Martial Law: Stalemate

August 30th, 2017 marked the 100th day of the Battle of Marawi and of martial law in Mindanao. An auspicious occasion to be sure.  Everyone is tired of the conflict and ready for it to be over.  Any day now right?

http://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/national/afp-preparing-for-one-final-push-vs-isis-maute-in-marawi-city/ar-AAqOWIY

Government forces are preparing for one final push against the ISIS-inspired Maute Group after the bandits reportedly have been confined in a small portion of Marawi City, the Armed Forces of the Philippines said on Monday.  

He said the Maute would fight it out until the very last.  

He cannot say when the final battle will be but he expressed confidence that the troops on the ground already knew what to do.

One final push that could come at anytime. And the Maute fighters won't go down without a fierce fight.  After all, the AFP killed their father!

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/08/28/restituto-padilla-cayamora-maute-intensify-fight-marawi.html

BJMP Spokesperson SInsp. Xavier Solda said the Maute patriarch was rushed to the Taguig-Pateros Hospital. He had hypertension, type 1 diabetes, and hepatitis.

Well he died in their custody anyway. Surely they can't let that pass. They are going to need more men to fight the AFP.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/08/29/1733789/10-maute-men-killed-trying-enter-marawi-war-zone

The dead were initially identified as Muktar, Abu Talib, Ismael, Samson and Nidal, all adolescents.

Young men with nothing to lose.  Basically children. There are many such cases. Sad.

Consider the following:

Maute is cornered.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/regions/623688/maute-group-hapilon-cornered-in-500-square-meter-area-afp/story/

And running low on supplies.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/08/31/1734390/afp-maute-running-low-food-ammunition

What better time to push right in and blow them away?

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/926796/marawi-siege-melquiades-ordiales-mapandi-bridge-rolando-joselito-bautista 

The military stepped up airstrikes and mortar attack on the 500-square-meter pocket of the city on Tuesday to soften resistance from the Maute and Abu Sayyaf gunmen holed up in buildings there and clear the way for the government troops’ final push, Brig. Gen. Rolando Joselito Bautista, commander of the 1st Infantry (Tabak) Division, said on Wednesday.  

“[I]t took us about two months to reach this bridge. [I]t took us one week to take it [and] be able to cross [to] this street. And we had so many casualties. We had a hard time in this very small space. We had a hard time crossing this bridge because the enemies had positioned themselves well,” Ordiales said. 

Petinglay said the situation was complicated by the presence of civilians among the
terrorists. 

The terrorists were still holding about 50 civilians as hostages, she said.

Two months to reach the bridge and one week to take it. Progress but slow progress. Duterte told them to take their time because of the civilian hostages.  But listen to what the MILF has to say.

The government has to end the conflict soon, or the residents of Marawi who have been displaced by the fighting may become more restive, according to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest Moro insurgent group in Mindanao that has signed a peace agreement with the state.  

“Failure to do so by [the] government will perpetuate the conflict in Mindanao,” the MILF said on its website, luwaran.com., on Wednesday. 

“Clearly, the Maute group does not enjoy popular support for now. But the civilians are caught between two evils, the Maute group’s terrorism and the massive destruction caused by artillery bombardment and aerial bombing. Add the heightening perception of the people that the government is going to drive them away, because the city is sitting on mostly military reservation,” it added. 

“Add also the perceived lukewarm attitude of the government and the [House of Representatives] in fast-tracking the passage of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law,” it said.

Is this supposed to be some kind of blackmail?  Who do this group think it is that they can force the government to do anything? The conflict in Mindanao has been perpetuated because of Islam. That is the driving ideology that has been fueling the conflict since the Spanish settled the area 500 years ago. They really want an Islamic State (BBL) established in Mindanao. Only a fool would think that passing the BBL would quench hostilities. 

