Wednesday, October 11, 2017

36 Homicides Per Day

Time for a flashback with Sen. Cayetano

September 2016:

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/19/16/cayetano-ph-becoming-more-like-singapore
September 2017:
https://www.rappler.com/nation/181553-cayetano-public-safety-philippines-safe-singapore
Sen. Cayetano, if you do not know, is an ardent supporter and defender of the Duterte administration. He is also a retard. Quite possibly the biggest retard in the Senate.  But the competition is close.



What makes him, and others like him, a retard is that his lack of honesty about the reality of the situation in the Philippines is holding the Philippines back from solving its problems. Problems must first be addressed before they can be solved. What is the situation in the Philippines at the moment?  Not good.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/627563/only-2-5-of-homicide-cases-are-drug-related-says-pnp/story/
Only 2.5 percent of the 15,911 homicide cases in the country are drug-related, the Philippine National Police said Thursday, amid criticisms that many of the killings are related to the government’s campaign against illegal drugs. 
Senior Superintendent Benjamin Adelio Castillo, chief of the Directorate for Investigation and Detective Management's Case Monitoring Division, said that of the 15,911 homicide cases they recorded from July 1, 2016 to September 15, 2017, a total of 6,129 have already been resolved while 9,782 are still under investigation.
Of the 6,129 "resolved" cases, 3,475 are considered solved with the arrest of the suspect while 2,654 are cleared with suspect already identified. 
Of the solved cases, 120 (or only 0.75 percent of 15,911) are drug-related, the PNP said.
Of the cleared cases, 278 (or only 1.74 percent of 15,911) are drug-related. 
Based on the PNP's records, 1,685 homicides are the result of heated arguments or misunderstandings; 1,273 are due to personal grudges; 84 are considered atrocities by threat groups; 69 are due to land disputes; and three are activist or media killings.
This is plain crazy. July 1, 2016 to September 15, 2017 is 442 days. 15,911 homicides in this timeframe equates to 36 homicides EVERY SINGLE DAY!!

This is not acceptable at all.  For all the talk about the Philippines being not so unlike Singapore or able to adopt a Singapore model they sure aren't doing a good job.
http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/5-killings-in-2-weeks-police-say-offenders-will-face-the-full-brunt-of-the
In the wake of the recent spate of killings, Deputy Commissioner of Police for investigations and intelligence Tan Chye Hee has said the police will spare no effort to trace the offenders. He added that the police are committed to keeping Singapore safe and offenders will "face the full brunt of the law".
Five murders in the space of two weeks in Singapore is a crimewave!  Take a look at some statistics for murder in Singapore between 2003 - 2014.
https://knoema.com/atlas/Singapore/topics/Crime-Statistics/Homicides/Homicides
225 murders in 11 years which is 4,015 days which is .05 murders a day. That's an average of 20 murders a year.

Compare that to the same time for the Philippines.
https://knoema.com/atlas/Philippines/topics/Crime-Statistics/Homicides/Homicides
88,301 murders in 11 years which is 4,015 days which is 22 murders a day! That's an average of 8,027 murders a year! The reason the PNP is giving the public these statistics that 15,911 murders occurred in 14.5 months and only 2.5% were drug related is to relieve the fears of the public that many of the killings are related to the government’s campaign against illegal drugs. Is the public supposed to be overjoyed at these numbers??  
Carlos said the homicide cases they presented do not include those killed in police operations. 
“Ito po ay krimen nagaganap sa lansangan,” he said. 
According to the PNP spokesperson, 3,850 drug suspects died in police operations in the same period of July 1, 2016 to September 15, 2017.
A combined total of 19,761 people dead in police operations and homicides.


