This week the President has vowed to end the communist insurgency telling the AFP that now is the time and that those who do not surrender will face a "reformed and reinvigorated fighting force."
With a crisp salute to her troops, President Corazon C. Aquino exercised the power of Commander in Chief today with an appeal to ''our brothers and sisters'' in the Communist insurgency to join the nation in reconciliation.
''I mean to wage a campaign for peace,'' the President declared. ''I wish to persuade those insurgents who went to the hills because of despair rather than ideology to return now because there is hope.''
Her appeal to the guerrilla fighters, estimated to number 20,000 and holding substantial provincial territory, did not yet offer a specific proposal of amnesty. But it did include a stated willingness to fight them if necessary.
''It is still too early to claim with any assurance how many of those in the hills will heed our call and return to us,'' she said in her first address to the nation's military establishment at the graduation ceremony of the Philippine Military Academy. 'Reformed Fighting Force'
''Those who do not will face a reformed and reinvigorated fighting force,'' she said.
Showing firm resolve President Cory Aquino.....wait a minute. This is from 1986! Let's try again.
This week the President has vowed to crush the NPA once and for all.
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has approved the implementation of Operation Plan Bantay Laya II, a military master plan to crush various internal security threats that include the communist New People’s Army by 2010. Armed Forces chief Gen. Hermogenes Esperon Jr., who announced the presidential approval, said the plan calls for the defeat of the communist insurgency by the time the President’s term expires. Esperon said the campaign plan, which will take effect next month, also calls for the destruction of the terrorist Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah and containing of the southern Philippines secessionist groups.
AFP Chief Hermogenes Esperon Jr. vows that communist insurgency will be defeated by 2010 when President Arroyo's term.....uh oh Arryo? This is from 2006! I messed up again. Give me one more try. Third time's the charm.
This week the AFP, at the directive of the President, has unveiled a plan to finally defeat the NPA and end the communist insurgency once and for all.
Newly-installed Philippine military chief Lt. Gen. Ricardo David on Friday set a new two to three-year deadline to crush the communist insurgency in the Philippines.
Lt. Gen. David? He's not the AFP Chief! And this article is dated 2010! Why can't I get this right? It seems like I'm caught in a time warp! It's like the Presidents of the Philippines keep vowing the same thing which is to defeat the NPA and to defeat them now! Or by the end of their term anyway. Why just this week the President vowed that the communist insurgency will be defeated once and for all.
With three years left in office, President Duterte has directed the police and military anew to prepare a “less bloody” battle to eradicate the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army (CPP-NPA).
Duterte said the anti-insurgency campaign “will not be bloody” but it will be enough to create “a little trouble” and attract criticism.
“And I am serving notice to everybody that in the coming months, it will be not really bloody but there will be a little trouble for our country,” Duterte said during his speech at the 31st anniversary of the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) at the Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR) main office in Quezon City late Tuesday.
Duterte said he is more determined to stop communist insurgency, which he said has been dragging the country for over 50 years.
“We have to finish it (communist insurgency), including the campaign against illegal drugs), and this will make us a magnet for all criticisms that are waiting for us to do and commit their own,” Duterte said.
“As I said in the coming months, we would be dealing (against insurgency), connected with (this) issue of (land reform)… I do not think we can afford to wage a war another 53 years,” the President said.
“So, I am telling the military, can we end it now. We cannot afford to pass it on to the next generation, maybe they cannot afford to continue the fight. It has to be now,” he said.
Duterte's call to the military to finish it has not gone unheeded. The AFP agrees with Duterte 100%.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) on Friday said it is one with President Rodrigo R. Duterte in his desire to end local communist armed conflict now.
Being at the forefront of the anti-insurgency campaign, AFP spokesperson Marine Brig. Gen. Edgard Arevalo, said the military is devoted to attaining that ardent desire of the President and Commander-in-Chief.
"We have articulated that to him in the past, and his recent pronouncement only underscores his firm resolve to stop the menace the CPP-NPA brings," he said in a message forwarded to reporters.
"We have assessed the remaining challenges we need to address to attain our overarching objective of setting the conditions towards secured communities that will usher peace and development especially in the countryside," he said.
He added that the AFP will also use all means available—lethal and non-lethal— to hit the enemy and hit them hard.
"We will employ the different lines of efforts with other agencies of government address or help alleviate the identified social issues that the NPA capitalizes," Arevalo said.
"Together, in a whole of nation/whole of government passion, we are confident we will decisively defeat the terrorist CPP-NPA during the term of President Rodrigo Duterte. We have the upper hand we just have to maintain the initiative and sustain the gains," Arevalo said.
