Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Martial Law: All-out War

Marital law was declared in Mindanao on May 23 because the Maute Group of ISLAMIC terrorists besieged the city of Marawi.  Five months later the city of Marawi was freed from the grip of these terrorists and the city has begun its path to renewal.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/22/17/govt-to-develop-marawi-ground-zero-from-scratch
“The plan is we will flatten all buildings in the most affected areas and we will build new structures, from two-lane highways to four-lane highways,” Roque said in a news conference in Marawi City. 
“We will have underground electric cables instead of the usual posts and we will make a promenade in Agus River, which will become a prime tourist attraction.”
Sounds ambitious and one does wish that all electric cables in the Philippines were underground rather than jumbled together on rotten leaning wooden posts.  What about this "prime tourist attraction?"  What tourists are they hoping to attract to Marawi?

The Canadian government on Tuesday warned its citizens to exercise a high degree of caution in the Philippines due to the threat of terrorism and the high level of crime. 
Canadians were told to avoid all travels to Mindanao, excluding urban areas of Davao City, due to serious threats of terrorist attacks and kidnapping. 
“There is a serious risk of terrorist attacks and kidnappings in this region. Bombs causing deaths and injuries have exploded in public areas of major centers, including the cities of Cagayan de Oro, Cotabato, General Santos, Isabela, Jolo, Kidapawan and Zamboanga,” the latest travel advisory said.
Who in their right mind would ever vacation in Mindanao? The place has been a hot bed of ISLAMIC terrorism for decades.  Now that the siege is over and the justification for martial law has gone what will happen next in Mindanao?  There are some who wish to see martial law remain in place as a means to fight terrorism  in the region.  
http://www.philstar.com/nation/2017/11/21/1761140/military-official-wants-armm-remain-under-martial-law
A senior military commander wants Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) to remain under the Martial Law. 
Lt. Gen. Carlito Galvez Jr., commander of Western Mindanao Command (Westmincom), said he wants to extend Martial Law in ARMM because of their assessment of the high level of acceptance of the people. 
“Based on what we see, though I don’t want to pre-judge, but for the Westmincom AOR it is safe for me to at least say that ARMM should be maintained under martial law and some other areas like part of Zamboanga and also area of Iligan,” Galvez said. 
Galvez, however, said the extension or the stay of Martial Law in Mindanao will still depend on the assessment based consultation with the people. 
"The people are asking, they want martial law will continue because they see that due to martial law they will feel more safe," Galvez said. 
"Unlike the martial law during the early days, The martial law we have currently the full constitutional rights of our citizens is being protected. We have seen in Marawi even though we have the martial law the high level of acceptance of the military from the civilian populace. Not only in Marawi but also the whole populace (whole nation) that the military can be trusted in the implementation of martial law," Galvez added.
Where does Gen. Galvez get the notion that the extension of martial law depends on a consultation with the people?  There are strict provisions in the constitution for when martial law can be declared. All over social media one will read anecdotal statements about the people of Mindanao wanting and applauding marital law because they feel safer. The emphasis is always that these people support Duterte's declaration and not the sad fact that for the people of Mindanao to feel safe they need martial law. Those who support martial law seem to not realise that if you need martial law to feel safe then something has gone horribly wrong.

If martial law is to be continued there needs to be a legal justification for Congress to extend it.  The opinions of the people of Mindanao don't matter one bit.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/11/21/1760981/martial-law-extension-needs-justification-says-drilon
Article 7 section 18 of the constitution spells out the reasons martial law can be declared.
In case of invasion or rebellion, when the public safety requires it, he may, for a period not exceeding sixty days, suspend the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus or place the Philippines or any part thereof under martial law.
http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/constitutions/1987-constitution/
It's not very likely that an invasion will be happening anytime soon and pubic safety has always been at risk in Mindanao so those options as justification for the extension of martial law are out. But what could possibly happen that would constitute a rebellion?