  1. Activist/Media Killing  - 3
  2. Heated Argument/Misunderstanding - 1,685
  3. Personal Grudge - 1,273
  4. Land Dispute - 69
  5. Love Triangle - 44
  6. Family Dispute/Rido - 39
  7. Work Related 13
  8. Atrocities by Threat Group - 84
  9. Political - 3
  10. Business Rivalry - 2
  11. Revenge - 62
  12. Jealousy - 49
  13. Personal gain - 121
  14. Hatred - 15
  15. Duel - 21
  16. Road Rage - 7
  17. Unpaid Debt - 7
  18. Lust - 14
  19. Jail Break -1
  20. Indiscriminate Firing/Stray Bullet - 24
  21. Self Defence - 40
  22. Negligence - 18
It's dangerous out there. 

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/936805/dr-amalai-senada-gutierrez-shot-dead-cotabato-city

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/936742/breaking-crime-mandaluyong-godofredo-goody-tolentino
In Singapore one does not have to worry about being shot and killed by masked gunmen riding up on a motorcycle. 

9,782 homicides out of 15,911 remain unsolved.  That's 61%.


Only 22% or 3,475 cases have been solved which means that a suspect has been arrested. 17% or 2,654 cases have been cleared which means they have a suspect but have not arrested him yet. So why haven't these known suspects been arrested? What's the problem?

With impunity high in the Philippines it is likely that killers known and unknown will never be brought to justice. Mocha Uson's father was murdered in 2002 and 15 years later his killers have still not been brought to justice.

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/22/17/philippines-has-worst-impunity-in-the-world-study
People make a nation and a nation full of people who will kill over heated arguments and misunderstandings will never become as prosperous as Singapore.  Much blame is to be laid on the shoulders of the PNP and NBI who lack resources and impetus to track down murderers but not all of the blame falls on their shoulders. Filipinos are also to blame. Nobody forces anyone to commit murder.

But perhaps there is nothing to worry about really since murder cases have dropped. 

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/10/17/murder-cases-drop-in-2017-says-pnp
Citing reported gains of its "intensified campaign" against crime, illegal drugs and corruption, the PNP said murder cases dropped 7.98% year on year, comparing the first eight months of 2016 and 2017. 
Wow a whopping 7.98% drop in murder in one year.  Maybe it will keep dropping and the Philippines will be practically murder free just like Iceland or Singapore.  Before you get too optimistic let me show you the eleven year trend from 2003 - 2014 again.

Since this table only goes to 2014 here is the data for 2015.

http://www.pnp.gov.ph/images/publications/PNPAnnualReport2015_opt_opt.pdf

9,643 cases of murder and 997 cases of cattle rustling.  It's literally like the wild west here in the Philippines.


Here are some statistics for 2016.

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/19/16/pnp-crime-rate-down-but-murder-rate-up
The overall index crime rate went down but the murder rate soared during the first 5 months of the administration of President Rodrigo Duterte, according to latest figures from the Philippine National Police (PNP). 
The Presidential Communications Office, in a press release, said PNP figures showed the index crime volume declining to 55,391 from July-November this year, compared to 81,064 from July-November 2015, or a drop of 31.67 percent. 
Communications Secretary Martin Andanar claimed that this shows that the Philippines "is now a safer place". 
The same PNP data, however, shows that murder cases went up 51.14 percent, from 3,950 in 2015 to 5,970 in the same period.
In December the murder trend was on the up. What was the final total for 2016?

http://www.pnp.gov.ph/images/Downloads/Annual-Report-2016-FINAL-COPY.pdf

An astounding 11,385 murders in 2016. 31 murders a day in 2016. 1,742 more murders than in 2015. Cattle rustling is down though. By 553 instances.

