Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Insurgency: Amnesty for Abu Sayyaf Leader

This week a top commander of Abu Sayyaf was arrested by the PNP.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1112222
The Davao City Police Office (DCPO) arrested a top leader of the terrorist Abu Sayyaf Group here on Thursday evening. 
Col. Kirby Kraft, DCPO director, said they served the warrant of arrest to Abduljihad "Edang" Susukan at the residence of Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) chairman Nur Misuari in Yñigue Subdivision in Barangay Ma-a.
He said police officers initiated the negotiation after finding out that Susukan was brought to the city to seek medical attention. 
Kraft told Philippine News Agency Friday that upon receiving an intelligence report that Susukan was in the city, they immediately secured his warrant of arrest from Sulu and Camp Crame. 
Susukan has standing arrest warrants for 23 counts of murder, 10 counts of kidnapping and serious illegal detention, and six counts of frustrated murder. 
“He is in our custody right now and we are processing his transfer. Anytime today he will be transferred to Manila,” Kraft said. 
In a statement, Philippine National Police (PNP) chief, Gen. Archie Gamboa has also confirmed the arrest of Susukan being facilitated by DCPO. 
He also thanked Misuari for facilitating the negotiation. 
"His giving himself up to Mr. Misuari is not the surrender contemplated under the law and does not make him immune from arrest," he added. 
Susukan, who is wanted for numerous crimes and atrocities, surrendered to Misuari in Jolo, Sulu last April.
There are a lot of troubling details about this story. In April Abduljihad Susukan surrendered to MNLF leader and Duterte friend Misuari instead of the government. He was then under the protection of the MNLF and allowed to move freely. According to the Malaysian Star:

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/08/13/militant-spotted-moving-freely
According to regional intelligence sources, Misuari brought Idang to Davao to have him fitted with a prosthetic replacement for his left arm, which he lost during a gun battle with the Philippine armed forces in Jolo Island early last year. 
The sources also said Misuari is expected to meet with Duterte in the next few days. 
Misuari, whose MNLF base is in Jolo Island, is in Davao days after armed clashes between his faction and the rival MNLF group of Yusof Jikiri, who heads the MNLF council of 15. Misuari has pledged to Duterte to bring peace to the southern Muslim Mindanao region and crush the Abu Sayyaf and other Islamic State-related groups in the southern Philippines. 
Misuari and Jikiri are part of the MNLF peace coordinating committee set up by Duterte. 
But intelligence sources said the rivalry between the one-time comrades fighting for an independent Muslim Mindanao state in the 1970s and 80s is growing. 
Jikiri, who is working closely with the Philippine security forces, has formed the MNLF-Anti-Kidnapping and Terrorism Task Force (MNLF-AKTTF) to act against the Abu Sayyaf .However, tensions have been growing between the Misuari and Jikiri groups. 
Misuari has facilitated the surrender of notorious Abu Sayyaf members. 
In contrast, Jikiri’s MNLF-AKTFF has joined forces with the Philippine military and police to hunt down Abu Sayyaf top leaders, including Radullan Sahiron @ one-armed commander and Hajan Sawadjaan. 
According to intelligence sources, Misuari’s group was allowing Abu Sayyaf gunmen to seek shelter or protection in the MNLF camp in Jolo under the guise of surrender.
According to unnamed intelligence sources the MNLF is in the midst of a rivalry between Misuari and Jikiri. Misuari is allowing ASG members to surrender to him while Jikari is working with the AFP and PNP to hunt ASG leaders. Misuari took Susukan to Davao to get a prosthetic arm.  But he later contradicted this story.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/751321/lorenzana-misuari-claiming-he-brought-asg-leader-susukan-to-surrender-him-to-authorities/story/
Security forces were not aware that Abu Sayyaf Group leader Anduljihad "Edang" Susukan arrived in Davao City to have a medical check-up, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said on Friday. 
"Nobody knew that Susukan arrived in Davao with (Moro National Liberation Front founder Nur) Misuari last Sunday until his picture appeared in the media the other day," Lorenzana said in a message to GMA News Online. 
He (Susukan) went with Misuari to Davao to have a prosthetics done on his severed hand," he added. 
The Defense chief said, based on information he obtained, Misuari is claiming that he brought the Abu Sayyaf leader to yield him to the authorities. 
“Misuari claims that he brought Susukan to surrender him to the authorities,” Lorenzana said. 
Asked if the military was not able to detect Susukan's movement from Sulu to Davao City, Lorenzana said: "He escaped because first, we trust Misuari. At any rate, it was good and he was caught." 
According to Lorenzana, authorities will still investigate if Misuari could be charged for his action. 
"We will investigate. But the mere fact that he brought Susukan to Davao away from his bailiwick in Sulu and alone could mean only one thing," Lorenzana said. 
Lorenzana said it is also possible that Misuari wants to bring Susukan to President Rodrigo Duterte. 
"Maybe Misuari really intended to turn him over. We suspect that he wanted to bring Susukan to the President and waiting for a chance," he said. "But we learned about it, we had him arrested, and Misuari readily and peacefully gave him up."
How is it that the AFP and PNP knew nothing about this man's movements until they saw his photo in a Malaysian newspaper? If that really is the case then the Malaysian Star's sources can't be Philippine intelligence. So who are they?

