Insurgency: Only 9 Rebels Remain Active In Panay

According to the Armed Forces of the Philippines a grand total of 1,349 NPA members and supporters have been neutralized between January 1st and October 8th. That is 569 more than the last estimate of 780 NPA rebels remaining and the year is not even finished. 

https://pna.gov.ph/article/13k-reds-supporters-neutralized-from-jan-to-early-october

A total of 1,349 New People's Army (NPA) members and supporters were neutralized in various government operations from Jan. 1 to Oct. 8, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) announced on Tuesday.

AFP public affairs office chief Col. Xerxes Trinidad, in a press briefing in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City, said 1,222 of these individuals surrendered, 48 were arrested, and 79 were killed in military operations. 

"Neutralized" is a military term that refers to the surrender, capture, or killing of enemy troops or combatants.

During the same period, about 804 firearms were either seized or surrendered, along with 306 anti-personnel mines and 54 NPA encampments, Trinidad said.

In 2025, the military neutralized an estimated 2,018 NPA and its supporters, seized or received through surrender 1,134 firearms and 531 anti-personnel mines, and captured a total of 149 NPA encampments. 

How do they account for this discrepancy? What is the estimated number of NPA rebels and mere supporters that remain fighting for the insurgency? Why don't they break down the number 1,349 into proper categories of rebels and supporters? Without that breakdown that number is useless and tells the public nothing about the true state of the insurgency. Either 2025's estimate was severely understated or the majority of those neutralized are not actual rebels. 

According to the Army only 9 NPA rebels remain on the whole of Panay Island. 

https://www.panaynews.net/only-9-npa-rebels-remain-active-in-panay-army-ex-rebels-surrender-leads-to-discovery-of-hidden-arms-cache-in-iloilo/

The New People’s Army (NPA) in Panay Island has reportedly dwindled to just nine active members amid internal divisions and leadership problems, the Philippine Army disclosed following the surrender of a former rebel who led government troops to a hidden arms cache in Leon, Iloilo.

Lieutenant Colonel Jekyll Julian D. Dulawan, commanding officer of the Philippine Army’s 61st Infantry (Hunter) Battalion (61IB), said information gathered from former rebels suggested that the remaining communist insurgents were struggling to maintain their ranks and organizational leadership.

“They are reportedly experiencing internal divisions and leadership challenges, with an estimated strength of only nine active NPA,” Dulawan said.

The disclosure came as the military reported another breakthrough in its counterinsurgency campaign following the surrender of alias “Dandan,” 47, a former finance and logistics officer of the dismantled Puregold Platoon under the Southern Panay Front of the Komiteng Rehiyon-Panay.

“Dandan” surrendered to the 61IB at Camp Monteclaro in Barangay Igtuba, Miag-ao, Iloilo, around 3 p.m. on October 11.

He turned over a 12-gauge Akkar Charles Daly shotgun with a defaced serial number and three live cartridges.

More significantly, the former rebel disclosed the location of a concealed arms cache in Barangay Bucari, Leon, enabling government troops to recover ammunition magazines and an explosive device the following day, October 12.

The recovered materials included 45 magazines for M16 rifles, a Type C anti-personnel mine or improvised explosive device (IED), and a detonator.

In Northern Samar there are allegedly only 40 NPA rebels remaining. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2324487/army-intensifies-pursuit-against-npa-rebels-in-n-samar

The military has intensified operations against an estimated 40 remaining members of the communist New People’s Army (NPA) in Northern Samar following reports from residents of armed rebels’ presence and alleged gatherings in mountainous communities, particularly in geographically isolated and disadvantaged areas.

The intensified campaign comes amid continuing efforts by government forces to end the communist insurgency in Eastern Visayas, with Northern Samar identified by the military as the region’s last stronghold of the communist movement.

The latest operations followed a series of encounters between government troops and NPA members in Las Navas town earlier this month.

The military reported encounters in Barangay Poponton on Oct. 4 and Barangay Palanas on Oct. 8, before another firefight erupted in the forested portion of Barangay Sag-od at around 5:34 p.m. on Oct. 13.

