Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Martial Law: We Didn't Take it Seriously

Last week Duterte finally assembled his National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict and a plan was formulated "to demonstrate genuine good governance for the betterment of the lives of the people" as a means of being a roundabout way to undermine the communists by solving the grievances of the people. This week he completely undermined the goals of this task force by saying that the government would offer no assistance to NPA members affected by the recent earthquake.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1110130/duterte-govt-wont-help-npa-members-affected-by-quake
After the presentation, Duterte remarked: “Pagka ang NPA nabaon doon, huwag mong tulungan. Gagastos lang ako sa mga p***** i**!” 
“Sabi na may nabaon doon na sampu o 20 NPAs there, just tell them that Duterte does not like to spend one centavo of fuel for the equipment to retrieve your comrades. He’s angry at you,” Duterte added.
This mad policy just further reinforces the fact that Duterte does not have a standard policy for dealing with the NPA. Does he want all out war? Does he want to bribe them back into regular society with money, housing, and jobs? Does he want to undermine their cause by providing good governance? Telling them that they will receive no help from the government only justifies their cause in their eyes.  It's not a good policy and it reeks of flip-flopping.

Duterte is very good at flip-flopping.  He is a fish out of water.  A mayor turned President who has attempted to govern the nation the same way he governed Davao. Saying one thing and doing another is a hallmark of his administration.  Now he has flipped on the rebuilding of Marawi.  Instead of the government rebuilding the city he wants to hand the job over to rich local businessmen.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1109961/duterte-to-let-rich-businessmen-spend-for-full-marawi-rehab
PRESIDENT DUTERTE: This is one — your office is one of those performing na maganda ‘yung housing ninyo. Pati ‘yung sa mga sundalo. 
But the thing I admired most was the speed that you built the houses in Marawi. Sabi nila Marawi is not yet ready to… The epicenter was really the downtown. I don’t think that I should be spending for their buildings. Hindi ako maggagasto ng ano. 
Marami man ‘yang pera ‘yang mga tao diyan. Every Maranao, there is a businessman. Kasali na ‘yang shabu. May pera sila. The debate there is whether I would be also building the same kind that they lost. I don’t think I am ready for that.
https://pcoo.gov.ph/presidential-speech/situation-briefing-on-the-effects-of-earthquake-in-region-iii-presided-over-by-president-rodrigo-duterte/
These words are so out of place it is difficult to take them seriously and apply any meaning to them. Is he definitely saying he won't rebuild Marawi? Then what about the billions allocated for the job?  What about the reconstruction which has already begun? Whatever he is saying it has angered and perplexed not a few people.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1110880/duterte-statement-on-marawi-rehab-may-fan-extremism
“It is the duty of the government to help in the city’s rehabilitation; it should not be left to the private sector. If not, the feeling that [the Marawi residents] were abandoned and left to fend for themselves by the national goverment would only be reinforced and may even lead to extremism,” said Bayan Muna chair and senatorial candidate Neri Colmenares.
It's not as if Muslims in Mindanao need an excuse to engage in terrorism. Violence is a daily way of life in Mindanao even if the inhabitants do not recognise it as such.  Here is the testimony of one woman who was trapped in Marawi as the siege began.
http://youngstar.ph/dispatches-warzone-university-students-firsthand-account-happened-marawi/
See, we truly lived in peace. Perhaps the only thing in our community that occasionally marred that peace is the so-called rido, or family feud, a social custom that either strengthens or destroys our families. So accustomed are we to it that the gunshots we hear as a consequence of rido have already become normal for us. We would think “Ah! It’s [just] rido. Better not butt in, because it’s their feud.” We would rather not interfere, because our family wouldn’t want to get involved in it. Instead, we put our faith in Allah and our local Datus to settle clan conflict. Other than that, though, it was a peaceful community.  No thieves, murderers, gangs, or rapists. 
I was living in a cottage in Mindanao State University, where I was on my second year of  BS Psychology. At the time, I was stressed over my final exam for the most difficult major subject I ever had. Then I began to receive messages with reports of an exchange of gunfire in downtown Marawi, warning that we should stay within the university campus to be safe. We didn’t take it seriously because we were accustomed to hearing gunshots because of rido. It was only later when we found out that the threat was beyond what we expected — that black flags had been raised in conquered buildings, establishments were burnt, as a battle raged between local terrorists and the government troops that tried to stop them. 
By 7:00 p.m., I was still studying for my exam. My family, who at the time lived 30 minutes away in Balindong, was so worried about me. They tirelessly searched for ways to get me out of the vicinity of the war zone. Still preoccupied with my studies, I said no. I said I couldn’t go home because I had an exam the next morning. 
A while later I received messages saying that the local terrorist group was already planning to enter the university and behead all the Christians they met, and that they already took Father Chito, a local Christian priest, hostage. Hearing this, I took a break from my studies and observed my surroundings. I saw my cottagemates over the phone talking to their parents. Some were crying out of fear, some had already packed their things, planning to leave the next morning. It was then that it finally sunk in for me, that this thing was not just a rido, that the war nobody ever expected or wanted to happen here had begun. 
I thought of my non-Muslim friends, knowing thay they must be terrified of the news. I immediately sent each of them the kalima shahada, which read “there is no God but Allah, and the Prophet Muhammad is the last messenger of Allah.” I told them to recite it so they would be prepared to answer and pass as Muslims if they ever met any of the terrorists. I composed stories they could tell, should the terrorists still suspect them because of their accent, such as pretending that they were reverts to Islam, were half Meranaos, or they grew up in a non-Muslim area. My roommates and I also packed our own things, and slept wearing our veils and shoes, prepared to run if there ever was an attack. The next morning, and on my way to my aunt’s home, I dropped by my friends’ cottages to distribute my extra veils, so they could cover their hair on their way home.
This lady starts out by saying Marawi was peaceful and everyone lived in peace. Then she says except for rido which means feuds.  These feuds are very violent Hatfield vs. McCoy type feuds with lots of gunfire and bodies piling up which she refers to as a "social custom." But at least there were no thieves, murderers (what about rido!?), gangs (what about armed families engaged in rido!?), and rapists. She continues the story by telling us that she continued with her studies totally ignoring the reports of gunfire in the city attributing it to rido because that kind of very unpeaceful violence was a normal part of life in peaceful Marawi. It was not until she heard reports that the university was going to be invaded and Christians beheaded that it "finally sunk in for me, that this thing was not just a rido."

