Martial Law: MNLF Region

It's been 7 months now since the referendum on the BOL which lead to the formation of the BARMM. Since then the leaders of the BARMM, the MILF, have been hard at work crafting legislation to govern the new region. As of now they do not have a budget and are working without pay.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/698382/bangsamoro-transition-officials-staff-unpaid-for-months-now-says-member/story/

The 80 members of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority and their respective staff have received no salaries since the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao was established four months ago. 

Lawyer Laisa Masuhud Alamia, a member of the BTA, said the transition panel remained largely unfunded. 

“I cannot say how much talaga ang amount… pero ‘yung salaries, wala. We also don’t have any physical office yet, all of us [BTA members] We are just using the Sharif Kabunsuan Cultural Center for our plenary sessions,” Alamia said. 

Alamia said the BTA had been making do with the leftover budget of the abolished ARMM’s Regional Legislative Assembly. 

She said it wouldn't be enough to cover the salaries of the BTA members and their staff, and the conduct of workshops and other meetings for parliament work. 

“That budget from the Regional Legislative Assembly] has no budget for personnel services and capital outlay. We have been spending from our personal money, including our staff,” Alamia said.

The lack of funds is due to the fact that when the budget was written there was no BARMM and the Congress could obviously not allocate funds to a non-existent entity. That is why the BARMM is utilising the leftover budget of the ARMM. Compounding the problems is that the 2019 budget was greatly delayed and not passed until April 2019.  Hopefully 2020 will see this problem rectified and the budget passed on time as the BARMM has been allotted P70.6 billion in funds.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/08/24/1945919/bangsamoro-region-get-p706-billion-budget-next-year

The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) will be given some P70.6 billion next year to help boost peace and development in the region. 

Of the amount, P63.6 billion represents the annual block grant; and P5 billion as Special Development Fund. Included in the total allocation is P17.7 billion for infrastructure development. 

The BARMM, however, will also have its own internally generated funds in the form of retained taxes estimated at P1.4 billon annually; allocations from national government agencies, P15 billion; and Internal Revenue Allotment, P25 billion.

This money is not the only money allotted "to help boost peace" in the region. The AFP has also been granted funds by the Office of the Presidential Advisor on the Peace Process (OPAPP) to assist in the decommissioning of 40,000 MILF fighters.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1078587

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (OPAPP) forged an agreement on Thursday to formalize their partnership in decommissioning 40,000 Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) combatants and their weapons in the next three years. 

At the signing ceremony of the memorandum of agreement, AFP Chief of Staff, Gen. Benjamin Madrigal Jr. underscored the importance of the collaboration between OPAPP and the AFP in pushing forward the Bangsamoro peace process 

"The MOA that we signed today is not only about the transfer of funds from OPAPP to the Armed Forces but more importantly, it signifies our commitment to continue with the process of healing, and the process of normalization in the Bangsamoro," he said. 

"We have long dreamed for peace in the Bangsamoro region," Madrigal said, noting that maintaining the "mutual trust" between the government and the MILF is crucial in the normalization process.

How much funds will be transferred to the AFP to assist in the decommission of 40,000 MILF combatants? P781.3 million.

https://www.dswd.gov.ph/dswd-opapp-ink-agreement-to-implement-socio-economic-interventions-for-milf-decommissioned-combatants/

The agreement shall formalize the P781.3 million funding support of OPAPP to DSWD for the implementation of the socio-economic interventions to help decommissioned combatants (DCs) of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) settle in their communities and live normal lives. These include the Bangsamoro Transitory Family Support Package (BTFSP) with a cash grant of ₱80,000 and Livelihood Settlement Grant (LSG) amounting to ₱20,000. 

The BTFSP is an immediate cash assistance adapting the Emergency Cash Transfer (ECT) strategy. The project is designed to address the need for food and non-food items (family kit, hygiene kit, sleeping kit, etc.) of the DCs and their families. 

On the other hand, the LSG may be used as seed capital to start micro-enterprises or to purchase starter kits for the re-establishment of damaged livelihood.

That amounts to only P100,000 per fighter. Is that enough? It's certainly more than was offered in 2015.

During the ceremonies, the MILF firearms will be turned over to the Independent Decommissioning Body, while decommissioned combatants will undergo a registration, verification, and validation process, after which, they will be provided immediate cash assistance amounting to P25,000 and PhilHealth Cards.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/697970/milf-proceeding-with-decommissioning-process-as-ultimate-sacrifice-for-peace

According to a recent report buy the International Crisis Group many were disappointed with that paltry package.

