Tuesday, November 9, 2021

Insurgency: Major Blow

Coincidentally there recently occurred two events which the AFP claims are both major blows to the communist and the Islamic insurgencies. The first was the killing of the leader of Dawla Ismiyah and his wife.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/29/21/military-top-terror-leader-killed-in-maguindanao-ops

A leader of terror group Daulah Islamiyah was killed early Friday in a joint police and military operation in Talayan, Maguindanao, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said. 

Salahuddin Hassan or Orak was believed to be the "overall Amir" of Daulah Islamiyah. Hassan was also considered as the most wanted terrorist in the group, authorities said. 

AFP Chief-of-Staff Gen. Jose Faustino, Jr. said the alleged leader was behind the bombings and terror attacks in Maguindanao, North Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat. 

His wife Jehana Minbida, alleged finance officer of the group, was also killed during the operations, Joint Task Force Central said in a statement. 

It said Hassan was trying to escape authorities but was "seriously wounded." He and his wife were left by their group. 

The military also claimed that the Daulah Islamiyah leader replaced Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan, slain leader of the group, after his death last year.  

Hassan was also believed to be a former leader and founder of the Al-Khobar Group, which authorities said was involved in "different terroristic attacks in Mindanao" between 2007 and 2015.  

In a statement, Faustino described Hassan's death as a "significant blow against the DIHG and another victory in our thrust against terrorism." 

"Peaceful activities such as preventing and countering violent extremism... programs, which address the root causes of terrorism, prove to be effective in denying terrorists the opportunity to recruit members and stage atrocities in vulnerable communities," he said. 

Hassan's death could signal the end of the terror group, Army Maj. Gen. Juvymax Uy said, urging its other members to surrender.  

“With the help of the community and other stakeholders, we can defeat these terrorist groups and realize our desire of a safe and peaceful community. And I continue to call on the community and our partner LGUs to help us totally defeat terrorism and violent extremism," said Uy. 

The death of Salahuddin Hassan is nothing to be sneezed at and the troops who carried out the operation should commended. But is it really "a significant blow" that "could signal the end of the terror group? Salahuddin replaced Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan after he was killed in July 2020. In January 2021 the AFP also referred to his death as significant blow that signaled the end of the ASG.

https://www.sunstar.com.ph/ampArticle/1881658
THE Army’s 11th Infantry Division (ID) is optimistic that with the support of all stakeholders, the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) will soon be irrelevant and peace will rain in the province of Sulu.

Major General William Gonzales, commander of the 11ID, issued the statement Saturday, January 2, 2021, as the command celebrated the New Year with hope and optimism.

“As we have done relentlessly, our units will continue to serve you as we battle the threat of terrorism and pandemic here in Sulu,” said Gonzales, who is also the Joint Task Force Sulu commander.

The 11th Infantry “Alakdan” Division was activated on December 1, 2018, to pursue and eliminate the ASG in the province of Sulu.

The Alakdan Division have yielded significant intelligence and operational accomplishments in 2020, including the death of Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan, the leader of the Islamic State for Iraq and Syria (Isis)-linked ASG in the province of Sulu.

"Soon be irrelevant" and "defeated soon" are assessments give year after year as they fight but the communists and the Muslims. Here is one glaring incident from April 2017 where the deafest of a high-ranking Muslim terrorist was called a significant blow and signaled the imminent end of the ASG.

https://apnews.com/article/43785cdca12b4888a967287e769bf9d5

The killing of a Muslim extremist leader on a resort island in the central Philippines this week was a clear victory for the military, but it also drove home an unsettling reality: that the militants are venturing farther from their jungle hideouts to spread terror.

Military chief of staff Gen. Eduardo Ano said that troops recovered and identified the remains of Abu Sayyaf group commander Moammar Askali at the scene of the battle in the coastal hinterlands of Bohol island. Five other Abu Sayyaf gunmen, three soldiers and a policeman also were killed in Tuesday’s clashes.

This is a major blow to the Abu Sayyaf,” Ano told The Associated Press on Wednesday. “If they have further plans to kidnap innocent people somewhere, they will now have to think twice.”

“We are gaining important headway in our fight to degrade the ASG in regard to our timeline,” Ano later told a news conference, referring to a military objective to considerably cripple the extremist group of more than 300 armed fighters within six months.

Of course, a month and a half later the Marawi siege happened. It's hard to believe General Año could have been so confident that the fall of ASG was just over the horizon when the AFP had prior knowledge about the siege. It's less being overconfident and more like lying. 

In 2010 another ASG leader was killed and it was also declared to be a big blow for the group.

https://www.france24.com/en/20100222-philippines-sayyaf-militant-muslim-commander-leader-killed-albader-parad-dolorfino-blow

The Philippine military said Monday its killing of a "ruthless" Abu Sayyaf commander had inflicted a major blow on the Al-Qaeda-linked group, as it pursued his fellow militants on a remote island. 

"It is a big blow in the sense that he (Parad) is a very notorious and ruthless leader," Lieutenant General Benjamin Dolorfino, head of military forces in the south, told AFP by telephone.


