Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Martial Law: Continues to Lose

Are 50 years of communist rebellion about to come to an end? The way the government is speaking it seems so. But rather than ending in the glory of war and the parading of the rebel leaders before the cameras after reducing them to a forced surrender the communists might meet their ultimate end in a whimper as they are reabsorbed back into society as if nothing ever happened.

Brig. Gen. De Leon, who noted the effectiveness of localized peace talks, said the successive surrender of NPA members and supporters is a proof that the CPP-NPA-NDF is getting weaker as they are losing their regular and part-time members as well as their mass base.  
“From today onward, expect the help that will come to you from various government agencies at national, regional, provincial and municipal levels. We will look for ways to develop skills training and livelihood, ”he assured surrenderers. 
De Leon also urged them to convince their kin and friends to return to the folds of the law and avail of government programs and services. 
“If you want to help your mountain companions, tell them we're waiting for them. They have come down so they can feel the support of the government, ”he added.
Availing of government services is key here. With the E-CLIP program the government will give money, housing, and job training to all fighters whether communist or Muslims who surrender. This week almost 200 NPA members and supporters have surrendered.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1083807
At least 164 communist rebels, militias, and supporters surrendered, burned rebel flags, and yielded firearms during a symbolic rite in San Fernando town on Monday. 
In an emotional speech, Datu Mansuladi "Balakbakan" Umalis, one of the tribal leaders in the area, recalled how the New People's Army (NPA) threatened his life if he refused to join the communist rebel movement. 
"Even at 10 p.m., they would knock on our doors. They want our community to join their rallies even if we don't want to," Umalis said in the dialect during the event. 
Edma said the surrenderers will receive benefits under the government's Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-CLIP) for rebel returnees. 
In the municipality alone, the mayor said an allocation of PHP2 million has been set aside for the former rebels' livelihood programs.
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1083786
Some 26 former members of the New People’s Army (NPA) belonging to the Dumagat tribe surrendered to authorities last week. 
"The indigenous peoples are easy to recruit since they did not feel the government presence in the far-flung areas then. So, we have the Executive Order 70 on the creation of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict which identifies problem areas like provision of roads, irrigation, schools, among others," he said. 
He said the 26 surrenderers are now undergoing a process under the Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-CLIP) program which provides a holistic package of benefits that they can avail of, such as livelihood, medical, education, housing, and legal assistance. 
Some of the former rebels were involved in the burning of a heavy equipment on Sept. 21, 2018 in Barangay Maragondon, Real, Quezon; another burning incident of heavy equipment last April 22 in the Kamagong sub-village of Barangay Magsaysay in Infanta, Quezon; and in clashes with government troops in Barangay Kanaway, General Nakar town last May 1; and another skirmish at Lagmak sub-village in Barangay Pagsanghan in Real, Quezon, said Col. Serafin Petalio II, chief of the PRO4A Regional Investigation and Detective Management Division.
Isn't that interesting? Some of these 26 surrenderees were involved in burning heavy equipment and fought with government troops but instead of being tried for their crimes they will be availing of government benefits. This group of 26 is very illustrative of the problem with E-CLIP.  The problem being that criminals get government benefits and never face justice for their crimes.

Aside from regular NPA members surrendering top officers have also been arrested.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1082873
The Police Regional Office (PRO) 13 (Caraga) announced the arrest of a top official of the New People’s Army (NPA) in the region during a joint police and military operation conducted at about 12:30 noon on Thursday. 
In a statement, PRO-13 Director, Brig. Gen. Joselito T. Esquivel Jr., identified the rebel leader as Virgilio Torralba Lincuna, 68, married, and a resident of Purok 3, Barangay Banza, Butuan City. 
Lincuna, who is also the chairperson of the Kilusang Mayo Uno in the region, was also ordered to post a PHP300,000 bail.
Why would bail be given to a top NPA leader? He should be held without bail until trial. How maddeningly stupid is it to give a terrorist bail and allow him to get away.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1082903
In a statement released on Friday, Brig. Gen. Joselito T. Esquivel, director of Police Regional Office in Caraga Region (PRO-Caraga), identified the arrested rebel as Nori L. Torregosa, 37, of Purok 1, Barangay Maasin, Esperanza, Agusan del Sur. 
Esquivel said Torregosa is the finance officer of the CPP-NPA Komisyon Mindanao (KOMMID) in charge of the management of the collection and distribution of extortion money in Mindanao. 
Esquivel believes Torregosa has extensive knowledge on the extortion activities of the NPA rebels, not only in Caraga but also in the entire Mindanao. 
“We hope that they will cooperate with the investigating team in identifying individuals, business institutions and groups that are providing financial support to the CPP-NPA terrorists,” Esquivel said in the statement. 
He also urged the other NPA rebels to surrender and avail of the government’s peace and reconciliatory programs and initiatives. 
The arrest of these two men is a good thing especially if information can be extracted from them. Giving them bail only defeats the purpose of their capture. These men are enemy combatants who deserve no consideration of bail. However with the government encouraging people to surrender to avail of benefits it is doubtful the AFP and PNP think of these men in that way.

