Insurgency: Spot the Difference

It's a brand new year but it's the same old Mindanao. Martial law has been lifted but what does that matter when, lest we forget, the Philippines lies under a state of national emergency on account of lawless violence as per Proclamation 55 signed by Duterte in 2016. This proclamation states the following:

NOW THEREFORE, I, RODRIGO ROA DUTERTE, President of the Republic of the Philippines, by virtue of the powers vested upon me by Section 18, Article VII of the Philippine Constitution, do hereby proclaim a state of national emergency on account of lawless violence, and hereby command the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National Police to undertake such measures as may be permitted by the Constitution and existing laws to suppress any and all forms of lawless violence in Mindanao and to prevent such lawless violence from spreading and escalating elsewhere in the Philippines, with due regard to the fundamental civil and political rights of our citizens.

Isn't it the everyday, ordinary, regular job of the PNP and AFP to suppress violence in Mindanao and elsewhere? What is the difference between martial law and a state of emergency? A state of emergency and no state of emergency?

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/01/03/1981558/spot-difference-mindanao-martial-law-vs-state-national-emergency

Brig. Gen. Edgard Arevalo, Armed Forces of the Philippines spokesperson, said that Proclamation 55, "Declaring a State of National Emergency on Account of Lawless Violence in Mindanao,” remains in effect along with roaming troops. 

The Marine officer said there will be fewer checkpoints and soldiers patrolling the region, but maintained that security procedures will still be strictly observed. 

“If our enemies will see that we become relaxed in terms of security, they may slip through again,” Arevalo told DZMM on Thursday morning.

(Our operations will continue although certain areas where the security situation has improved will see fewer operations.) 

Parts of Mindanao have had a heavy military presence even prior to the declaration of martial law, Proclamation 55, and even the Duterte administration. 

However, the president himself equates the state of national emergency with martial law. 

“Remember that there is – there’s no difference actually between martial law and a declaration of national emergency. So I’ve been warning all. I’m warning all, including the human rights, it’s either we behave or we will have a serious problem again,” Duterte said in June 2018. 

Proclamation No. 55 cites lawless violence in Mindanao but covers the entire country and has been cited in the deployment of troops in other parts of the Philippines.

Duterte is obviously wrong that martial law is the same as a declaration of national emergency. Martial law means military rule and its administration is usually through an autocrat like Marcos. However the implementation of martial law in Mindanao since 2017 was hardly been anything like one would expect. A few checkpoints here and there but "hardly noticeable."

But in much of Mindanao, martial law is hardly noticeable. Around the port city Cagayan de Oro, for example, cars stop only between the domestic airport and downtown for routine checks. Police do not enforce curfews in the downtown mega-malls, upscale restaurants and major high-rise hotel. 

https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2019/10/martial-law-rebellion-must-be-stopped.html

It seems that there will be only a name change but no change in the operations of the AFP.  They will maintain checkpoints and they will deploy troops as needed. Their goal, as ever, is to crush the insurgency.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/12/18/1977947/duterte-afp-crush-terrorists-npa

Days after his latest peace overture with communist rebels, President Duterte has ordered the military to crush all terror groups that he said should include the New People’s Army (NPA). 

“Another enemy that’s ruining lives is the terrorists, including the NPA, the kidnap-for-ransom, and the Abu Sayyaf in Jolo. My order is, if they fight, crush them to put an end to Filipinos’ problem,” Duterte said in Filipino in his speech before military officers and personnel at the 84th anniversary celebration of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) yesterday at Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City.

It's funny that Duterte told them to crush the NPA when he is attempting to resume peace talks with the CPP and when the AFP is bribing NPA soldiers to surrender via E-CLIP. As for Abu Sayyaf, the AFP might just get some help from the MNLF.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1201958/misuari-vows-to-help-govt-crush-abu-sayyaf

“There is no place for them to go. We can assure the President that the MNLF will fully support the resolution of this problem. Try us on how effective we are,”Misuari said in a statement released by the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (OPAPP). 

OPAPP Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. said the military, police and MNLF forces on the ground could establish “close coordination” efforts through the peace coordinating committee to run after the terror groups.

