Insurgency: Reds' Leadership Vacuum

The AFP says the NPA is leaderless yet another top NPA leader has died fighting the AFP.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1216496

A high-ranking leader of the New People’s Army (NPA) died in a clash between soldiers and rebels in an upland village of Borongan City in Eastern Samar on Saturday.

The Philippine Army identified the slain as Martin Colima (alias Moki), secretary of the sub-regional committee (SRC) Sesame of the NPA’s Eastern Visayas regional party committee.

The military said in a statement late Saturday that Colima died during a gun battle between soldiers and a band of 10 rebels around noon on Saturday in the vicinity of remote Barangay San Gabriel.

Lt. Col. Allan Tria, commander of the Army’s 78th Infantry Battalion, said troops were in the village in response to repeated reports of civilians regarding the presence of the NPA in the area, conducting extortion activities and finding chances to attack members of the Citizens Armed Force Geographical Unit and former rebels.

“Details of their locations, movements, and activities revealed by the civilians provided our patrolling troops a chance to track their location, which resulted in an encounter that killed Colima. Our soldiers also recovered one caliber. 45 pistol and seven backpacks in the encounter site,” Tria said.

Colima, according to the military, is the mastermind and one of the perpetrators of the ambush incident along a major highway in Libuton village, Borongan City on Dec. 13, 2019.

A policeman and three civilians were killed while 12 other civilians, including three minors, were wounded.

Brig. Gen. Noel Vestuir, commander of the Army’s 802nd Infantry Brigade, is saddened by the death of “another fellow Filipino” and urged Colima’s family and relatives to give him a decent burial.

“With the death of the top NPA leader in our area of responsibility, it is very imminent that their fighters under SRC Sesame will lose direction, be demoralized, and be incapable of protracted fighting for a lost cause and incorrect communist ideology,” Vestuir said.

Naturally the death of this hit-ranking NPA leader means their is a vacuum of leadership and the demise of the rebellion is imminent. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1216520

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) on Monday said the death of ranking New People's Army (NPA) official Martin Colima during a clash with government troops in Borongan City, Eastern Samar will further highlight the growing leadership crisis in the insurgency movement.

"The death of communist terrorist group (CTG) leader Martin Colima in an encounter in Borongan City, Eastern Samar on January 6 exacerbates the leadership vacuum in the CTG," AFP public affairs office chief Col. Xerxes Trinidad said in a message to the Philippine News Agency.

Colima, also known as "Moki", is reportedly the Secretary of the Sub-Regional Committee Sesame of the NPA's Eastern Visayas Regional Party Committee.

The NPA leader was killed following an encounter with soldiers at the remote area of Barangay San Gabriel, Borongan City.

"This (Colima's death) also further erodes their capability to plan and execute atrocities in the province and sends a strong signal to their members to surrender," Trinidad said.

Meanwhile, AFP spokesperson Col. Medel Aguilar said the neutralization of ranking NPA leaders like Colima signals the end of the NPA.

"It is leading to that," he added.

Torres said the NTF-ELCAC, through the cohesive leadership of President R. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the NPA scourge in the country will be totally eliminated.

He also expressed hope strongly that all the weakened guerrilla fronts will be dismantled within this year.

The AFP always proclaims the death of the NPA after the death of every top leader claiming they can no longer plan and execute tactics because they have no leaders. Then they kill another leader during a clash and repeat the same message. Funny that the NTF-ELCAC is hoping all guerrilla fronts will be dismantled by the end of the year but it's also typical. The death of the NPA by year's end has been predicted every year for decades. 

Likewise the death of the Islamic insurgency has been touted as of late but analysis of the situation says there could be a revival. 

https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/the-islamic-states-high-stakes-war-in-the-philippines

Pro-Islamic State groups have weathered months of counterterrorism operations across the southern Philippines that have killed top leaders and seemingly hollowed out their ranks. Yet the attacks continue.

On December 3, the bombing of a Catholic Mass in Marawi City, which killed four and injured dozens, was claimed by the Islamic State as the work of its East Asia province. In the days since the attack, local pro-Islamic State groups have claimed responsibility for incidents across the Bangsamoro autonomous region (BARMM).

These are not the death spasms of pro-Islamic State groups in the Philippines but a last-ditch effort to collapse the Bangsamoro peace process before the region’s first elections in 2025. If war returns to Mindanao, it will have dire consequences for Manila’s plans to re-posture its armed forces for territorial defense and what contributions it makes to recently beefed-up security agreements with the United States, Japan, and Australia.

Failure to bring a lasting peace to the Bangsamoro region will trigger a cascading effect that will leave the Philippines torn between simultaneous domestic and foreign threats. 

The Islamic State East Asia (ISEA) is really an array of loosely connected groups, generally distinguished by geographic and ethnolinguistic differences, scattered across the Bangsamoro region. It’s been a tough year for them. 

Despite these hardships, pro-Islamic State groups have sustained their operations buoyed by the knowledge that an historic opportunity lies before them. 

ISEA is engaged in a high stakes struggle to derail the Bangsamoro peace process. Two recent trends are particularly worrying. First, the uptick in violent incidents linked to pro-Islamic State groups since the Marawi City bombing suggests that ISEA’s factions may be coordinating in a bid to distract and destabilize the security response. 

