Insurgency: Gasping For Breath, Without Direction

This first post of the new year about the insurgency will be a look back on the past year.  Of course the most important event to have happened was the death of CPP founder and head Joma Sison in the Netherlands. The AFP says this has left the CPP with "no sense or purpose or direction."

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1191460

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) is suffering from a breakdown in communication between its units due to the neutralization of its ranking leaders as it struggles to "gasp for breath", the spokesperson of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said Monday.

In a statement, Col. Medel Agular said the death of CPP's chair Jose Maria Sison in the Netherlands has also left the underground movement, which observes its 54th founding anniversary Dec. 26, with "no sense of purpose and direction".

"There is a breakdown in the communication lines between the CPP Central Committee and its subordinate organs and armed group (NPA). This is primarily due to the neutralization of many of the CPP top leaders: Julius Giron; Menandro Villanueva; Jorge Madlos; etc, the silence and long absence of their supposed Chairman now, Benito Tiamzon, and the loss of their mass bases and mass organizations," Aguilar said.

The CPP is left with only 23 guerrilla fronts, only five of which are able to implement party programs and the 18 are "weak and gasping for breath", Aguilar said.

"This gives the military the opportunity to focus its superior capability against the five while the civil government needs only to implement programs that will address the source of peoples’ discontent to render the UGM’s AOM (agitate, organize and mobilize) activities inutile," he said.

Sison, who died last Dec. 16, established the CPP in 1968.

"To keep the organization afloat, the CPP through a digital person known as 'Marco Valbuena' can only come up with press releases and statements to convey the party’s directive and message to its lower organs and armed group, including its threat of tactical offensives," Aguilar said.

If the CPP-NPA is now facing disintegration and is directionless they are still not toothless. This week they engaged the AFP in a firefight in Bohol.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1709981/npa-rebels-military-troops-clash-in-bohol

A gunfight ensued between suspected members of the New People’s Army (NPA) and government troopers in Bohol province in San Isidro town on Wednesday, Dec. 28.

Soldiers clashed with at least 10 “remnants” of NPA’s Bohol Party Committee, Komiteng Rehiyon-Negros, Cebu, Bohol, and Siquijor, according to a report from the 47th “Katapatan” Infantry Battalion (IB).

San Isidro, 32 km from the capital city of Tagbilaran, has at least 9,000 residents.

In a statement, the 47th IB said residents of Sitio Bajong, Barangay Baunos, San Isidro informed soldiers about the presence of communist rebels who were allegedly extorting money from them.

The troops responded, resulting in an encounter at around10 a.m. The firefight lasted for about 10 minutes.

No fatalities were reported.

Recovered in the encounter site were different ammunition, tents, food packs, personal belongings, and subversive documents.

Meanwhile in Negros Occidental they burned sugarcane trucks.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1709974/npa-admits-burning-5-sugarcane-trucks-in-negros-oriental

The New People’s Army (NPA) claimed responsibility for the burning of five sugarcane trucks in Toboso town, Negros Occidental on Monday, December 26.

In a statement on Tuesday, December 27, Cecil Estrella, spokesperson of the Roselyn Jean Pelle Command (RJCP) – Northern Negros Guerilla Front of the NPA, said a unit of the group burned the sugarcane trucks owned by Teotimo Ballesteros on the 54th founding anniversary of the Communist Party of the Philippines last Dec 26.

“The punitive action is the second incident against class enemy Ballesteros. On December 14, the NPA set fire to two cane trucks in Barangay Tabun-ac in the same town,” the statement read.

Ballesteros’ sugar lands, it said, are within the guerrilla zones.

The NPA alleged that the landowner disregarded his farm workers’ repeated calls for wage increases and benefits.

“The only peace talks the revolutionary forces in northern Negros promote is the one that addresses the wage and land issues…the peace talks should be at a national scale that tackles the root cause of armed conflict – genuine land reform to address landlessness, national industrialization to address unsecured jobs, among others,” it said.

The NPA is still very capable of causing havoc. Calling them directionless with no real leadership and at the point of disintegration is great propaganda but does not reflect the reality on the ground.

As for propaganda there was quite a lot of that in the last week of 2022. Most notably the number of reported surrenders. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1191506

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1191482

Ten Communist Party of the Philippines-New People's Army (CPP-NPA) rebels have surrendered and yielded firearms to the military and police in central Negros Island from Dec. 20 to 22, a report from the Philippine Army's 62nd Infantry Battalion (62IB) said.

Capt. Dorcesimo Cuyag Jr., civil-military operations officer of the 62IB based in Isabela town, Negros Occidental province, said the 10 rebels were turned over to the Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (TF-ELCAC) of Guihulngan City during a ceremony Monday.

The CPP is commemorating its 54th founding anniversary today, Dec. 26.

"The timing is a blow to the CPP. They have no reason to celebrate because their people have already surrendered. It is us who should celebrate this victory," Cuyag told the Philippine News Agency.

Timing is certainly everything. Trotting out alleged CPP-NPA surrednerees on the founding anniversary of the CPP is a huge propaganda win. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1709680/55-npa-members-surrender-on-cpps-54th-anniversary

At least 55 members of the New People’s Army (NPA) surrendered as the local communist movement marked the 54th anniversary of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) on Monday, the Philippine National Police (PNP) said Tuesday.

The CPP was founded by Jose Maria Sison who died 10 days earlier while in exiled in the Netherlands.  Military officials believe Sison’s death dealt a huge blow to the communist movement.