I don't know what you see and hear when you read that but what I see and hear are the same old promises and programs being repeated. Why is the AFP so confident they can "decisively defeat the terrorist CPP-NPA during the term of President Rodrigo Duterte" when in 2018 they were confident they could defeat the CPP-NPA by mid-2019?
The Department of National Defense (DND) believes that the military is on track to exterminate Philippine communist insurgency — the longest in Asia — by middle of 2019, as President Rodrigo Duterte has earlier predicted.
DND Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in his keynote speech at the agency’s 79th founding anniversary on Wednesday that their recent “victories” are leading to the end of communist insurgency by second quarter of 2019.
“With the influx of NPA (New People’s Army) surrenderers responding to the President’s sincere call for peace, the inter-agency Task Force Balik-Loob was created last April 2018 to centralize the government’s reintegration efforts for former rebels and oversee the enhanced comprehensive local integration program or e-clip,” Lorenzana noted.
He then mentioned that as of September 2018, there were 3,443 rebel returnees based on records of the AFP Peace and Development Office.
Obviously his prediction was wrong. But why was he so confident in the first place? He says 3,443 rebels had surrendered as of September 2018. So how many are left? Since the publication of this article hundreds more have surrendered. In 2010 the NPA was estimated at being less than 5,000.
Armed Forces chief Lt. Gen. Ricardo David unveiled on Tuesday the Philippine military's new counterinsurgency plan, Bayanihan which focuses on measures to cut poverty to defeat communist and Muslim rebels.
Under the new plan, the military will “focus on winning the peace, rather than simply defeating the enemy," David said, even as he sought public support for the military’s efforts to address the country’s various security threats. For the past 40 years, the Philippines has been fighting communist and Moro rebellions that have killed more than 160,000 people, displaced millions and hampered the development of the resource-rich country.
Under Bayanihan, troops will shift from combat operations to civilian-military work, such as building roads, schools, clinics and potable water systems in conflict areas across the country. “We shall embark on a paradigm shift," said David of the new plan. “This could be one of the most daring challenges (for) the institution, as it involves a change in our way of thinking, a change of mindset," he said.
Speaking at the anniversary ceremony, President Aquino ordered troops to put more effort into delivering social services and building rural infrastructure rather than chasing rebels. If we can stop poverty, then we can stop the war and the shooting, Aquino said. Saying that sustained peace was needed to foster growth and investment, he also announced that his government would nearly double monthly combat pay of the troops, and promised housing and medical benefits for soldiers. He also pledged to upgrade the military's capabilities to defeat internal threats and to protect the country's exclusive economic zones from poachers, smugglers and pirates.
The plan also provided a summary status of each group: It said that the NPA, with less than 5,000 members, was still a primary threat since it wielded influence over about 2.4 percent of all the country’s villages. According to Bayanihan, the MILF has about 10,500 fighters, but its clout is felt in about 18 percent of Mindanao’s 9,962 barangays.
Pretty funny that in 2010 the MILF was estimated at only 10,500 but now the government is set to decommission 40,000! Did the MILF really gain 30,000 members since 2010? Or are the AFP's numbers wrong? Even if the NPA's numbers were less than 5,000 in 2010 they have certainly continued to grow since then. Just do a search on how many NPA members there are and the numbers are all over the place. There is no official number. Not like there could be due to the nature of the group.
Aside from the false confidence the AFP has of 2019 they are also repeating the same mistakes in handling the insurgency thinking that the whole of nation approach is going to end the rebellion. The whole of nation approach is to provide infrastructure and government services to far-flung rural areas as well as ending poverty. That is the same policy Aquino advocated in 2010 and it is the same policy the AFP implemented in 2006.
The Philippine National Police (PNP) and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) are gearing up for an all-out war against communist rebels, in line with President Arroyo’s order to end the 37-year-old insurgency.
Meanwhile, Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno said Mrs. Arroyo’s executive order on the government’s anti-insurgency campaign would be known within next week.
Puno said the government would not be offensive and territorial in their anti-insurgency campaign.
"We will not be offensive, we will be defensive. We will not be territorial. The highlight of the program would be community relations, intensified activity linking up with LGUs (local government units)," Puno said.
"The idea is to get LGUs to assist the PNP in the counter insurgency campaign. The project would also involve construction of roads, daycare centers, and other facilities," he added.
How can you win an all out war and not be offensive? You can't! But even an all-out war that is offensive cannot be won if it is not sustained. This is from February 2017.
“Yes, it’s an all-out war. Ano ba ang pinagkakaiba nila sa Abu Sayyaf (How different are they from the Abu Sayyaf)? They are there to terrorize people to get money. That’s extortion; we will hunt them down,” Lorenzana told reporters in a Palace brieifing.
