Insurgency: An End Finally in Sight

Earlier this year the AFP set a deadline of December 31st, 2024 as the end of the communist insurgency. But is this possible? Is the end near for Asia's longest running communist insurgency? It's complicated. 

https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/is-an-end-to-asias-longest-running-communist-insurgency-finally-in-sight/

Throughout 2024, frequent armed clashes have continued between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the New People’s Army (NPA), the armed wing of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). The long-running conflict has endured despite the significant weakening of the NPA and recent efforts to establish a peacebuilding process that aims to bring an end to its insurgency.

At the end of November last year, a high-ranking delegation from Manila met with the CPP’s political wing, the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP), in Oslo, the first such talks to be held in six years. In a signed joint statement the two sides agreed to a “principled and peaceful resolution of the armed conflict” and to address the “deep rooted socioeconomic and political grievances” that have long fueled the insurgency.

While the talks were heralded as a breakthrough at the time, it soon became evident that significant obstacles to peace remained. Less than a year later, it appears that such concerns were well-warranted, as the violence has continued, and a pervasive atmosphere of mutual mistrust persists.

After a brief respite in the conflict following the signing of the joint statement, the NPA resumed attacks on government forces while the AFP continued its counter-insurgency campaign against the weakened yet resilient rebels. According to the most recent Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) Asia-Pacific dataset, there have been 128 armed clashes between the NPA and the AFP this year, which have killed 106 suspected NPA militants and 15 Filipino soldiers.

On September 11, four members of the NPA were killed in armed clashes with the AFP in Peñablanca town, Cagayan. The clashes were just the latest iteration of a conflict that has been waged over five decades across the Philippine archipelago and has cost the lives of an estimated 40,000  civilians, soldiers, and rebels. The rebellion is considered Asia’s longest-running communist insurgency and one of the world’s most enduring armed conflicts.

During a visit to a tactical command post following the recent clashes, AFP chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. congratulated the troops on the successful operation in Peñablanca and emphasized the AFP’s commitment to end the insurgency. He also said, “your dedication and courage are crucial as we transition to territorial defense operations.” Brawner’s remarks are worth noting as they directly relate to two key issues currently facing the Philippines.

First, the military is committed to continuing its counterinsurgency campaign of definitively defeating the NPA. Second, the AFP is seeking to shift its focus from internal security threats to territorial defense in response to the increased tensions with China in the South China Sea. The Oslo joint statement actually made specific reference to “the foreign threats facing the country,” and that both sides recognized “the need to unite as a nation” in order to resolve these and other challenges.

The ongoing commitment of the AFP to continuing its counterinsurgency campaign with the stated goal of “ending” the NPA is being carried out concurrently with the Marcos administration’s approach of advocating for a peacebuilding process. This process entails exploratory talks with the NDFP, amnesties for current and former NPA members, and government-funded development projects in regions the military designates as “rebel-free.” However, the implementation of these projects has so far been varied across different provinces.

According to Michael Hart, editorial and social media coordinator of the Pacific Review journal at the University of Warwick, the current approach can be viewed as a dual-track process. He describes the process as being one in which “the government engages in peace talks with the NDFP at the national level, while the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC) and the Philippine military continue to degrade the insurgency on the ground, as that would inevitably weaken the rebels’ negotiating position.”

While the security forces have remained openly skeptical of achieving a peaceful solution to the conflict, the CPP has not given them much reason to alleviate their misgivings. At the end of December last year less than a month after the signing of the Oslo agreement and on the CPP’s 55th anniversary, the CPP announced its third rectification movement, aimed at establishing more guerilla fronts and bases, and its intention to continue “basic or annihilative tactical offensives” against “isolated and detached units of the enemy.” It’s worth noting that the CPP statement was issued a day after an armed clash with the AFP on Christmas day that killed nine NPA fighters.

In response to the CPP’s statement, the National Security Council said it was “very perplexed and disappointed” and that the NPA was “determined to regroup and rebuild what remains of its forces, to continue its protracted war in hopes of achieving its end goal of overthrowing our democratic government.”