The exchange of gunfire lasted approximately 10 minutes before the armed group withdrew, according to the military.

On Oct. 14, soldiers continued their pursuit of the rebels, supported by military helicopters, in areas believed to have been used as escape routes by the armed group.

The operations were also prompted by reports from residents that NPA members had allegedly been extorting money from farmers and forcing community members to buy food for the group.

Brig. Gen. Carmelito Pangatungan, commander of the Army’s 803rd Infantry Brigade, based in the provincial capital of Catarman, said the military remained committed to protecting communities and maintaining peace and security in the province.

“Our soldiers will not stop pursuing the remaining armed members of the NPA who continue to disrupt communities and exploit our people. We will not allow fear and violence to prevail again or hinder programs that will bring development to our communities,” Pangatungan said.

He said the military campaign forms part of broader efforts to end the insurgency in Northern Samar, alongside cooperation with local government units to deliver basic services and livelihood opportunities to communities affected by the prolonged conflict.

The military has emphasized that addressing the insurgency requires not only security operations but also sustained government assistance to remote communities, where limited access to basic services and economic opportunities can complicate peace and development efforts.

Pangatungan thanked residents who have cooperated with authorities and urged the remaining NPA members to abandon the armed struggle and return to the fold of the law.

“As long as it is not too late, choose peace, safety and the opportunity to live a decent life with your families. Returning to the fold of the law is a way to reunite with your loved ones and begin a more peaceful future,” he said. 

How can anyone trust those low numbers when the national total of neutralized persons has already surpassed the previous nationwide rebel estimate? The gap between the inflated national neutralization figures and these extremely low residual estimates only underscores how little clarity the public is being given about actual fighting strength versus peripheral supporters.

The NTF-ELCAC claims the implementation of government development programs has contributed significantly to the decline of the insurgency. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2320809/receding-insurgency-due-to-ongoing-govt-devt-programs-ntf-elcac

Ongoing development programs by the government in communities formerly affected by armed conflict are among the reasons why the insurgents are steadily losing influence in the countryside.

This was emphasized by the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-Elcac) in a news release Friday, and reported that around 28,415 villages in 60 provinces nationwide are now under Stable Internal Peace and Security (SIPS) declarations.

“For NTF-Elcac, the 28,415 SIPS barangays across 60 provinces represent a stark measure of how much ground the CPP-NPA-NDF (Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front) armed insurgency has lost,” it said.

The task force said most of the villages, at around 21,614, “are already part of nine entire regions under SIPS, while another 6,801 belong to SIPS provinces in regions moving toward the same goal.”

With the increase in SIPS, the task force said “the challenge now is to ensure that peace, development and democratic governance permanently occupy the ground insurgency has lost.”

NTF-Elcac deputy director for operations Rodrigo Lutao said “expanding the SIPS map cannot be separated from the government’s development offensive in communities previously affected by armed conflict.”

He said that as of Sept. 29, the Barangay Development Program (BDP) has reached 5,638 formerly conflict-affected villages, backed by a P44.90 billion in development investments benefiting an estimated 16.03 million Filipinos.

The investments, he said, “have translated into concrete interventions on the ground: 955 classrooms, 1,587.02 kilometers of farm-to-market roads, 23,681 streetlights, 1,169 water and sanitation systems, 9,264 electrification projects, and 547 health and medical stations.”

This year, the government allocated P8.08 billion for projects in 808 cleared villages, for the construction of roads, schools, water systems, health stations and electrification.

“The SIPS and BDP figures therefore tell two interconnected stories: the shrinking space for armed insurgency and the expanding presence of government and development. As armed influence recedes, the government is seeking to consolidate peace by bringing roads, electricity, potable water, education, health services, livelihoods and economic opportunities into communities previously vulnerable to conflict,” Lutao added.

That is 16 million Filipinos who have been underserved by their own government who are now finally receiving the due benefits of their taxes.  Truly under the NTF-ELCAC's BDP good governance has become a counterinsurgency program.