Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Martial Law: Denial Mode

The theme for this week's marital law update is "lies." When has "lies" ever not been the theme of these updates? Sure some of the lies have been relatively harmless instances of saving face and attempting to look competent such as the AFP saying there are so many terrorists left or the battle will be over in so many days.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/943548/pnp-says-malaysian-emir-alive-afp-says-hes-dead

This is an example of a relatively harmless lie. The lie being that either the AFP or the PNP knows the truth of the matter. Until the new ISIS emir is found he is in a state of quantum superposition between life and death.  Once he is observed the wave function will collapse and a definite reality will be established. The new emir sounds a lot like Schrödinger's cat.

But other lies have been much more pernicious and harmful such as Duterte changing the narrative on how the conflict began (arresting Hapilon vs arresting a drug lord) or declaring that Marawi is liberated and free even a week before combat operations were declared officially over. This week the lying reaches a new height of outrageousness in two particular instances which have international implications.

The first lie comes from the mouth of Defense Secretary Lorenzana,
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/11/08/1756916/lorenzana-marawi-showed-afp-woefully-inadequate-vs-terror
Lorenzana said that the five-month battle for Marawi City was an eye-opener for the Armed Forces, which had been in denial mode despite warnings that religious extremism was threatening to spread in the region.
Denial mode? The AFP had been in denial mode about the presence of ISIS in the Philippines?  This is certainly how ABS-CBN interpreted those remarks.

Listen to the whole speech and hear for yourself.




The relevant sections are 3:29 - 4:17.
On terrorism. Marawi actually is an eye opener for all of us. Marawi showed us, the defense department, how woefully inadequate our capabilities is to face this kind of a problem. Although we have been warned beforehand that terrorism is already in the country, for the longest time I think the AFP had been in denial mode that (unintelligible) is here until Marawi broke out. But we are thankful for the assistance that were given to us by our friends the different countries that came to help. I think he first that was there was actually the United States with  their technical assistance. 
And 4:58 -5:47.
So for the terrorism I think what we have been doing in the past years when we know that the ISIS in the Middle East were actually directing their fighters to go home to where they come from and establish cells. We have fighters in the Middle East who are from Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and to a certain extent also Singapore. And we are actually in contact with some of the countries fighting the ISIS in the Middle East and they have been giving us some names of these fighters who are there and we are really anxious to find out if they find their way back home. 
Do you see the lies and contradictions in these two sections of his speech? In the first he says the AFP had been in denial mode about the presence of ISIS in the country.  Yet in the second he says for the past few years they had been in coordination with nations fighting ISIS in the Middle East to name and locate fighters returning to SEA. 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-11/australia-philippines-vow-cooperation-against-islamic-state/7020372

It is inconceivable that the AFP had been in denial mode about the presence of ISIS in the Philippines when the government had vowed to work with Australia and other nations in fighting ISIS in SEA. Lorenzana is lying to all those ASEAN delegates and for what purpose? SolGen Calida gave a completely different testimony before the Supreme Court regarding what the AFP knew about the presence of ISIS in the Philippines.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/172777-isis-military-marawi-crisis-martial-law-calida
In the comment, Calida said the government had known as early as 2014 that there were links to ISIS being established by local groups in Mindanao. This is contrary to the stance taken by government at the time, under former president Benigno Aquino III: there is no ISIS in the Philippines. 
Citing the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), Calida said propaganda materials obtained from ISIS indicate that local groups had already pledged their allegiance to the caliphate as early as November 2014. 
So which is it? Did the AFP know as early as 2014 as Calida says or is Lorenzana correct when he says the the AFP was in denial mode and that Marawi was a wake up call? This kind of muddied water about who knew what and when is exactly why an investigation into Marawi must be undertaken by the Senate which has the power to subpoena and compel the men who know such things to testify. But such an investigation is not forthcoming anytime soon and never forget that Lorenzana stands adamantly opposed to any investigation, likening it to "finger pointing and blaming."
"The time of blaming somebody or pointing somebody is past that, ito na nga nangyari. We can no longer bring back the lives of those 110 people killed, 900 wounded," Lorenzana said.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/07/27/1722033/dnd-admits-lack-intel-validation-marawi-siege
The problem with this lie is that is shows the Philippines is not to be trusted. Why give the Philippines intel reports it won't verify? Why give the Philippines aid to fight terrorism when the they would rather appease the terrorists than destroy them? This lie is the worst sort of blame shifting because the DND knew 100% that ISIS was making inroads to the Philippines and if that information was not relayed to the AFP then that means the DND failed in a big way.

The second lie comes from Duterte.  