The success of decommissioning rests foremost on the benefits package promised to former combatants who lay down their arms. Only a small proportion of former MILF fighters, numbering in the hundreds, are likely to be able to enter the regional police force, and others will be disinclined to do so given it is not controlled by the Bangsamoro authority. Socio-economic benefits made available to the 145 fighters demobilised in 2015 reportedly failed to meet those combatants’ and their communities’ expectations. That said, though details are still being worked out, the MILF leadership has expressed confidence that government and international partners who work on the issue will improve the package for the next phase. Officials have indicated that vocational training and scholarships will be offered to combatants and their family members. The government says it will offer 100,000 pesos ($1,925) in cash to each combatant as a goodwill measure.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/philippines/301-philippines-militancy-and-new-bangsamoro

While the DSWD has transferred P781.3 million to the OPAPP which has in turn been transferred to the AFP which will then be disbursed to decommissioned MILF terrorists much more will be needed to fully accommodate all 40,000 men.  Only 12,000 are set to be decommissioned for now and Presidential Peace Advisor Galvez believes much more is needed just for them.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1110850/galvez-p1-2b-needed-as-aid-to-milf-fighters

The government will need P1.2 billion as “goodwill” cash aid to some 12,000 combatants of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) who will be decommissioned as part of the normalization process in areas under the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Presidential Peace Adviser Carlito Galvez Jr. said on Thursday. 

Galvez said each decommissioned MILF fighter would be receiving P100,000 in cash once the foreign-led Independent Decommissioning Body (IDB) had validated their identities. 

Scholarships and skills training would also be provided to the decommissioned MILF fighters and their families to help them become competitive and productive members of mainstream society, Galvez added.

The International Crisis Group's report warns that if the package is not good enough MILF members could defect to extremist groups.

Decommissioning will be vital to preventing former MILF combatants from joining militant groups. A minister in the transition authority said: 

I told the Philippine government we need a better package because we have com- petition [from extremist groups] [...] Combatants will be watching. Does some- thing good happen for the first batch [to decommission]? Important that it works well, for us and for the government.

Fighters who feel abandoned by their leaders could join armed groups outside the peace process. An MNLF supporter said, “If they can’t care for the [MILF] combatants, BIFF is waiting for them”.

How else can one read that except as the MILF holding the Philippine government hostage? Give us money or we will continue to fight. 

What the Muslims in Mindanao really want is self-rule and autonomy. That is why the MNLF was formed back in 1972 and is why the MILF broke away in 1977. The result of the MNLF's talks with the government lead to the formation of the ARMM in 1989 which was headed by MNLF terrorists only to fall apart and make way for the BARMM which is now headed by MILF terrorists.  MNLF leader Misuari has expressed hopes that the BARMM will bing peace but he also feels left out in the cold which is why Duterte is thinking of how he can best placate his friend.

https://www.manilatimes.net/duterte-open-to-creation-of-mnlf-region/603454/

President Rodrigo Duterte is open to the creation of a regional government for the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), his top peace adviser said on Tuesday. 

“Titignan po natin kasi nakikita po natin na ‘yung (We will look into this because we see that the) BARMM is subdivided. Meron tayong tinatawag na (We have what we call) deputy for the mainland, and then deputy for Lanao, and then deputy for the Basulta (Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi) area. And I believe ‘yung MNLF na Misuari group, they are more predominant [in] the Basulta area,” Galvez said, referring to

MNLF founding Chairman Nur Misuari.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1150451/duterte-praying-misuari-will-be-enlightened-to-settle-issues-with-mnlf

The President also reiterated that he is hoping Misuari would accept the “same terms’ the government offered to MILF chair and now BARMM interim chief minister Murad Ebrahim. 

“Meron tayong MNLF, that is the Sulu up to Tawi-Tawi area. I am praying that Nur Misuari will be enlightened and will be able to accept maybe the same terms that we have extended to Murad,” Duterte said. 

“That is the only way (for peace) without wreckage in our society,” he added.

Duterte recently met for the third time with Misuari and Bong Go indicates this is only the beginning.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1157532/duterte-meets-with-misuari-anew-bigger-meetings-eyed

Go said Duterte and Misuari are eyeing to meet again with “bigger groups” as the government seeks to further boost peace efforts in Mindanao. 

