The Case For A Senate Investigation Into Prior Knowledge of the Marawi Attack

"A single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic" is a quote attributed to Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.  We see the truth of these words played out before our eyes in the media as the drug war and the battle in Marawi both rage on. Hundreds have died in Marawi and thousands have died in the drug war but only one death, that of Kian de los Santos, is causing the public any grief. 

So great has been the public outcry that a Senate investigation has been called for and will convene only a week after Kian's death.

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/08/21/senate-seeks-probe-on-17-year-old-boy-killing.html

Why so soon? Why not let the PNP and NBI handle the investigation before the Senate meddles?  What is the point?  To pacify the public outrage over what appear to be police abuses? To score political brownie points?

The real travesty here is that the Senate has moved so fast to investigate the death of a single boy while they have let the Duterte administration off the hook for their handling of the Marawi siege. Statements made by Calida, Lorenzada, and Duterte all warrant a Senate investigation into what really happened in the days leading up to the siege of Marawi. The public deserves to know the truth.

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cagayan-de-oro/local-news/2017/06/14/government-says-it-learned-marawi-siege-plans-advance-547391

Solicitor General Jose Calida said in a report that the government received intelligence information at least five days before the terrorists prematurely launched their bloody assault on Marawi City on May 23 after government forces raided the hideout of terrorist leaders led by Isnilon Hapilon.   

"Specifically, on 18 May 2017, intelligence reports revealed that the Isis (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria)-inspired local rebel groups were planning to occupy Marawi city, and to raise the Isis flag at the provincial capitol," Calida said in a report to the Supreme Court, using an acronym for the Islamic State group.   

"The said attack would have served as the precursor for other rebel groups to stage their own uprisings across Mindanao in a bid to simultaneously establish a wilayah in the region," Calida said, referring to the southern Philippine region and the Islamic State province the terrorists aimed to create there.   

Asked why the government failed to stop the Marawi siege despite its advance knowledge of the plot, Presidential spokesman Ernesto Abella said the intelligence information was still being vetted, but the military nevertheless planned a raid on the hideout of Hapilon and other terrorists behind the plot.   

"From our point of view, we were able to stop something that could have been much, much bigger," Abella told a news conference.   

Abella was also asked why top security officials led by Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana and National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. joined Duterte in a trip to Russia around the time the government received information about the planned Marawi attack.   

"They were all on top of the situation. They were actually monitoring everything," Abella said.   

When the military managed to verify some of the details of the plot, it staged the raid on Hapilon's hideout, military spokesman Brigade General Restituto Padilla said. He acknowledged, however, that the military was unaware of the number of armed fighters the plotters could muster.

These answers taken at face value are good enough to pacify the general public but on closer examination they are unsatisfactory and leave a lot of questions unanswered. The government has men all throughout Mindanao monitoring the situation and it is not credible that they only received information 5 days beforehand. ISIS has been a known threat in the area since 2015. For almost two years now ISIS has been building up a presence in the area. The stated goal of ISIS is to establish a wilayah, Islamic State, in the region. It is impossible that the government did not know about this goal since they knew about the presence of ISIS in Mindanao and had publicly declared they were working with the Australians to combat ISIS. Maute would have been planning this attack since December 2016 after their failed siege of Butig in November. They raised the flag of ISIS during that siege.

Did the AFP really not know what the Maute Group was doing for six months? Did the AFP really not know that Maute was planning on establishing a wilayah starting with Marawi? Even after what happened in Butig? And even after Duterte egged them on to burn Marawi?

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/612582/duterte-revealed-maute-s-plan-to-burn-marawi-in-december-speech/story/ 

Such assertions are not credible and deserve to be investigated by the Senate.

Duterte admitted that the government knew all about the weapons flowing into Marawi and did nothing about it.

Duterte said the government was aware that firearms were being stockpiled in Mindanao but took it for granted because of the peace talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).  

“We have adopted a very soft policy towards the rebels and this came about because they were bringing firearms. Since we are thinking of getting peace with the MNLF and MILF. The game there involves firearms. We took it for granted. We just allowed it to happen because we never knew until that time who was really the enemy,” Duterte told the troops in Butuan City. 

“When they see firearms and they were told that it’s for MILF or MNLF, the standing order was maybe we can talk to our brothers so there will be no trouble (but) it turned out that the Maute were bringing the firearms surreptitiously and we did not know how much ammunition and firearms were stockpiled, and besides it was not a failure of intelligence,” he added. 

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/06/18/1711130/no-failure-intelligence-marawi

Duterte explained the bandits, who seemed to have been prepared in launching attacks in Marawi City, may have taken advantage on the government’s soft-leaning approach to other Moro groups, such as Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).    

“Now, it appeared that Maute [members] were bringing the firearms surreptitiously and we were unable to determine how many ammunitions and guns they have,” Duterte said.  

