The world is cheering at the demise of ISIS half way around the globe in Syria. Whether or not such jubilation is premature the AFP has a message to any jihadis attempting to set up shop and continue their activities in the Philippines.
THE capture by US-backed forces of the last stronghold of the Islamic State (IS) in Syria last month that spelled the terrorist group’s defeat has put on alert countries where the IS has put up so-called caliphate provinces, including the Philippines, and to be exact, Lanao del Sur, or even the whole of Mindanao.
The alert was borne by the belief that these countries, whose citizens have enlisted as IS fighters, or are hosting jihadist groups allied with the IS, should brace for the influx of returning fighters following the collapse of their group’s adventure in Syria.
While the warning could not be taken lightly, Col. Romeo Brawner, commander of the Army’s 103rd Brigade headquartered right in the heart of Marawi City in Lanao del Sur, said the IS and its mixture of local fighters are already finished in the province.
The government declared at the end of the campaign that it would take years before the IS, or even any home-grown terrorist group, can mount a siege in the scale of the Marawi attack again, given the death of its leaders and fighters and the continuing decline of its influence.
Military officials even confidently declared that the siege would be the last in the country’s battle against terrorism, jihadism and Islamic radicalization.
“No more, they are done here,” said Brawner as he not only echoed the line of the military leadership, but cited the progress of their operations against the IS and its followers, now tagged by the military as Dawla Islamiyah.
Brawner said the IS, even if it attempts to recruit, may find it overwhelmingly difficult to recover in Lanao del Sur. In fact, he said, IS is already on its way to oblivion, given the successive deaths of its leaders and the consistent surrender of its followers and sympathizers as a result of the continuing operations by Brawner’s Army brigade.
“The death of Abu Dar lends to the end of the IS here,” Brawner said, adding that up to his death, the terrorist leader only had no more than 25 fighters.
“He was a preacher,” he added, underscoring the capability of Abu Dar to recruit members if he would still be alive.
Other than killing the leaders of the IS and operating continuously against the group, the military has secured the surrender of at least 160 IS followers and sympathizers since Brawner assumed his post as 103rd Brigade commander.
Brawner, a Special Forces by training, said they would hunt IS members to the last man, while guarding against any effort of the group to recruit.
Tough talk from Col. Brawner but is he only echoing the line of the military leadership with very little progress to back it up? He says ISIS is done then he says they are on the way to oblivion. Then he says they would hunt ISIS members to the very last. Will it be a game of whack-a-mole in Mindanao? How many times has the military leadership declared the CPP-NPA irrelevant only to end up eating their words as they remain as strong as ever? Terrorists do continue to surrender en masse even while the AFP clashes with Abu Sayyaf.
Government troops killed 12 Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) bandits while five soldiers were wounded in four separate clashes as offensives against the ASG continue in the hinterlands of Sulu, military officials said Friday.
Same with the NPA. Plenty of surrenderees including top leadership.
A Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP)-New People’s Army (NPA) Terrorist (CNT) leader identified as Jomar Martinez Mapando voluntarily surrendered to 36th Infantry “Valor” Battalion Headquarters based in Barangay Dayoan, Tago around 5:00 PM, April 6, 2019, 36IB Civil Military Operations (CMO) officer said.
Lt. Jonald Romorosa, CMO officer of 36IB, said that Mapando also known as “Peter” is a resident of Sitio San Isidro, Barangay Anilong, Rosario, Agusan del Sur. He brought with him a homemade shotgun, and a .357 pistol with ammunition and other documents with high intelligence value.
As well as plenty of clashes.
The combined troops of the 3rd Infantry Battalion, 56th Infantry Battalion and 101st Division Reconnaissance Company (DRC) figured in five combat encounters against the New People’s Army in one day.
The said operation led to the recovery of recovery of five high-powered firearms, two fragmentation grenades, and one improvised explosive device.
Col. Nolasco Mempin, the commander of the 1003rd Infantry Brigade, said the troops encountered members of the Front Committee 56, Sub-regional Command 5, Southern Mindanao Regional Committee at the outskirts of Barangay Sinuda, Kitaotao, Bukidnon.
Mempin said the skirmishes also led to the recovery of a 20-meter wire, one generator set, five backpacks, seven cellphones, one power bank, and subversive documents.
