Insurgency: Buried Guns

As everyone knows the Visiting Forces Agreement between the USA and the Philippines is set to expire by August. While some people are looking for ways to salvage this agreement DFA Secretary Teddyboy Locsin says that it shall never return and in the meanwhile the US should continue to arm the Philippines!

https://twitter.com/teddyboylocsin/status/1257484434942521345

We are never going back to the Visiting Forces Agreement but there are other enduring—predictable not just ad hoc—ways of cooperation to give muscle memory to the Mutual Defense Treaty without which we would be an Oriental slave state. Arming us to hold up our end of MDT is one.

Is Teddy unaware that the VFA is what makes the MDT work? He himself said that very thing before the Senate.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/251198-full-text-locsin-speech-impact-assessment-visiting-forces-agreement-termination

Other Philippines-US agreements and modalities of defense and security operation may be rendered inoperative, despite remaining legally valid. Some of these agreements and modalities of cooperation include the Mutual Defense Treaty, which the VFA serves. The Enhanced Cooperation Development Agreement, which gives substance to the commitments in the MDT.

For the MDT, the VFA is the substance that makes it real and makes it work. The EDCA, on the other hand, is hinged on the VFA. There would essentially be no practical use for an EDCA in the absence of the VFA, which is the legal framework for the presence of US military personnel in military exercises and actual military responses under the MDT. Without them the MDT is just a piece of paper. There are contrary views to this.

Corollarily, the MDT is a deterrent to any attack from any power. The termination of the VFA will very likely dilute the US commitment to the MDT.

What good is arming the Philippines without the US military being able to train the AFP to use and maintain the weapons they are being armed with?

https://ph.usembassy.gov/us-delivers-military-equipment-to-the-armed-forces-of-the-philippines/

Purchased by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), this delivery is part of a series of equipment transfers designed to strengthen the AFP’s ability to meet mission requirements.  The weapons arrived at Clark Air Base on July 11, 2019. 

Previous equipment transfers have included radios, battle management systems, Unmanned Ariel Systems, night vision devices, and other items.  The United States will also train the AFP to operate, maintain, and employ the equipment.

Without the VFA it won't be impossible but it will be much more difficult for the US military to provide any training to the AFP. It's too bad that Teddy, who was against the termination of the VFA, is now adamant that it is gone forever and is not keen on seeking a solution to retain it.  The training which the VFA allows between the US military and the AFP "significantly enhances the readiness of the Philippine military to conduct a range of missions."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/01/duterte-trump-visiting-forces-agreement/

Although Duterte in 2016 threatened to kick U.S. forces out, he also clearly benefits from U.S. military assistance in these operations as well—and Manila may need more assistance as 11 of its soldiers were just killed battling the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group in Sulu. The VFA was also essential in allowing the U.S. military to enter the Philippines in 2013 to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief following Typhoon Haiyan. U.S. security assistance over the past two decades of VFA existence has been substantial, tallying approximately $1.3 billion, and annual exercises like Balikatan—though canceled this year due to the coronavirus pandemic—significantly enhance the readiness of the Philippine military to conduct a range of missions. Indeed, decades of close interaction between the U.S. and Philippine militaries have resulted in highly favorable views of the United States among the Philippine defense establishment, whereas China is assessed as the top threat.

If the AFP will need the US' assistance anytime soon they sure won't be making that publicly known.

Recently the USA made an offer to sell the Philippines attack helicopters.

https://globalnation.inquirer.net/187478/us-chopper-maker-offers-vipers-to-ph-air-force

American aircraft manufacturer Bell is vying for a contract to supply attack helicopters to the Philippine Air Force (PAF). 

Bell Helicopter, a subsidiary of the conglomerate Textron, is offering six brand new units of AH-1Z Viper in response to the PAF’s attack helicopter acquisition program. 

Interoperability would be another advantage of the Viper, according to Bell. 

“The AH-1Z is the latest attack helicopter for the USMC and the USMC regularly trains and conducts joint exercises with the Philippine armed forces,” Chin said. 