Lorenzana's answer as to why they did not know is a non-answer. If Misuari really wanted to bring Susukan to Duterte then the government should drop all trust they have for him. Duterte should have never lobbied for the arrest warrant against him to be suspended. How would Misuari have gotten Susukan past the Presidential Security Guard? 

It would not be out of character for Misuari to clandestinely present a top leader of the ASG before Duterte as he has proposed amnesty for them.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/27/16/duterte-misuari-wants-amnesty-for-abu-sayyaf
President Rodrigo Duterte revealed Tuesday that Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) founder Nur Misuari wants to include the Abu Sayyaf Group in peace talks with the government. 
Duterte added that Misuari also wants amnesty for members of the terrorist group. 
(I've been waiting for (Nur) Misuari but he seems equivocal. He is proposing to include the Abu Sayyaf Group in the peace talks, and eventually, make them eligible for general amnesty.) 
Duterte said he rejected the proposal outright. He said he is willing to drop the talks with Misuari altogether if he insists on bringing in the Abu Sayyaf. 
(I said, if that is the case, it's better if we drop the talks. I will not, for the life of me, as a matter of principle. Forget about it.) 
He had some harsh words for the terrorist group. 
"Why should I talk to animals? What's the point? Ni walang awa. (They show no mercy.)" 
Duterte said his administration will not deal amicably with the terrorist group. 
(To my Moro brethren, my proposal is federalism. But if you come to me with a mixed crowd, which is with the Abu Sayyaf, you better get lost. You wait for another president.)
Will Duterte now tell Misuari, "You better get lost?" 

Despite backing the terrorist group MILF controlling the BARMM the AFP says the prospect of a leader of Abu Sayyaf being granted amnesty is worrisome. 


