Duterte Capitulates to China's War Threat

Looks like the mystery has been solved as to why Duterte has been so easy on China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/world/asia/philippines-south-china-sea-duterte-war.html

China’s president warned the Philippines that it would go to war if Manila insisted on enforcing an international arbitration decision rejecting China’s claims over disputed areas of the South China Sea, the Philippine president said in a televised speech on Friday. 

In a landmark ruling last July, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, based in The Hague, delivered a sweeping rebuke of China’s behavior in the South China Sea, including the creation of islands that could be used for military purposes, and found that its claim of sovereignty over the waters had no legal basis. However, there is no legal mechanism for enforcing the decision, and Beijing has refused to abide by it. 

In a speech on Friday to the Philippine coast guard, in the southern city of Davao, Mr. Duterte claimed that President Xi Jinping of China had cautioned him against trying to enforce the ruling. Mr. Xi said the two countries could eventually discuss it, “but it cannot be done now,” Mr. Duterte said.Continue reading the main story“We intend to drill oil there, if it’s yours, well, that’s your view, but my view is I can drill the oil, if there is some inside the bowels of the earth, because it is ours,” Mr. Duterte quoted Mr. Xi as telling him.
Mr. Duterte described Mr. Xi’s position as, “We’re friends, we don’t want to quarrel with you,” but “if you force the issue, we’ll go to war.”
Both sides affirmed the importance of “maintaining and promotion of peace and stability, freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea, addressing their territorial and jurisdictional disputes by peaceful means,” the ministry said.
Mr. Duterte has played down the conflict since assuming office last year, taking a much less confrontational stance toward the disputed waters than his predecessor, Benigno S. Aquino III. He has drawn closer to China, in the hopes of attracting more Chinese investment, and has also distanced itself from a traditional ally, the United States.
On Friday, however, he warned that a war with China would “result in massacre” and “destroy everything.”

“We intend to drill oil there, if it’s yours, well, that’s your view, but my view is I can drill the oil, if there is some inside the bowels of the earth, because it is ours,” Mr. Duterte quoted Mr. Xi as telling him. 

Mr. Duterte described Mr. Xi’s position as, “We’re friends, we don’t want to quarrel with you,” but “if you force the issue, we’ll go to war.” 

Both sides affirmed the importance of “maintaining and promotion of peace and stability, freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea, addressing their territorial and jurisdictional disputes by peaceful means,” the ministry said. 

Mr. Duterte has played down the conflict since assuming office last year, taking a much less confrontational stance toward the disputed waters than his predecessor, Benigno S. Aquino III. He has drawn closer to China, in the hopes of attracting more Chinese investment, and has also distanced itself from a traditional ally, the United States. 

On Friday, however, he warned that a war with China would “result in massacre” and “destroy everything.”

No doubt Duterte does not wish to engage China in war.  He has his own battles to fight at home including both the drug war and the on-going decades long war against Muslim and communist terrorists.  The Armed Forces of the Philippines also lack the numbers and the firepower required to face down a well-equipped and well-staffed enemy like China.

But this begs the question why would Duterte offer to send troops to defend Qatar and not use those same troops to stand up for the sovereign land and sea rights of the Philippines.

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/04/18/we-will-die-them-philippines-duterte-offers-deploy-troops-middle-east/

Remember one of Duterte's campaign promises was that he would stand up to China and claim the Spratly  Islands for the Philippines (to whom they already belong) by jet skiing across the ocean to plant a flag in the sand.

From day one of his campaign his lips have been dripping with nationalistic and jingoistic slogans. What is going on here with his capitulation to China? Why does he tell the USA, a long-time ally, goodbye but welcomes China, who threatens the country with war over a few islands, with arms wide open?

One need not send in troops to fight a war.  There is always economic cold war. The easiest way to fight China would be to do it economically and yet Duterte does not even want to do that.

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/business/2017/05/18/china-loans-philippines-raise-fears-542484

THE $6-billion official development assistance (ODA) obtained by the Duterte administration from the Chinese government has raised fears among some, who believe this might turn out to be disadvantageous to the Philippines rather than beneficial.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/05/15/1700181/china-offers-500-m-arms-loan-philippines

The Chinese government has offered a $500-million loan to the Philippines, which can be used to procure defense equipment, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana revealed Sunday. 

On the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, Lorenzana said that the Philippines might procure defense equipment from China. 

This announcement comes after representatives of Chinese arms manufacturer Poly Technologies Inc. paid a courtesy call to President Rodrigo Duterte in Beijing. 

"We are not saying that we will buy from them or we will not buy from them but if we need anything from the Chinese defense industry, we are going to procure using the loan that they are going to offer to us," Lorenzana said. 