In a statement, PNP chief Gen. Rodolfo Azurin Jr. said the 55 NPA members were presented during a simple ceremony at the National Capital Region Police Office (NCRPO) headquarters in Camp Bagong Diwa, Bicutan in Taguig City.

With Azurin during the program was NCRPO chief Maj. Gen. Jonnel Estomo and officials from the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency and Joint Task Force-NCR.

“These series of surrenders of the former communist rebels resulted from the relentless campaign of our police and military forces against terrorism in support of Executive Order No. 70 to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (ELCAC),” Azurin said.

Of course there were anti-CPP rallies on the same day. 100 ex-rebels rallied against the CPP in Aurora. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1191536

At least a hundred former members and supporters of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army (CPP-NPA) in this province have withdrawn their support from the communist terrorist organization and pledged allegiance to the national government.

In a peace rally conducted in front of the municipal government of San Luis on Monday, the former rebels and supporters expressed their collective sentiments against the atrocities, lies and deceptions being committed by the communist terrorist organization.

"Ka Adim", a former vice commanding officer of the NPA in this province, said on Tuesday that their group held the peace rally to demonstrate their strong stand against the terrorist acts of the communist organization.

“We do not want the future and lives of the youth be destroyed and we want to maintain the true path towards peace,” he said in an interview.

Ka Adim is also the overall president of six people’s organizations that joined the peace rally, namely IPs Association, Solo Parents Association, Samahan ng Magsasaka ng Camalatan Nonong Sr., Nagkakaisang Mamamayan sa Dicaluyongan Association, Masaganang Perlas ng Silanganan ng Aurora Province Association and Sambayanan Association.

"Ka Eric", a member of the Nagkakaisang Mamamayan sa Dicaluyongan Association, said his group fully supports the peace and nation-building efforts of the government.

A rally by former rebels was also held in Bukidnon. 

https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1949446/davao/local-news/ex-rebels-hold-peace-rally-on-cpps-anniversary

FORMER rebels conducted a peace rally in line with the 54th Founding Anniversary of the Communist Peoples Party (CPP) on December 26, 2022.

10th Infantry Division (10ID) of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) spokesperson Capt. Mark Anthony Tito in a text message sent to SunStar Davao on December 26, 2022, said this peace rally was headed by former rebels Arian Jane Ramos, also known as Marikit, together with 16 former rebels at Poblacion, Quezon, Bukidnon.

Aside from the peace rally, Tito said they have also intensified security measures in their areas of responsibility.

“Our troops are still on the Geographically Isolated and Disadvantaged Areas (GIDAs) and our recently cleared areas, conducting Focused Military Operations (FMO), CMO (Civil Military Operations), Intelligence Operations, and other lines of operations to prevent any hostile plans of the CTG (Communist Terrorist Group),”.

This rally was almost certainly sponsored by the AFP. It would not be surprising if the really in Aurora was also directed by the AFP. It's good propaganda and serves to encourage the reamaining NPA fighters to surrender. More surrenders could lead to localized peace talks. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1191609

The new chief of the Philippine Army in Negros Occidental has expressed support for localized peace negotiations with members of the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People's Army (CPP-NPA).

Col. Michael Samson, acting commander of the 303rd Infantry Brigade (Ibde), said on Wednesday through local engagements, those willing to leave the armed revolution will have the opportunity to surrender without misgivings after being fed by propaganda that they will be harmed by government forces.

"If we erase their apprehensions, we can hold a dialogue, and eventually make a settlement. We can talk out the local issues that can be addressed by the local government units and government agencies, then it's better," he told the Philippine News Agency (PNA).

"Let's talk about it, but I encourage it to be done locally. The previous national peace talks failed because they blindly follow the teachings or directives of the CPP's Central Committee," he added.

Samson said they will respond with military action to those who insist on fighting the government through terror and violence.

"If they will continue to do that, we will be forced to make their lives miserable. If it's the only way to force them to abandon the armed struggle," he added.

Will 2023 finally see the end of the insurgency? The official tally of remaining NPA fighters stands at 2,112.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2022/12/27/2233464/only-2112-npa-fighters-left-afp

Because of sustained military operations coupled with the whole-of-nation approach of bringing development to far-flung areas and offering benefits to surrenderees, the military believes that the New People’s Army (NPA) now has only 2,112 fighters left.

After 54 years of existence, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said the communist rebel group, considered as a local terrorist organization, has suffered significant strategic losses as it lost a great number of guerrilla units, leaders and members.

The military, releasing figures yesterday, said the NPA has been reduced to 2,112 members with 1,876 firearms, from 89 to 22 guerrilla fronts with 17 already classified as weakened.

The military said NPA leaders neutralized by government forces include Helenita Pardales, secretary of the Eastern Visayas regional party committee; Ericson Acosta, top NPA leader of Komite Rehiyon-Cebu-Bohol, Negros, Siquijor; Rogelio Sapon Gerondio Jr., secretary of sub-regional committee 3 in Agusan del Norte; and Gina Belsa Granada, secretary of defunct guerrilla front in Zamboanga del Norte.

The AFP also claimed that from as high as P4.2 billion in 2017, the NPA was allegedly only able to extort P8.5 million in 2022.

Compare the stats in this article with the first one above. PNA says there are 23 fronts left with 18 weakened while Philstar claims there are 22 fronts with 17 weakened. Can the AFP get its numbers right? 2,112 is a very specific number based on what exactly? Was someone listening to Rush when they came up with these figures? Let's see how those numbers change over the course of 2023.