Insurgency: The Right Time

Last week President Marcos formally declared amnesty for the NPA and Islamic terrorist groups. While some people saw this as a betrayal of his office and the people the AFP says amnesty has come at the right time. 

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/889595/cpp-npa-ndf-amnesty-being-given-at-the-right-time-afp/story/

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) believed that it was the right time for President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to grant former members of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF) amnesty.

Interviewed on Super Radyo dzBB on Sunday, AFP spokesperson Colonel Medel Aguilar said the CPP-NPA-NDF had only over 1,000 members left, and about 400 of them were facing charges.

Aguilar added that it would greatly help the country attain peace if these rebels availed of the amnesty. 

(This is the only time they've again declared an amnesty for the CPP-NPA-NDF. During the time of former President Duterte, Congress did not concur. So, the previous declaration was not implemented. With Marcos as president, an amnesty for the CPP-NPA-NDF was declared again because it is an opportune time. And at the same time, we see that they are weakening.)

This estimate of "only over 1,000 member left, concurs with the estimate of 1,400 NPA left given a few weeks ago. It is interesting to note that while Duterte declared amnesty Congress did not concur and the amnesty was not implemented. But the NTF-ELCAC has been a de facto amnesty program giving surrendering NPA and Islamic terrorists hundreds of thousands of pesos, free housing, and free job training in a bid to reintegrate them into society. 

The AFP also claims there are no more active NPA guerrilla fronts. 

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/889809/npa-has-no-more-active-guerilla-front-says-afp/story/

The communist New People's Army no longer has an active guerilla front, the Armed Forces of the Philippines said on Tuesday.

AFP Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner Jr. said that the military arm of the Communist Party of the Philippines only had 20 "weakened fronts."

"Wala na po tayong active guerrilla fronts,” Brawner told reporters in Malacañang. (There are no more active guerilla fronts.)

“By the end of this year, we are expecting five of these 20 to be finally dissolved. Magiging 15 weakened guerrilla fronts na lang ang matitira,” he said. (There will only be 15 weakened guerilla fronts left.)

If these fronts are "weakened" then that means they are still active. Again we see designations that make no sense. The AFP is still fighting the NPA because they continue to pose a threat. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1865585/no-ceasefire-on-communist-insurgency

Even as amnesty was recently given to rebel returnees, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) on Saturday said “there would be no ceasefire” in the fight against communist insurgency.

Under Proclamations 403 to 406 released to the media on Friday, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. gave amnesty to former members of different rebel groups, including the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF).

“While we are offering this opportunity for them to return to the folds of the law, we will continue to exert pressure,” AFP spokesperson Col. Medel Aguilar said during the Saturday News Forum in Quezon City.

“We will continue to conduct security patrol. Kasi ‘yung encounter po, nangyayari naman ito dahil sila ay nandyan at lumalaban,” he added, pertaining to the rebel groups.

(Encounters with rebel groups happen because they are there and fighting.)

No ceasefire because the NPA is still fighting. 

Aside from amnesty President Marcos has also announced the government is exploring restarting peace talks. However, the NDFP's demands to start the talks might hamper that restart. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1867214/cpp-lays-out-demands-to-bolster-peace-negotiations-between-govt-ndfp

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) on Tuesday laid out its demands to further bolster the peace negotiations between its political wing, the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP), and the government.

The NDFP and the Philippine government, through a joint communique, have reached a tentative agreement to seek a peaceful resolution to armed conflict.

“The Oslo Joint Statement is a first half-step in the long march leading to the resumption of formal peace negotiations, and in the even longer road of achieving the people’s aspiration for a just and lasting peace,” CPP spokesperson Marco Valbuena said in a statement.

“To clear the road for peace negotiations, it is the distinct responsibility of Marcos to take the initiative to sweep away the Duterte-period thorns and spikes which litter it,” Valbuena also said.

