Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Martial Law: A Legitimate Act of War

Remember in the aftermath of the latest suicide bombing the PNP and the AFP both said they would beef up their intelligence gathering?  It seems they have not done this most simple thing.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/236102-afp-reports-foreign-terrorists-sulu-basilan-maguindanao
Seven “foreign terrorists” are at large in Sulu, Maguindanao, and Basilan, according to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Western Mindanao Command (WestMinCom). 
WestMinCom chief Lieutenant General Cirilito Sobejana said the 7 foreigners are “embedded” with local terror groups with links to the international terror group, the Islamic State (ISIS): the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF). Another 42 people are “watchlisted and being monitored” for possible terror links. 
Sobejana said the foreign suspects are grooming the groups’ members to become bombers, or even suicide bombers, and training them in “other terroristic actions.”
The AFP has confirmed the presence of at least 7 foreign terrorists in Mindanao. But the PNP must have been cut out of the loop because they say this information needs confirming.

https://globalnation.inquirer.net/178247/pnp-to-verify-reports-on-foreign-terrorists-working-with-asg-in-mindanao
The Philippine National Police (PNP) said it has yet to verify reports of seven foreign terrorists suspected to be in southern Philippines working with local terrorist groups in the area.
“Of course, hindi naman natin pwedeng ma-confirm or deny. ‘Yung intelligence kaya nga tinawag na intelligence information — these are all needing of confirmation from the ground by our intelligence agency [and] for that matter kailangan nating i-verify,” PNP chief Gen. Oscar Albayalde told reporters in Camp Crame in Quezon City on Wednesday. 

This is contrary to Armed Forces of the Philippines’ report which stated that foreign terrorists are “grooming” future suicide bombers from local groups that have pledged allegiance to Islamic State.
Of course it is contrary and it indicates that the PNP and the AFP are not sharing information. Why not? They are both tasked with securing the nation and they should coordinate with each other. That would strengthen both agencies and prepare them for the realities on the ground. And the reality is that there are foreign terrorists in the Philippines.  Just this week it was finally confirmed that an Indonesian couple was behind the January cathedral bombing.

https://globalnation.inquirer.net/178273/indonesian-couple-behind-jolo-cathedral-blasts-afp-confirms
The AFP has shared notes and provided vital information with Indonesian counterparts. Those data which were based on our own inquiry and intelligence contributed to their deliberations that led to this confirmation,” he said in a statement.  
Rullie Rian Zeke and his wife Ulfah Handayani Saleh carried out the suicide bombing at Mt. Carmel Cathedral last January 27, Indonesian police said. The bombings left at least 20 killed and about a hundred wounded.  
Arevalo said this development stresses “the importance of cooperation and information sharing between and among countries in the region particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines.” 
“Not only on matters with relevance to the military but also those that impact on the police to bolster our security postures,” he added. 
If the AFP can share information with their foreign counterparts then why can't they share information with the PNP? Why are those two agencies not on the same page? 

Just a few days after Westmincom said there were only 7 foreign terrorist in Mindanao a stunning new piece of information emerged. Now there are reports, needing to be verified of course, that 100 foreign terrorists have made their way to Mindanao.

https://www.manilatimes.net/entry-of-foreign-terrorists-being-verified-dnd/590154/
Department of National Defense [DND] chief Delfin Lorenzana on Thursday said he received “substantial” information about the presence of 100 foreign terrorists in Mindanao, but their exact whereabouts or their nationalities have yet to be determined. 
A report from a source indicated that there were “new arrivals” of foreign jihadists in the country, particularly in Mindanao. 
Of the 100 foreign extremists, 45 are Indonesians, 10 Malaysians, 10 Arabs, seven Sri Lankans, three Thais, five Chinese Uyghurs and the others are from Bangladesh, Singapore, Turkey, Morocco and even from Europe, according to the source. 
Lorenzana said the details pertaining to the “new arrivals” would have to be confirmed first. 
“We still do not know their nationalities. The report says that they are in central Mindanao,” the Defense chief said.
If this information turn out to be correct it would not be surprising as analysts around the world have been warning for years that the Philippines is now the new land of jihad. But fret not. Any foreign terrorists in Mindanao will be contained to Jolo and wiped out within three to six months.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/702727/military-to-contain-foreign-terrorists-in-jolo-lorenzana/story/
Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana on Monday said the military was closing in on foreign terrorists in Sulu's Jolo town, as these radicals no longer had the ability to shift their activities to other parts of the country. 
"We hope to contain them in Jolo where they are now so that they cannot move to Basilan or Cotabato or in Central Mindanao or other places... Visayas and sa Manila. That's what we are guarding against," Lorenzana said on news channel CNN Philippines. 
Furthermore, Lorenzana was confident the military would wipe out these foreign terrorists in the next three to six months.
Fulfilling this goal would require lots of manpower and firepower. It would be a huge operation.
We have a huge operation going on in Jolo to ... finally stop this Abu Sayyaf,” Lorenzana told CNN Philippines’ The Source on Monday.
https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/7/29/Jolo-terrorists-wipe-out.html 
Three to six months to finally stop Abu Sayyaf?  That sounds very familiar.  Where have I heard this before?  Oh! I remember now!