https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1321898/amnesty-eyed-for-abu-sayyaf-leader-worries-military-brass
Armed Forces chief Lt. Gen. Gilbert Gapay on Friday lauded the arrest of notorious Abu Sayyaf leader Anduljihad Susukan as “a major blow” on the leadership of Sulu-based terror group, but the incident also bared serious differences of opinion on the country’s security policies. 
The bone of contention, military sources said, was the presidential amnesty that allegedly underpinned a surrender deal brokered by Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) founding chair Nur Misuari, President Rodrigo Duterte’s special economic envoy to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). 
Gapay claimed he was not made aware of Susukan’s trip to Davao and so did Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, who told GMA News Online: “Nobody knew that Susukan arrived in Davao… until his picture appeared in the media the other day.” 
Philippine National Police chief Archie Gamboa also denied knowledge of Susukan’s arrival and said, in a statement, that local police “initiated the negotiation after finding out that Susukan was brought to Davao City to seek medical attention.” 
But a day after three of the country’s top security officials claimed to have been kept out of the loop, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio, the President’s daughter, revealed that security officials knew all along about Susukan’s journey to Davao City. 
“We were aware, including law enforcement groups, that he is coming to Davao City. In fact, we were informed by those from his point of origin,” the mayor told reporters on Friday afternoon. 
Confronted with the conflicting statements and eyewitness accounts, Army chief Lt. Gen. Cirilito Sobejana, who used to head the Western Mindanao Command which includes Sulu, admitted that the Aug. 9 flight of Misuari and Susukan from Sulu to Davao City was known to Sulu and Davao authorities. 
The Jolo Municipal Police Station, in a statement, said that a private Bombardier jet with tail number RP-C7588—the same number of a plane that the President rode to Singapore in 2018 for a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—arrived in Jolo at around 8:30 in the morning of Sunday. 
Witnesses said Misuari and Susukan then arrived at Jolo Airport in a convoy of heavily armed escorts wearing MNLF uniforms. Misuari even chatted with military and police officials at the airport’s departure area before enplaning with eight others, including Susukan. 
Hours later, the Bombardier jet landed at the old Davao International Airport. The airport’s old terminal shares the same space with the Philippine Air Force, including the Presidential Airlift Wing. 
When asked how Misuari could travel to Davao with the fugitive Susukan, Lorenzana said: “Nakalusot dahil [Slipped through because] first, we trust Misuari. At any rate, mabuti na rin at nahuli siya.” 
Sobejana agreed that the military considered Misuari a partner in the peace effort and that officials had already heard of rumors that Susukan surrendered to the MNLF leader in April but they did not receive any word from Misuari.
Everything about this story is worrisome. From the AFP and DND Secretary Lorenzana brazenly lying to the public disavowing any knowledge of Susukan's arrival in Davao to the fact that he flew with Misurai to Davao on a presidential jet to the fact that the AFP were not informed of his surrender to Misuari in April yet still trust the man. It sounds like President Duterte knew about Suskan's arrival. Perhaps he facilitated it by providing his own jet? Would there have been a meeting between the two? This is not just incompetence. It is treachery. I am going go out on a limb and surmise that the killing of AFP intel agents by PNP officers in Jolo on June 29th is connected to all this mess.

The latest quarterly report of Operation Pacific Eagle has been released. Let's take a look.