The NPA leader Peter who surrendered with a homemade shotgun brings to light a part of the terrorism problem which many are aware of but which also still remains in the dark. That would be the problem of homemade weapons.
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Illegal gun making is a livelihood that has helped put food on the table and send the family’s children to school since the 1970s, and Mr. Launa, who asked that only the initial of his first name be used for fear of being arrested, is just one of a host of such small-scale gunsmiths in the region. His village alone is home to about a dozen.
The trade — which contributes to the estimated two million unregistered guns in the Philippines, slightly more than the 1.7 million legally registered weapons — is able to flourish in a remote place where jobs are scarce, police presence is thin and lawlessness runs deep.
Gun making “is an essential craft passed on from one generation to another here,” said Mr. Launa, 63, who learned the craft from his father and has now taught it to his son.
Gunsmithing blossomed in the area during World War II, as locals were taught to make weapons to support a guerrilla movement fighting the Japanese. By the 1960s, Danao had become the go-to place for outlaws and ordinary citizens wanting cheap but high-quality replicas.
In the 1990s, an effort was made to legalize the trade by regulating gun makers, but the project failed to win government support.
The handguns — which even an enthusiast would have a hard time determining are illegal copies, down to the “Colt Automatic Caliber .45 Government Model” engraving — are sold to buyers for around 7,000 pesos, about $130, much cheaper than authentic models.
Other weapons, like submachine guns, can be commissioned, too, although orders for the higher caliber weapons have become slow amid a government crackdown.
The police have said the guns have also made their way into the hands of Abu Sayyaf, a small but violent terrorist group in the south that is increasingly allying itself with the Islamic State.
“Right now, anyone can buy a gun here, as long as you have the money to pay, even if you were a thief, a killer or a gun for hire,” said the local police chief, Col. Jaime Quiocho, who noted the appeal of such illicit purchases to criminals. “Will you buy a gun that is licensed and can be traced back to you?”
Asked whether he ever felt guilty knowing his guns might have been used in summary killings, Mr. Launa said, “I make guns, but I don’t tell people to kill others.”
Colonel Quiocho acknowledged that the gun makers had little incentive or opportunity to abandon a trade that has provided a livelihood for generations.
“It has been a way of life for many,” he said. “If they stop it, what will happen to them?”
The police chief suggested legalizing the industry so that Danao guns could be properly tracked.
“They will make guns whether we like it or not,” he said. “So why not control the industry, their quality and where they go?”
The city government has tried to offer alternative livelihoods, though it has been a tough sell in a place where gun making is ingrained in the fabric of society.
Mr. Launa's statement rings hollow and false. He knows these weapons are being used to kill. Nobody is commissioning him to make hunting rifles so they can shoot game and feed their families. He may not tell people to kill others with the words of his mouth but his willingness to make guns which will inevitably be used in the commission of a crime makes him complicit. That he is a known personality and is still able to work his craft speaks volumes about the unwillingness of the PNP and AFP to stop the manufacturing of illegal weapons. Are they serious about stopping motorcycle gunmen as well as terrorists? It seems not.
Not even the president appears to be serious about the war against the NPA. Last month he said peace talks are permanently off the table. Now he has changed his tune. Again.
“I made the announcement that I’m no longer willing to talk to them. But who knows? It is not my wish, wishes that would count. It is not my predilection that would be important. It’s the welfare of the people,” he said.
The President added that he would look into the best possible move.
“So, I cannot talk with finality. You cannot talk with finality, because this office I am currently holding is not mine. I hold it for the people. I cannot say anything, with finality,” he said.
Last month, during the Philippine Army’s 122nd founding anniversary rites, Duterte announced that he would finally shut the door on the peace talks.
“I am no longer entertaining any interventions or persuasions in this democratic state of the Republic of the Philippines,” he said.
The President added that the NPA could talk peace with him.
He is even mulling opening new peace talks panel!
“If you want to talk to me, I’ll send someone else. You talk to each other. I don’t want to talk anymore,” he said in Cebuano at the PDP-Laban campaign rally in Bukidnon.
“I’ll look for another way and new people to talk to. Maybe one, two, or three from the military, and… Maybe around five. Two civilians and three from the military,” he added.
Malacañang earlier said localized panels will be formed following the dissolution of the government panel. It said sectoral representatives, local government units and the military will make up the panels for localized peace talks.
Panelo added the government will still push through with the localized peace talks.