“‘Yung usapan, maybe magkakaroon pa ng mga follow-up meetings but between bigger groups na po. Siguro maybe para panel na ‘yung makikipag-usap on both sides (Perhaps there will a meeting with bigger groups in then future),”  Go told reporters on the sidelines of the National Heroes Day rites at the Libingan ng mga Bayani in Taguig City.

To what bigger groups could he be referring? BIFF? Abu Sayyaf?

Apparently the only prospect for peace is to allow terrorists to rule over a divided up Mindanao. If the ARMM failed and it was run by the MNLF then why would a new MNLF headed region succeed? Negotiating  with Misuari, who is only temporarily free from jail at the moment because of his role in the 2013 Zamboanga siege, in a bid to further divide Mindanao is a crazy notion. But is it any crazier than Duterte requesting P4.9 billion in intelligence funds for his office?

https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/8/22/panelo-office-of-the-president-intelligence-funds-2020-budget.html

Under the proposed budget, the Office of the President has a total budget of ₱8.2 billion, with ₱4.5 billion allocated for oversight management on national security concerns. 

"You really need money if you want to secure your country, and the Office of the President is one of the better offices that can secure the security of the land," Panelo said in a press briefing Thursday. 

Meanwhile, the Secretary of the National Defense has a proposed budget of ₱10 million for intelligence funds. The proposed intelligence funds for the Philippine Navy is ₱39.7 million. 

Panelo said that should the Defense Secretary run short of funds, he could always ask from the Office of the President. 

"The Office of the President can provide funds for that also pag humingi si Secretary of Defense (when the Defense Secretary asks) when it comes to security," Panelo said, adding funds can be released quickly. 

He also defended President Rodrigo Duterte when asked about possible corruption, and said that he is "number 1" when it comes to people who hate corruption.

Why would the Office of the President need more funds for intelligence that the DND and the Navy combined? That is absolutely nuts and so is the assertion that Duterte can simply transfer money to the DND if they run out. Where is the accountability and oversight? All the money spent on intelligence cannot fix the fact that, as per the US military, the AFP has an "inability to collect, process, and disseminate intelligence."

One of the primary objectives of OPE-P is to build the AFP’s capability to use ISR in operations against ISIS-P. USSOCPAC reported to the DoD OIG this quarter that the AFP had limited ability to collect information on a target and provide that intelligence to a unit on the ground to act on it. 

According to USSOCPAC, this inability to collect, process, and disseminate intelligence was the result of several problems. First, the AFP lacks ISR assets. Second, the AFP does not have a “Production, Exploitation, and Dissemination cell” capable of synthesizing ISR information and providing it to a decision-making entity. Third, the AFP suffers from an institutional problem, using its limited ISR assets for live tracking of active operations to “provide a semblance of battle tracking for friendly and suspected enemy elements” rather than strategic threat analysis. 

USSOCPAC stated that because of these challenges, the AFP relies heavily on the DoD and its contractors’ ISR capabilities to identify the locations of suspected enemy activity and provide intelligence products for their use. According to USSOCPAC, the desired end state is for the AFP to meet its own needs for ISR support to counterterrorism operations, including the capacity to target and conduct lethal operations against multiple violentextremist threats, without DoD assistance. 

USSOCPAC stated that the AFP lacks the infrastructure necessary for its ground units to communicate effectively with ISR air controllers. In order to improve the AFP’s ISR equipment, USSOCPAC was providing an intelligence training package, “analyst notebook software,” multiple unmanned aerial vehicle systems, tactical command posts, and other equipment to increase command and control, situational awareness, and operational security. Additionally this quarter, the AFP worked toward obtaining cellular applications to enable ground units to obtain data directly from their own ISR assets, according to USSOCPAC.

https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2019/05/martial-law-hearts-and-minds.html

Who can forget the debacle of the Marawi siege? Intel was ignored and so the attack proceeded as planned. These funds would be better spent on the rebuilding of Marawi which everyone acknowledges is key to achieving peace and stability in the region.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1156489/govt-budget-for-marawi-rehab-from-2018-2020-just-28-of-the-needed-fund

The budget allotted for the Marawi rehabilitation from 2018 to 2020 is just 28 percent of the P60.506 billion needed to fully restore the war-torn Islamic city. 

