Insurgency: By End of 2024

The insurgency is ending by the end of the year. Again. The AFP says so.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1904285/afp-targets-to-eliminate-11-remaining-guerilla-fronts-by-end-of-2024

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) aims to eliminate 11 remaining New People’s Army (NPA) weakened guerrilla units in the country by the end of this year, according to its spokesperson, Col. Francel Padilla.

Padilla said on Wednesday that it has always been the national government’s goal since January this year to end the country’s internal insurgency problem and transition to external defense in line with the “Bagong Pilipinas” movement.

“We want to end the internal insurgency problem. We want to transition already and focus on external defense. So the timelines given [by the national government] to our commanders is to finish this within the year,” Padilla disclosed in a press conference hosted by the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-Elcac).

“Until the end of the year, we’ll pursue the elimination of all these weakened guerilla fronts that are left,” she added.

In January this year, the number of weakened guerrilla units declined from 13 to 11, as AFP chief General Romeo Brawner Jr reported.

Although a weakened guerrilla unit can no longer implement programs such as recruitment and generating resources for the armed struggle, NTF-Elcac executive director Usec. Ernesto Torres Jr. earlier explained that AFP troops are still in areas where the presence of armed groups was detected.

Already the AFP wants to declare Negros Island insurgency free to encourage development.. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1218855

The Philippine Army’s 3rd Infantry Division (3ID) is pushing for the declaration of a state of stable internal peace and security (SIPS) in the local government units (LGUs) in Negros after dismantling all the communist guerrilla fronts in the island.

Maj. Gen. Marion Sison, commander of 3ID, said having the SIPS status in a locality would attract investments, generate jobs, and bring more opportunities to its people.

“The conditions have been met in Negros Island and the SIPS can now be formally declared by our concerned local chief executives,” he said in a statement on Wednesday.

Lt. Col. J-Jay Javines, public affairs chief of 3ID, said there was a directive for line battalions to coordinate with the Philippine National Police (PNP) and the LGUs to declare SIPS status in their respective cities and municipalities.

“This will also serve as supporting events to declare SIPS in both provinces of Negros,” he said in an interview.

At the LGU level, the peace and order council recommends the declaration of SIPS for adoption by the city or municipal council.

The mayor, PNP, and the Philippine Army have to pass a joint resolution formally declaring the SIPS in the locality, Javines said.

Six battalions, including the 79th, 62nd, 94th, 15th, 11th, and 47th Infantry Battalions (IB), under the supervision of the 302nd and 303rd Infantry Brigades, are based in Negros Island.

The 94IB dismantled the Central Negros 2 of the Communist Party of the Philippines - New People’s Army (CPP-NPA) late last year, after the dismantling of the South East Front, Northern Negros Front, and Central Negros 1.

The 3ID also recommended the formal declaration of the South West Front as being dismantled.

Javines, however, said the focused military operations against rebel remnants in Negros Island continue to prevent the CPP-NPA from recovering their lost territories and recruiting new members.

It's all about economic development and not about the actual end of the insurgency.  Remember the AFP has said they will never end the insurgency but can reduce them to "a negligible point." 

Año admitted insurgency cannot be totally eliminated, but he believes the issue may be brought down to a negligible point.

“While we may not be able to attain this zero insurgents, but at least reduced to an irrelevant number that will not cause concern for peace and order,” he said.

“They will become isolated and just become bandits, because of lost ideology and non-support from the people,” he projected.

https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2023/09/insurgency-communist-insurgency-to-end.html

There will NEVER be zero insurgents and that comes from the mouth of those who know. Do you get that? The insurgency may "officially" end but according to those who know it will NEVER end. 

Meanwhile in Mindanao the Maute Group is allegedly on the brink of collapse. 

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/897311/maute-group-on-brink-of-collapse-afp/story/

The Dawlah Islamiyah-Maute Group is expected to be dismantled soon after the series of military operations that killed its leader and some members, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said Tuesday.

In a press briefing, AFP spokesperson Colonel Francel Margareth Padilla said 12 Maute members were killed, three surrendered, and three others were arrested in these operations.

"Maute Group is already on a brink of collapse following a series of decisive military and joint law enforcement operations, particularly against the leadership and perpetrators of the Mindanao State University (MSU) improvised explosive device bombing," she said.

Yeah OK. Didn't they say the same thing after the Marawi siege? The thing is they should not make premature announcements of victory. Last week Maute elements involved in the 2023 MSU bombing were killed.  This week the mastermind was eliminated. 

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2024/02/12/2332815/mastermind-behind-marawi-bombing-killed-military-ops

The Armed Forces of the Philippines said that the person behind the fatal bombing of the Mindanao State University last year was one of nine armed rebels recently killed in a military operation.

In a statement on Monday, the AFP said that the Khadafi Mimbesa or “Engineer,” who they believe is the amir or leader of Dawlah Islamiyah - Maute Group, was one of the nine alleged armed Dawlah Islamiyah members killed in a military operation from January 25 to 26. 

Mimbesa is the brains behind the bombing incident in Marawi City last December, the AFP said, citing corroborated information from a “surrendered terrorist.”

 “The efforts of the 103rd Brigade, under the leadership of their Commander, BGen Yegor Rey Barroquillo Jr., resulted in the neutralization of local terrorists and armed members of the Dawlah Islamiyah in Lanao del Sur on January 25 to 26, 2024, who were identified as perpetrators of the fatal bombing at Mindanao State University (MSU) on December 3, 2023,” the AFP said.

The military also recovered nine high-powered firearms, one bandolier, four Baofeng radios and one smartphone. 

AFP Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner Jr. said the incident should prompt other members of the group to surrender.

"Our troops will be relentless in the pursuit of those who will seek to disturb the peace. Take this as an invitation and a call to surrender now and avoid the same fate as your dead comrades," Brawner added.

Last year, the AFP admitted that some form of “failure of intelligence due to failure of capabilities” on the part of the military led to the bombing incident at a gymnasium in MSU, which led to four deaths and 50 others injured.  

Immediately after the incident, the military and the police launched an extensive manhunt for those responsible for the attack.

No amount of killing terrorists will ever make up for the AFP's many intelligence failures. It is only a matter of time before the next bombing, hand wringing, and retaliation by the AFP. 

Caraga is on target to be terror free by the end of 2024. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1905568/marcos-hopes-caraga-region-to-be-cleared-of-terror-groups-by-end-of-2024

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Friday said he hoped for the Caraga region to be cleared of terrorist threats by the end of 2024.

He said this during his visit to the troops of the Army’s 401st Infantry Division, one of several events he attended in Agusan del Sur.

(The progress looks good here. In fact, there is a projection by the planning that maybe by the end of the year, hopefully the target is by the end of the year, we could say that the area is cleared.)

Marcos then congratulated the troops, who had to lead the charge against the enemies.

Moreover, the President also asked the soldiers to support the government’s new approach to tackling internal conflict. Marcos encouraged the soldiers to become peacemakers while continuing to fight groups that threaten peace and democracy.

The 401st Infantry Division is included in the Joint Task Force (JTF) Diamond, which is tasked with covering the Caraga region. Other troops in the taskforce are the 402nd, 403rd, and 901st Infantry Brigades.

The Palace said that the JTF Diamond has been able to neutralize 200 insurgents.

“There is a reported downtrend in the presence of insurgents in the JTF Diamond’s area of operation, from 437 rebels in the first quarter of 2023, decreasing by 28.6 percent to 312 as of February 15, 2024,” said the Presidential Communications Office.

Don't forget, any declaration of an area being insurgent free does not meant there are no insurgents.