An all-out war with the NPA.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/947228/duterte-signs-proclamation-no-360-terminating-peace-talks-with-npa-duterte-peace-talks-termination-npa
http://www.manilatimes.net/military-declares-war-vs-reds/364817/
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/947217/joma-says-npa-to-intensify-war-calls-duterte-no-1-terrorist-joma-sison-npa-attacks-peace-talks-duterte-palace
“The Filipino people and revolutionary forces waging the people’s democratic revolution have no choice but to intensify the people’s war through extensive and intensive guerrilla warfare in rural areas and partisan or commando operations in urban areas,” Sison said in a statement.
Last week Duterte moved to cancelled the peace talks with the communists and he also officially declared that they are a terrorist organisation. This week he has signed an order officially ending the peace talks, the military has declared war on the NPA, and the leader of the CPP-NPA has vowed to intensify "the people's war." And Duterte is only too eager to oblige them.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/11/21/1761195/duterte-npas-want-war-ill-give-it-them
The goal of the CPP has always been to overthrow the government.

http://web.stanford.edu/group/mappingmilitants/cgi-bin/groups/view/149
There is no negotiating with a group which is working to eradicate you. The inevitable war with the NPA is now upon us and if all goes according to plan this war will be the excuse to not only extend martial law in Mindanao but to expand it over the entire country.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/946432/evidence-of-plot-to-disrupt-asean-summit-found-in-npa-camp-afp-says
If coordinated attacks were carried out all over the Philippines the people would certainly get in line with support for war and martial law would be clamoured for by the people and politicians as a means to effectively handle the situation.  This is a classic dialectic of problem, reaction, solution. 

At the same time the undertrained and ill-equipped AFP is at war with the NPA the war against MUSLIM terrorists in Mindanao will be on-going. It will be a multi-front war across all 7,641 islands of the Philippine archipelago with Mindanao being the main theatre of conflict.
http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/23/17/new-terror-leaders-emerging-after-marawi-war-says-military
New terror leaders have begun to emerge one month after fighting between government forces and Islamic State-inspired extremists here ended, a military official said Thursday.
New terror leaders emerging to reshape and lead the remains of the Maute Group and Abu Sayyaf. A newly declared war with the NPA. It's only going to get worse in Mindanao.

But wait! There's more!

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-rouhani-islamic-state/irans-president-declares-end-of-islamic-state-idUSKBN1DL0J5
“Today with God’s guidance and the resistance of people in the region we can say that this evil has either been lifted from the head of the people or has been reduced,” Rouhani said in an address broadcast live on state TV.  
“Of course the remnants will continue but the foundation and roots have been destroyed.”
After years of fighting in Syria and Iraq the president of Iran has declared ISIS is finished. What does this mean for the Philippines? It means that if President Rouhani is correct we could see the remnants he mentions set up shop in Mindanao in an even bigger way that they have now. Remember it was in 2014 that the call went out for fighters to make their way to the Philippines to spread jihad. Many heeded that call.  Many are still heeding that call. 

This declaration must be taken with a huge grain of salt but should jihadis begin flocking en masse to the Philippines to wage war against the kafirs the AFP is totally unprepared to deal with that situation and the world knows it. Marawi showed everyone an inept and bungling military which was kept at bay for five months by only 1,000 jihadists. Did they get the job done? Yeah they did but not without a hard struggle which they admit they were not prepared for.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/11/08/1756916/lorenzana-marawi-showed-afp-woefully-inadequate-vs-terror
Hard challenges and hard choices are coming in the next month. What will happen before year's end? God only knows but the immediate future does not look so bright. It looks bloody.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/947666/rodrigo-duterte-npa-clashes-afp-npa-clashes-communist-rebels-first-scout-ranger-regiment-jose-maria-sison
There will be more blood. President Rodrigo Duterte, already being criticized for the bloodshed that marred his war on drugs, told  soldiers to prepare for heightened violence following his decision to scuttle peace talks with communist rebels. 
The rebels, Mr. Duterte told members of the First Scout Ranger Regiment, “will strike again.” 
“There will be virulent confrontations,” he said a day after signing Proclamation No. 360 terminating peace talks with communist rebels. 
“Be prepared for that,” said the President, who wore a Ranger uniform in a gesture that appeared to deliver the message that he was ready for a full-scale war with communist rebels.

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