This quarter, ISIS–East Asia (ISIS-EA) conducted violent terrorist activity in the Philippines as the coronavirus disease–2019 (COVID-19) pandemic strained the resources of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), contributed to social and economic tension across the country, and placed constraints on the capacity of U.S. military advisors to support their Philippine partners. As has been the case since the beginning of OPE-P, ISIS-EA remained organizationally fractured, largely isolated from the support of international terrorist networks, unable to expand its presence, but still capable of conducting sporadic deadly attacks. 
On April 17, approximately 40 ISIS-EA and Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) militants ambushed AFP soldiers near Patikul on the island of Jolo. The militants killed 12 AFP soldiers and wounded 13 in what the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) described as the deadliest incident involving ASG or ISIS-EA since the January 2019 suicide bombing of a cathedral in Jolo, which left 23 people dead and more than 100 wounded.37 According to media reports, the ambushed AFP unit was in pursuit of Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan, an ISIS-EA leader and organizer of the 2019 cathedral bombing. An AFP spokesperson told reporters that while the military mourned the losses of April 17, it would continue e ort to capture or kill Sawadjaan. 
The DIA attributed the high number of AFP casualties in this incident to the fact that a large number of ISIS-EA and ASG fighters had “assumed advantageous positions” before launching the attack. A statement from the commander of the AFP’s Western Mindanao Command, Lieutenant General Cirilito Sobejana, confirmed that the enemy controlled the higher ground during the clash. The DIA reported that of the 12 AFP soldiers who were killed, 3 were attacked with bladed weapons, probably machetes, and ISIS-EA fighters attempted to behead a fourth. The attackers seized AFP weapons and equipment during the engagement, including rifles, a grenade launcher, a light machine gun, and a handheld radio unit, according to the DIA. ISIS-EA later released footage on social media purportedly from the attack. However, the U.S. Embassy in Manila stated that it con rmed the footage released by ISIS-EA was older and not recorded in 2020.
Page 7
ISIS-EA, which consists mostly of Abu Sayyaf, remains fractured in the Philippines and in the region as a whole but can still pull off deadly attacks. One such attack occurred in April when AFP troops were ambushed. This report does not make any connections but if the AFP was ambushed that probably means the ASG knew they were coming. Who would have told them? Is this incident related to the PNP's murder of AFP intel officers in June? There is no mention of that incident in this report.
On June 26, Philippine security officials killed four suspected ISIS-EA militants in Parañaque, a city in Metro Manila (a densely populated urban area made up of several cities, including the capital). One officer was wounded when police raided a house where the suspects were staying. According to media sources, police and intelligence reporting connected the four suspects to a sleeper cell sent by Hatib Sawadjaan to Metro Manila.  
A media report identified one of the suspects as a finance and logistics facilitator who allegedly provided support for the 2019 Jolo cathedral bombing with funds received from an Indonesian terrorist  financier. 
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) previously reported that the group “remains connected to its historic operating areas of the southern Philippines, and it has not demonstrated a capability to operate elsewhere in the country.” USINDOPACOM added that it did not believe the activity in Metro Manila represented a shift in ISIS-EA tactics or strategy, saying that while ISIS-EA has supporters across the country, the group remains focused on operations in the south. 
Page 10-11
A sleeper cell sent to Manila was incapacitated by the Philippine security officials in June. USINDOPACOM does not believe that this sleeper cell represents a change in tactics as most of ISIS-EA's operations remain in the south. However the presence of this cell means they can penetrate to the north. Perhaps there are more cells.
Previous Lead IG reports have noted that a key goal of the MILF’s peace agreement with the Philippine government and the establishment of the BARMM is the phased decommissioning and disarming of the MILF’s 40,000 fighters. However, progress toward achieving this goal has been slow. 
The U.S. Embassy in Manila stated that the decommissioning process was facing problems even before COVID-19 and that it essentially had stalled since the pandemic began. The third phase of decommissioning, which requires former combatants to travel to Camp Abubakar in Maguindanao, was scheduled to begin on March 11 but it was suspended due to the pandemic and quarantine measures. Some MILF members who took part in the second phase were stranded at Camp Abubakar and unable to get back to their home provinces, according to the embassy. 
Since the decommissioning began, former militants have surrendered 2,100 weapons, which the government has destroyed, according to the Independent Decommissioning Body. However, embassy contacts reported that the destroyed weapons were mostly older and lower grade. The embassy reported that former combatants received cash grants of approximately $2,000 for taking part in the program. The embassy predicted that this process, which was already facing delays before the pandemic, would likely fail to meet the deadlines established in the peace agreement between the Philippine government and the MILF.
Page 11-12
The decommissioning of MILF fighters has stalled since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Some MILF fighters were left stranded at Camp Abubakar and were unable to return home once the lockdowns began. Scheduled deadlines will probably not be met in the decommission timetable.
This quarter, ISIS-EA claimed seven attacks in the Philippines through official ISIS-Core media channels, according to the DIA. Six of the attacks were individually claimed through ISIS-Core’s Amaq Media and one claim appeared in the weekly ISIS magazine, al-Naba. ISIS-Core media also claimed a June 1 attack on a police station in Indonesia. However, the claim did not positively link the attacker to ISIS-EA. The DIA stated that ISIS-Core provided multimedia support to ISIS-EA this quarter, which included publishing photos of ISIS-EA members celebrating Ramadan. 
The DIA stated that while the overall trend is towards better media support from ISIS-Core, the support provided this quarter does not represent a significant increase over previous quarters, either in terms of quantity or quality. USINDOPACOM added that while there were more ISIS-EA media claims this quarter, ISIS-EA likely exaggerates its claims. USINDOPACOM stated that it disputes the facts of ISIS-EA media claims.
Page 14
ISIS-EA is getting regular media attention from ISIS-Core, that's ISIS in the Middle East. They even get one mention in the weekly ISIS magazine, al-Naba. However USINDOPACOM says their claims are likely exaggerated.
The DIA assessed that ISIS-EA’s posture in the Philippines remained unchanged from previous quarters, with an estimated 300 to 500 members divided among several factions, including the ASG, the Esmael faction of the BIFF, the Maute Group, and Ansar Khalifah Philippines. According to the DIA, the ASG factions operate primarily on the islands of Basilan and Jolo, while the BIFF is most active in the provinces of Maguindanao and South Cotabato on Mindanao. The Maute Group retains a marginal presence in Lanao del Sur province, of which Marawi is the capital, according to the DIA. The DIA reported that the number of confrontations between ISIS-EA and the AFP was highest on Jolo this quarter. ISIS-EA has maintained a strong foothold in the Sulu archipelago and central Mindanao, but according to the DIA, the local population does not actively support ISIS, which makes it necessary for these  fighters to operate out of transient jungle encampments. 
According to the DIA, ISIS-Core stated its intent to spread its ideology to other Southeast Asian countries. While ISIS affiliates are now active in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia, ISIS has not been successful in expanding ISIS-EA’s presence into a functional trans-Southeast Asian movement, despite vulnerable Muslim populations in Burma and Bangladesh. The DIA reported that while ISIS affiliates have conducted attacks in Indonesia, there was no evidence of a concerted coordination effort between ISIS-EA’s Indonesian and Philippine branches. The DIA added that Indonesian and Malaysian counterterrorism operations were largely successful in interrupting ISIS-EA’s plans and disrupting the  flow of foreign fighters into the Philippines. 
Page 15
There are about 300-500 members of ISIS-EA spread over a several groups. USINDOPACOM says they do not have support from the local population and are forced to operate out of jungle camps. ISIS has also been unable to expand ISIS-EA's presence to a functional Southeast Asian movement.
This quarter, U.S. intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) support to the AFP was negatively impacted by COVID-19 personnel restrictions, a transition between ISR contracts, and seasonal weather. Despite these factors, the AFP continued to leverage ISR provided by the U.S. in their operations, according to SOCPAC. The AFP also leveraged their own manned ISR and small unmanned aerial system (UAS) platforms to augment U.S. support to counterterrorism operations. SOCPAC reported that its advisors continued to provide advice on ISR and best practices for small UAS deployment, as the AFP plans to increase its own ISR capacity in the near future. 
SOCPAC reported that U.S. special operations personnel supporting OPE-P continued to conduct advise and assist efforts remotely. They were challenged in their ability to support the AFP’s activities fully due COVID-19 restrictions, and because the AFP shifted some resources to support virus quarantine efforts. U.S. advisors continued to share information with the AFP to develop target intelligence packages and provided ISR-related information in support of AFP operations against ISIS-EA. Sulu province, which includes the island of Jolo, remained the most active region for AFP operations this quarter, according to SOCPAC. 
SOCPAC assessed that the most severe restrictions on the movement of U.S. advisors and their coordination with the AFP will likely be relaxed next quarter, although social distancing requirements and reduced manpower may continue to impact operations. Additionally, SOCPAC assessed that in the coming quarter ISIS-EA will likely increase its attacks, regroup, recruit, and advance its messaging because of the Philippine government’s COVID-19 restrictions and the redirection of AFP assets away from counterterrorism efforts and toward pandemic response. As larger social gatherings slowly return, opportunities for terrorist attacks may increase, according to SOCPAC. 
Page 16
U.S. intel assistance to the AFP was hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic because of resources were shifted to support quarantine efforts. This quarter the AFP were able to use their own ISR platforms to augment US assistance. The US continues to offer advice as the AFP plans to expand their own ISR capacity in the future. 

