Philippinefails: Martial Law: New Terror Norm

Last month the NICA (National Intelligence Coordinating Agency) predicted there would be more suicide bombings occurring in the Philippines.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/704458/nat-l-intel-agency-sees-more-suicide-bombings-happening-in-phl/story/

"Almost every six months we had one incident. We pray that none will follow but we are sure that there will be," NICA Director-General Alex Paul Monteagudo told GMA News.

"The terrorists are training and recruiting children as young as 10, 12 years old," he added.

National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. said that there are vulnerable sectors that must be carefully guarded so that they would not be recruited by terrorists.

These include students attending madrasah or Islamic schools, religious leaders, overseas Filipino workers, prisoners, and even netizens.

Less than a month later, 26 days to be exact, another suicide bomber attempted to cause damage to a military base in Sulu.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/239696-military-says-female-suicide-bomber-sulu-blast-abu-sayyaf

The woman who self-detonated as she tried to attack a military checkpoint in Indanan, Sulu, on Sunday, September 8, was from a pro-Islamic State (ISIS) faction of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), said the region’s military commander.

“For sure, she was with the group of [Hatib Hajan] Sawadjaan, because only Sawadjaan maintains bombers among the sub-leaders under Radullan Sahiron, who is the overall head of the ASG in Sulu,” Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Western Mindanao Command (Westmincom) chief Lieutenant General Cirilito Sobejana said in a mix of English and Filipino on Monday, September 9.

Sawadjaan is “ISIS-inclined,” Sobejana added, but is somehow held back by Sahiron, who “does not want ISIS to prevail over their organization.”

Sawadjaan has earlier been described as the "head of ISIS in the Philippines" by Interior Secretary Eduardo Año.

On Sunday at around 4pm, the “Caucasian-looking” female attacker was spotted walking from the Philippine Army 35th Infantry Battalion’s Kilometer 4 detachment to the next checkpoint, Kilometer 3, in Barangay Kajatian, Indanan, Sulu.

A caucasian-looking female. That means likely one of the 60 foreign terrorists said to be roaming around Mindanao. Now there are only 59? After every attack comes the analysis of what it means for the future. Westmincom Chief Lt. General Sobejana thinks the fact that the lady was alone means terror groups in Mindanao are losing popular support and weakening.

(They do not have popular support anymore. No support from the community. In fact, our Tausug brothers and sisters are furious at what these terrorist groups are doing. With the loss of popular support, their maneuver space has been reduced. That’s why if you look at it, before it was in pairs. Now, it was just one [attacker].)

Security expert and analyst Rommel Banlaoi has a completely different take.

At the forum, Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research chairman Rommel Banlaoi warned that terrorism is an evolving threat that will linger in the Philippines for the foreseeable future.

Jihadist groups in Mindanao will find ways to recruit members and gain firepower, Banlaoi added, and they will want to target Metro Manila.

“They will still continue to mount violent incidents. And this is the current trend right now, the future direction of terrorists will be more and more carrying out suicide terrorism,” he said.

How is it that the AFP and Banlaoi continually get different results in their analysis? Here he is commenting about the new BARMM in the aftermath of the Sulu cathedral bombing in January.

Terrorism expert Rommel Banlaoi of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research, said the peace deal was not a "magic pill that can give a panacea to the multifaceted problems of armed conflicts."

He said challenges will come from local politicians and armed groups opposed to the new Bangsamoro law.

Banlaoi warned that the new law could be used as leverage by the so-called Islamic State to attract foreign fighters to come to Mindanao to oppose the "cooptation of the infidels."

https://www.ucanews.com/news/southern-philippines-on-full-alert-after-deadly-bomb-blast/82978

Very different from the AFP who thinks the BARMM will bring peace. While the AFP was denying the presence of ISIS in the Philippines back in 2016 Banlaoi was warning that they posed a real threat.

https://globalnation.inquirer.net/135083/analysts-isis-a-real-threat-to-ph

Banlaoi added that the Philippines is vulnerable to ISIS recruitment as it has “one of the longest-running Muslim rebellion” and the Abu Sayyaf has already established “notoriety.”

The military has repeatedly denied the presence of ISIS in the Philippines, dismissing it as a mere propaganda.

Only this week, AFP spokesperson Col. Restituto Padilla said that there is “no credible, verified and direct connection” to the ISIS up to this time but they continue to monitor and conduct focused military operations.

ISIS influence in the Philippines will pose “imminent threat to the country” and will also affect regional security, Banlaoi said.

History has proven Banlaoi right and the AFP wrong. Why is this so? A billion peso intelligence fund and the AFP always gets it wrong. Perhaps the AFP had better start listening to him.

https://news.mb.com.ph/2019/09/13/suicide-terrorism-in-ph-on-the-rise-security-expert/

The successive incidents of suicide bombing in the country is proof that suicide terrorism is the newest face of threat in the Philippines and everybody should do their part to counter it, a security expert warned on Friday.

This could be attributed mainly on the “increasing” influence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to local extremist and terror groups in the country, said Rommel Banlaoi, chairman of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terorrism (PIPVTR), an independent organization created to better integrate peace studies with research on political violence and terrorism.

“I consider it on the rise because of the frequency of suicide terrorist attacks in the southern Philippines,” Banlaoi said in a television interview over ANC.