To allow the negotiations to move forward, Valbuena said the government should release all the NDFP peace consultants and repeal the “terrorist designation” of the NDFP, the CPP, and its armed wing, the New People’s Army (NPA).

“These are critical and practical measures, without which it is doubtful that peace negotiations can even proceed,” Valbuena said of this request.

The CPP also urged Marcos to dismantle the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict, as well as the release of all political prisoners, which Valbuena said now stands at over 800 people.

Valbuena said the dismantling of NTF-Elcac and the release of political prisoners will make “the march towards peace to move forward quickly.”

The government has said there are no plans to abolish the NTF-ELCAC so it appears peace talks are dead in the water. Presidential Peace Adviser Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. has said suck demands will derail the peace talks.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1869409/demands-by-communist-rebels-may-derail-peace-talks-galvez

Presidential Peace Adviser Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. called on supporters of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) not to make demands that may thwart the upcoming peace talks between the government and communist rebels to finally put an end to one of the longest insurgencies in the world.

“There should be no preconditions whatsoever, as these can derail future discussions. As we have learned from our past experiences, making such preconditions even before the start of the discussions puts a huge burden on both sides when there is still a need to agree on the parameters and framework of the talks,” Galvez said in a statement on Saturday.

“We respect and appreciate your suggestions. But now is not the time to issue such premature and provocative statements that will compromise the initial ‘goodwill’ that has been painstakingly built in Oslo,” he added.

As with amnesty some people have seen the resumption of peace talks as a betrayal of the people and the nation. But it should be noted peace talks have not been restarted and the government is only looking into the possibility of their resumption. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1867991/no-formal-peace-talks-yet-with-ndfp-just-exploratory-talks-teodoro

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. on Wednesday allayed the suspicion of some military personnel about a softening stance against communist rebels with the ongoing “exploratory talks” between the government and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP).

Teodoro stressed that there were no formal peace talks yet but only “exploratory talks” that seek to peacefully address the root of the communist armed conflict as stated by their Oslo Joint Communiqué.

“Naturally, there were [reactions] because the headline that came out actually is peace talks. But that is not the correct situation,” Teodoro said on the sidelines of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Leadership Summit held here when asked about the morale of the troops after the move.

“These are exploratory talks. There are no formal peace talks yet and so the people who are reacting are jumping the gun,” he added.

“What is clear here is that the armed forces will continue their law enforcement operations.”

The AFP on Wednesday also backed the exploratory talks being pursued by the government and the NDFP.

“This initiative will save precious lives,” the AFP public affairs chief, Colonel Xerxes Trinidad, said in a statement.

Trinidad also welcomed the NDFP’s “willingness … to pursue peaceful means of effecting societal reforms other than armed struggle.”

“We expect that all members of the underground movement will follow its lead,” Trinidad said.

Meanwhile, the Philippine Army, which directly deals with the insurgency, also welcomed the development, saying in a statement: “We view and appreciate the exploratory talks with guarded optimism and welcome this development as it aims to address the issue of peace that shall pave the way to the development of the country.”

The Army also vowed to “neutralize” what was left of the New People’s Army (NPA).

“While there is no final peace framework, the Philippine Army would still continue its efforts to sustain the gains in Internal Security Operations by dismantling the weakened guerilla fronts and neutralizing the remaining armed groups.

It's rather odd that some military personnel would be concerned "about a softening stance against communist rebels" because of the possibility of renewed peace talks and yet have nothing to say about the government's E-CLIP and NTF-ELCAC bribery program. Amnesty, peace talks, and the NTF-ELCAC all are of the same kind. 

Despite the news that the insurgency is waning one Department of Education official claims it is thriving and schools are being targeted. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1867722/deped-exec-says-schools-become-targets-of-propaganda

A Department of Education (DepEd) official said Wednesday that schools “may become targets of propaganda” as “the youth, especially the out-of-school youth, become vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups and government forces.”