The life she describes is the same other refugees described after fleeing Marawi.
"On the first day, we weren't too bothered because it was just gunshots. Marawi has always been very chaotic: family feuds or fights over women and money. They're called 'rido' (honour killings). When it's a 'rido', the police don't bother following up." 
https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2017/08/martial-law-no-live-target.html
Take note how this man describes Marawi as always having been chaotic because of rido whereas the lady above describes it as peaceful despite rido. When the inhabitants of a city aren't bothered by gunfire because it is a normal part of life and violent feuds are written off as social customs then its a sure thing the violence will continue irrespective of whatever the government does. Ending rido is viewed as a major goal in the MILF's decommissioning process and in securing peace in the BARMM. If there is no more rido then MILF  fighters will give up their guns more easily.
According to Galvez, local forms of conflict such as rido or family feud and the presence of private armed group, which are major concerns among ethnic minorities in the southern Philippines, should also be addressed in the Normalization process.   
He noted the reasons that fuel such conflict include land disputes, local politics, grid for power and resources, “generational” ethnic misunderstanding and stereotyping among warring families. 
Sammy Almansoor, also known as Sammy Gambar, former MILF’s Chief of Staff and now Minister for Environment in the BARMM, agreed with Galvez’ observation. 
“It is crucial to take away the sense of insecurities in the communities for our combatants not to use their arms anymore,” he said. 
Alamzor said “the real normalization begins from the heart.”
https://www.luwaran.com/news/article/1786/groundwork_for_decommissioning_of_milf_forces__weapons__communities_readied
Duterte's statements about Marawi might not only fuel extremism but they also tear into the successful implementation of the BARMM.
https://www.bworldonline.com/tpmt-cites-marawi-city-rehabilitation-as-one-of-crucial-components-in-bangsamoro-transition/
  • Ensure that the immediate rehabilitation of Marawi City is respectful and responsive to its residents.
  • Monitor and support efforts to ensure the immediate rehabilitation of Marawi City that respects and responds to the proposals of the local residents especially of the most affected areas. The circumstances and roots of these events, including the recent bombing of the Jolo Cathedral and the mosque in Zamboanga City, should also be intensively researched, in order to develop programs that will holistically and proactively prevent violent extremism.
http://tpmt.ph/sites/default/files/TPMT%205th%20Public%20Report%2C%20Jul%202017%20to%20Feb%202019_0.pdf
Whatever Duterte says or does the propensity for violence and extremism in Mindanao remains high. It is a way of life. The deadly church bombings on Easter Sunday in Sri Lanka naturally put the PNP and AFP on high alert. With the help of vigilant citizens bombs were found in a chapel in Sultan Kudarat. But even though they were discovered one of them exploded causing damage to the church.