As counter-insurgency operations intensified, the CPP released another statement at the end of March that was even more escalatory than the previous one. In it, the CPP ordered the NPA to carry out an “all-out effort” to launch a new tactical offensive “to frustrate the brutal campaign of encirclement and suppression being waged by the U.S.-Marcos regime and shatter the reign of terror of the AFP in the countryside.”

By this point, the escalatory rhetoric from both sides was markedly different from the conciliatory tone of the Oslo joint statement. In July, National Security Adviser Eduardo Año stated that the NTF-ELCAC would “completely crush” the NPA by the end of Marcos’s presidential term. Similar declarations have been made by numerous previous administrations, without success.

After extended periods of little to no dialogue, the government recently announced it had re-engaged in exploratory talks with the NDFP. On September 2, Carlito Galvez Jr., the presidential adviser on peace, reconciliation, and unity, proclaimed that the government was “very optimistic” that a final peace agreement could be reached before the end of Marcos’s term.

At the same time, ongoing military advances have led more hawkish members of the military to believe that there is little point in negotiating with an enemy that has proven it cannot be trusted and is on the verge of defeat. By all accounts, the rebels are currently on the defensive and have been significantly weakened.

As of mid-August, the government estimated the number of NPA fighters at between 1,200 and 2,000, which it claims are operating across five weakened guerilla fronts. This is significantly down from the 89 NPA fronts that were active as recently as 2018 and the estimated 25,000 fighters that it fielded at the movement’s peak in the 1980s.

While the communist insurgency has mainly been pushed back into its traditional strongholds of Bicol, Samar, Negros, and parts of Mindanao, ongoing community support has made efforts to conduct further operations against the rebels an onerous task for the security forces. In many instances, heavy-handed counter-insurgency operations have produced greater resentment in local communities, particularly in some indigenous communities, which have in turn provided new recruits and vital community support for the NPA.

Although the NPA does appear to be in relative decline, with significantly reduced capabilities and territorial influence, its resilience and deep-rooted support in impoverished and remote communities have greatly complicated the AFP’s goal of decisively defeating the insurgency. While a ceasefire agreement seems like a logical first step in a possible peacebuilding process, mutual distrust, both sides’ prioritization of short-term military gains, and the rebels’ history of opportunistically using such agreements to rebuild and regroup make such an agreement seem currently unlikely.

It does also seem, however, that the rebels may not have the ability to rebuild and regroup to quite the same extent as during past ceasefires. Many top-ranking members of the CPP leadership have been killed in recent years, and the party’s founder Jose Maria Sison died in self-exile in the Netherlands in 2022. Georgi Engelbrecht, senior analyst for the Philippines at the International Crisis Group, told The Diplomat that recent setbacks and military pressure from the AFP had “further weakened the movement” and that “it would be difficult for the insurgency to revive itself.”

However, he also said that “you cannot kill an idea with bullets,” and that a definitive end to the conflict will require the government to “tackle the root causes” of the insurgency in socio-economically marginalized regions of the country. To do so, it will need to transition from some of the more cosmetic approaches of previous peacebuilding initiatives to more consultative and transformative policies. Such policies should be aimed at bringing real development to these remote regions while simultaneously promoting reconciliation with local communities. However, given the current weakened state of the insurgency, the government may have little incentive to pursue long-term peacebuilding initiatives of this kind.

For the time being it appears as though a potential path to peace for Asia’s longest-running communist insurgency will be long and fraught, with many challenges and setbacks along the way. It will ultimately require both sides to overcome the pervasive atmosphere of mutual mistrust before the final steps can be taken.

There is a lot of information to parse in that analysis. According to this analyst the AFP estimates there are between 2,000 and 1,200 NPA rebels left. That is a very significant number which is higher than what has been reported in the Philippine mainstream media. The Philippine MSM has reported the AFP estimating there are only 1,200 rebels left and they are without leadership unable to carry out tactical offensives. 

Yet this analysis says not only are tactical offensives being carried out but "heavy-handed counter-insurgency operations have produced greater resentment in local communities" "which have in turn provided new recruits and vital community support for the NPA." That is the opposite of the AFP's claim there are many communities have turned against the NPA and are snitching on them. At least it is a bold omission which is not giving the full picture of the fight against the insurgency. 