During a Senate public hearing, DepEd Undersecretary Revsee Escobedo cited information from years ago which showed “violent incidents, including armed conflicts,” affected more than 10,000 schools in parts of the country where the insurgency was thriving.

The Senate committee on public order and dangerous drugs on Tuesday conducted an inquiry into the alleged continuous radicalization and recruitment of students in educational institutions to the local communist organizations. The hearing was led by panel chair Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, a former chief of the Philippine National Police.

“[An] alarming data from Basic Education Information System (BEIS) reveals that from SY 2009-2010 to 2017-2018, 10,883 schools nationwide [have] reported the effects of violent incidents, including armed conflicts,” Escobedo said.

He also noted that the impacts of violent incidents, including armed conflicts, on schools were severe, ranging from damage to facilities and disruptions of classes.

Escobedo did not provide the list of schools in the BEIS data but noted that most violent incidents occurred in Mindanao, Bicol Region, and Eastern Visayas.

“Particularly concerning is the consistent presence of all six regions in Mindanao, as well as Regions V and VIII, among the top 10 regions each year with the highest proportion of schools affected by armed conflict,” he explained.

Escobedo stressed that armed conflict creates “unsafe environments” because learners face the risk of being victims of grave child rights violations.

“The youth, especially out-of-school youths, become vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups and government forces. Schools may also become targets for propaganda and recruitment purposes, endangering the safety of students and compromising the educational environment,” he pointed out.

Dela Rosa, meanwhile, said communist groups are drawing the encounters toward schools to implicate students.

(That’s how shameless these New People’s Army are. They know what they are doing. They want to cook us in our oil – well, if people do not think, the government will again be the bad guy for them. People will say: These soldiers and policemen are waging war on the school – but the NPA is waging war on the school.)

The earliest statistics cited here are from 2009 and the latest are from 2018. They are not current at all. Nor does this assessment line up with the AFP's declarations that there are no more active fronts, the NPA is weak and leaderless, and the insurgency is soon to be defeated. So, why put these statistics out there? Could it be fear mongering to persuade Congress to reinstate the DepEd's confidential funds? 

The National Youth Commission has issued a warning about an NPA recruitment video directed towards students. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1214515

The National Youth Commission (NYC) warned on Wednesday young Filipinos not to be persuaded by a new recruitment campaign video produced and being spread by the New People's Army (NPA) since last week.

During a public hearing by the Senate Committee on Public Order and Dangerous Drugs, NYC Chairperson Ronald Cardema showed the video which he cited to be alarming as it targets to recruit 18 years old and below.

"The youth is being targeted by the NPA nowadays. They made the video very trendy. They put jokes about the recruitment to go with the current trend among Filipino youth," Cardema said.

"If we don't talk about it and stand up, show that we don't care about this video and recruitment, we are passing this recruitment to the next generation of Filipinos. They might be recruited without knowing it," he added.

After watching the video, panel chairperson Senator Ronald dela Rosa immediately requested the Anti-Cybercrime Group of the Philippine National Police to trace the source of the video.

"You saw the video? You direct your Anti-Cybercrime Group to trace the origin of the video because this is punishable under Section 10 of the Anti-Terrorism Act," dela Rosa said, suggesting to include sharers of the video who have the intent to recruit.

The motu propio public hearing and investigation by the panel is in response to Senate Resolution No. 863 which seeks to look into the "continuous radicalization and recruitment of students in educational institutions to the local communist terrorist groups" which dela Rosa also filed.

Filipino youth could be recruited into the NPA without even knowing it? That is absurd. And where is this video being shared online? It was shown to the Senate but Cardema does not say where he got it or where it is being spread. We see here Bato's involvement in stirring up the Senate to investigate alleged radicalization of students. Once again it must be asked if this is all fear mongering and stagecraft in order to have DepEd Secretary Duterte's confidential funds reinstated. It would not be surprising if that is the case.