Insurgency: Christmas Day Skirmishes

On Christmas Day the AFP engaged in a firefight with the NPA resulting in ten rebels killed. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1215943

Nine communist New People’s Army (NPA) rebels were killed in a series of skirmishes in the hinterlands of Malaybalay City in Bukidnon province on Christmas Monday. 

The Army 4th Infantry Division (4ID) initial report said the series of encounters occurred in the villages of Can-ayan, Kibalabag, Kulaman, and Mapulo. 

Eight high-powered firearms, assorted ammunition, and personal belongings were recovered by government forces from the encounter sites. 

“The 4ID has sustained its military offensives against the communist terrorist groups on Christmas Day,” the 4ID said in a statement. 

The 4ID said three of its Army Battalions under the 403rd Infantry Brigade joined forces in the series of offensives, which started early morning. 

Three of the nine killed were females as the rebels battled it out against forces from the 8th and 88th Infantry Battalions and the 1st Special Forces Battalion. 

As of posting time, pursuit operations were ongoing in the affected villages

A few days later another body was found bringing the kill count to ten. On Christmas Eve the AFP and NPA clashed in Negros Occidental.

https://mb.com.ph/2023/12/24/army-npa-clash-on-christmas-eve

The military recovered a firearm in an encounter with the New People’s Army (NPA) in Sitio Tayubong, Barangay Puso, La Castellana, Negros Occidental on Christmas Eve.

The Army 62nd Infantry Battalion (IB) occurred after it responded to information from civilians regarding the presence of the NPA in the area.

The firefight ensued for about three minutes that resulted in the recovery of a .45 caliber pistol with live ammunition.

In a statement, the 62nd IB said that it is grateful for the cooperation and unwavering support of civilians in Barangay Puso.

These clashes occurred during a self-imposed two-day Christmas ceasefire by the CPP. The AFP says these clashes prove the CPP cannot be trusted and also expose the weakness of the reamaining rebels. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1215950

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said the Christmas Day encounter in Malaybalay, Bukidnon that resulted in the death of nine New People's Army (NPA) insurgents highlights the communist movement's general weakness and lack of capability.

"It also signals an urgent need for the remaining NPAs to surrender and abandon their futile armed struggle. It is time for them to take advantage of the government's peace programs and spend time with their families during this holiday season, rather than facing the same fate as their fallen comrades," AFP public affairs office chief Col. Xerxes Trinidad said in a statement late Monday.

He added that these losses further eroded the capability of the NPAs to carry out atrocities in Bukidnon and nearby provinces.

"We are thankful for the trust of every Filipino in the AFP for maintaining a peaceful environment. The AFP assures every Filipino that we will remain vigilant during this holiday season as we collectively work towards keeping our communities peaceful and secure," he added.

Nine NPA members were killed during the encounter with the 403rd Infantry Brigade, a field unit of the 4th Infantry Division.

The AFP said government troops initiated a "sustained military offensive against the NPAs" after receiving reports of their presence in the hinterlands of Barangays Can-ayan, Kibalabag, Kulaman and Mapulo.

"During the initial scouring, the operating troops captured eight firearms from the encounter site, with expectations of more to follow as the operation continues. Troops are coordinating with local communities for the identification of the nine deceased NPAs," Trinidad said.

Interestingly the AFP notes that all 13 remaining NPA guerrilla fronts are weakened which means they are no longer able to recruit. 

Aguilar made the pronouncement as he downplayed the current strength of the NPA.

NPA is only left with more than 1,000 members with 13 “weakened” guerrilla fronts, according to Aguilar.

(There were only a few of them in their group, more than a thousand; their guerilla fronts, which used to be almost 90, are now only at 13, and they are weakened at that.)

Previously, Aguilar said the NPA had 1,800 members with 15 weakened guerrilla fronts.

A weakened guerrilla front means it can no longer implement its programs like recruitment and generating resources for the armed struggle as opposed to active guerrilla fronts, according to Aguilar.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1879397/fwd-2-afp-shrugs-off-cpps-ceasefire-declaration

But isn't the public being told repeatedly to beware of NPA recruitment programs? Here we are told by the AFP that they are weakend and unable to recruit. What is the real story? 

According to the AFP there are 1,500 NPA fighters are left.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1879779/npa-down-to-around-1500-fighters-afp

The Maoist New People’s Army (NPA) is now down to more or less 1,500 fighters, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesperson Col. Medel Aguilar said on Tuesday.