Basically the insurgency is not going to end this year. What would it mean for the insurgency to actually end when the AFP has admitted there will never be a zero-insurgent situation?

Is playing whack-a-mole the best the AFP can do? Bohol has been declared insurgent free yet the AFP has to be on alert lest there is a resurgence of the NPA.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1235268

The 47th Infantry Battalion (47IB) of the Philippine Army based in Negros Oriental is relentlessly sustaining its operations in nearby Bohol province to prevent a resurgence of the New People’s Army (NPA).

Lt. Col. Magno Mapalad, 47IB commanding officer, told the Philippine News Agency on Thursday that they are committed to ensuring that the NPA – the armed component of the Communist Party of the Philippines – could no longer recoup or conduct recruitment activities in Bohol.

“We are continuing our sustainment operations with the help and cooperation of the local governments and other stakeholders to maintain its current status of being insurgency-free,” Mapalad said in mixed English and Filipino.

He added that they are also strengthening their integrated territorial defense system after the remaining NPA members of the last guerilla front were neutralized early this year.

Although based in Negros Oriental province, the coverage area of the 47IB includes Bohol province.

Maj. Gen. Marion Sison, commander of the 3rd Infantry Division (3ID) based in Jamindan town, Capiz province, during his visit to the 47IB headquarters in Mabinay town, Negros Oriental on Thursday morning, urged the troops to not let their guard down while pursuing efforts to put an end to the insurgency in the province.

Lt. Col. J-jay Javines, 3ID spokesperson, in an interview said that Sison’s visit to the 47IB and other Philippine Army units in Negros Island is to remind them that their efforts should be focused on accomplishing the mission of ending the local communist armed conflict this year.

“We need now to transition, preposition, and prepare for our territorial defense operations to end the local communist armed conflict by December 31st,” Javines said.

The 3ID commander gave awards, rewards, and recognition to 47IB troops, particularly in the battalion’s accomplishment in Bohol, which no longer has armed rebels and affected organizations, which he also wants to happen in other areas.

If there could possibly be a resurgence of the NPA in Bohol then not all elements of the NPA have been eliminated. 

Three more leaders of the leaderless NPA have been captured in Apayao. 

https://mb.com.ph/2024/10/9/troops-capture-3-npa-leaders-in-apayao

Authorities captured three high-ranking New People's Army leaders in Barangay Manag, Conner, Apayao, on October 8.

The 503rd Infantry Brigade received information from a concerned citizen about the presence of communist rebels in the area.

Soldiers backed by policemen patrolled the area and intercepted three individuals who were positively identified as key members of the Regional Guerilla Unit-Regional Operations Command of the Ilocos-Cordillera Regional Committee (ICRC) operating in Northern Luzon.

They were identified as alias Sam, commanding officer of the Regional Sentro de Grabidad (RSDG) of the ICRC; alias Tanya, political instructor; and alias Annie, organizer and head of education of the weakened guerilla front Kilusang Larangang Gerilya-Baggas.

Seized from them were two M16A1 rifles with ammunition, grenades, explosives, and personal belongings.

Major Gen. Gulliver L. Señires, commander of the 5th Infantry Division, commended operating units for a successful operation.

“The capture of these high-ranking NPA leaders is a significant step towards dismantling the remaining guerilla fronts in Northern Luzon. It demonstrates that the people are increasingly rejecting the NPA’s violent ideology and supporting the government’s efforts to achieve lasting peace and development in the region.”

He urged remaining NPA to return to the fold of the  government.

It's the old another "significant step towards dismantling" the NPA rhetoric. Yet the NPA persists. Maybe it will be true this time. 

Ex-rebels have been assisting the AFP in locating buried NPA weapons caches. They are a vital part of the AFP's counterinsurgency program. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1235118

More former rebels, members of their families, and friends have been joining the government’s anti-insurgency drive by disclosing the locations of firearms buried by the New People’s Army (NPA), the Philippine Army said Wednesday.

