Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Insurgency: Defeat Imminent

It's been a killer week for the AFP.

https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1857237
TWO members of the Daesh-inspired Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) were killed in a clash against government forces in Maguindanao, the military said Thursday, May 21. 
Carreon said the clash ensued as the troops of the First Mechanized Infantry Battalion launched a combat operation and chanced upon a group of BIFF gunmen led by Saga Indong, Mahdi Adam and a certain Zan Kutin of the BIFF’s Karialan faction. 
Carreon said the clash, which lasted for about five hours, resulted to the death of two BIFF members namely, Salamat Kutin, the brother of Zan, and Nasruden Akmad. 
He said that two other BIFF members identified only as alias Amad and Saudi were wounded based on the report they received from the residents in the area.
Two dead and two wounded after a five hour fight.  Not bad.  But a recent clash against the Abu Sayyaf went even better.


https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1276254/4-abu-sayyaf-bandits-killed-soldier-wounded-in-sulu-clashes
Four members of the bandit Abu Sayyaf Group were killed and a soldier was wounded in two separate armed encounters in Sulu on Saturday, May 16. 
Lt. Col. Gerald Monfort, commander of the Army’s 21st Infantry Battalion, said the clashes happened in Sitio Tubig Paliya of Barangay Danag in Patikul town. 
Monfort said his troops were setting up a blockade when they engaged some 20 fully armed bandits under sub-group leader Ellam Nasirin.

Twenty Abu Sayaaf terrorists engaged but only four killed. But the AFP killed even more NPA rebels recently.
https://www.mindanews.com/top-stories/2020/05/11-npa-rebels-killed-in-surigao-sur-military/
Eleven communist rebels were killed in a series of encounters in Andap Valley, a rebel stronghold in Surigao del Sur, the military said on Thursday. 
Capt. Al Arnold Pueblas, spokesperson of the 4th Infantry Division said the soldiers seized firearms and laptops believed to be owned by top New People’s Army leaders in Mindanao during the clashes. 
Pueblas said the government soldiers numbering around 800 suffered no casualties in the clashes that started last May 14 and ended on Wednesday. 
“This is a major victory for us. Since I was a young lieutenant, Andap Valley is known as a major stronghold for the NPA,” he said. 
He said top NPA leaders like Myrna Sularte alias “Malaya,” party secretary of the NPA North Eastern Mindanao Regional Committee, and Alvin Loque alias “Joaquin Jacinto,” spokesperson of the NPA Komisyun sa Mindanao, were believed in the camp when it was attacked by the soldiers. 
He said an informant guided the soldiers through a safe path that led to the back of the camp which could house 100 NPA fighters. 
“The rebels did not expect the soldiers to attack from their back. They fought back but they were caught completely by surprise,” Pueblas said. 
He said the bodies of the 11 rebels were found along the northerly route taken by the rebels to escape the dragnet. 
He added the soldiers captured five firearms, two laptops, one overhead projector, flash drives, external hard drives, two anti-personnel mines, hand grenades, bandoleers, assorted ammunition and magazines, handheld radios, personal belongings, assorted food and medical supplies.
From Thursday May 14th to Wednesday May 20th 800 AFP troops battled perhaps 100 NPA fighters and killed 11 of them. These 11 killed NPA fighters is in addition to the 24 killed so far this month.

https://mindanaotimes.com.ph/2020/05/21/24-npa-rebels-killed-in-may-clashes-army/
Seventy-seven members of the New People’s Army, including top leaders, were neutralized by the different units under the Eastern Mindanao Command as it intensified its security operations in May.  
Lt Col Ezra Balagtey, the EastMinCom spokesperson, said the NPA suffered a series of defeats in less than a month as 24 rebels were killed, 11 captured, and 42 have surrendered in the past four weeks.  
This also includes the capture and surrender of 83 and 13 firearms, respectively, and the discovery of guerilla hideouts in the different parts of the command’s area of responsibility.  
To mention a few of EMC’s successful operations, an NPA front was earlier decimated after 10 NPAs were killed and five high-powered firearms were captured on May 10, in a series of encounters with soldiers of the 4th Infantry Division in Misamis Oriental and Agusan del Norte.

77 members of the NPA neutralized in the past four weeks. That is not too shabby.  The AFP thinks the defeat of the NPA in Caraga, north Mindanao is imminent.


https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1103146

The sustained military operations in Northern Mindanao and Caraga regions against the communist New People’s Army (NPA) is the beginning of the rebel group's defeat, the chief of the Army's 4th Infantry Division (4ID) said Monday. 