(The strength of the NPA has weakened, more or less, they have 1,500 members left.)

Last July, Aguilar said that the NPA had around 1,800 fighters.

Aguilar said the current strength of the NPA meant that they could no longer generally stage tactical offensives or attacks against government forces.

(So, if we notice that while they are still capable of mounting terror actions, we could see that generally, they could not conduct tactical offensives.)

(Their central committee has no control, as far as we know, they are weak and disorganized.)

(We were surprised about their ceasefire declaration because we don’t take notice of their national leadership because, admittedly, they no longer have leadership.)

That is a very interesting number because in November, 2023 the AFP claimed there were 1,400 NPA fighters left.

Malaya supported Remulla’s statement. “The communist insurgency in our country is already ending with only one remaining active guerrilla front of the New People’s Army with 1,400 armed troops left. We are winning the war against the communist-terrorist groups,” he claimed.

https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2023/11/insurgency-insurgnecy-cleared-villages.html

Even if the NPA has no leadership someone must still be in control as the CPP has issued a statement refuting these allegations of weakness. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1879860/cpp-refutes-afps-report-of-declining-npa-numbers

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) scoffed at the latest report by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) on the allegedly dwindling strength and numbers of the New People’s Army (NPA) rebels.

“The AFP keeps on saying that the NPA is diminishing, but they can’t wipe them out,” Marco Valbuena, CPP spokesman, said in an online interview Tuesday afternoon (Dec. 26).

He added, “They have a gunpowder mindset. The AFP thinks they can eliminate the NPA solely through their bombs and cannons, and by killing and intimidating the masses.”

Valbuena said the AFP has been making the same claims for years “they sound like a broken record.”

“The CPP is not just one or a few people. As the CPP stated its task goes beyond the lifetime of any one person, and way beyond the capacity of a few people to perform,” Valbuena argued.

In fact top NPA leaders were identified among the dead in Bukidnon. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1880758/top-npa-leadersamong-those-slainin-bukidnon-clash

Two leaders of the communist New People’s Army (NPA) and their daughter were among those killed in the Christmas Day operation launched by the military against rebels in the hinterlands of Malaybalay City in Bukidnon province.

The Army’s 4th Infantry Division on Thursday said they were able to identify seven of the 10 fatalities, based on profiles they had of the suspected rebels and with the help of rebel returnees who now work with the military’s counterinsurgency effort.

Among the seven, Beverly Sinunta, alias “Ayang,” was identified to have served as the secretary of the NPA’s subregional command (SRC) 2 which operates in Bukidnon while her husband, Alfredo Banawan, alias “Alab,” served as the deputy secretary, according to Lt. Col. Anthony Bacus, commanding officer of the Army’s 8th Infantry Battalion.

The SRC 2 is under the NPA’s North-Central Mindanao Regional Committee.

That means there NPA is not without leadershipr. Likewise despite saying the NPA is incapable of carrying out tactical offensives the AFP is on guard for retaliatory attacks. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1879820/army-on-guard-for-possible-npa-retaliation-after-10-killed-rebels-in-bukidnon-encounter

The Philippine Army is on guard for possible retaliation by the Maoist New People’s Army after the killing of ten alleged rebels during an encounter in Bukidnon.

The Army’s 4th Infantry Division (4ID) said 10 NPA fighters were killed in the Malaybalay City encounter on Monday, Dec. 25.

“We are prepared [for retaliations],” said Major General Jose Maria Cuerpo in a press briefing in 4ID headquarters in Cagayan de Oro City.

“My instruction to brigade commanders and combat units is to always be vigilant,” Cuerpo said. “Even if we are celebrating Christmas season this month doesn’t mean we have to lower our guards.”

Retaliation implies both organization and leadership. 

It seems the AFP is still caught up in contradictions. They warn about recruitment yet the NPA is weakened to the point where recruitment is not possible. They say the NPA is leaderless and cannot carry out tactical offensives yet warn against retaliatory attacks. They claim there are "more or less 1,500" NPA left while a month previous they claimed there were only 1,400 left.

In October the AFP claimed the insurgency would end this year. 

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/20/23/defense-official-says-insurgency-in-ph-to-end-this-year

Yet here we are another year gone and another promise to end the insurgency failed. Surely it will end next year. Right?