Last year then AFP Chief Galvez admitted, "The greatest threat we have now is really ISIS." This remains true nearly a year later.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1116436/cidg-nabs-3-alleged-members-of-islamic-state-terror-cell |
Three suspected members of the Islamic State-linked Daulah Islamiyah Ranao Extremists were arrested in Parañaque City and Rizal province on Friday.
The Philippine National Police-Criminal Investigation and Detection Group (PNP-CIDG) identified the first two suspects as Norodin Abolkhair Manalinding and Cairo Gen Manatao Abolkhair, who were arrested at around 3:30 a.m. along Rimas Street in Barangay Baclaran in Parañaque City.
The CIDG said the two were natives of Barangay Daguduban in Marawi City. Initial investigation also showed that Manalinding was the alleged finance facilitator and recruiter of the terror group.
Meanwhile, another suspected member of the group identified as Tagoranao Dimaro Sarip Jr. was also arrested at around 6 a.m. at Barangay Sto. Domingo in Cainta, Rizal for alleged violation of the Comprehensive Law on Firearms and Ammunition Regulation Act and for illegal possession of explosives.
He was allegedly a propagandist and member of the media cell of ISIS responsible in spreading propaganda for the group, according to CIDG.
Could it be that the two men from Marawi City joined an ISIS affiliated group because they are dissatisfied with the fact the Marawi remains a pile of rubble and ashes?
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| https://www.mindanews.com/special-reports/2019/04/nearly-18-months-after-liberation-marawi-has-yet-to-rise-from-the-ashes-of-war/ |
Still piled up in ruins nearly18 months after “liberation,” the 250-hectare Ground Zero, the former main battle area — now referred to as MAA or Most Affected Area – remains a horrific sight and the horizon offers little hope for the devastated city to rise quickly from the ashes of war.
Maybe. It has been the claim of some that the slow rebuilding of Marawi City is fuelling a rise in extremism. That idea goes along with the whole winning hearts and minds theory which means that if the government can provide adequate services the people will not want to rebel and terrorism will therefore vanish. Such is the main idea behind Duterte's Whole of Nation Movement to end communism but also extends to ending Islamic terrorism. Even the Americans have fallen for this idea.
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| https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/27/world/asia/pentagon-philippines-isis.html |
While neither guided bomb nor armored vehicle, a gray oblong water pump sticking out from the brush along a remote dirt road is intended to be just as clear a sign of the United States’ efforts to stop the spread of the Islamic State.
It has taken two months, an American Special Operations civil affairs team, three nonprofit organizations and an entire platoon from the Philippine Army to bring the pump to Padas, a village of about 3,000 people in the Mindanao chain of islands in the country’s south. If all goes to plan, water from the pump will help impoverished farmers establish trust in the government, and, in turn, seek to undermine the militants’ influence.
“Whatever the international community gives us, we’ll accept,” said Macaraya Ampuan, an influential leader in the village. “But first thing to address is security. Eliminate ISIS so our livelihoods can be stable.”
The American military has deployed about 250 troops to the southern Philippines. They are part of a counterterrorism campaign that has existed in some capacity since 2002, but was officially restarted by the Pentagon in 2017 under the name Operation Pacific Eagle.
The mission is rarely promoted because of sporadic political tensions between Washington and Manila, the Philippine capital. President Rodrigo Duterte has previously threatened to eject American forces from the country.
During the battle for Marawi, the Pentagon played down the American military’s role, stating that troops there provided only support and assistance. However, officials said Marine commandos helped break the siege by training Philippine snipers who were struggling to defeat expert marksmen among the extremists who proved difficult to target within the city’s concrete buildings.
Now, Marine Special Operations units work quietly alongside Philippine troops spread throughout the country’s southern isles. The United States Army’s only Special Operations civil affairs team in the Philippines is also helping the villages around Marawi, where security concerns prevent State Department officials from traveling.
At the tip of that effort is the $58,000 water pump in Padas.
The project to bring it to the village was started by Capt. Angela Smith, the leader of the four-person civil affairs team, after residents told her of their two-mile trek to get water. The machine, and the solar panels that power it, was donated by two nonprofit organizations: the U.S.-Philippines Society and Spirit of America.
“One water pump, one classroom that we help build, those things make a difference,” Ambassador Sung Yong Kim, the American envoy to the Philippines, said in a recent interview. “So we want to do as much as that as possible.”
The State Department and the United States Agency for International Development have funded nearly $60 million for reconstruction efforts around Marawi.
Captain Smith’s team, whose soldiers wear civilian clothes and are often escorted by a Marine Special Operations unit based in Marawi, is the military’s latest embrace of a trademark American counterinsurgency strategy of winning over local populations.
“This village used to be controlled by the Islamic State,” said Cpl. Jumar Dayanan, a soldier with the Philippine Army platoon who was sent to live in Padas. “But now we’re trying to win the hearts and minds.”
For the water pump to work, the Philippine military must provide enough security to protect the people who, in turn, need to learn how to keep it running.
“The water pump becomes the vehicle for them to learn how to govern themselves again,” said Justin Richmond, the founder of Impl. and a former Army Special Operations soldier.