"He always played a big role as far as the effectiveness and capability of the group is concerned, and the group always reflects the personality of the leader."


Parad, who was believed to be in his late 20s, made world headlines last year when he led an Abu Sayyaf cell that kidnapped and threatened to behead three Red Cross workers on Jolo. 

Dolorfino said Sunday's killings, which occurred after the military acted on information provided by informants, gave hope that the Abu Sayyaf could finally be crushed.


"Without the leaders, the members will be directionless and, if no new leader emerges, they may crumble," said Dolorfino.


Dolorfino said the Abu Sayyaf was now believed to have only 330 fighters on Jolo, with another 61 on nearby Basilan island. This is down from a peak of about 1,200 fighters in 2002.

Nevertheless, Dolorfino insisted there were strong reasons aside from Sunday's military victory for believing the Abu Sayyaf could be becoming much weaker, chiefly that were no signs of significant new leaders emerging.


"We have not seen any new member who has the reputation of the current leaders. We have not seen any influential sub-leaders who might take the leadership when the current leaders are neutralised," he said.

Here the AFP was hoping the ASG could finally be crushed way back in 2010 all because of the death of one guy. Lt. General Dolorfino underestimated the group by saying they didn't see anyone capable of leading the group. That assessment is stunning in it's lack of foresight because in 2010 Isnilon Hapilon was already part of ASG leadership and it was he who, four years later, would lead them to pledge allegiance to ISIS. In 2017 he would lead a group of roughly 1,000 men to take the city of Marawi. It seems the AFP has a perennial intelligence problem. 


The second event, which the AFP claims is a major blow to the NPA, is the killing of a top leader, Ka Oris.


https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/809065/afp-says-cpp-top-leader-ka-oris-death-a-major-blow-to-communist-group/story/

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) on Sunday said the death of top Communist Party of the Philippines leader George “Ka Oris” Madlos in an encounter with government troops ''is a major blow" to the communist group. 

"This is a major blow to the Communist Terrorist Group in Mindanao, and will usher in eventual peace in the region," the AFP said in a statement. 

Madlos died following an encounter with government troops in Bukidnon on Saturday, according to the military. 

According to the Philippine Army's 4th Infantry Division, the encounter, which took place in a mountainous area in Barangay Dumalaguing, Impasugong town around 11:30 a.m., also killed another rebel. 

The gun battle between the soldiers and around 30 rebels lasted half an hour. 

Madlos' body and that of another rebel was found by the military during clearing operations. The soldiers also recovered an M14 rifle, one KG9 rifle, ammunition, other war materiel, and assorted belongings. 

"He was wanted for criminal cases such as murder, multiple murders with double frustrated murder, and robbery with double homicide and damage to properties," the AFP added. 

The military also said Ka Oris "was directly and indirectly responsible for the death of soldiers and civilians for decades." 

"His death will deter the activities and plans by the NPA for he can no longer direct the communist terrorists’ violent actions against our people," the AFP said. 

The military also called on CPP-NPA leaders and members "to surrender and return to the fold of law."

Ka Oris was a spokesman for the NPA and NDFP. He was responsible for planning attacks. His death is indeed a victory for the AFP. But is it really a major blow that signals the end of the NPA? They certainly think so.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/11/01/death-of-ka-oris-boosts-confidence-of-military-to-defeat-reds-by-2022/

The death of Jorge Madlos, who was popularly known as Ka Oris, has apparently boosted the morale of the military that its Army commanding general was prompted to express optimism of the defeat of the New People’s Army (NPA) by next year. 

“We are optimistic that we can comply with the President’s order to end the communist armed conflict by 2022,” said Andres Lt. Gen. Centino, commanding general of the Philippine Army.


“We are on track with what the president has mandated us to do. We are capable of doing this. Everything is in place. We have the support of the people, which is the most important. We also have the full support of the administration,” he added.

Bully for them if the communist armed conflict is ended by 2022. That would be a phenomenal feat. The death of Ka Oris is not the only "major blow" dealt to the NPA this year. Here are just a few.

https://www.kalinawnews.com/surrender-of-seven-red-leaders-a-major-blow-to-the-cpp-npa/
Seven more leaders of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army (CPP-NPA) capitulated in June for what is deemed to be a major blow to the decades-old communist insurgency. 

EastMinCom Commander Lieutenant General Greg T. Almerol said this latest development puts the CPP-NPA to shame and will likely encourage their remaining members and allies to finally embrace the government.

“The surrender of these CPP-NPA leaders speaks volumes of how many of their comrades have grown averse to the violence means which the communist ideology is being carried out by the reds. Corruption and internal politics within their rotten system also further led others to abandon their cause,” Lieutenant General Almerol said.


https://www.kalinawnews.com/joint-forces-of-5id-and-7id-deliver-devastating-blow-against-the-disintegrated-npas-in-cordillera/

CAMP MELCHOR F DELA CRUZ, Upi, Gamu, Isabela- Troops of 72 Division Reconnaissance Company (DRC) under the operational control of 54th Infantry Battalion, 5th Infantry Division scored against the Communist Terrorist Group (CTG) in an encounter in Barangay Mainit, Bontoc, Mt. Province on September 28, 2021.