So they want the conflict ended soon? Get in line! Even Duterte is tired of the war.  So much so that he has now reversed course on his decision to not bomb any mosques.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/180658-duterte-allows-military-bomb-marawi-mosques-terrorists-hostages

On the 100th day of the Marawi siege, President Rodrigo Duterte said he won't stop the Philippine military from bombing the remaining strongholds of terrorists in the city, including mosques where hostages are also likely being kept.  

"The option is already yours, because we cannot have stalemate for over one year. Kung makiusap tayo na lumabas na lang (If we can talk so they are released), 'Free the hostages, do not harm them, do not cut their heads,'" he said on Wednesday, August 30. 

But Duterte said he will still try to save the hostages. He has sent an emissary to convince terrorists in the city to release their captives. 

"I have sent somebody na (already), if we can save the day for all of us," the President said. 

The plan to bomb terrorists' hiding places, and in so doing "sacrifice" the hostages, had been suggested by the military weeks before but Duterte instructed them to "wait it out.""Matagal na 'yan on deck na talagang gustong bobombahin ang mosque to capture or kill the leaders there and in the process sacrifice 'yung mga hostage," he said. 

(That plan has been on deck for a long time – to bomb mosques to capture or kill the leaders there and in the process sacrifice the hostages.) 

"But I have my limits, even if I'm president, hanggang diyan lang ako (that's my limit), I cannot go beyond that," he added.

But even if all the Maute are dead and the city is freed martial law is not going to be lifted anytime soon.

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/09/02/duterte-martial-law-mindanao-terror-threat.html

President Rodrigo Duterte on Friday said he has considered lifting martial law in Mindanao but a possible spillover of the terror crisis held him back.  

"I was thinking that we could, you know, lift it earlier. But the way it looks, parang may spillover na sa ARMM eh. Sa Buldon (It seems there's a spillover in Buldon in ARMM)," Duterte told members of the Eastern Mindanao Command during their founding anniversary celebration in Davao City.  

Buldon is a town in Maguindanao over 130 kilometers south of Marawi City, the provincial capital of Lanao del Sur and battleground of government troops and terrorists for more than three months. Both are in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).  

Duterte said while he is "leaving it to the military and the police to solve the problem," he might still end military rule depending on the situation on the ground.  

"Let us see. If it is to the interest of the country that I will lift it, I will lift it. But if not, then we'll just have to continue with the martial law," he said.  

The military earlier said they have prevented any possible spillover of the Marawi crisis.

If there really is a threat 130 kilometres south of Marawi then that is not spillover. That is a whole new threat. Wouldn't it be terrible if fighters heeded the call ISIS put out to go to Mindanao and fight? 

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/927329/president-duterte-islamic-state-maute-group-milf-maguindanao-armm

President Rodrigo Duterte’s claim of around 100 fully-armed Islamic State-inspired militants being sighted in hinterlands of Buldon, Maguindanao had been verified, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) said on Friday.  

Duterte, in a speech before soldiers in Davao City on the same day, said he feared a spillover of the Marawi crisis because of the sighting of the armed men in Buldon, a Maguindanao town near Lanao del Sur. 

Von Al Haq, the MILF spokesperson, told the Inquirer by phone they asked their men to immediately verify Duterte’s claim and it turned out positive.

Is the Philippines now relying on enemies of the state, and MILF is a terrorist group which is an enemy of the state, to gather intelligence? Is MILF reliable? Can they be trusted? This is the same group that killed 44 special forces troops back in January 2015. Is the AFP going to independently verify this claim?

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/09/02/marawi-spillover-maguindanao-maute-conflicting-reports.html 

Western Mindanao Command (WesMinCom) commander Lt. Gen. Carlito Galvez Jr. said on Saturday confirmed President Rodrigo Duterte's assessment that the ISIS-inspired terrorist group Maute already has already extended its influence outside Marawi.  

"We agree with the President na talagang yung Maute-ISIS group, their influence has also extended to Southern Mindanao. That's why the MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) are now doing their best to contain the situation in Maguindanao," Galvez told CNN Philippines. 

The WesMinCom confirmed there had been clashes between the MILF, who is siding with the government, and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in Maguindanao, who are supporting the Maute group. 