This emerged during the interpellation of Lanao del Norte 1st District Rep. Mohamad Khalid Dimaporo to Department of Budget and Management Acting Secretary Wendel Avisado during the House appropriations committee budget briefing, Thursday. 

Avisado said the funding given for Marawi rehabilitation in 2018 and 2019 were P10 billion and P3.5 billion, respectively. Another P3.5 billion was earmarked for the rehabilitation under the P4.1 trillion proposed National Expenditure Plan of the DBM. 

In total, a measly P17 billion was allocated for the restoration of the city destroyed by fighting between the government forces and the ISIS-inspired Maute group in May 2017. This is far behind the P60.5 billion needed to fully revamp the area. 

“So we’ve established that we’re not even halfway in terms of funding the rehabilitation of Marawi,” Dimaporo lamented. 

Dimaporo also called “pitiful” Avisado’s confirmation that the utilization rate of the Task Force Bangon Marawi was “less than 10 percent.”

Less than 10% of P17 billion has been utilised in the rebuilding of Marawi. Of course not much rebuilding can be done because the AFP is still clearing the area of bombs but that hardly explains anything. Where is the P35 billion foreign governments have pledged for the rebuilding of the city?

https://www.dof.gov.ph/index.php/phl-receives-p35-1-b-pledges-for-bangon-marawi-rehab-program/

The Philippines has received a total of P35.1 billion (about $670 million) in pledges from the international community to aid in the ongoing rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts for the damaged city of Marawi in Mindanao, Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III said here Wednesday (Nov. 28). 

Of the P35.1 billion in pledges, P32.7 billion will be in the form of concessional financing, while P2.4 billion will be in grants.  

He said the government’s planned issuance of Marawi bonds amounting to P13.5 billion (about USD258 million), budgetary support, and the P35.1 billion ($670 million) in pledges from the international community will more than cover the P47.2-billion financing requirement for the BMCRRP. 

According to Dominguez, the government determined that the overall financing requirement for Marawi would amount to P72.58 billion ($1.39 billion) over a five-year period up to 2022. 

Of this amount, P47.20 billion ($901 million) is needed for the BMCRRP; P17.20 billion ($328.3 million) that will be 100 percent sourced from local funding will be spent to rehabilitate the Most Affected Areas; and P1.25 billion ($23.9 million) will be spent for livelihood assistance, which would also be fully sourced from local funds. The overall financing requirement also includes the P6.9 billion ($131.7 million) in humanitarian assistance required during the early stages of the recovery program for Marawi.  

Dominguez said 58 percent of this overall financing requirement will come from foreign sources while local funds will be used for the remaining 42 percent needed for the entire effort to rehabilitate and reconstruct the city.

Where is all this money? Don't forget the COA has already flagged the HUDCC for transferring funds meant for Marawi victims to be used for Hajj pilgrims! Task Force Bangon Marawi also receives operating expenses totalling P500 million form the HUDCC. What little rebuilding could be done had to stop as the companies hired did not have the proper requirements. Rebuilding will not recommence until December. Maybe.

https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/Marawi-reconstruction-08152019151511.html

The rebuilding of war-ruined sections of Marawi will be delayed until December, after the military finishes clearing the southern city of unexploded ordnance left over from a 2017 battle with Islamic State-linked militants, an official in charge of reconstruction said. 

Apart from unexploded bombs, the delay in reconstruction is also being caused by a reluctance among homeowners to allow army engineers to demolish their badly damaged structures, he said. 

Del Rosario, who arrived here to inform residents at one relocation site, said he expected the government’s search for unexploded ordnance (UXOs) and the demolition of the ruined buildings to finally be completed before early November. 

“I was told that all the debris and unexploded ordnance will be cleared by late October,” del Rosario said Thursday. 

Reconstruction in the former battleground could only begin once safety engineers had determined the area to be safe, he said. 

Del Rosario said he expected construction of “vertical structures” like houses and buildings to start by December after the debris management and unexploded ordnances ceased. 

“That is our timetable to ensure that we can complete the rehabilitation of the most affected area by December 2021,” Del Rosario told displaced families at a camp in the village of Boganga. 

Del Rosario said owners who still refused to give permission would have to pay for the demolition of their buildings.

Call me cynical but I don't think debris will be cleared by October nor will all the unexploded ordnance be recovered by then either. It's a slow going process and the AFP has said there are at least 30 more bombs needed to be found. With their rate being one found per month this process is going to take much longer than they think.