Maj. General Franco Nemesio Gacal, 4ID commander, said the recent clashes in Bukidnon and the border areas of Misamis Oriental and Agusan del Norte provinces that led to multiple rebel casualties were indicators of the Army's success in warding off the threats of the communists within its jurisdiction. 
“The continued decisive engagements of our forces both in the provinces of AgNor (Agusan del Norte), MisOr (Misamis Oriental), and Bukidnon signal the near defeat of the NCMRC (NPA's North Central Mindanao Regional Committee). The cooperation of our fellow countrymen contributed much to the success of our campaign in ending the local communist armed conflict,” Gacal said. 
The Army division chief said the series of setbacks is an indication of the imminent collapse of the NPA's forces in Northern Mindanao.
"The near defeat." Familiar language from the AFP.  Surprising he did not call them irrelevant like so many have only to be proven wrong. It's too bad that the AFP is having to divert much of their attention to other things than the insurgency.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1103430
The Armed Forces of the Philippines on Wednesday (AFP) announced that it will provide necessary assistance to the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) in the distribution of the second tranche of the cash aid under the social amelioration program (SAP) in identified "problematic areas". 
In a press statement, AFP spokesperson, Marine Brig. Gen. Edgard Arevalo said this came out during the planning coordination meeting with the DSWD. 
Arevalo defined problematic areas as those that have reported anomalies in SAP distribution; geographically-isolated barangays in far-flung and island municipalities, and locations where communist terrorist groups and other threat groups prevent the orderly distribution of SAP. 
"We will employ in this task our experience in distributing election paraphernalia during local polls," he added. 
While the AFP may need to adjust its troop deployment to aid the DSWD, he said this will not have an effect on the military's operations. 
"This may affect our security operations only in terms of adjustments in our troops deployment but not enough to hamper operational success. As a matter of fact, during the period 10 May-13 May, 15 CNTs (communist New People's Army terrorists) were killed in a series of encounters while we are assisting LGUs (local government units) in anti-Covid-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) activities," Arevalo said.
This will only affect the adjustments of troops but not hamper operational success. It seems that way given their successes in May. The AFP is also not fighting alone.  They rely on information from the community. That is why Duterte has offered a large reward for information leading to the capture of NPA rebel leaders.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/05/13/2013666/duterte-offers-p2-million-bounty-capture-npa-leaders
President Duterte has offered a P2-million cash reward and change of identity to any individual who can provide information leading to the arrest of top leaders of the New People’s Army (NPA). 
“Just tell me if you have killed a commander or know where he sleeps. The reward will be P2 million if he is a top commander,” Duterte said during a taped television address yesterday morning. 
Whether the tipster is a member of the police, the military or a civilian, Duterte said he would place the person under the government’s protection program to prevent the communists from getting back at the informant. 
“The one who provided the information to the police or military that resulted in the arrest of the commander would receive a share in the reward and would be removed from the place,” Duterte said. 
Being a former mayor, Duterte lamented that some local officials are sympathizing with the NPA rebels, which is why they continue to thrive in rural areas.   
“The reason why they thrive until now is because some of them are supporting the Communist Party of the Philippines. That’s the truth behind it,” Duterte said, referring to some local officials. 
“This is good news for the AFP. That will be additional reward aside from what is provided under the AFP Reward System. This will bring in more informants,” AFP chief Gen. Felimon Santos Jr. said. 
AFP spokesman Brig. Gen. Edgard Arevalo thanked the President for his commitment to reward informants, which could lead to the neutralization of top NPA leaders. 
Meanwhile, Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Gen. Archie Francisco Gamboa ordered his men to intensify law enforcement operations against the NPA.  
Gamboa issued the directive after the President offered a P2-million reward for the arrest or killing of NPA commanders.  
The bounty, Gamboa said, will motivate government troops to beef up operations against the rebels. 
There is a certain hypocrisy in Duterte calling out local officials for supporting the NPA when, as Mayor of Davao, he was one of their biggest supporters and told people to pay the NPA taxes.

http://davaotoday.com/main/politics/new-peoples-army/npa-taxation-a-reality-just-pay-them-says-duterte/
In Thursday’s trade expo, Duterte said, “I can talk, but I can’t talk them out of their ideology. You have to realize the Communist Party is entering its 45th year here. You have to admit there’s been historical injustice committed on the people.” 
Duterte said the national government should deal with the revolutionary groups by talking peace. 
“Crimes I can deal with it. But with the revolutionary (groups), I give it to the (national) government, but here, I advised government not to make arrests of revolutionaries” he said. 
As to the NPAs asking taxes he said “I cannot put it to a stop. So factor that in your investments. If you pay to the BIR (Bureau of Internal Revenue), you prepare also for the NPA.” Some participants giggled and smiled on this remark.
If the  media really hated Duterte they would be dragging out this story constantly. Especially when he discusses the NPA. But they don't. It's proof that either they are lazy or alleged media conspiracies against Duterte are simply nonsense.

The COVID-19 pandemic has put a damper on the commemoration events of the Marawi siege.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1103782
"Despite this coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, we have not and will never forget the heroism displayed by our soldiers during the 2017 Marawi siege. I call on the patriotic spirit of all Meranaos to do their part and help maintain the peace we are enjoying today. We are one in this fight, one in the fight against this terror threat in the province," Cuerpo said Saturday.

In the last two years, the local government units of Marawi and Lanao del Sur and the Task Force Bangon Marawi (TFBM) led the commemoration of the siege with various and grand activities. 
This year, only 25 soldiers attended the wreath laying at 8 a.m. Saturday, including the two flag bearers and a priest with their face masks on.
Marawi City is still imposing general community quarantine that makes the people’s movement limited. Mass gathering is still prohibited.
 