Across social media people rejoice at the kind of news above. That is understandable.  The arrest of top NPA leaders and regular NPA fighters laying down their weapons is very desirable. However if you look closer at these numbers they simply do not add up.  Something is wrong with the count.

In February 2017 the DND and the AFP both gave conflicting counts on the estimated numbers of NPA members.
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/02/07/1670024/dnd-admits-recent-surge-npa-numbers
The strength of the New People's Army (NPA) has grown to about 5,000 as communist rebels took advantage of the issues hounding the peace talks to recruit new members, a Cabinet official said on Monday. 
Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said he has received reports stating that there has been a "surge" in recruitment by the NPA, the armed component of the communist movement. 
"According to the Armed Forces, perhaps there are about 5,000 armed component all over the country," Lorenzana said at a press briefing at Malacañan. 
Lorenzana's statement contradicted the claim of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, which earlier claimed that NPA has about 3,700 members. 
"When the ceasefire was declared, there was a surge in recruitment. That's what we heard from our people on the ground," the defense chief said.
Is it 5,000 or is it 3,700?  The latter number comes up again a year later in January 2018.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/193261-new-peoples-army-strength
Armed Forces of the Philippines chief General Rey Guerrero said on Tuesday, January 9, the military is committed to weaken by 50% the communist New People's Army (NPA), which he said has estimated 3,700 fighters nationwide.  
"They have a manpower of 3,700. We intend to reduce that number by half for 2018," Guerrero told reporters on the sidelines of the military and defense department's annual New Year Call.
Did the membership roll of the NPA remain static? Just a few months later the AFP claimed that 4,000 supporters and regular members had surrendered since the beginning of 2018.  That is a large number and if you aren't paying attention it would be easy to think that large numbers of NPA soldiers surrendered which is not the case. That is why the CPP calls this number a hoax.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/647693/tale-of-4-000-npa-surrenders-a-hoax-cpp-says/story/
""Deceiving and forcing people to pose as NPA surrenderees. To come up with big numbers, the AFP employs deception, threats and violence to force people pose as surrenderees. Under pain of being accused of NPA supporters, and for fear of being subjected to Marawi-like bombardment, civilians are compelled to 'cooperate' with the 'surrender' shows of the AFP," it added. 
The CPP issued the statement after Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said in a television interview that there are around 4,000 NPA regulars and supporters who have surrendered to the government. 
From January 1 to March 15, the AFP has claimed recording 4,356 NPA regular members and supporters who have surrendered. 
Of this number, 626 were either NPA regulars or Sangay sa Partiko Lokal members and 3,730 were Militia ng Bayan, Underground Mass Organization members and mass supporters. 
"Over the past few months, Duterte himself and the entire military and defense establishment have spent hundreds of millions of pesos to stage Malacañang dinners with the president, tours around Luneta and other cheap gimmickry," the CPP said. 
"The bigger portion of the monies, of course, line-up the pockets of AFP field officials. According to our sources, funds from Duterte’s discretionary and intelligence funds are automatically downloaded to the ATM accounts of brigade and battalion commanders depending on the number of 'NPA surrenderees' they report. Thus, military field units are in a frenzy of conducting psywar operations to hold 'surrender activities'," it further said. 
President Rodrigo Duterte earlier hosted former NPA members in Malacañang where he promised to provide financial assistance, education, training, and integration to the Armed Forces. He had also pledged to bring female rebel returnees to Hong Kong for them to see the achievements of capitalist societies.
Of those 4,000 only 626 were actual NPA soldiers and 3,730 were merely supporters. Hosting dinners for ex-NPA members at Malacañang and sending ex-rebels to Hong Kong only serve to bolster the claim of the CPP about cheap gimmickry and psywar operations. Of course sending rebels to Hong Kong is not cheap but the taxpayer is paying so who cares right? And what about this:

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1081709
Some 120 former members and supporters of the communist New People’s Army (NPA) torched on Friday the flags of the rebel movement before military and local officials in Arakan town, North Cotabato. 
The event, held at the Arakan gymnasium, was capped by a peace rally condemning the CPP-NPA-NDF and the burning of communist rebels’ flags. 
“The group’s rejection of the communist rebels’ ideology and presence in their communities eventually led to their burning of the CPP-NPA-NDF flags and signing the peace covenant on Friday,” the military official said.
Staged or not burning flags is always has the purpose of being a symbolic psy-op.

By the end of 2018 the number of surrenderees reached 10,000.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1055638
As this develops, the AFP official said the number of regular NPA members and their supporters, who have surrendered to government forces from Jan. 1 to Nov. 28 this year, has now reached 10,698. 
Detoyato said these figures can be broken down into 1,121 regular NPA members who have surrendered and 9,577 supporters coming from rebels' so-called "Militia ng Bayan". 
Meanwhile, he estimated the remaining regular NPA members at only 3,000 but said this number could vary as the recruitment activities of the NPAs are still ongoing. 
"Nagre-recruit pa din sila kaya it’s constantly changing. (They are still recruiting so figures are constantly changing)," he added.
Here is where we see the AFP's figures not adding up.  In January they claimed there were 3,700 NPA fighters. In December they claimed 1,121 fighters surrendered and 3,000 were left. That makes 4,121 fighters. Nice how they add the caveat that NPA recruitment is ongoing and the figures are constantly changing. That gives them an out right? No because the AFP also claims fighters are continuing to surrender because they are starving, afraid, and tired. If NPA members are surrendering because they are starving then how is the NPA able to continue recruitment? Where are these recruits coming from?

The Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) Tuesday said that in the first two months of 2019, there were already a total of 608 Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army (CPP-NPA) members and supporters who have surrendered to government troops. 
Col. Noel Detoyato, the Chief of the Public Affairs Office, said of the 608 CPP-NPA members that have surrendered, 107 of them were regular armed members, 137 are Milisyang Bayan, and 364 are mass supporters. 
Just last Sunday, March 3, 2019, a certain Jobert Buenaflor alias Toto voluntarily surrendered to the troops of the Army’s 39th Infantry Battalion, in Columbio, Sultan Kudarat. He also revealed an arms cache located in Tulunan, Cotabato where the 39th IB troops recovered an M60 machine gun; a Garand rifle; an M16 rifle; and four barrels of M14 rifles. 
Alias Toto said in the initial interview facilitated by the 39th IB that he surrendered due to starvation and fear of the intensified operations done by the military.

Detoyato also attributed the surrender to the Enhanced-Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-CLIP) of the government which is still in full swing to ensure that former members of the CPP-NPA will have a holistic package of benefits that they can avail of such as, but not limited to, livelihood assistance, medical assistance, education, housing, and legal assistance.
 
“We hope that more members of this group realize that they are fighting for a lost cause, and we call on those remaining members to avail of the E-CLIP and come back to their families to live a free and peaceful life away from violence,” Detoyato said.
What exactly is a mass supporter anyway? A person who thinks the hammer and sickle are cool? Someone who has read Marx and agrees with him? And why do mass supporters need to surrender if they are not actively involved in the fight? Once again we see how the AFP combines the number of surrenderees in a manner that only adds confusion. 608 CPP-NPA members and supporters have surrendered but they have to break it down and unsurprisingly it is regular NPA fighters who make up the least number of surrenderees.
An officer of the New People's Army (NPA) operating in Kalinga province laid down his arms in exchange for a more peaceful life, even behind bars, if only to end the fighting and the endless death of innocent people. 
This only shows that ‘Ka Diwa’ is a gentleman who was lured into joining the NPA due to curiosity but now preferred to reveal the evils being done by the communist terrorists even if it meant facing the charges against him. He chose to surrender if only to somehow save minors from being enticed to join the CTG [communist terrorist group]," said Brig. Gen. Israel Ephraim Dickson, Police Regional Office Cordillera (PROCOR) director in a statement sent to the media on Monday night. 
“Ka Diwa”, platoon leader of the Lejo Cawilan Command, “Komiteng Larangan Gerilya Baggas” of the NPA surrendered to the Kalinga police led by Col. Job Russel Balaquit in the afternoon of October 16 at Camp Duyan in Tabuk City, Kalinga. He was brought to the PROCOR on Monday. 
Dickson said he appreciates the courage of Ka Diwa to surrender despite the dangers that he could face for leaving the group. 
Dickson gave financial assistance to Ka Diwa to cover his expenses while waiting for eligibility to avail of the benefits under the government’s Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-CLIP).
Lacuata said “Ka Diwa” surrendered to the police despite knowing that there are criminal cases filed against him, noting that the former NPA officer would rather face the charges than continue living in hiding and see young people die in non-sense battle. 
Ka Diwa has warrants of arrest for attempted murder with a recommended bail of PHP200,000 and another case for four counts of attempted murder with a recommended bail of PHP120,000 for each count. 
Lacuata said “Ka Diwa” remains in the custody of the Kalinga Police Office while awaiting promulgation of the criminal cases filed against him, which will also determine his eligibility to avail of the E-CLIP’s benefits.
Ka Diwa, a man with arrest warrants for murder and attempted murder, surrenders to the PNP saying he would rather live a peaceful life even if behind bars. Brig. General Dickson is so taken by this action that he calls Ka Diwa a gentleman who was duped into joining the NPA out of curiosity but now only wants to expose their evil and he gives him a little bit of money until he can avail of E-CLIP benefits!

Ka Diwa is a murderer and yet a PNP officer praises him as being a gentlemen, gives him money, and there is a possibility that he might be eligible for E-CLIP benefits. Unbelievable. Does no one see a problem with this?

Of course they don't! Instead the AFP and PNP continues to encourage rebels and their supporters to surrender and avail of benefits despite the crimes they have committed. Due to the AFP mixing up the classes of surrenderees, NPA fighters vs NPA supporters, the numbers appear inflated and unless you look closely you can't be sure exactly who is surrendering. To add to the confusion the AFP's estimates on the number of NPA fighters continues to change which makes any guess unreliable and a shot in the dark. While the surrendering of rebels and supporters is good this is no proper gauge by which to measure the war against the CPP-NPA. 

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