Martial Law: Threatening War

Well, he did it again. Duterte terminated peace talks with the communists for the...how many times is that now?

https://pia.gov.ph/news/articles/1020119

“I am officially announcing the permanent termination of our talks between the Government Panel and the Communist Party of the Philippines,” President Duterte said. 

“I’d like to announce that I am no longer entertaining any interventions or maybe persuasions in this democratic state of the Republic of the Philippines,” he added. 

The Chief Executive also said that the CPP could talk to the next president, indicating that there would be no more discussions under his administration.

On again, off again do peace talks really matter when the AFP and the NPA continue to engage in combat?

https://thedailyguardian.net/negros/army-npa-clash-in-escalante/

A gun battle erupted between members of the Army’s 79th Infantry Battalion (79IB) and more or less 10 New People’s Army (NPA) fighters in the mountainous area of Barangay Mabini in Escalante City, Negros Occidental Thursday night.

More or less then 10 NPA fighters? When was the last time the AFP and the NPA went head to head with large battalions firing off machine guns at each other in the jungle or the mountains? It's always a few NPA ambushing the AFP or PNP and then running off into the night or the AFP engaging a few NPA after hearing about their presence in a remote locality. It is never anything significant. It's a waste of time really. Perhaps that is one reason why the AFP agrees with Duterte's move to end the peace talks...again.

https://www.untvweb.com/news/afp-on-dutertes-move-to-scrap-talks-with-reds-its-the-right-thing/

“Dapat lang. 31 years of deceptive ploys using peace talks, across five administrations, only resulted to more terrorist NPAs being released, an opportunity for the CTG (communist terrorist groups) to recruit and recover lost areas of influence, publicity for Joma [Sison] in the international arena as a ‘dove,’” AFP deputy chief of staff for civil-military operations Brig. Gen. Antonio Parlade, Jr. said in a message sent to media on Friday. 

Parlade added that the decades-long peace process “wasted government funds spent for negotiations and junkets, opportunity losses for investments and development because of prolonged and intermittent fighting.” 

“They had their best chance when peace was offered again to them by PRRD [President Rodrigo R. Duterte], offering Cabinet posts in good faith for them to help in good governance but they blew it by attacking projects, killing society forces, and even innocent civilians,” he said. 

President Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday permanently ended the peace negotiations and told the communist rebels to just talk to the next administration. 

Malacañang followed this up with an announcement that a new panel will be created to pursue localized peace talks with communist members on the ground in line with the government’s new whole-of-nation approach to end the 50-year armed struggle. 

It seems the peace talks aren't 100% over because Duterte will now begin pursuing localised peace talks which according to the AFP have been very successful.

Meanwhile, AFP spokesman, Brig. Gen. Edgard Arevalo, slammed Sison for calling President Duterte “stupid” for pursuing localized peace talks with the NPA instead of re-engaging with the Utrecht. 

“Mr. Sison has the temerity to call President Duterte ‘stupid’ for thinking that government will be successful in attaining peace by engaging NPA commanders and fighters on the ground instead of the CPP-NPA’s national leadership,” Arevalo said in a statement. 

“Mr. Sison speaks like a smart aleck to conceal his panic. He is of course aware that localized peace engagement has been immensely successful,” he added. 

He said since January 2018, localized peace talks have resulted in the surrender of more than 11,000 NPA regulars and supporters who have realized the deception made on them by the CPP-NPA-National Democratic Front (NDF) leadership that are mostly based in Utrecht, Netherlands. 

“They have realized that they have been deceived and have descended from their mountain hideouts to rejoin their families, avail of government benefits, and live normal lives,” Arevalo said.

http://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1065401

https://www.untvweb.com/news/govt-to-create-new-panel-for-localized-peace-talks/

President Rodrigo Duterte has terminated the appointments of the members of the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) negotiating panel. 

But the decision, according to Presidential Peace Adviser Carlito Galvez Jr. will pave the way for the creation of a holistic panel that will supervise localized peace negotiations. 