These numbers are horrendous. It's an absolute bloodbath here in the Philippines. And these calculations have not included homicide because, strictly speaking, homicide is not necessarily murder.  Accidents happen all the time. Let's end this article where we began.  With Sen. Cayetano.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/05/09/1698283/pnp-figures-give-credence-cayetano-claim-killings
There were an average of 12,357 murder and homicide cases in the Philippines from 2011 to 2016, giving credence to Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano's claim in Geneva that the number of killings under the Duterte administration are not unusually high. 
On Monday, Cayetano told members of the UN Human Rights Council that "killings in the Philippines in the previous administrations varied from a low of 11,000 to a high of 16,000" and that recent numbers—10,165 murders and homicides between July 2016 and March 2017, according to the police—are within the average. 
"In 2013, the highest was 16,000. The lowest in 2012," he has been quoted as saying. 
PNP data lists 9,072 murders and 6,409 homicides in 2013, a total of 15,481 cases. That year had the most cases of killings, while 2014 had the fewest cases—5,004 murders and 4,091 homicides, according to the PNP-Directorate for Investigation and Detective Management—with 9,095. 
In March, Cayetano claimed in a radio interview that there had been around 70,000 killings during the administration of President Benigno Aquino III, an erstwhile ally under whose administration slate the senator ran for reelection in 2013. 
"There are extrajudicial killings but these are not state-sponsored. There have been 10,000 to 14,000 every year or about 70,000 during the entire Aquino administration," he said then. 
According to data released on the PNP website, there were 8,489 murders and 3,375 homicides in 2011 or a total of 11,864. In 2012, there were 8,484 murders and 3,022 homicide cases, or 11,506 killings. 
The number of killings went up in 2013 and dropped the year after that. There were 12,478 killings in 2015—9,643 murders and 2,835. 
The next year, 2016, was bloodier still with 11,385 murders and 2,337 homicides or 13,722 killings in all.
As Tom Jones said, "It's not unusual to be murdered by anyone."

That Sen. Cayetano can cite these numbers in defence of the rise in murder under the Duterte administration saying with a straight face they are not unusual is proof positive that the Philippines is nowhere near to being like Singapore. An average of 12,357 murder and homicide cases from 2011 to 2016 in the Philippines while Singapore, sticking with the statistics previously posted, from 2011 - 2014 had an average of 14.5 murders a year.  No doubt this did not change significantly in 2015 or 2016.  

Now the PNP wants us to believe that a 7.98% reduction in the murder rate between January and August, a mere 554 less cases, is to be celebrated because it is proof that peace and order has improved since they began waging a stringent campaign against criminality. What a ridiculous notion. Sure any drop in crime is a good thing but a drop in the murder rate is not the trend. Between 2012 and 2017 the murder rate has steadily risen. Any significant drop, say 15 - 20% would be a miracle and therefore unlikely to happen.

What the Philippines needs to do is stop worrying about Europe and Singapore and focus on it's very own problems. Federalism will neither stop the corruption in government nor lower the murder rate.  People make up governments and nations. Did Lee Kuan Yew carry a pistol and challenge his political opponents to duels like Duterte has? The Philippines will never be like Singapore no matter what system of government it has unless the character of the people changes. Change yourself and then change the nation.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Retards in the Government 7

More stupid headlines. Duterte's ratings are down. In response Bato says the PNP is going to improve their performance. This is a tacit admission that the PNP is not doing a good job.  And, like a couple on the verge of splitting, any call for improvement and change is too little too late.  The damage has been done. And how about Larry Gadon calling for Duterte to be the special prosecutor during the impeachment trial of SC Justice Sereno? Only an absolute idiot would make such a suggestion.  Surprisingly this suggestion has been rejected.


http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/628552/andanar-urges-public-not-to-judge-pcoo-based-on-personalities/story/

Martial Law: Toothless

Duterte made his 6th visit to Marawi at the beginning of the week.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/10/03/1745067/rody-visits-marawi-6th-time
President Duterte yesterday visited Marawi City for the sixth time to witness the unveiling of shelters for the residents displaced by the clashes between government forces and terrorists.  
During the event Duterte assured the beneficiaries of the shelters that the government is pushing for federalism to address the conflict in Mindanao. He also vowed to address the threat posed by communist rebels once the Marawi crisis is over.  
“We have to finish it otherwise the next generation would inherit this (problem),” Duterte said. 
Does Duterte really think that federalism will solve the terrorist problem? Like the Philippines will implement federalism and the communists and ISLAMIC terrorists will suddenly throw down their arms?  Do the people who bombed out the power grid in Cotobato really care about federalism?