"Unity is a critical consideration in these trying times as manifested during the Marawi siege where the people and the security sector joined hands in fighting the common enemy. Peace and development can be attained. Nothing is impossible if there is cooperation, understanding, and discipline, among us," Cuerpo added.

"Let the Marawi siege be a reminder to every one of the terror and tragedy caused by the terrorists. Rest assured that your Haribon Brigade will do its best and exert all effort to prevent such tragedy to reoccur and to promote peace and development in the city of Marawi and the province of Lanao del Sur," he said.

Last year, a banquet was served after the wreath laying but this year, the soldiers immediately dispersed.

“We went back to the office and proceed(ed) with our regular office work,” Cuerpo said.
One way to prevent another tragedy like the Marawi siege from happening again is to stop recruitment into terrorist groups. The government preventing people from being able to return home after three years plays right into their hands.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1280038/delayed-marawi-rehab-a-thousand-days-too-long
As of April 2020, 25,355 families, or 126,775 individuals, are still displaced in different parts of the Lanao provinces and Marawi. 
“Three years of inaction and neglect in Marawi is a thousand days too long,” Robredo said. “We call on all concerned agencies to accelerate their actions while exercising full transparency.” 
The government prevented the immediate return of Marawi’s residents because the military was still completing the dangerous and time-consuming task of clearing the devastated city of unexploded bombs or booby traps left by retreating militants. 
Today, however, not a single family has been brought back to the war-ravaged area, fueling the clamor to change the TFBM leadership. 
“Actually, even before the COVID-19 crisis, we have long been on lockdown in Marawi. It has been three years already,” Lininding said. “That is the longest lockdown in the world.” 
Amenodin Cali, a community development worker and convener of Reclaim Marawi Movement, said the prolonged displacement was unraveling the social fabric of the Maranaos. 
“Residents of Marawi are not used to life as evacuees. Rather, it is them who host relatives and friends who evacuate to Marawi due to wars and conflicts in their communities,” Cali told the Inquirer. 
Proadministration Sen. Imee Marcos also supported the return of displaced Marawi residents, saying it would prevent them from being lured by extremists. 
“Let them go home soonest, three years’ exile has been an eternity!” she said. 
“The lure of rebellion is strong. International terrorist groups like Isis are reported to be recruiting disgruntled young Muslims with the promise of monthly salaries and aid to their families,” she added.
Three years in exile.  How many more will there be?  The task force (TFBM) promised Marawi would be rebuilt by 2021 and that families could begin to move back to their homes by 2020.
Del Rosario said the rehabilitation will be completed by the last quarter of 2021.
“We are very confident that even with the ground breaking in August, September, or October ... we can complete the rehabilitation of Marawi by December of 2021,” he said.
https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2018/08/martial-law-groundbreaking.html
https://www.rappler.com/nation/215676-marawi-residents-rebuild-homes-most-affected-area-2020
Task Force Bangon Marawi (TFBM) chairperson and Housing Secretary Eduardo del Rosario said Marawi residents who lived in areas which saw the heaviest damage during the siege will be able to return to the city to rebuild their homes before 2020. 
Del Rosario gave the projection on Tuesday, October 30, as the government finally held a groundbreaking ceremony in the war-torn city, signalling the start of reconstruction after several delays in schedule. 
He said the exact schedule of when residents may go home “depends on the progress of debris clearing and road network reconstruction,” but that it should be no later than 2020. 
Del Rosario added that majority of residents should expect these activities to take about one year and a half, though residents will be allowed to return if these are completed sooner.
2020 might not have seemed unreasonable to some in 2018 but right after the siege ended Lorenzana foolishly predicted normalcy would return to Marawi within 2 months!
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/10/27/1753057/lorenzana-normalcy-marawi-2-months
“Normalcy siguro couple of months, weeks pa dahil kini-clear pa nila yung mga unexploded ordnance tapos chine-check pa nila kung meron pang mga butas-butas, kung may mga tao pa dyan,” the defense chief said.
All these early dates have been wrong. As time passes it appears there was one and only one correct assessment of how long it would take to rebuild Marawi.
Urban planner and renowned architect Jun Palafox earlier told CNN Philippines it may take up to 50 years to rebuild Marawi because of the extent of the damage. 
https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2017/10/martial-law-new-land-of-jihad.html
Why did these government men make such early predictions about the rebuilding of Marawi? Because of Duterte.
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/909299/duterte-i-will-rebuild-marawi
“But one thing I will promise you, my brother Moro, I will see to it that Marawi will rise as a prosperous city again,” he said. 
 “I will rebuild Marawi because if not, I will remain forever the villain,” he said.
Rebuilding Marawi is all about Duterte.  He does not want to be the villain. It's no wonder his men lied to him and the public about how long it would take to actually rebuild the city. They would have lost their jobs had they told the truth.  But now they have lost something far worse: their credibility!

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