In response to the issue, NDFP Founding Chairman and Chief Political Consultant Joma Sison in a statement on Thursday (March 21) accused President Duterte of having no interest in the peace negotiations because “he has always schemed to use the armed conflict as an excuse for carrying out martial law nationwide” and “in order to realize and impose fascist dictatorship on the Filipino people.” 

Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo in a press briefing said Sison “read it wrongly.” 

“That’s why there will be creation of panels, it’s localized. That would be more favorable to them,” Panelo concluded. 

The new panel, Panelo said, will commission representatives from different sectoral groups, local government units, and the military.

Just like with the Muslims any talk about "peace" with the communists must be done with the government and the communists being on the same page about what peace means. For the government peace seems to always mean cessation of hostilities. For the Muslisms it means implementing policies beneficial to the Bangsamoro people which will ultimately lead to independence. For the communists it means the signing and implementation of the CASER, Comprehensive Agreement on Social and Economic Reform.

“CASER is the trigger mechanism that would lead to the discussion of constitutional reforms and end of hostilities,” said Government peace panel member and former Agrarian Reform Secretary Hernani Braganza after a two-day consultation-workshop on the government’s proposed social economic reforms and ceasefire here in the city. This is a first on the series of regional consultations on the said drafts to be conducted nationwide.

https://peace.gov.ph/tag/comprehensive-agreement-on-social-economic-reforms/

You can read the CASER here and you can read what I have previously written about it here. 

This document is 173 pages of broad and general calls for reform in industry, culture, agriculture, and other areas of the government and Philippine life. The one thing lacking is there are no methods of implementing these reforms. There is nothing exact. It's as vague as the term "social and economic reform." After listing the various reforms sought for a particular area there is a schedule of implementation like the following:

Section 1. The Parties shall create a mechanism to ensure that the Agreement on Financial, Monetary and Fiscal Policies (FMF) is respected and effectively implemented. 

Section 4. The Parties shall, within three (3) months from signing this Agreement, agree on the composition, functions, mechanics and logistics of the JMC-FMF and on the implementation schedule and work plan containing the dates and time frame for undertaking their respective commitments under the Agreement on FMF.

These terms are too vague and the timeframe for designing a method of implementation, 3 months for each section, is too short. The danger in signing such an over broad agreement is that the CPP will undoubtedly accuse the government of not keeping its word when all these reforms are not implemented due to disagreement on the methods of implementation. These are not reforms that can happen over night or in 3 months. The CPP is not taking into account the slow nature of government especially the corrupt Philippine government.

Signing the CASER and implementing all the reforms therein is what the communists consider to be peace. The government could never gain anything by subscribing to such terms. It would be foolish to ever sign that document. The genius of localised peace talks is that they bypass having to sign the CASER and deal with NDFP and CPP leaders and involve only the government and the regional band of NPA fighters. The bad thing about localised talks however is that the government is basically bribing those men to lay down their arms. With the E-Clip program every person who surrenders is given a house and money and training to get a job. And who pays for that but the taxpayer? No NPA fighter should get free housing and money while many regular Pinoys are living in dire squalor and poverty.

MNLF founder and Chairman Nur Misuari has returned form his trip abroad and now he is threatening to go to war if federalism does not push through.

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2019/3/20/Rodrigo-Duterte-Nur-Misuari-war-federalism.html

President Rodrigo Duterte said Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) founding chairman Nur Misuari threatened to go to war during their meeting in Malacañang Tuesday evening. 

"Kagabi nag-usap kami sa harap ni Gen. (Carlito) Galvez, sa OPAPP (Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process)," Duterte said in a speech at the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino - Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) campaign rally in Marikina. "Sabi ko, 'Let us talk sa iyo.'" Sabi niya, "O sige. Pero ito ang gusto ko, federalism." 

[Translation: Yesterday we talked in front of General Galvez, in the OPAPP. I told him, "Let's us talk about you." He said, "Okay, but this what I want, federalism."] 