Brig. Gen. Perfecto Peñaredondo, acting commander of the Army’s 8th Infantry Division, said there has been recent success in their campaign to fight insurgents with the information provided by NPA members and allies on the location of arms caches.

"This is a clear indication that the families of the NPA members and the community appreciate the efforts of the government and have decided to support the fight of ending the local communist armed conflict," Peñaredondo said in a statement.

On Oct. 5, a family member of alias ‘Agunos’, an NPA rebel killed in an armed encounter in February, revealed the locations of an arms cache containing three firearms in the upland Rizal village in Kananga, Leyte.

Troops from the 93rd Infantry Battalion under the 802nd Infantry Brigade recovered an M16 assault rifle, caliber.30 M1 garand, KG-9 pistol, five magazines, and 41 rounds of 5.56mm ammunition allegedly owned by the recently dismantled platoon 2 of the island committee Levox under the NPA Eastern Visayas regional party committee.

On Oct. 3, acting on a tip-off from a former rebel, soldiers facilitated the surrender of two active NPA remnants and recovered a significant cache of weapons and ammunition in Eastern Samar.

Soldiers from the Army’s 78th Infantry Battalion received information from alias ‘Apolonio’, a former Yunit Militia member of the NPA who identified two active NPA members hiding in Abejao village in Salcedo, Eastern Samar.

‘Apolonio’ disclosed the location of Lilio Betasolo Jacobe, alias Baoy, vice squad leader of NPA’s Apoy Platoon Squad 2, and Enorio Afable Aquilla, alias Rokles, a member of the same squad. Both rebels surrendered in Abejao village in Salcedo town.

These individuals were involved in a clash with government forces on July 25 this year, in Osmeña village, General MacArthur town in Eastern Samar, where their leader, Joel Guarino, alias ‘Duran’, was killed.

Following their surrender, they revealed the locations of hidden arms caches in the villages of Osmeña and Laurel in the same town.

The operation resulted in the recovery of two M16 rifles, two M14 rifles, one M1903 caliber .30 Springfield rifle, and one AK-47 rifle.

Brig. Gen. Noel Vestuir, commander of the Philippine Army’s 802nd Infantry Brigade, said the success of this operation is credited to their efforts in the conduct of comprehensive debriefings with former rebels and implementing the Friends Rescued Engagement through Their Families program.

The program optimizes the local government’s efforts to link and convince the remaining NPA members through the active participation of the rebels’ families to work for the peaceful surrender of their loved ones and take advantage of benefits through the Enhanced Local Integration Program.

Some ex-rebels are receiving large cash rewards for revealing the locations of buried weapon caches. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1234985

A former member of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People's Army (CPP-NPA) and her spouse received PHP2.3 million from the government on Monday as remuneration for information that led to the seizure of 31 high powered firearms.

Alias "Sayap" was rewarded for providing information that led to the seizure of 31 high powered firearms in Barangay Gueday, Besao, Mountain Province.

The remuneration is under the Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program (ECLIP) of the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG).

Of the total firearms, 29 were monetized while two have pending valuations. Each were valued between PHP50,000 and PHP80,000.

In a press briefing at the capitol, Kalinga Governor and ECLIP Chairperson James Edduba handed over the financial package to “Sayap," a rebel for 35 years.

“He voluntarily surrendered and later provided the information to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). Many of the firearms recovered were machine guns,” he said.

Brig. Gen. Romualdo Raymund Landingin, commander of the AFP 503rd Infantry Brigade, said in the same press conference that at least 50 more NPA members in Kalinga are interested in surrendering. 

“They are, however concerned of the legal cases and security, which are reasons that are holding them back,” he said.

Landingin stressed that returning rebels will receive security and assistance under the Firearm Remuneration and Demilitarization Program.

DILG-Cordillera Assistant Director Ruperto Maribay Jr. said the successful negotiation took nearly a year to finalize.

He said the former rebel will receive additional benefits under the ECLIP program like education assistance for his three children in college, housing assistance and livelihood package. 

It's comforting to know how taxpayer money is being put to good use.