Second, a local pro-Islamic State media unit, only recently emerged, has become a hub for propaganda efforts. After the Marawi attack, it released a photo series, including of the improvised explosive device that was detonated at MSU, and claimed that “Ansar khilafah Philippines Mujihadeen” were responsible. The media group has since released photos showing battles between Dawlah Islamiyah and MILF forces, “shura council” messages from Ansar al-Khilafah Philippines, a video showing the beheading of an accused spy, and a photo series on life inside the Dawlah group.

Given the hits ISEA has suffered to its leadership, resources, and general ranks over the last year, it may seem absurd that it is attempting a resurgence. However, in the ruthless calculations of guerrilla warfare, the heavy losses sustained in recent months are entirely acceptable, indeed welcomed, if strategic objectives are being met and a steady stream of recruits are refilling the ranks. 

The Islamic State understands that its East Asia province has a unique opportunity to be a major spoiler of local, national, and regional stability. On December 7, the Islamic State devoted the editorial of its weekly an-Naba to the Marawi City bombing, offering historical context for the attack, and calling on Muslims to support by immigrating and waging jihad. The article implored its readers to appreciate what is on the line: “Strategically, the Philippines is not just an island located in the far east of the world; rather, it is an area of the global conflict that is still drawing closer day after day between the tyrants of China and America.” It goes on to declare that, “the presence of the mujahideen there is… a foothold for Muslims to confront the projects of the tyrants.”

Why does this kind of analysis always originate from outside observers and never from the AFP or the local media? Is no one paying attention? Why did no media report on the “Ansar khilafah Philippines Mujihadeen” after the bombing in December? 

In the midst of AFP declarations of victory the specter of ISIS grows and the NPA continues to wreak havoc. 

https://visayandailystar.com/army-slams-npa-for-northern-negros-killing-spree/

The Army’s 79th Infantry Battalion denounced remnants of the New People’s Army for their killing spree in northern Negros, where they shamelessly bragged of the taking of lives of innocent civilians in the past several months.

In separate statements, the NPA Roselyn Jean Pelle Command recently owned up to the killing of Juvinie Sarona and Eduardo Continedo Baynosa in Toboso, Negros Occidental.

Lt. Col. Arnel Calaoagan, 79IB commander, said “this audacious admission, devoid of any remorse, lays bare their ruthless nature and alarming disregard to human life.”

The CPP-NPA-NDF, Calaoagan added, has demonstrated the extent of their ruthlessness, not just towards those they label as “enemies,” but even towards their own members.

The CPP-NPA often justify their actions by labeling their victims as criminals, traitors, or assets of the military. However, these allegations are often baseless and serve only as a cover up to mask the brutality of their actions, he further said.

How the NPA is able to commit such atrocities absent any leadership has not been explained. 

The NTF-ELCAC is urging the remains rebels to surrender and start new lives at the beginning of this new year. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1216257

The National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) on Wednesday called on all remaining New People's Army (NPA) rebels to surrender and start new lives for the new year.

"The peace process will not deter the NTF-ELCAC from implementing its mandated tasks to liberate all communities affected by local communist armed conflict," it added in a post on its Facebook page.

It also urged these rebels to immediately renounce violence, lay down their arms and surrender peacefully to become law-abiding citizens who can do their part in nation building.

The NTF-ELCAC said it will further intensify efforts in bringing the government closer to the "geographically-isolated and disadvantaged areas" by bringing in the Barangay Development Program, Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program, and sustainable livelihood projects to former rebels who peacefully surrendered, among others.

"The NTF-ELCAC will also continue to innovate our approaches to Local Peace Engagement in the pursuit of genuine peace in the localities," it added.

When it comes to local peace initiatives the Army has reiterated that local barangay officials play a crucial part in the fight against the insurgency. Failure to do so could mean a resurgence of NPA activity. 

https://mb.com.ph/2024/1/9/army-cites-role-of-barangay-officials-in-anti-insurgency-campaign

The Philippine Army reminded barangay officials of their vital role in the government’s sustainment effort which it said is the hardest part of fighting insurgency in the country.

Major Gen. Michele Anayron Jr., commander of the 403rd Brigade, said there is a possibility that the number of New People’s Army (NPA) rebels will increase if the local government, barangay, and government agencies are unable to sustain the areas that have been cleared by the military of communist influence.

“Because they (referring to the NPA) did not stop in recruiting, they did not stop in recovering the area,” Anayron said in a press conference at the Police Regional Office-Northern Mindanao on Monday, January 8, where the Area Police Command-Eastern Mindanao presented six firearms and 38 magazines they recovered in Barangay San Rafael, Talakag, Bukidnon, on January 6.

Anayron made the remark following questions they received about the number of NPA members in a certain area provided by the military which accordingly might not translate to the communist rebels’ actual strength.

A situation was cited by the 403rd Brigade commander where the NPA’s strength in the eastern part of Misamis Oriental province had ten to 12 members from 2005 to 2007 but they ballooned to over 100 in 2010 because addressing the root cause of insurgency in the areas was not sustained.

Finally someone has asked the question if AFP estimates reflect "the communist rebels’ actual strength." The answer to that, as I have shown many times, is always no. They are guessing and those guesses fluctuate sometimes wildly. It is better to assume their strength rather than their weakness.