Call me a naysayer but if these people have been living for generations in this region and still have to walk two miles to get water (is that a four mile trek round trip?) what real hope is there for them to self-govern based on a water pump? If they can't think to dig a canal or a well how will they think to govern themselves effectively?
The village elder says he will gladly take anything the international community offers. Who wouldn't take free gibs? But he does offer up a lot of sense when he adds that the first thing to do is to get rid of ISIS. Security first. Reading through that article one learns that he was a former MILF commander and many villagers have joined up with ISIS.
The village elder says he will gladly take anything the international community offers. Who wouldn't take free gibs? But he does offer up a lot of sense when he adds that the first thing to do is to get rid of ISIS. Security first. Reading through that article one learns that he was a former MILF commander and many villagers have joined up with ISIS.
Mr. Ampuan, the village leader who once commanded the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Padas, is afraid there are Islamic State fighters who have been recruited from his community but have yet to surrender or be killed.
“They know people in the community,” Mr. Ampuan said. “ISIS offers money and guns to the young people. Young people are not aware of the reality when they join.”
Are these people really joining ISIS because the town lacks a water pump? These people are not dead which means they are not starving or dehydrating. Lack of water is not a problem. That two mile journey does not seem to be a problem to them. But here come the Americans, a woman no less, Capt. Anglea Smith, buying into the hearts and mind gimmick. It would not be surprising if ISIS jihadis destroy that pump or if it simply wears out from neglect.
Who is joining ISIS because they want more government benefits? Seems pretty backwards when the whole ideology is that they want government out and their own religious state in. Are the foreigners entering the Philippines via Sabah to wage jihad upset that the government won't give them freebies?
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| http://web.archive.org/web/20190426142653/https://mindanaoexaminer.com/malaysia-says-isis-militants-use-sabah-to-cross-into-philippines/ |
Malaysia said Sabah is being used by ISIS militants in crossing into the Philippines to establish bases and wage terrorism there.
Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Mohamad Fuzi Harun was quoted by Malay Mail on Thursday as saying that militants are looking for new bases to operate from because of attacks by allied forces on ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq.
He said Sandakan City and Tawau town in Sabah are being used by militants to enter conflict zones in Southern Philippines and also in Rakhine Myanmar.
“We are aware that in Southeast Asia, Tawau and Sandakan are being used as transit points by militants to enter Southern Philippines and Myanmar. That is for South-east Asia. In European countries, we know they are looking at Balkan states such as Bosnia and a few other nations,” he said, adding that this was from intelligence gathering and the exchange of information with police agencies worldwide.
Does that sound like men who are dissatisfied with local government or men who are looking for some action? Men who are given to an ideology they want to materialise? How about the recently convicted Australians?
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1119040/australian-gets-7-years-for-extremist-try |
An Australian who led a group that reportedly tried to sail from Australia to Mindanao in 2016 to join Muslim extremist rebels has been sentenced to seven years in prison.
Robert Cerantino, 34, was the last of six men from Melbourne to be sentenced for their attempt to “engage in hostile activity” in Mindanao, according to a Twitter feed by Australian Ambassador to Manila Steve Robinson.
Winning hearts and minds is not a policy that has worked well for America. It did not work in Vietnam, it did not work in the Middle East, and it won't work in the Philippines. From the above NYT article:
Similar efforts were taken in Afghanistan and Iraq, including by American troops who worked with and paid Sunni militias known as the Sahwa, or the Awakening, at the height of the Iraq War. That mission was largely credited with turning the tide against the insurgency in Iraq, before American forces withdrew in 2011 and the Islamic State swept across much of the country three years later.The Americans didn't win any hearts and minds in Iraq. They totalled the place looking for non-existent WMDs, handed out free gibs, and when they withdrew ISIS took over. Once the Americans withdraw from the Philippines the same thing will happen. Nature abhors a vacuum. History will repeat itself.
It is clear that any good-will generated from removing the previous regime does not last long. Consequently, the possibility of winning hearts and minds in any extended conflict should not be taken seriously. When it comes to operations like expanding infrastructure and education, Americans also seem to significantly overestimate their abilities in this area.
In reality, due to insufficient funding, poor planning, and corruption in the organizations responsible for carrying out these plans, such efforts have never truly been successful. Americans need to realize that they can be seen as an oppressor by native populations just as easily as the regimes they are replacing.
https://www.warhistoryonline.com/instant-articles/winning-hearts-and-minds.htmlThe last major war the US military won was World War 2 and victory was achieved through sheer force. If someone is attracted to the ideas ISIS presents then they will join and they will fight. Maybe Christian missionaries are needed if the US is intent on winning hearts and minds and steering potential recruits away from ISIS' ideology due to it being religious in nature. Perhaps the best way to stop the spread of ISIS is through preventative and restrictive measures such as martial law.
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| https://business.inquirer.net/268474/aon-is-threat-in-mindanao-highest-but-martial-law-stopped-its-spread |
Mindanao faces the biggest threat of terror attacks by the Islamic State (IS) fighters even as this risk is expected to be contained and not spill over elsewhere in the country thanks to martial law in the southern island, a global risk management, insurance and reinsurance brokerage services provider said.