Misuari met with Duterte, Galvez, and National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon. In the meeting, Duterte said Misuari claims the Moro community wants federalism, as supposedly promised by then President Corazon Aquino. 

"Sabi ni Misuari kagabi [Misuari said last night], 'If you do not give it (federalism) to me, let me be very honest. I will go to war," Duterte revealed.

It's all so ridiculous. Cory Aquino promised federalism to the MNLF? Really? No. No agreement made with the MNLF promises federalism.

Former MNLF chairman Muslimin Sema said there was no reason to threaten war” as he cited the 1996 Final Peace Agreement (FPA) signed by the MNLF and the Philippine government. 

“While federalism may be a solution to the Bangsamoro issue, the 1996 FPA does not provide for it but merely for meaningful autonomy and the integration of our fighters to the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines),” Sema said in a statement. 

“There is no valid reason to make threats of war, veiled or otherwise. War is not a child’s play and already considered uncivilized,” Sema stressed.

https://www.manilatimes.net/misuari-incapable-of-waging-war/530496/

What she gave them was the ARMM and the MNLF messed that up big time because it wasn't the independence they actually wanted. How is it that before Misuari left the Philippines Duterte was talking about a gentleman's agreement with Misuari and now he is talking about war?

https://www.untvweb.com/news/palace-duterte-wants-a-gentlemens-agreement-not-new-peace-deal-with-mnlf/

Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea on Friday (March 1) clarified that President Rodrigo Duterte does not intend to create a new peace agreement with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). 

Instead, Medialdea said the Chief Executive wants an agreement in form of a formal writing between him and MNLF Chairman Nur Misuari for the sake of achieving peace in the Mindanao region.

Where did he go? What did he do? Who did he talk to? He went to the UAE and Morocco to attend two meetings of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.

On Tuesday night, Misuari left for UAE to attend the 46th session of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation’s (OIC) Council of Foreign Ministers on March 1 and 2. 

He will stay in UAE until March 11 before proceeding to Morocco to attend the 14th session of the Parliamentary Union of OIC member states in Rabat, Morocco, on March 13 and 14.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1090428/president-eyes-misuari-as-uae-emissary-lorenzana

It should be remembered from last week's martial law update that the MNLF is the only Filipino Islamic group recognised by the OIC and they have been observer members since 1977. This means that they do not recognise the MILF which is now in control of the BARMM. At the UAE meeting a declaration was issued with the following pertinent points:

30.

Renew the collective position of the Member States against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, express our concern regarding the danger of terrorist groups which threaten the stability, security and territorial integrity of Member States, emphasise the importance of setting the legal legislative measures aiming at the promotion of counter extremism, including combating discrimination and hatred, criminalising actions related to disdaining religions and sanctities, combating all forms of discrimination, rejecting hate speech, criminalising discrimination between individuals and groups based on religion, belief, rite, faith, sect, race, color or ethnic origin, and combating the exploitation of religion for the takfirism of individuals and groups by imposing repressive sanctions on associations and events aiming at the disdain of religions, discrimination or incitement of hate speech. 

31.

Affirm the conviction that extremism and terrorism are closely interlinked and that it is essential to deal with environments that foster extremism through effective approaches to address all root causes leading to extremism and what follows in terms of involvement with terrorism.

https://gulfnews.com/uae/government/abu-dhabi-declaration-46th-session-of-council-of-foreign-minister-of-the-organisation-of-islamic-cooperation-1.1551555952948

The OIC's rejection of terrorism flies in the face of Misuari's declaration of war if no federalism. What happened in Morocco? They too penned a declaration which practically mirrors the declaration made in Abu Dhabi. There is also a group photo where Misuari can be seen and identified by his distinctive headgear and beard.

5. We renew our rejection of extremist thought and condemnation of terrorism which targets several Islamic and non-Islamic countries. We call for a head-on confrontation of its roots and causes and intensified cooperation among the members of the International Community to achieve that aim. In this respect, we demand taking action to counter extremist and bigoted discourses, whatever their sources and origin, rejecting the establishment of any links between terrorism and Islam and Muslims, and the exploitation of terror claims in campaigns against Islam and Islamic Civilization. 