“It was not a failure of intelligence because if they [government forces] see armed men claiming to be MI[LF], MN[LF], the standing order is not to touch them because it might have been resolved through peace negotiations.” 

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/manila/local-news/2017/06/18/duterte-no-failure-intelligence-marawi-siege-548013

The Senate must inquire about the "very soft policy towards the rebels" which the Duterte administration had adopted. Why was this an excuse to let arms flow into the city? How does the government entering into peace negotiations with terrorist groups justify allowing those groups to stock up on firearms? What kind of order is "if they [government forces] see armed men claiming to be MI[LF], MN[LF], the standing order is not to touch them because it might have been resolved through peace negotiations?" Who gave it and why?  This order is what led to allowing the arms to pass in freely and for Maute to stockpile them. How was the AFP supposed to distinguish between who was MILF, MNLF, and Maute? 

And it's not just the government forces on the ground who were a problem.  There were other men in the area gathering intelligence for their own ends. Specifically Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia all warned the Philippine government about ISIS building up in the area but the Philippines ignored their reports.  Why?

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/07/27/1722033/dnd-admits-lack-intel-validation-marawi-siege

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana admitted that there was a lack of validation on the government side regarding intelligence reports on the siege in Marawi City. 

Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore have earlier warned the Philippines of the possible presence of ISIS-inspired local terror groups in the country, according to a report from UNTV. 

Lorenzana said that the incident in Marawi City would serve as a lesson for the Department of National Defense and the military to validate intelligence reports. 

"Maybe what we can do in the future is restudy what we are doing [in the] intelligence sector... so that we can be better prepared if something like this happens again," Lorenzana said. 

The Defense chief noted that the forces on the ground monitoring Marawi failed to identify unfamiliar faces entering the city.

Due to the lack of validation of such reports, the Maute group was able to prepare its attack on the city and were able to bring in high-powered firearms. 

Lorenzana, however, said that the government is more focused on fighting against the Maute-ISIS group to start the rehabilitation in Marawi. 

"The time of blaming somebody or pointing somebody is past that, ito na nga nangyari. We can no longer bring back the lives of those 110 people killed, 900 wounded," Lorenzana said.

Whose job was it to validate these reports and why weren't they validated? Lorenzana says that AFP forces failed to identify unfamiliar faces but Duterte says they were not to touch anyone claiming to be MILF or MNLF.  Does the AFP have a facebook for these groups that they can match up names and faces to determine who is MNLF and MILF and who is not? If they had been able to identify unfamiliar faces what was the protocol? 

Reports of ISIS in Mindanao stem all the way back to December 2015.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-11/australia-philippines-vow-cooperation-against-islamic-state/7020372 

At least five Islamist militant groups in the southern Philippines have pledged allegiance to IS, a militant group that has taken control of swathes of Iraq and Syria.  

Manila tightened its surveillance over suspected militants, after eight Filipino men believed to be IS sympathisers were killed by security forces on Mindanao island.   

Around 1,000 residents in Mindanao have reportedly allied themselves with the Islamist extremist group.  

"We always consider the potential threat posed by radicalised Filipinos supporting the ISIS," said a senior Philippine police official, who asked not to be identified. 

"We are concerned with the risk of ISIS elements travelling to the country to promote violent extremism and, worse, to seek haven or use the country as a transit point in going to conflict zones.

The Philippines government has known since 2015 that ISIS was a growing threat in the region. Any claim that there was no intelligence or a lack of intelligence regarding ISIS in Mindanao is a lie.  The question that the Senate needs to ask is, "Why was nothing done?"

The death of Kian is tragic.  So are the deaths of the others killed by the PNP during drug raids.  So are the deaths of 129 (so far) AFP soldiers fighting in Marawi along with 45 (so far) civilians. So is the displacement of thousands of Marawi residents.  So is the destruction of the city of Marawi. And all of that was preventable if the Duterte administration had not adopted a soft policy towards terrorists which allowed the weapons to flow into Marawi and if the Philippines government and the AFP had acted on the intelligence they had gathered and which was given to them.  What sense does it make to adopt a soft policy towards towards terrorists when it is known that some of them are ISIS fighters? What sense does it make to continue this policy after one group, Maute, had already attempted to establish a wilayat in November 2016? Those are questions the Senate must ask.

The people of the Philippines deserve to know:

WHAT was known?

WHO knew it?

WHEN did they know it?

WHY was nothing done about it?

https://www.rappler.com/nation/172777-isis-military-marawi-crisis-martial-law-calida

Contrary to Lorenzana's statement, "The time of blaming somebody or pointing somebody is past," there must be a Senate investigation into the prior knowledge the government had of the attack on Marawi. It must be brought to light who is to blame for allowing the weapons to flow and why nothing was done to prevent an attack which the AFP knew was inevitable. No doubt Lorenzana does not want a blaming and finger pointing investigation because he knows, as Defense Secretary, much of the blame lies squarely on his shoulders.

Let us hope such an investigation will be held and the truth will prevail.