Citing data from The Risk Advisory Group, Aon said 24 IS plots were foiled by security forces in the region last year, up from 17 in 2017.
“In particular, the authorities in the Philippines have had success in preventing the jihadist threat from spreading beyond the south of the country. They have done so through enhanced intelligence gathering efforts and the extension of martial law in Mindanao,” Aon said.
“This has made it more difficult for the various jihadist groups active in the southern Philippines to coordinate and seize new territories, as they did in Marawi in 2017. Instead, jihadists militants, and particularly IS-linked groups, appear more intent on initiating terrorist attacks. This appears to be part of a broader, global IS strategy to adapt its tactics to insurgency rather than holding territory,” it added.It could be that martial law has impeded efforts from ISIS and other groups to seize new territory or recruit openly but it is doubtful martial law helped contain the problem to Mindanao because Islamic terrorism has always been confined to Mindanao. There are communists everywhere but jihadis are only in Mindanao because the Muslim Moros claim that island as their own and they have been fighting to reclaim it.
What does ISIS in the Philippines look like? Here is a good visual based on statistics from December 2018.
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| https://taskandpurpose.com/isis-philippines-special-operations-water-pump |
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| https://media.defense.gov/2019/Feb/04/2002085699/-1/-1/1/LIG_OPE-POVERVIEW.PDF |
This quarter, the Department of Defense (DoD) reported few new developments in theongoing con ict between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and ISIS-Philippines (ISIS-P). According to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), ISIS-P remained active with approximately 300 to 550 fighters in the southern Philippines. Its activity was limited to the Sulu archipelago, where it had several low-level clashes with the AFP, each of which resulted in greater casualties for ISIS-P than the Philippine government forces according to USINDOPACOM.
In terms of ISIS-P cohesion, USINDOPACOM reported that there was no change in ISIS-P command and control during the quarter, and ISIS-P made no significant strides toward rebuilding the cohesion and capacity the group demonstrated during the 2017 siege of Marawi. USINDOPACOM described ISIS-P as being in a “reorganization stage” with the capability to carry out only “small-scale attacks like [improvised explosive devices] and small- arms/ambush attacks.” According to USINDOPACOM, there was no change in ISIS-P tactics during the quarter, and the group remained incapable of conducting large-scale attacks.
One of the primary objectives of OPE-P is to build the AFP’s capability to use ISR in operations against ISIS-P. USSOCPAC reported to the DoD OIG this quarter that the AFP had limited ability to collect information on a target and provide that intelligence to a unit on the ground to act on it.
According to USSOCPAC, this inability to collect, process, and disseminate intelligence was the result of several problems. First, the AFP lacks ISR assets. Second, the AFP does not have a “Production, Exploitation, and Dissemination cell” capable of synthesizing ISR information and providing it to a decision-making entity. Third, the AFP suffers from an institutional problem, using its limited ISR assets for live tracking of active operations to “provide a semblance of battle tracking for friendly and suspected enemy elements” rather than strategic threat analysis.
USSOCPAC stated that because of these challenges, the AFP relies heavily on the DoD and its contractors’ ISR capabilities to identify the locations of suspected enemy activity and provide intelligence products for their use. According to USSOCPAC, the desired end state is for the AFP to meet its own needs for ISR support to counterterrorism operations, including the capacity to target and conduct lethal operations against multiple violentextremist threats, without DoD assistance.
USSOCPAC stated that the AFP lacks the infrastructure necessary for its ground units to communicate effectively with ISR air controllers. In order to improve the AFP’s ISR equipment, USSOCPAC was providing an intelligence training package, “analyst notebook software,” multiple unmanned aerial vehicle systems, tactical command posts, and other equipment to increase command and control, situational awareness, and operational security. Additionally this quarter, the AFP worked toward obtaining cellular applications to enable ground units to obtain data directly from their own ISR assets, according to USSOCPAC.
About the new BARMM the report says it holds the promise of peace but also presents security risks without expounding on what those risks are. The report then goes on to document how much money is being spent and what other programs peripheral to OPE-P are being implemented to train the AFP.
Outside of OPE-P, the DoD provided a wide range of cooperative agreements, material, and training to enhance the capabilities of the AFP this quarter, some of which may also have direct applicability to the OPE-P campaign goals. In October, the DoD provided the AFP with 109 used cargo and logistics trucks and 2,253 M60 machine guns via the Excess Defense Article program, through which the United States provides surplus defense materiel at reduced or no cost to partner nations. Recipient nations must pay for any related costs, such as transportation, spare parts, maintenance, or refurbishment. USINDOPACOM stated, “this equipment will increase the AFP’s mobility and lethality, with possible applications in their operations on Mindanao.”
Suffice to say the US military is spending a lot of money in the Philippines assisting the AFP to fight the threat of ISIS. Without that assistance the Philippines would be in a whole lot of trouble because they are simply not equipped to effectively deal with this problem. They fact that they are fighting a 50 year old insurgency is enough to tell anyone that.
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