However, authorities in Maguindanao have denied the presence of Maute members in Buldon. 

Buldon police chief Insp. Sandro Ampad, members of the 37th Infantry Batallion led by Lt. Col. Jun Pulitod, and 6th Infantry Division chief Maj. Gen. Arnel Dela Vega all said their intelligence-gathering efforts yielded no reports on the presence of the terror group in Maguindanao.

The source of these conflicting reports is very easy to spot.  BIFF is siding with ISIS and Maute but they are not Maute.  They are BIFF.  Since BIFF is siding with ISIS they are to be considered Maute or ISIS fighters.  But the authorities in Maguindanao deny the presence of Maute fighters neglecting the fact that even though BIFF is not Maute they are ISIS and Maute sympathisers. So technically they are correct in saying there is no Maute members in the area. And that is why intelligence gathering in the Philippines is a losing game.  

But what about this: "the MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) are now doing their best to contain the situation in Maguindanao."  This is a terrorist group who is threatening to continue it's fight with the government if the BBL is not passed. They are enemies of the state.  And now they are doing the job of the AFP in containing the situation and gathering intelligence? 

The absurdities of the conflict in Mindanao are getting to be too much. But don't worry there will be more to come. 

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/09/04/1735663/marawi-crisis-stalemate

“It is a stalemate now because of my asking the military to slow down,” Duterte, likening the situation to a chess game, said at the birthday party of Davao City Rep. Karlo Nograles late Saturday.

Stalemate? I thought the AFP were going forward with their final push.  That they had retaken the Grand Mosque.  That Maute was now cornered into 500 sq km. That now they had authority to bomb mosques if so needed. That the AFP was finally starting to win. What's this business about a stalemate?

A chess game? If Duterte means all these soldiers are pawns in his game then sure. The whole situation in Mindanao is part of his chess game of which the end goal is a revolutionary government and new constitution.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/926553/duterte-floats-idea-of-revolutionary-government-for-ph

“For me, my advice to a President who wants to change [is] do not go for martial law,” Duterte said in his speech. “They will just make an issue of it. Go for a revolutionary government so that everything will be finished.” 

The President said he was “not joking” but added that he was “not into it.” 

“For the Philippines to really go up, I said: What the people need is not martial law. Go for what Cory did – revolutionary government. But don’t look at me. I cannot go there.”

Don't believe him when he says, "I can't go there."  It's the same thing he said about martial law and yet now Mindanao is under martial law.  Revolutionary government has been his goal from the beginning.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/696757/duterte-to-declare-revolutionary-govt-once-elected

Even without direct admission that he will join the presidential race in 2016, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte on Sunday declared he would not hesitate to place the country under a “revolutionary government” to rein in lawlessness should he become the next President. 

“If I am the President, [and] I cannot achieve the reforms I want within six months or one year, I will declare a revolutionary government,” Duterte told over 1,500 multisectoral representatives who attended the National Peace, Development and Federalism Symposium held in one of the malls here. 

Duterte reiterated that the presidency is God’s destiny. But he quickly added: “If God makes me the President, God will the first one to cry.” 

The crowd responded with wild applause.

It is best to take Duterte's word seriously but not to believe a thing he says.  Remember when he said before that the crisis would be over in a three days?

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/927722/duterte-sees-end-of-marawi-crisis-by-december

The Marawi crisis should end soon so that the government can deal with other problems that could erupt into bigger troubles, President Rodrigo Duterte said on Saturday. 

Mr. Duterte was referring to the peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, whose members are becoming restive over the delay in the passage of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law in Congress. 

“I have until the end of the year to contain this thing,” Mr. Duterte told reporters here late on Saturday after attending the birthday celebration of Davao City Rep. Karlo Alexei Nograles.

“I have until the end of the year to contain this thing.” This "thing" has been ongoing for 500 years now. If he thinks he will be able to end the Moro conflict by December then there's a bridge in Brooklyn someone wants to sell him.