He enumerated the four incidents of suicide bombing that happened in the past 14 months: the Lamitan City bombing in July 2018; Our Lady of Mt. Carmel Cathedral bombing in Jolo, Sulu in January 2019; the Indanan, Sulu bombing in June 2019 involving the first known Filipino suicide bomber, Norman Lasuca; and the most recent one, the bombing in Indanan, Sulu last September 8 involving a female terror suspect.

Notably, the last three suicide bombings happened in this year alone.

With this, Banlaoi enjoined all sectors to contribute in the fight against the rise of suicide terrorism in the Philippines.

“It cannot be done through military or law enforcement measure alone. It needs a narrative that will destroy the idea of suicide terrorism as an act of martyrdom,” he said.

In the academe, Banlaoi said it is called deradicalization or counter-radicalization.

“Now, our government has initiated a program to counter that kind of idea. The Philippine government developed the National Action Plan to Prevent and Counter Violent Extremism,” he said.

Banlaoi said such action plan entails pursuing various non-military measures in order to address the underlying conditions that compel people to commit acts of suicide terrorism. It includes providing vulnerable and marginalized sectors with opportunities such as livelihood, education, and promoting the culture of non-violence, spreading the culture of peace, promoting the idea of acceptance, and religious tolerance.

Would this National Action Plan to Prevent and Counter Violent Extremism be the same as the whole of nation approach? Would the plan include building roads?

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1080412

Many village chiefs in Guihulngan City, Negros Oriental, are pushing for the building of more roads to benefit the poor, usher in development, and help end insurgency.

This, as the provincial government embarked on a multi-million-peso farm-to-market road project connecting Barangays Hilaitan and Trinidad in Guihulngan, a city besieged by the communist insurgency problem.

For farmers in Barangay Malusay, genuine land reform is what they need, as well as electrification in the sitios or sub-villages, according to village chief Vicky Hinabe.

Livelihood projects, swine dispersal, water system, irrigation and opening of new roads are being requested by Planas village chief Randy Flores. He confirmed the presence of insurgents in his barangay and requested for the Army’s presence there.

All of these concerns are being noted down by the concerned agencies, which are expected to take action as part of the ongoing efforts to end the insurgency via the NOTF-ELCAC.

Will more roads and electrification really end the insurgency? Do areas with roads have less insurgents than those without roads? More importantly why haven't LGUs built these areas up already? It is nothing to be applauded that they are developing these poor rural areas because they think it will end the NPA insurgency. This should have been done long ago. As it is millions of Filipinos are living without electricity.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/08/04/1940437/dark-ages-13-million-pinoys-still-living-without-electricity

More than two million families consisting of 13 million Filipinos remain literally in the dark as they are still without electricity, the head of the Party-list Coalition in the House of Representatives said yesterday.

Despite efforts by rural electric cooperatives and the National Electrification Administration (NEA) to bring power to remote areas, Rep. Mikee Romero of 1-Pacman said the government’s rural electrification program has not reached 19,000 barangays nationwide.

If building roads and installing electricity won't end the insurgency there is always pure, brute force and all out war.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1080186

The all-out-war against armed rebels by the Duterte administration will continue until all members of the New People's Army (NPA) have surrendered, President Rodrigo Duterte said.

"I have ordered the Armed Forces and the police to go attack full-scale. Kung hindi natin maubos ito, sa panahon ko (We’ll see if we can wipe them out in my time). And looking at the political horizon there, kung sinong mag-presidente (regardless of who becomes President), I’m so pessimistic," he said during a speech at the 2019 Outstanding Government Workers Awards rites Tuesday.

Compared to the previous administration's call to war against insurgency, Duterte said his directive to the security forces would be different.

"(In the past) when they are already in hot water, binibitawan sila. Nilalaglag sila. Mismo 'yung mga bunganga diyan sa Congress, nilalaglag sila. Dito sa akin, sige, (They are being dropped. Those mouths in the Congress are pinning them down. As for me, it's fine,) you just do your duty in accordance with law. Ako ang mag-amin sa lahat (I will admit everything). I take full responsibility," he stressed.

"Gusto ko kung maari lang, tapusin ko sa panahon ko (If possible, I want all of this done in my time)," he added.

All out war in 2017, no all out war in 2018, and now all out war once more in 2019 and until the end of Duterte's term apparently unless Duterte changes course again. The AFP and PNP are up for whatever he throws their way.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1080198

The military and the police on Wednesday vowed to undertake relentless efforts in compliance with President Rodrigo Duterte's order to wage an all-out war against the communist terrorist group New People's Army (NPA).

"We are engaging the New People’s Army all out -- employing and utilizing all its resources in a focused, surgical, and deliberate lethal and non-lethal operations towards the decisive defeat of the communist terrorists," Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesperson Marine Brig. Gen. Edgard Arevalo said in a message to reporters.

He said the AFP is compliant with the directive of the President and the commander-in-chief, who is calling for military and other government agencies to decisively end the NPA threat once and for all.

Since the AFP keeps on with the same old tactics against the NPA why should anyone think they will succeed? Since the AFP keeps downplaying the threat of ISIS why should anyone think they will meet their goal of defeating Abu Sayaaf by the end of the year? While the AFP says ISIS is weakening, even calling the latest suicide bombing a desperate act, the rest of the world does not see it that way.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/article/suicide-bombs-new-terror-norm-in-the-philippines/

A new norm? Even the Palace has expressed concern.

“Anything that will show a rise in terrorism in any area of this country is always a matter of concern and we hope our security will improve more on their devices to stop this,” Panelo said in a Palace briefing.