This is from June 2018.
"Wala pong planong (There is no plans regarding an) all-out-war. What we want now is all-out peace sapagkat lahat po ng (because all) efforts ng ating pamahalaan ay sinusuportahan ng Sandatahang Lakas ng Pilipinas upang ito ay matuloy (of our government are supported by the Armed Forces of the Philippines in order for these to push through)," Arevalo stressed.
All out peace? That is the result of Duterte's flip-flopping and his brief resumption of the peace talks. Of course he later called off the peace talks again. For good. Unless he resumes them once more. Is it any wonder that CPP founder Jose Maria Sison mocks the government for their continual "Oplans" against the NPA?
Since then, the AFP has implemented a series of Oplans that includes the following:
Oplan Katatagan during the martial law years, 1972-1986
Oplan Lambat-Bitag, Cory Aquino’s term, 1986-1992 and extended to the early years of FVR regime.
Oplan Pagkalinga (1996-1997) – FVR
Oplan Kaisaganaan (1997-1998) – FVR
Oplan Makabayan (1998-1999) – FVR
Oplan Balangai (1999-2001) – Estrada
Oplan Bantay Laya (2001-2009) – Arroyo
Oplan Bayanihan (2010-2016) – Aquino III
Oplan Kapayapaan (2016 – ) Duterte
One failed Oplan was replaced by another which invariably failed again. The government/AFP just kept recycling the program under different labels. Einstein had a term for this — “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
https://josemariasison.org/of-failed-oplans/
So what's to be done? How to defeat the communists? Maybe wait for Sison to die and watch the CPP disintegrate from internecine fighting.
More seriously much ink has been spilled and thought exerted to the solving of this problem. Here are the conclusions of two papers, Masters theses, on the topic. The first one, written in 2005, offers this conclusion.
The Armed Forces should concentrate its efforts in combat, intelligence and psychological operations to dismantle guerrilla fronts and clear villages and provinces of their control and influence. By neutralizing the enemy the government will be able to weaken the communist movement, arrest its growth and expansion and eventually defeat them. It was seen that even while hundreds of villages were already cleared of communist influence, hundreds more replace them, and that by neutralizing only a few, the movement is able to increase.
Destroying the enemy is what will prevent them from going to the people. With the CPP/NPA regulars operating in the area neutralized, the communist movement will be handicapped since there will no longer be party members and elements to go back to the formerly influenced villages to intimidate the locals, to penetrate new villages to recruit and expand its control, to train new recruits, and to perform their regular extortion and terroristic activities. By taking out leaders and members of the CPP/NPA, the government will undermine the capability of the insurgents to expand politico-military infrastructures and build and maintain guerrilla fronts.
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a441882.pdf
The second, from 2017, offers this conclusion.
Although, the underlying roots of insurgencies in the country are poverty and corruption, the crucial missing link to make the strategy work effectively is the “correct attitude” of both administrators and implementors. The “correct attitude” implies sincerity and dedication to performance without hesitation or personal interest in undue advancement. An attitude of carrying out continuous public services despite taking risks, and often sacrificing one’s own self for the good of the people is necessary. It is also an attitude of not coddling the “crooks” in the government, but of imposing appropriate sanctions or punishments on them. Finally, it is an attitude of going beyond “class and time” exactly as Magsaysay did. If this kind of behavior is inculcated in every public servant, especially in leadership, there will be no need for foreign sponsors to put pressure on the Government to get the job done. This kind of attitude also provides a needed link for good governance. If the administrators’ and implementors’ attitude is the opposite of the one outlined above, the roots of insurgency will certainly escalate and insurgents will continue to exist and multiply. If government administrators and implementors possess the “correct attitude,” they can achieve a more consistent and effective counterinsurgency program.
The Filipino people do not simply expect the GRP to provide security and to deliver the "physical infrastructure" needed for socio-economic development. More importantly, they also expect the government to demonstrate "moral infrastructure" in terms of discipline, respect for human rights, and knowledge of the people’s needs. These are the qualities that were emphasized in the re- education of the military forces during the campaigns of Magsaysay and Aquino. These are also the factors neglected by the Marcos administration. OEF-P shows that successful counterinsurgency operation can be achieved and sustained if there is collaboration among different government agencies from the national level down to the local level. If this process can be replicated in all areas of the country, then the Philippines will have a holistic and effective response against insurgency nationwide.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1010.5411&rep=rep1&type=pdf
The first paper advises the AFP to act offensively and destroy the enemy while the second paper recommends having a moral government that collaborates at every level. I wonder if anyone in the AFP or DND has read these papers and what they think of these recommendations.