https://www.philstar.com/nation/2019/04/23/1911930/ied-damages-unfinished-chapel-sultan-kudarat
Experts on Monday deactivated one of two improvised bombs found in a chapel in Lambayong, Sultan Kudarat but the other exploded during an attempt to defuse it. 
The Army’s 6th Infantry Division said the outlawed Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters was behind the attempt to bomb the chapel in Barangay Pimbalayan in Lambayong town. 
Major Gen. Cirilito Sobejana, commander of 6th ID, said Tuesday the bombing attempt was meant to avenge the deaths of more than a dozen BIFF bomb-makers killed in clashes with soldiers in the past eight weeks.
How does the AFP know who the perpetrators are and what their motive is already? Perhaps it is a copycat bomber? Perhaps it is on order from ISIS top command? Bombings continue to occur in Sultan Kudarat. There will probably be more. Perhaps Duterte should issue a travel warning for that city as he did for Zamboanga.

https://news.mb.com.ph/2019/04/23/president-issues-travel-alert-to-zamboanga/
“There is a certain place which I would not recommend to anybody to go there, not just as yet, is Zamboanga,” Duterte said during the 7th Union Asia Pacific Regional Conference in Pasay City Tuesday night. 
“Some Europeans go there for the bird watching and they are captured and eventually decapitated even after the payment of ransom,” he said. 
Duterte claimed the security threat was coming from the Islamic State and the Abu Sayyaf Group which “do nothing but kill and destroy.” “It’s the ISIS actually. it used to be the Abu Sayyaf, it’s a band of brigands but now it’s an Abu Sayyaf territory,” he said.
The commander-in-chief said he was pleased with the military’s recent accomplishments against the Abu Sayyaf Group. “Your efforts have brought us even closer to our ultimate objective of totally crushing the violent extremism at its roots,” he said. 
Concerned about the threat from IS-inspired militants, Duterte has also advised government troops to “die a warrior” rather than risk getting captured and tortured by the enemies.
A travel warning for a city in Mindanao flies in the face of the government's repeated assertions that Mindanao is safe.  That martial law even increased tourism in the region. When foreign governments issue travel warnings for the Philippines the government does all it can to repudiate and counteract them but now it is the President himself who is issuing a travel warning. The Department of Tourism must be nonplussed.