Duterte has no idea what he is doing. Likely he feels caught in a trap. He loves the Philippines and has a duty to the Filipino people but he is also best buds with the CPP-NPA. He did say once:
“I am not qualified and besides, I am a compromised public official. Both left and right are my friends. How can I discharge properly my duty if the rebel forces are also my friends,”
What's a man to do? If he can't stop them perhaps he can issue a nationwide proclamation declaring the CPP-NPA persona non grata. Maybe that will make them put down their weapons. A few cities have tried this tactic.
Palma said the PPOC resolution declaring the communist rebels unacceptable in the province was adopted during the joint PPOC and Provincial Anti-Drugs Council (PADAC) meeting held on Monday and was attended by the heads and representatives of all sectors.
Brig. Gen. Bagnus Gaerlan, the Army’s 102nd Infantry Brigade commander, said the declaration would help undermine the influence of the NPA and its affiliated organizations.
How exactly will this declaration undermine the influence of the NPA? They don't say.
How the BARMM will function is not said either and there is a lot of speculation about its viability.
The plebiscite was to be subsequently followed by the appointment of an 80-strong Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA), a parliamentary-style legislature which would fuse law-making and the implementation of new infrastructure projects. The new BARMM’s major difference from the ARMM is the greater share the BARMM gets from natural resources extracted from the Bangsamoro region.
The BARMM will also see a normalisation process for former MILF combatants. The Independent Decommissioning Board (IDB) is tasked to oversee the demobilisation of 30 percent of MILF combatants by the end of 2019.
While the BTA has much promise, it does not have the luxury of slowly easing its way into governance. The BOL, which acts as the founding charter of the BARMM, needs to be supported by a framework of enabling laws and codes. Without such policy instruments, the entire bureaucracy meant to execute the will of the BARMM would grind to a stop.
Civil servants employed in the now defunct regional government face the very real threat of massive lay-offs if the mandate of their respective offices either lapses or become redundant. Promotions and salary adjustments would also likely be affected, as the BARMM needs to promulgate its own rules for its civil service.
Without clarity in funding mechanisms, disaster relief plans would likely be disrupted. This can exacerbate the effects of an exceptionally dry summer in Mindanao, as it faces the El Niño phenomenon.
Funding for BARMM infrastructure would come from block grants from the national government, which can be as much as three times the amount allocated for the former ARMM.
The question is whether the BARMM’s fiscal policy can be truly independent, given that the new political entity still needs to develop its bureaucracy. The BOL anticipates that the BARMM will sustain itself through the exploitation of natural resources.
Compared to other regions in the Philippines, the BARMM would get 75 percent of proceeds from resource exploitation (including offshore oil and gas) instead of 40 percent. There are concerns if the BARMM can transcend the endemic corruption that beset the former ARMM.
Under the BOL, the new BARMM would have its own regional security force, in charge of internal security.
The other important security-related question is the normalisation process for combatants of the MILF’s armed wing — the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces (BIAF). The process will be overseen by the Independent Decommissioning Body (IDB), which includes members from third-party countries like Turkey, Norway and Brunei Darussalam.
Validation of the 12,000-strong MILF list of combatants will be an arduous process, with some members of the security services expressing scepticism over the ability of the BIAF command to compel their fighters to turn in their weapons. Further complicating the matter is the need to secure the budget for the arms buyback schemes that would incentivise the disarmament process.
Without tangible improvements to peace and development, the Bangsamoro constituency may be disillusioned and trigger another cycle of secessionist-inspired violence. If the current mood in Cotabato City is to be the gauge, the question is no longer whether there will be frustration and impatience at the grassroots. The challenge now for the BTA is to manage frustrations in the short-term while building sustainable institutions by 2022.
Obviously there are a lot of issues with the BARMM. First of all there needs to be a framework of laws to support the BOL which created the BARMM. As of now there is nothing. There is a body of appointees forming the Bangsamoro Transition Authority who's duty is to create that framework. They are hoping to get huge block grants from Manila as well as compensation from the exploitation of natural resources but the national budget has not even been passed nor is the BARMM's block grant included in that budget. They have to create a security force but they are in the process of decommissioning their forces which is a massive effort that is undermined by the lack of a budget to buy back weapons. But is it likely that a hardened MILF terrorist would give up his arms for a pittance? Why not just transition the MILF fighters to become the security force?
The BTA has a long road ahead of them.
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