He also assured that Bell will work with the US government to offer a “comprehensive total package” that would allow the PAF to maintain the Viper “with little or no supervision once all training is complete.”

Without the VFA it won't matter that the USMC uses the AH-1Z and regularly trains with the AFP. This is not a done deal though and the DND might reject it.  It seems the Philippines wants brand new helicopters.

The Department of National Defense (DND) will evaluate the United States' offer to sell two types of top-of-the-line attack helicopters to the Philippine Air Force (PAF). 

DND Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said they will also determine if the attack helicopters being offered by the Americans are brand-new equipment or old ones. 

"We will study the US offer. Baka used na naman mea ito (Maybe these are used ones again)," he said in a message to the Philippine News Agency late Tuesday.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1102032

Only the best and newest toys for the AFP. After all they don't use weapons they capture from the NPA.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1270693/ph-military-claims-21-high-powered-guns-seized-from-npa-in-mindanao

Following what the military said was a 45-minute gunfight in the town of Siayan, soldiers seized an M-60 machine gun, machine gun parts, three homemade bombs, AK47 magazines, ammunition, bandoliers, personal belongings and communist documents. 

In Lupon, Davao de Oro, soldiers from the 66th Infantry Battalion seized an M60 machine gun, three M16 rifles, and one M14 rifle on May 1. The 67th Infantry Battalion, meanwhile, confiscated three M16 rifles and a US M2 Carbine rifle in Baganga, Davao Oriental on May 3. 

After an encounter on May 3, the 67th Infantry Battalion found an arms cache in Cateel, Davao Oriental consisting of five M16 rifles, two AK47 rifles, M4 rifle, M203 Grenade Launcher, M14 rifle, and M653 rifle. 

The AFP said the operations were a result of intelligence information provided by former rebels or residents in communities.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1101757

A former communist rebel led military forces to separate locations where the New People’s Army (NPA) buried firearms and explosives in two agricultural villages in Antipas, North Cotabato, the military here said Monday. 

Lt. Nikko Tarayao, civil-military operations chief of the Army’s 72nd Infantry Battalion (72IB), said the former NPA member under Guerrilla Front 53 who earlier surrendered to the military pinpointed the location of the rebels’ war materiel in remote Barangays Camutan and Magsaysay of Antipas. 

The firearms recovered on Sunday include two M-16 rifles, an M-79 grenade launcher, an anti-personnel mine, magazines of ammunition, all in Barangay Camutan; and two other M-16 rifles in Barangay Magsaysay.

All those weapons will all be destroyed eventually. 

The NPA is not the only group attacking AFP soldiers on the frontline.  

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1269540/2-soldiers-killed-another-injured-in-maguindanao-attack

Two soldiers manning a quarantine checkpoint in a remote village of Datu Hoffer town in Maguindanao were killed and another injured when Islamic State-linked gunmen attacked the sentry Sunday night, the Army said. 

In a report to Major Gen. Diosdado Carreon, 6th Infantry Division commander, the Army’s 57th Infantry Battalion said two of its 10 infantrymen died of multiple gunshot wounds when attacked by members of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) at about 9 p.m. 

The slain soldiers were deployed in a checkpoint in Barangay Talibadok, an upland village where the BIFF operates. 

Carreon said a 45-minute firefight ensued that also left another soldier slightly injured and now recuperating at an Army hospital here.

Attacked by the BIFF. The hunt is on for those BIFF terrorists who attacked the checkpoint but two have been arrested in connection with a recent bombing in Maguindanao.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1102169

Acting on a tip, joint police and military forces arrested early Wednesday two suspected members of the Daesh-inspired Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) tagged in a recent grenade attack near a police station in Datu Piang, Maguindanao. 

Colonel Arnold Santiago, Maguindanao provincial police, identified the bombing suspects as Sultan Baguinda Guialil and Mohammad Baguinda Candado, both of Datu Piang town and are alleged new members of the BIFF out on a test mission.