Misuari offered to help fight against Maute during the Marawi siege and Duterte accepted the offer but the MNLF was never utilised. Last year Duterte has promised to create an MNLF region comprising Sulu and Tawi-Tawi which are Abu Sayyaf strongholds. Misuari's offer of help to crush Abu Sayyaf is by no means altruistic. 

Why does Duterte continue to deal with Misuari, a notorious terrorist, as if he is a normal person? Duterte appointed Misuari envoy to the OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation). This did not sit well with people in Zamboanga city.

The appointment, however, has not been well received by some people in Zamboanga, a city sacked by Misuari and his men six years ago. More than 200 people were killed in more than two weeks of urban warfare, with a section of the city razed. The fighting displaced about 100,000 residents. 

“We are still in the process of healing. We lost our homes and had to live in evacuation centers. And they are rewarding the person who led the attack?” said one resident, who lost her home during the MNLF siege. 

The woman, who declined to give her name to BenarNews, said the fighting broke up and uprooted her family in Zamboanga. She, her husband and their five children ended up having to stay at an evacuation camp for two years, she said. 

“It has been a tough several years for us,” she told BenarNews. “All because of Misuari.”

https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/MNLF-leader-OIC-12172019143643.html

Last month Misuari also held a rally in Manila calling for RevGov and Federalism. 

https://www.rappler.com/nation/247689-mnlf-leads-new-call-duterte-declare-revolutionary-government

Hundreds of supporters of President Rodrigo Duterte gathered in separate areas in Manila and Cebu on Saturday, December 21, to urge the Chief Executive to declare a revolutionary government and quickly set up a federalist system. 

At the Quirino Grandstand in Manila, members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and Cordillera People’s Liberation Army wearing combat overalls carried flags and tarpaulins exclaiming “RevGov Na! (RevGov Now!)” 

The two former rebel groups had entered into previous peace agreements with past presidents, the MNLF with the Ramos adminstration and the CPLA with the Cory Aquino government.  

In Cebu, hundreds of supporters flocked to the Cebu City Sports Complex to show support for the same agenda: for Duterte to declare a revolutionary government and break up the country into federal states. They waved an MNLF flag and a Philippine flag throughout the event.

What was said at these events I do not know because except for the report above no media covered these events. An internationally known terrorist and his army calls for RevGov and apparently that is not news. What a sorry state the Philippine media is in. Here are a few pictures from that rally.

Federalism is an issue Misuari said he would go to war about if it was not implemented. Why is he calling for it now? What is his endgame? Does he even have a plan? Why not lock him up for his crimes? It was Duterte who asked the courts to suspend his arrest order over his role in the Zamboanga siege. Why did he do this if he wants the AFP to crush terrorists? Why is Misuari strutting around at Camp Aguinaldo for the installation of the new AFP Chief?

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1209129/duterte-tells-afp-remain-relentless-in-fight-vs-lawlessness-terrorism

“I trust that you will work in unison with the incoming Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Felimon Santos Jr. as you remain steadfast in protecting our country against lawlessness and terrorism,” Duterte said in his speech at the Change of Command ceremony at the Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City.

Pretty ironic headline to accompany this photograph of one of the instigators of lawlessness and terrorism in the Philippines for the past 50 years! But it could be over soon. The new AFP Chief says he wants to end the insurgency by the end of his seven month term.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/720815/incoming-afp-chief-to-focus-on-ending-communist-insurgency/story/

"[The] urgent task to end local communist armed conflict through the implementation of Executive Order No. 70," Santos told GMA News Online when asked on what would be the focus of his leadership.

End the insurgency through E-CLIP.  That is his plan.  Not to crush them and destroy them through military force but to build roads, literal roads, and bribe NPA soldiers with housing, cash, and job training. He is sure he the AFP can do this by the end of Duterte's term in June 2022.

"We are conifdent that we will end insurgency before the end of the President's term," he said in an ambush interview after the ceremony. 

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/721040/new-afp-chief-santos-assumes-post-vows-pro-action-vs-local-terrorists-drug-problem/story/

2020 promises to be more of the same. More NPA attacks. More Islamic terrorist attacks. More surrenders and arrests of terrorists. More setting of deadlines which will not be reached. More reliance on the US military to assist the AFP. More flip-flopping from Duterte concerning the CPP. More business as usual in Mindanao.