6. We call for the resolution of conflicts in certain regions of the Islamic World, by dints of dialogue, negotiation, and peaceful means. We emphasize the necessity of sparing civilians the consequences of these conflicts, providing them with the requisite protection, and guaranteeing their moral and material rights to safety, security, social services, and all the necessaries of dignified life. We reaffirm our rejection of civilian hostage-taking, arrest, detention, and their use as a means to exercise pressure in conflicts.

http://www.chambredesrepresentants.ma/en/news/rabat-declaration-14th-session-puic-conference

This declaration also does not sound in concert with Misuari's declaration of war.

There are two things that could be happening here. One is that Misuari is just acting out. This is what Senate hopeful Samira Gutoc thinks.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1098498/senate-bet-says-misuari-threat-to-wage-war-a-political-strategy

Moro National Liberation Front chair Nur Misuari’s alleged threat to wage war if federalism is rejected may be a “political strategy” to express support to President Rodrigo Duterte, opposition senatorial bet Samira Gutoc argued Thursday. 

Gutoc said that while the threats need to stop, Misuari might not mean what he said. 

“Ang malaking pang-kontra natin sa ganitong posturing ay panawagan galing sa isang batang Marawi kagaya ko na nakaranas ng gyera, na wakasan na, tuldukan na ‘yung karahasan at pagbabantang ganito,”  the former ARMM assemblywoman said. “I think it’s only a matter of language.” 

(The biggest deterrent against this posturing is an appeal from a native of Marawi like who had experienced war. We need to put a stop to threats of violence like this. I think it is on). 

“I know that the Chairman does not mean a physical war. Sometimes, he only expresses his feelings and sentiments through mga ganitong pagsasalita (words like these). It might also be just a political strategy para maipakita ang suporta kay Pangulong Duterte (to show support to President Duterte).”

It's funny how she apologises for Misuari by saying he does not mean what he really says when Misuari has gone to war many times over independence. In fact the last time was the 2013 Zamboanga siege. But why would he threaten war over federalism? DND Secretary Lorenzana also thinks Misuari is posturing to get attention.

Lorenzana dismissed Misuari’s threat as mere “sound bites in an attempt to make himself be noticed.” 

“But he is missing a great chance to be really relevant. He should accept the BARMM, work within it and lend his leadership, stature and expertise to make it succeed,” the Defense chief said. 

“My guess [on his threat]? He’s bluffing,” he added.

https://www.manilatimes.net/misuari-incapable-of-waging-war/530496/

The other thing is that could be happening is maybe Misuari was told by someone to threaten war. Perhaps one should consider the OIC as the Islamic version of the Round Table, CFR, Trilateral Commission, and other groups working towards international hegemony but an Islamic hegemony rather than an Anglo-American hegemony. Perhaps Misuari was given instructions from his handler or financier to threaten Duterte upon his return. Just who did he meet in Morocco and the UAE? The Sandiganbayan should never have let him leave the country or post bail. The country has enough on its hands without having to listen to threats of war from Misuari.

http://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1065350

Military troops pursuing the Islamic State-linked Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao have recovered more anti-personnel mines, mortars, rifles, and communication devices from the extremist group. 

On Thursday, elements of Army’s 37th Infantry Battalion (IB) said they found an abandoned safe house in Barangay Penditin, Shariff Saydona Mustapha town with three anti-personnel mines at about 7 a.m. 

The improvised bombs were kept in the ceiling of the house made of wood and bamboos. A few hours after, troopers belonging to the 34IB clashed with about 20 BIFF members in the same village that lasted for 30 minutes. 

The militants splintered into smaller groups and fled after the firefight. In an ensuing clearing operation, 34IB troopers found one Carbine rifle, two anti-personnel mines, and personal belongings of BIFF members.

It seems terrorists always get away whenever the AFP conducts a raid. Maybe next time.