“The bombing was an apparent ‘test mission’ for BIFF recruits as ordered by Kagui Bayan, a BIFF sub-commander,” Santiago said. 

Following the incident, Santiago has directed the Datu Piang police office and all other police stations nearby to heighten their alert status since the threat of the BIFF attack remains amid the 2019 coronavirus disease pandemic.

New members out on a test mission. That means recruitment continues for the BIFF. What about Abu Sayyaf and the NPA? How are their numbers? Abu Sayyaf remains active and just like against the NPA the AFP continues their war of attrition. Here a little, there a little.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1102300

Government troops recovered an arms cache and a piece of communication equipment belonging to a suspected supporter of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the province of Tawi-Tawi, the military reported Friday.

Col. Arturo Rojas, Joint Task Force Tawi-Tawi commander, said the arms cache was recovered Thursday at the residence of Johan Sapanta in Sitio Saluag, Barangay Datu Baguinda Puti, Sitangkai, Tawi-Tawi. 

Rojas, who is also the commander of the 2nd Marine Brigade, said Sapanta managed to elude arrest upon noticing the arriving troops.

Government forces recovered from Sapanta's house several firearms, ammunition, a hand-held radio transceiver, and other pieces of evidence. 

Rojas said Sapanta is involved in illegal activities such as illegal drug trade, smuggling, and gambling.

Sounds like the AFP had a bead on Sapanta. They must have been watching him for a long time. How was he able to get away? Do they not know how to sneak up on a target unseen?

Remember last week the AFP called the MNLF "peace inclined?" Well both the peace inclined MNLF and the peaceful MILF who has stopped their war against the government in exchange for the BARMM are at it again fighting each other.  This time it's a rido or clan war.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/regions/736726/400-families-flee-homes-in-cotabato-due-to-milf-mnlf-clash/story/

Over 400 families fled their homes in Matalam, Cotabato after members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) clashed with fighters from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), a 24 Oras News Alert report said Monday. 

Authorities said the firefight began on Friday night after a member of the MILF attacked the vehicle of a barangay captain who was also the leader of the MNLF. 

A barangay councilor was killed in the clash, while six individuals, including the barangay captain, were injured. 

Authorities see rido or clan war as cause of the skirmish. 

The local government already deployed soldiers to the area to contain the firefight.

But the firefight was not contained as it spread to other areas of Cotobato a few days later.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1102438

A blood feud or "rido" involving members of two clans erupted anew Sunday in the North Cotabato town of Pikit, sending some 1,500 families to safer grounds while they observe fasting for the Ramadan period. 

Fueled by a land dispute, the armed conflict between the warring families have resulted in sporadic encounters that have escalated further as both sides used mortars and machine guns. 

Worse, the protagonists raided and burned homes left by fleeing civilians and carted away valuables, food supplies, and work animals, including chickens, goats, carabaos, and cows, according to local and military officials. 

Pikit Mayor Sumulong Sultan said skirmishes ignited again on Sunday in the villages of Takepan, Bulol, and Talitay between local factions of Moro National Liberation Front sub-commanders Jainudion Butuan and Kuwat, and the group of Moro Islamic Liberation Front base command sub-commanders Abdul Hamid Sansawi, Sambutuan, and Ekot. 

Sultan had earlier gathered both sides to settle the dispute peacefully. 

“The fighting slowed down but on Sunday, both sides exchanged bullets again,” Sultan said in a radio interview Monday. 

“We pity these people, they avoid bullets but they could hardly move to safer places due to community quarantine,” the mayor added. 

Sultan said emissaries of the MILF and MNLF have been sent to put an end to the "rido". 

Likewise, the mayor said he has also sought the help of the Army’s 602nd Infantry Brigade and North Cotabato police provincial office to send in peacekeepers to separate the warring families. Soldiers have been sent and fighting has ceased as of Monday morning.

It seems that even with the BARMM in place the Moros cannot settle their own differences without resorting to violence.