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/935377/news-bombing-national-grid-corporation-of-the-philippines-ngcp-north-cotabato-cotabato-maguindanao-carmen
Maguindanao is shaping up to be a real bad area.  Likely the next epicentre of combat after the Battle of Marawi ends.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/936289/maguindanao-locals-join-military-in-clearing-communities-of-improvised-explosives-army-maguindanao-conflict-isis-biff
http://www.philstar.com/nation/2017/10/09/1747032/biff-bandits-leave-behind-improvised-bombs-isis-flag
And the communists are stirring up trouble as well. Will federalism make them exchange their weapons for plowshares? Can the AFP handle a war on so many fronts?

http://www.philstar.com/nation/2017/10/09/1747054/army-says-npa-rampage-northeastern-cagayan
The ISLAMIC terorirsts and the communists don't care what system of government the Philippines implements. They are at war with the Philippines regardless.  They both want a piece of land for themselves. Even the declaration of martial law in Mindanao has left some folks unfazed.  Martial law? Who cares! Especially when there aren't enough troops to enforce it.

https://news.mb.com.ph/2017/10/04/martial-law-toothless-in-sulu/
Civil society organization Save Sulu Movement said martial law in Mindanao has been ineffective in Sulu, even after more than four months since its declaration by President Rodrigo R. Duterte following armed clashes between government forces and Islamic State-inspired Maute Group in Marawi City last May 23. 
He said Duterte might as well “suspend or lift it altogether” if he cannot pull off a complete military takeover, claiming that there are some local police who continuously escort local politicians in Sulu despite order from the National Police Commission (Napolcom) cancelling the politicians power over local police.” 
“Despite the declaration of martial law, despite having Napolcom, cancelling deputation of PNP by local politicians, (there are still) criminal activities or partnership in the province of Sulu, but nothing much has been done.  There was arrest here and there, killing of one or two ASG here, but in its entirety I think we did not achieve the purpose it serves,” he said.
The war in Marawi has dragged on for longer than it should have.  Why?  Duterte thinks the AFP could learn lessons from the Battle of Mosul.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/10/05/1745903/marawi-siege-continues-duterte-tells-troops-study-how-mosul-was-freed
President Rodrigo Duterte Thursday ordered the military to study how the United States-led coalition liberated Mosul and Aleppo from the Islamic State even as he declared that the operations in Marawi are “winding up.” 
Duterte said there might be a need to revisit military doctrines to address the threats posed by terrorism. 
“Eh parang nahihirapan ho tayo dito (It seems that we are having a hard time). We have to revise the doctrines actually because we are facing an enemy that is well entrenched and it is an urban fighting,” the president told Army troops in Fort Bonifacio. 
“It took us this long because the terrain has changed considerably. Maybe you’d want to take a look at seriously how Mosul, Aleppo and the rest of the territories are being taken now and how long it has been for them to do it,” he added.
For the moment let's overlook the fact that Duterte has no idea what he is talking about as evidenced by his reference to Aleppo, the capital of Syria, which was never occupied by ISIS terrorists. Mosul and Marawi are not really comparable. The Battle of Mosul was comprised of a highly skilled and well equipped international coalition of about 108,000 troops versus approximately 12,000 ISIS terrorists in a battle which lasted 9 months. The Battle of Marawi is being fought by approximately 6,000 AFP soldiers plus PNP officers who are both unprepared and not well equipped versus less than 1,000 ISIS terrorists who were allowed to stockpile arms for quite some time before the battle began.  The numbers aren't even close. What's more the preparedness is not even close.  US-trained Iraqi troops were prepared for urban warfare against ISIS.  The AFP was not.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/621815/afp-admits-it-needs-to-upgrade-urban-warfare-training/story/
The AFP can deflect from their unpreparedness and say that the reason the battle is taking so long is because they are wanting save the lives of hostages but that is only half the story. Remember they were going hard at it until the Supreme Court declared martial law constitutional.  It was only then that Duterte gave the order to slow down using the hostages as an excuse. Remember when he told the AFP not to worry about killing civilians, i.e. hostages, because it's a war zone and that kind of thing happens? 