ISIS-EA may increase attacks because the AFP has redirected much of its efforts to fight the pandemic. With the capture of Susukan the AFP is preparing for retaliation from ASG.

 https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/08/14/20/military-says-ready-for-abu-sayyaf-retaliation-after-leaders-arrest
The military said Friday it is ready to repel any retaliatory attack by the Abu Sayyaf Group after the arrest of its leader Anduljihad "Idang" Susukan. 
Susukan, who is facing at least 30 arrest warrants for murder and various crimes, went to Davao City this week for medical treatment. Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) leader Nur Misuari facilitated the terror leader’s surrender to authorities on Thursday. 
“Inaasahan nating itong mga tauhan niya ay made-demoralize sapagkat itong kanilang leader ay nahuli na nga natin,” military spokesman Maj. Gen. Edgard Arevalo told ABS-CBN’s TeleRadyo. 
(We expect that his men will be demoralized because we have arrested their leader.) 
“At the same time, inaasahan din natin na maaari sila ay gaganti, subalit handa tayo, ang ating Sandatahang Lakas ng Pilipinas na i-repel kung ano mang balak nilang gawin,” he said. 
(We also expect that the could retaliate, but we are ready, the Armed Forces of the Philippines, to repel whatever they plan to do.)
Given ASG's jihadist doctrine they will likely see Susukan as a martyr and be encouraged to fight harder. Besides he is not top dog. Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan is the alleged de-facto leader and he is still out there.

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