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/944642/philippine-news-updates-marawi-siege-islamic-state-terrorism-vladimir-putin-president-duterte-apec
However, the weapons shipment, believed to be the first ever from Russia to the US security ally, arrived on Oct. 25, a week after Mr. Duterte declared victory over the pro-IS fighters in Marawi. 
“According to my soldiers, the arms that you sent are very accurate and they were able to take care of the snipers that abounded,” Mr. Duterte said.
Russia was the last country to send any aid to the Philippines during the battle of Marawi but none of that aid arrived until AFTER the battle had been declared over by Duterte.  It is not possible that Russian weapons helped turned the tide when they were not there until the battle was over. Why would Duterte offer up such a blatant lie to Putin? Putin is not a man to mess with. He is not Obama. And this is not the first time he has lied to Putin either.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/05/24/1703174/duterte-asks-putin-loan-purchase-firearms
“If you (Putin) can grant me a soft loan right now… The arms deal with America got canceled,” Duterte told Putin during the meeting.
Duterte went to Russia to ask for a loan to buy weapons because the arms deal with America got cancelled and the Philippines needs weapons. But who really cancelled that arms deal?
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/842010/duterte-cancels-us-firearms-deal
Don't think Duterte is not still looking for a loan.
Mr. Duterte said Manila could buy Russian arms through “a soft loan with enough years to earn the money to pay them.”
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/944642/philippine-news-updates-marawi-siege-islamic-state-terrorism-vladimir-putin-president-duterte-apec
The problem with this lie is that it hampers any alliance the Philippines could be making with Russia. You can't build friendship on the back of lies. Duterte is very determined to ally the Philippines with Russia and China and turn as much as he can from the USA. For what reason?  For what possible reason?  For a century now the USA has been the Philippines' third leg propping it up and giving all sorts of aid from money to arms to everything in between. In his previously quoted speech Lorenzana notes that it was the USA who was the first to offer help in the battle of Marawi. All throughout the conflict the Americans provided weapons, money, intelligence, and training. Russia gave nothing until it was over.

This wild west sheriff act Duterte has going on where it is he who dictates the Philippines foreign policy is going to be bad in the long run. When he is gone what course will the next President follow? The Philippines needs a consistent vision for the future and a coherent foreign policy to match it.  Historically this kind of thing has been accomplished in smoky backrooms far from the public eye with a consensus of bankers, industrialists, and politicians. Certainly an unstable lone wolf in Malacañang Palace who thinks that telling a story of how he stabbed someone to death when he was a teenager is a joke should not be making these kind of decisions on his own.

These lies are part of a broader trend within the Philippine government and society. The trend is to keep repeating the mantra "The Philippines is safe" when it is absolutely not a safe place. From tandem killers to everyday muggings to ISLAMIC terrorists in the South the Philippines remains in a permanent sate of disruption and destabilisation. It is not the Yellows who are destabilising the Philippines. It is the high rate of crime and terrorism which is destabilising the Philippines and has destabilised the Philippines for decades now.
http://archive.is/gkd0O
The Army official said they used MG520 attack helicopters as they launched air strikes, since Wednesday.  The air assault is now on its fourth day this Saturday, Alcarioto said.
The AFP has been engaged with BIFF in Cotabato for four days via air assault and all the press wants to publish is the petty back and forth between Roque and DDS! Duterte said previously Cotabato was shaping up to be the next hot zone of jihad and it seems he was right. Mindanao is not safe. Why would anyone think it is?

Neither is Marawi safe or clear.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/944744/marawi-siege-government-troops-reach-terrorist-strongholds
He said the completion of the military clearing operation – which would be announced as soon as no more straggler was sighted or found, and that no more IED was discovered, could come anytime soon. 
“But as of now, we cannot still do that because your soldiers are still searching to make sure it would already be safe for everyone,” he said.
Martial law could be lifted in just a few short weeks but then what? What happens when martial law is gone? The crime rate will increase again that is what!

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/davao/local-news/2017/05/28/zero-crime-rate-davao-3-days-after-martial-law-544331
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/zamboanga/local-news/2017/05/29/martial-law-helps-reduce-crime-rate-zamboanga-city-544587
Crime is so problematic in Mindanao that it takes extreme measures like martial law to put a stop to it.  But without the strictures of martial law things will go back to normal.
http://www.philstar.com/nation/2016/04/02/1568394/murder-rate-highest-davao-city-pnp
Marawi is not safe. Mindanao is not safe. The Philippines is not safe. Lying about what the AFP knew or did not know about the presence of ISIS will not make the country any safer. The DND must face the terrorism problem head-on in the most truthful manner. The truth is that Mindanao is filled with jihadis of every stripe and colour under the sun and they must all be eradicated. Total obliteration. No negotiation. No BBL. Surrender or die. Misuari and the MNLF and MILF are enemy combatants who must be dealt with as such.

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/12/17/duterte-nobody-won-the-war-in-marawi
“Nobody won that war, not the government. We were able to kill many... [but] it does not promote peace in this world,” Duterte said in his speech during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Business and Investment Summit.
False humility won't win the war against terrorism. How can Duterte rejoice in and encourage the death of drug users but lament the deaths of ISLAMIC terrorists? Once the ISLAMIC terrorists are eradicated peace will reign in Mindanao.
Only then can the Philippines play host to international events without their guests being threatened with assassination plots.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/659342/Donald-Trump-ISIS-Philippines-Threat-Terror-Attack-US-President-Assassination-Propaganda
Mabuhay, Sir President Trump.

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