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/04/09/1685469/abu-sayyaf-crushed-three-months-afp
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is confident it can wipe out the Abu Sayyaf within three months. 
AFP spokesman Brig. Gen. Restituto Padilla said the military is making headway in its campaign against the Basilan and Sulu-based bandit group. 
President Duterte has ordered the military to sustain the offensive against the Abu Sayyaf and to finish them off within the six-month deadline
“We are confident that we will meet our targets and deadline. We expect more support and cooperation form the communities where we operate as well as from the local government units,” Padilla said.
Back in April 2017 just a month before the Marawi siege the AFP said Abu Sayyaf would be wiped out in three months within a six month timeframe. It's always the same tired rhetoric and the same lack of results.

Last week I wrote about all the NPA surenderees and how the government is excited that it means the communist insurgency is on the wan. That in two years time it will all be over.  However the NPA is is still going strong. Recently they ambushed 4 PNP officers and then tortured them before executing them.

https://news.mb.com.ph/2019/07/23/pnp-identifies-11-rebels-who-executed-4-cops-in-negros-oriental/
The Philippine National Police (PNP) has identified 11 of the communist rebels who allegedly tortured and executed four police intelligence operatives in Ayungon town of Negros Oriental last week. 
PNP chief Gen. Oscar Albayalde said that the 11 communist rebels will be among those who would be slapped with criminal charges, along with the 30 others who participated in the killing of four intelligence operatives of the Regional Mobile Force Battalion. 
“The barangay captain is not also off the hook. Based on the investigation, he did not participate but it appears that he had knowledge of what was going to happen,” said Albayalde. 
Based on the initial report, the four cops were about to meet with an asset when they were waylaid in front of the house of a certain Oto Anadon in Sitio Yamot in Barangay Mabato. 
But during the probe that was backed by Crime Laboratory results, the cops appeared to have been seized by the rebels before they were tortured and later executed one after the other.
The NPA does not deny they killed these cops though they do deny they tortured them.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/236360-ndf-denies-npa-tortured-slain-negros-oriental-cops
The NDF, however, called the torture accusations “false claims made by Duterte.”  
They were armed adversaries of the NPA and died in a legitimate act of war. Duterte and the police are making up stories in a vain attempt to gain public sympathy,” the NDF said. “Unlike the AFP and PNP, the NPA strictly prohibits the use of torture. The NPA’s rules prohibit even lifting a finger against its captives or prisoners.”
A legitimate act of war. That should tell us all about their mindset. They are not ready to call it quits and the government should not be saying it will all be over in two years.  What they should be doing is concentrating on extinguishing the insurgency instead of setting ephemeral goals.

It's that time of the year again. You know, the time of the year to start thinking about extending martial law.
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1145316/1-year-mindanao-martial-law-extension-pushed
National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon, Jr. on Tuesday said he will recommend the extension of martial law in Mindanao for another year due to the sustained rebellion in the region. 
“I will.  I’ll go for one year,” Esperon told reporters on Tuesday after the post-Sona press briefing of the Duterte Cabinet. 
Esperon noted that terrorism in Mindanao continues to thrive, as shown by recent bombing attacks in the area. 
The former Armed Forces of the Philippines chief-of-staff, however, said he is open to lifting martial law in some areas, such as Davao City. 
“Why not (lift martial law) kung kaya na? You know why? Davao City is already a hardened area,” Esperon said.
One would think that it is too early to be deciding about another extension of martial law. After all there are so many parameters that need to be looked at in order to come to a decision.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/702226/another-martial-law-extension-afp-to-look-at-various-parameters/story/
The military will look at various parameters in deciding if it will recommend yet another extension of martial law in Mindanao, the spokesman of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said on Wednesday. 
"One of those variables is the prevailing security situation on the ground as it bears on the constitutional requirement for martial law," Marine Brigadier General Edgard Arevalo said. 
"Another consideration is the approval of important amendments to and introduction of new provisions in the existing Human Security Act that the DND (Department of National Defense) is espousing which will be key to our recommendation," he added. 
According to Arevalo, it will also take into account the assessments of local chief executives.