Lorenzana noted that the loan from the Chinese government will be on standby as the Philippines will only use it once the military's modernization fund has been used up. 

On Monday, the Philippine government will sign a letter of intent to deal with the Chinese arms company.

6 billion dollars to develop infrastructure?  500 million dollars to purchase arms??  Why would Duterte continue to do business that puts the Philippines in massive debt to China when China is belligerently threatening war if the Philippines drills for oil in it's own territory??  

This is madness!  Or is it?  

You know what they say: "Cui bono?"  Who benefits? So, aside from China, who benefits from these loans? 

Duterte and his cronies.  That's who.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2093566/dutertes-dilapidated-hometown-get-makeover-chinas-belt

A flurry of Chinese-invested projects is poised to turn Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s dilapidated hometown of Davao into a Southeast Asian springboard for Beijing’s grand “Belt and Road Initiative”. 

The projects, ranging from an expressway to port development and railway construction, mark an improvement in Sino-Philippine relations following prolonged tension over competing territorial claims in the South China Sea.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/anderscorr/2017/05/13/new-philippine-debt-of-167-billion-could-balloon-to-452-billion-china-will-benefit/

Dutertenomics, fueled by expensive loans from China, will put the Philippines into virtual debt bondage if allowed to proceed.

Duterte and his influential friends and business associates could each benefit with hundreds of millions of dollars in finders fees, of 2-7%, for such deals. Duterte reportedly sought to fast track some deals, and has publicly mooted the possibility of declaring martial law for a wide range of issues, including drugs, traffic, and the situation on Mindanao. Debt imposed on the public through corruption, fast-tracking or under martial law should be considered odious debt, and not repayable. The only way to stop such unjust debt is for the terms to be entirely transparent to the Philippine public in advance, for full cost-benefit analyses to be done by an independent authority on each deal, and for the Philippine Congress to vote on whether each deal proceeds. Failing that will lead to virtual Philippine debt bondage to China.

So much for Duterte's plan to end corruption in the Philippines.  It's the same system that's been going on since the beginning: make and fast-track unscrupulous financial deals and skim off the top.

If Duterte's nationalism meant any thing he would not be doing business with China at all. Placing the Philippines "into virtual debt bondage" with China will not help the country one bit.  It won't give people jobs and it won't transform the country into a middle level economy.

Why not just take the grants the EU offered?  Despite allegations of EJK's they are still offered interest free and without conditions to the Philippines.

http://www.rappler.com/nation/170183-philippines-refuses-european-union-grants

The European Union on Wednesday evening, May 17, confirmed that the Philippines has decided to no longer accept new EU grants, pegged at around 250 million euros or P13.85 billion. 

"The Philippine government has informed us that they no longer accept new EU grants," the EU delegation to the Philippines said when sought by Rappler for confirmation Wednesday. 

Jessen stressed that the EU was not "imposing" human rights conditions on the Philippines, and it was the Philippines that signed 27 labor and human rights conventions under the United Nations system.  

The EU, in any case, is one of the Philippines' biggest donors.

That's  a lot of money to give up.  So why do it?  What's the official explanation?

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/05/18/ph-only-refusing-eu-aid-that-affects-internal-affairs.html

The Philippines will only reject aid from the European Union (EU) that meddles with the country's internal affairs, Presidential Spokesperson Ernesto Abella said Thursday.  

"When (the aid) begins to impose certain conditionalities that will interfere with the way we handle things, then we consider that objectionable," Abella said in a Malacañang press briefing. 

His statement comes after the European Delegation to the Philippines confirmed that the Philippines will be refusing aid from the EU.  

"They have conditions, but there are certain items, for example, that we cannot totally accept," Abella said. 

These conditions involve grants that entail a review of the Philippines' adherence to the rule of law, officials said.

But the EU isn't imposing any conditions: "Jessen stressed that the EU was not "imposing" human rights conditions on the Philippines."

Abella added that the move is part of the Duterte administration's "independent foreign policy."

If that was true then Duterte would not be so casually placing the Philippines into "virtual debt bondage" to China.

But  finally we hear from a man who really knows Duterte and how childish he can be.

Before the Palace briefing, National Economic and Development Authority head Ernesto Pernia dismissed the decision – which he said was made before a Philippine delegation went to the United Nations in Geneva on May 8 to defend the country's human rights record – as a mere response to criticism. 

"We have to parse this carefully because our President has a style of doing something and then taking it back later," Pernia said Thursday.  

"He is very sensitive and he usually takes it back later on," he added, speaking to reporters after a briefing on the Philippine economic growth figures for the first quarter of 2017.

If only Duterte would take back his decision to work with China and repudiate all ties with China until they cease threatening war because of the Philippines actions in the Spratly Islands which is it's own sovereign territory.