http://news.abs-cbn.com/focus/10/03/17/why-has-the-marawi-crisis-dragged-on-for-months
Col. Romeo Brawner, deputy commander of Joint Task Group Ranao, said Tuesday that the siege dragged on due to difficulties in clearing the conflict zone. 
"The reason why it is taking a bit longer than we expected is because foremost among our objectives is to ensure the safety of our hostages," he said on ANC's "Beyond Politics". 
"While our forces are moving forward, they have to be really cautious so that the hostages will not be caught in the firefight and also so that we’ll be able to clear the IEDs and this will not cause unnecessary casualties on the government side," he added.
This week a goodly number of hostages have been rescued.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/935687/8-terrorists-yield-with-9-hostages-in-marawi

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/935977/govt-troops-rescue-17-more-hostages-in-marawi
So that's 26 hostages rescued and 8 terrorists who have surrendered.  Plus all the other dead terroriists this week means there are significantly less enemy combatants.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/627883/less-than-50-maute-members-left-in-marawi-afp-official/story/
Less than 50 Maute members left?  Good job!  Excellent!  Way to go! But wait a minute. Two months ago there was also less than 50 Maute members left.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/08/14/1729058/afp-maute-fighters-remain-marawi
How can the same amount of enemy combatants still remain after two months? These numbers don't add up.  That's because the AFP does not know how many terrorists are left.  They are guessing.  Are they also guessing about the remaining number of hostages?

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/10/06/1746113/40-hostages-still-inside-marawi-says-afp

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/07/17/military-says-more-hostages-left-in-marawi-than-earlier-count
"There are estimated to be between 40 to 60 hostages. The Maute is [estimated to number around] 38 to 48. Ito po ang revelation sa atin ng mga hostages natin (This is what the hostages revealed)," said Brawner.  
The military had earlier estimated that 20 hostages remain in the hands of terrorists.
Yeah they are guessing. Nothing wrong with guessing but maybe they could keep it to themselves and  tell the media either they do not know or no comment.  If they are concerned about rescuing hostages then the AFP had better put their noses to the ground and rescue them since they remain in immediate danger.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/628717/17-rescued-marawi-hostages-about-to-be-beheaded-afp-chief/story/
These hostages are not only in danger from their MUSLIM captors but also from the AFP which has given shoot to kill orders for anyone seen with a weapon.  Even hostages!
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/936379/marawi-siege-marawi-hostages-romeo-brawner-jr-joint-task-force-ranao
The few days of battle left will no doubt be hard fought as the ISLAMIC terrorists use every tactic they can in a fight to the death.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/628484/maute-fighters-hiding-in-tunnels-as-gov-t-troops-continue-final-push/story/
The military said the remaining members of the militant group have opted to hide in underground tunnels. 
Moreover, the government had yet to retake six hectares of the main battle area, wherein terrorists have planted improvised explosive devices.
Next Sunday is October 15th. Will the AFP meet their self-imposed deadline and have finished the battle by then?  Will the AFP kill every last terrorist or will Maute surrender like their comrades in the Middle East?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/08/world/middleeast/isis-iraq-surrender.html
Will the end of the Battle of Marawi be the end of ISIS in the Philippines?

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-uncovered/isis-recruits-fighters-philippines-instead-syria-n796741
On the contrary there are indications that while ISIS is losing in the Middle East, SEA and particularly the Philippines is quickly becoming the next front in the global war on terror. It could be that Duterte's renewed friendliness with the USA will be the key that begins to unlock the chains of ISLAMIC terrorism which are quickly tightening their grip on the Philippines and the region.