Blah, blah, blah we are going to look at the variables and blah, blah, blah the situation on the ground and....  

Whatever.  We all know they will probably recommend an extension and if they do they will surely get it.  Some men are already firm in their stance to extend martial law once again.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1146720/no-second-thought-for-bato-in-supporting-martial-law-extension-in-mindanao
“I’m in favor,” he said. “I’m from Mindanao and I know the situation there,” said Dela Rosa, former Philippine National Police (PNP) chief and architect of the now controversial anti-drug campaign “Oplan Tokhang (Knock and Plead)” which is being blamed for hundreds of summary killings. 
“I am from Mindanao,” Dela Rosa, one of Duterte’s closest allies, said. “No one can question me if I would be in favor of extension because I felt the positive effects of martial law as far as peace and order is concerned,” he said. 
He said he would agree if the military or PNP recommended to Duterte another extension of martial law because he said he believed that criminals and terrorists still roamed Mindanao. An extension of six months to a year was perfectly fine with him, Dela Rosa said.
Don't question this guy! Seriously.  Don't ask him about all the terrorists and criminals now in charge of the BARMM and who will also be allowed into the ranks of the PNP and AFP. He would probably spit out talking points about how the MILF are now all good guys and he BARMM will bring peace. Don't think such a set up will ever bring peace to Mindanao.  It won't.  Even sensible Muslims recognise this.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1147297/muslim-group-chair-wants-mindanao-martial-law-extended
The chairman of the Metro Manila Muslim Community for Justice and Peace said he would ask for an extension of martial law in Mindanao as it had brought peace in the region. 
“Our stand on Mindanao is very clear: Extend martial law in the whole of Mindanao,” Datu Basher Alonto, speaking in Filipino, said during the Balitaan sa Maynila forum on Sunday. “This is the medicine that I have seen in the two years that we have had martial law. What happened was so good.” 
According to Alonto, martial law resulted in fewer violent incidents in last May midterm elections in the region. 
“If only everyone in Mindanao would remain radical,” he said. “I can see that in Mindanao it’s as if there’s no law, no government. So we’re grateful that we have a President who thinks of what should be done.”
There is a law and government in Mindanao and it is "Do as thou wilt." That is the whole of the law in Mindanao. Groups doing all they cant to wage jihad and immanentize the eschaton by setting up a Muslim paradise, and Islamic State, in Mindanao. The communists want their workers paradise but they operate by the same principles of violence and fear.

The only thing that would be interesting about extending martial law is if it is not extended over the whole of Mindanao. As noted above some think certain places like Davao could have martial law lifted. Mayor Sara Duterte has asked for martial law to be lifted over economic concerns. But what if martial law was extended beyond Mindanao?  That idea has been floating around since May 2017.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1147193/13-killings-in-5-days-stoke-martial-law-talk-in-negros
Militant groups expect the violence to be made the excuse for a crackdown on political dissenters and government critics. 
“The killings will be used as a pretext for declaring martial law,” said Michael dela Concepcion, secretary general of  Bagong Alyansang Makabayan-Negros. 
In the capital city of Dumaguete, Negros Oriental Gov. Roel Degamo said he was open to placing specific areas, like Guihulngan City, not the whole province, under martial law if warranted and if it could stop the killings. 
Asked if he was amenable to placing the province under martial law, Degamo said: “Not all (of the province). If that will be the solution to the problem and that will be only in Guihulngan, that is OK.” 
Central Visayas PNP director Police Brig. Gen. Debold Sinas, however, has played down the killings. 
“These are just few isolated cases … I don’t think so this is alarming. Negros Oriental is still in normal situation,”  Sinas said. 
The PNP said it was taking measures to prevent a spillover of violence from Negros Oriental to Negros Occidental.
So will they or won't they?  I am certain they will extend martial law once more but as to extending it beyond Mindanao...I think not.  I also do not think Davao will be exempt from martial law either. Better to just have the whole island of Mindanao under lock and key. But we will all know come December.

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