imports-6-8-q1
NO!! Exports are down.

Has a weak peso been good for the families of OFWs?

https://www.rappler.com/business/204113-inflation-rate-philippines-may-2018
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/money/economy/656569/peso-depreciation-to-drive-inflation-yet-good-for-philippine-exports/story/
NO! Inflation is up.
Exporters and families of overseas Filipino workers, as well as dollar earners are obviously going to benefit from a weaker peso, said University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) School of Economics Dean Cid Terosa. 

‘It will be good for those earning and sending dollars to the Philippines. Also, exporters will benefit because their products will be cheaper in the world market,” he said. 

Terosa cautioned, however, that a depreciating peso causes inflationary pressures. 

“For the general public, the weakening of the peso can translate to higher domestic prices—since prices of imported goods in pesos will move up. This can add to inflationary pressures,” he said.
Don't be confused by this headline. Exports are still down. But for those who are able to export their goods being able to trade on a weak peso will be good for them because foreign buyers can buy more Philippine goods for cheap but whose currency will still have to be traded in for a depreciated peso? That means a weak peso is more beneficial to foreigners than exporters! Is having your OFW family member sending you dollars really going to benefit you if domestic prices are higher? 

Why do these people keep insisting that a weak currency is good? Weakness is strength! It's reminiscent of 1984 albeit with all the terror replaced by a sublime stupidity.


My favourite analysis must be this one already quoted above:
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran said the peso was just seeking its appropriate value given its significant appreciation in previous years. 
Seeking its appropriate value? Like a man looking for the right gal. What significant appreciation in previous years is he talking about? Here is the ten year trend you tell me how Beltran's statement is  not utterly preposterous! Tell me how this trend of depreciation which began in 2013 is anywhere near temporary! When will the peso find its appropriate value? Just what is its appropriate value?

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=PHP&view=10Y
Maybe you are saying, "Shut up you aren't an economist." It's true. I am not an economist but I do know when someone is lying and these men are lying. I bet behind closed doors they are pulling their hair out in worry. Nah. On second thought these men are wealthy and will never have to face the hardships so many in this nation face.

They don't care.

1 comment:

  1. David,
    There was an article in The Star I believe it was about a power plant coming on line and Duterte was the ribbon cutter. The article went on to make it sound like Duterte started the project from scratch and no one else was involved goping by the headline. But if one bothered to read the whole article (which most Filipinos will not do)there is more to the story. Seems planning was started long before Duterte even ran for president and construction started in 2012 a full 2 years BEFORE Duterte even ran for president.

    ReplyDelete