When Duterte issues a travel warning because of the presence of Abu Sayyaf and also congratulates the AFP for their campaign against Abu Sayyaf it would seem he is speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Just how close is Abu Sayyaf to being defeated? 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1104920/duterte-isis-will-never-gain-a-foothold-anywhere-in-ph
In his Day of Valor speech in Camp Teodulfo Bautista in Jolo, Sulu, Duterte lauded the military’s accomplishments against the Abu Sayyaf Group, a known ally of the ISIS. 
“I am especially pleased with our military’s recent accomplishments against the Abu Sayyaf Group. Your efforts have brought us even closer to our ultimate objective of totally crushing the violent extremism at its roots,” he said, 
“With this, I can confidently declare that ISIS will never gain a foothold anywhere in the Philippines,” he added. 
While admitting that the ISIS was a cause of concern of the government, the President assured the public the military would fight the terrorist group. 
Well, of course, there is the ISIS that we have to worry here in — well in this part of Sulu, up and down Basilan. We’ll just have to fight and fight,” he said. “That’s why I said, when you fight, I will protect you, the utmost. I have given almost all of your requests.” 
The commander in chief assured the military of his commitment to continue to modernize the AFP. 
“We are doing everything to ensure that our military personnel will be able to perform their mandate efficiently and to the best of their ability. We will, therefore, continue to implement the AFP Modernization Program even as we remain committed to looking after the welfare of our men and women in uniform,” he said.
How can Duterte declare victory against ISIS and then in the next breath say ISIS is still a worrisome problem? Every time the death of ISIS has been proclaimed the group has rebounded and proven such reports were premature. The recent bombings in Sri Lanka proves they are not dead at all but have entered a new phase of operations. Perhaps the AFP should keep their head down and continue this fight to the very end before any overconfident victory is declared.

The Third Party Monitoring Team Report (TPMT) mentioned above in connection with the rebuilding of Marawi has some important things to say about the decommissioning of MILF forces.
We note that the overall progress for the implementation of the normalization component of the peace process has rather been slow and has significant delays in several aspects. Given that the ratification of the BOL would trigger the decommissioning of 30% of MILF forces and weapons, there is an expectation that there would be rapid developments immediately after the plebiscite. However, some crucial issues remain unresolved, such as on the list of combatants (whether it should be partial or full) and the arrangements for storing MILF weapons. The issue of the carrying of firearms of the MILF contingent of the Joint Peace and Security Teams (JPSTs) also remains unresolved. 
Moreover, the measures undertaken to provided socio-economic packages for the initial 145 decommissioned combatants, as well as for by the transformation of camps still do not seem to meet the expectations of the individuals and the local communities.
http://tpmt.ph/sites/default/files/TPMT%205th%20Public%20Report%2C%20Jul%202017%20to%20Feb%202019_0.pdf
Those socio-economic packages are not going to be cheap.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1110850/galvez-p1-2b-needed-as-aid-to-milf-fighters
The government will need P1.2 billion as “goodwill” cash aid to some 12,000 combatants of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) who will be decommissioned as part of the normalization process in areas under the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Presidential Peace Adviser Carlito Galvez Jr. said on Thursday. 
Galvez said each decommissioned MILF fighter would be receiving P100,000 in cash once the foreign-led Independent Decommissioning Body (IDB) had validated their identities. 
“There is no provision in the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro [CAB] that surrendered firearms will be remunerated but as a goodwill of the government … the immediate cash of P25,000 and initial livelihood cash support of P75,000 will be given [to each decommissioned MILF member],” Galvez told the Inquirer in a text message. 
Scholarships and skills training would also be provided to the decommissioned MILF fighters and their families to help them become competitive and productive members of mainstream society, Galvez added.
How are these fighters going to be validated as such? It will be the MILF who will provide the lists and who is to say their lists are correct? They could put down anyone and 100,000 pesos in cash is very tempting. Just imagine being a law abiding citizen and you live and die in poverty but these terrorists get 100,000 pesos.  Does that sound like goodwill?

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