Major General Laurence E Mina, Commander of 5ID warned the remaining CTGs to stop their so-called armed revolution that wasted the lives of many individuals. “Barangay Mainit, Bontoc, Mt Province is not a place for you to hide. The people are giving us information about your presence in their community. We are one with the peace-loving residents of the said locality.”


https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1150695
The death of 16 armed rebels and recovery of several firearms in Dolores, Eastern Samar on Aug. 16 is a “big blow” to the New People’s Army (NPA) in Eastern Samar, a top military official said on Tuesday.

“The recovery of several firearms means that many fighters were wounded as they abandoned their firearms to flee from our troops. This will further weaken the NPA organization in Samar Island,” Diñoso said in a virtual press briefing.

Certainly those three news stories represent victories for the AFP. Only time will tell if these operations were "major blows" that dented the operational capacity of the NPA.  Here is a news story marking the 40th anniversary of the CPP.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/features/12/29/08/40-years-and-counting-communist-movement-mindanao

Jorge Madlos, a.k.a. Ka Oris, apologized for the bad weather and offered us lunch consisting of rice, slice of roasted pig, pork adobo, beef stew and menudo all neatly pack in separate cellophanes. 

At 59 years old, Madlos, a member of the CPP Mindanao Commission and Mindanao spokesperson for the National Democratic Front (NDF), still carries the zeal of a man on a mission who has seen the ebb and flow of "people's war" in Mindanao. 

Himself a veteran of almost four decades of life in the underground movement spiked by several years of detention under the Marcos dictatorship and Cory regime, Madlos read a four-page statement of the rebel movement in Mindanao and later held a press conference with select members of the press from all over the island. 

"We are on the verge of entering a new stage of our revolutionary struggle and have fully recovered from our debacle in the mid-80s," he told reporters. 

He said the CPP-NPA has re-established a strong presence in "more than 2,000 barrios (villages) of 200 municipalities in 19 provinces in the island." 

They have also added four new guerilla fronts this year, bringing the total to 39 fronts, and they claimed they did not lose a single guerilla zone in 2008. 

In addition, Madlos said the Communist rebel group was able to launch more than 300 tactical offensives (up from last year's 190 NPA-initiated attacks) and seized over 200 high-powered firearms throughout the island. 

"All these are signs of the growth of people's war (in Mindanao)," Madlos quoted one Ka Puman who signed the CPP-Mindanao Commission's statement on the occasion of its 40th anniversary. 

AFP Chief of Staff Alexander Yano said the government is right on target in making the NPA irrelevant by 2010, the year President Arroyo said the Communist movement will be decisively defeated. 

"Defeating and reducing them into irrelevance is the same.  We are on pace," Yano said in a mobile phone interview. 

General Yano said the Communist rebels will no longer be treated as a national security threat by 2010, and that the insurgency would become a police matter. 

Major Gen. Armando Cunanan, commanding general of the Eastern Mindanao Command (Eastmincom) of the AFP, on the other hand, said the number of armed NPA guerillas dropped by four per cent this year. 

Eastmincom spokesperson Major Randolph Cabangbang placed the total strength of the NPAs on the island at no more than 1,400 armed regulars. 

"They have been reduced to criminal activities, preying on helpless businessmen," Cabangbang quoted Gen. Cunanan as saying. 

In October, defense chief Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said the CPP-NPA has been reduced to holding criminal activities.  He said the Communist movement in Mindanao is extorting money from small-scale miners and large mining companies.

This article from 2008 is very educational. In this article Ka Oris says the NPA is strengthening itself while the NPA says they are on target to make the NPA irrelevant by 2010. Here it is 13 years later and the NPA remains a relevant national security threat. Let us all wish the AFP the best of luck in finally defeating the NPA in 2022 but history is simply not on their side. 

The problem is that they are underestimating this group. Ka Oris is dead, a few leaders have surrendered, weapons have been seized, but there are always men and weapons to take their place. Same with the Muslims. One leader is dead but a new one will emerge at some point. Why does the AFP continue to be blind to this fact? Take a look at this statement from 2014 after a leader of the ASG was captured.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-militants-idUSKBN0EM0N320140611

The head of military intelligence, Major-General Eduardo Ano, said the captured militant, Khair Mundos, was an expert bomb-maker and the “spiritual leader” of the Abu Sayyaf faction, which rose to notoriety early last decade by kidnapping foreigners. 

“This is a big blow to their organisation,” Ano told reporters. “They lost one of their leaders and they now feel insecure. We will try to get them one after another, we will not stop.”

What would make Año claim that the Abu Sayyaf "now feel insecure" just because a leader got caught?  By 2014 Isnilon Hapilon was leading them. Did he not know this? Every time this language appears (major blow, irrelevant, soon to be defeated) we can chalk it up to being propaganda. The fact is the AFP has no idea when or if they will ever defeat the Islamic and Communist insurgencies. 

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