Two weeks ago when discussing extending martial law once more and the reasons given for such an extension I concluded with the following observation:
What is the solution?
Duterte has already given the solution when in September 2016 he declared the entire nation in a state of lawlessness. That means a heavy military presence and checkpoints without the suspension of habeas corpus. It's martial law lite one could say.
Did everyone forget about that?
https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2018/11/martial-law-extreme-measure.html
Duterte has not forgotten. First with using the state of lawlessness which he declared in 2016 as a reason to place the military in charge of the Bureau of Customs.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/11/21/1870419/600-afp-pcg-personnel-going-customs |
About 600 personnel from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) would be augmenting the Bureau of Customs (BOC) workforce in the next six months in a bid to put a stop to smuggling activities.And now this week by using the declaration to justify sending more troops to hotspots in the Visayas.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/11/24/1871309/more-troops-sent-vs-lawless-violence-palace-says-no-nationwide-martial-law |
President Duterte has ordered the reinforcement of police and military forces to suppress “lawless violence” and acts of terror in the provinces of Samar, Negros Oriental and in the Bicol region – areas where the communist New People’s Army is known to operate.
Contained in Memorandum Order 32 issued by Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea on Thursday, Malacañang stressed that it “views with concern the growing number of sporadic acts of violence that have recently occurred” in those areas, which were reportedly done by lawless elements.
He added that the AFP supports the order and that it is waiting for the official order to move troops to Bicol and the Visayas. In issuing MO 32, Medialdea cited as among the bases the killing of nine farmers in Sagay City, Negros Occidental on Oct. 20 and – in Samar Island – the ambush of soldiers providing relief to victims of a typhoon in Northern Samar; armed attack at the police station in Lapinig, ambush attack against the 63rd Infantry Battalion in Matuguinao and the assault on the former mayor of San Jose de Buan town.
“We have also witnessed acts of lawlessness in the province of Negros Oriental such as, but not limited to, torching of heavy equipment in Manjuyod, strafing of the house of the barangay chairman, attack of police detachments and the killing of a police chief in separate occasions in Guihulngan,” said presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo.
He also noted that Bicol has suffered from a series of instances of lawless violence, including the ambush of the convoy of Food and Drug Administration director-general Nela Charade Puno in Camarines Sur, firefights in Lagonoy and clash in Bato, among others.
Members of the PNP SAF will be joining the AFP in each of these locations.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/11/26/1871791/pnp-deploy-saf-vs-lawless-violence |
The elite Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police (PNP) will be deployed in the regions identified by President Duterte as areas where “lawless violence” is rampant.
PNP chief Director General Oscar Albayalde directed the deployment of one company or about 100 police commandos to each area mentioned under Memorandum Order No. 32.
Albayalde said the PNP commando group would form part of the government security forces deployed in areas of Samar, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental and the Bicol region.
The three Visayas provinces and Bicol are areas heavily infested by communist New People’s Army (NPA) rebels.
The CPP-NPA has been waging its insurgency for 50 years that is estimated to have claimed the lives of over 50,000 people.
The AFP has estimated the NPA’s strength at over 11,000 fighters.What this proves is that the country can be protected without the need for full-fledged martial law. Will these regions now see an economic boom and an increase in tourism? Only time will tell. It may seem kind of strange that Duterte would wait so long to send troops to these areas since the events cited occurred a month ago and the NPA has long maintained a presence in those regions. But in light of what is happening with the government's stance toward the CPP-NPA it is not all that surprising.
Just last week the CPP was welcoming an attempt at renewed peace talks.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1054731/informal-meeting-with-ndfp-leaders-is-a-go-dureza |
“President [Rodrigo] Duterte has tasked me and Secretary Salvador Panelo to meet with them in an informal chat,” Dureza said in a statement.
As quickly as such a meeting materialised it all went up in smoke.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1055118/dutertes-meeting-with-ndfp-leaders-canceled |
Agcaoili explained that the government panel did not mention any threats of arrests, but the problem is the lack of a new perspective for the meeting.
“Wala namang sinabing threat of arrest o anything, kundi kinansela na daw ang set appointment with the President on 23 Nov. At mahirap daw mag-usap kung walang new perspective,” Agcaoili said.
(No one has said anything about threats of arrest, but the appointment with the President on Nov. 23 was canceled because it is hard to talk without a new perspective.)
Whether there were threats of arrest or lack of a new perspective, a new attempt at peace talks is over. What is there to talk about anyway? I have documented in this series the unrealistic and unrealisable demands of the CPP. They want all kinds of legislation passed within 3 months time of signing the CASER agreement which is very unreasonable. And why should the government kowtow to their demands? Sure they gave a huge chunk of Mindanao to the terrorist organisation MILF. In fact the head of MILF was able to waltz into AFP Camp Aguinaldo and make many new friends.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1055170/i-came-i-saw-i-found-friends-i-made-peace |
“Veni, vidi, vici,” Murad declared at a press conference with AFP chief Gen. Carlito Galvez Jr., before adding to the Latin victory statement attributed to Julius Caesar in English, “I came, I saw, I found friends and I made peace.”
Murad recalled that ever since he joined the Bangsamoro’s fight some 40 years ago, he had avoided military camps and had thought only of destroying them.
“I never imagined during those dark days, that I will one day step inside a military camp and be feted with this exceptional honor by what used to be our adversary,” the MILF chair said.
“We have never considered the AFP or any soldier of the republic our enemy. What we have always considered the enemy is oppression and injustice,” he said.
Murad admitted that in the MILF’s struggle for self-determination, the group viewed the AFP as an instrument of injustice, particularly during the administration of dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
"Veni, vidi, vici." I came, I saw, I conquered. A phrase made famous by Julius Ceaser after he won a battle.
Murad is the military leader of the MILF and he is announcing that the AFP has been defeated. Not intangible concepts like oppression and injustice, but the AFP. Of course the AFP has always been the enemy. Why else would Murad want to destroy military camps? The significance of the phrase is undoubtedly lost on the AFP leadership or if it isn't they are not bold enough to protest.
But back to the CPP-NPA. Why should the government kowtow to their demands? It's been a 50 year long revolution. They've come this far they might as well wait for Sison and the other leaders to die which will lead to infighting and invariably weaken and likely destroy the organisation.
And why send troops now to areas where the NPA has attacked? I have speculated that the peace talks were fake all along and that violence by the NPA would be the catalyst for imposing nationwide marital law. It would go something like this:
- Duterte declared his presidency would be a dictatorship.
- To bring about this dictatorship he would need to implement martial law.
- Duterte initiates phoney peace talks doomed to fail and to prove that he "did all he can" as a cover for eventually declaring martial law after a serious terror attack.
- ISIS captures Marawi City and Duterte uses this event to declare martial law all on his own.
- This is just the beginning as Duterte has said he will extend martial law nationwide if he so chooses and the continuing existence of NPA, MNLF, MILF and other terror groups will justify martial law.
https://philippinefails.blogspot.com/2017/06/martial-law-was-always-dutertes-plan.html
It's not always clear what Duterte is up to since he does not have a single policy he sticks with but goes with wherever the moment takes him. Lorenzana however is very adamant that there should be no peace talks with the NDFP.
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1056385/dnd-chief-to-fight-ndfp-bid-to-resume-talks |
In a statement on Thursday, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founding chair Jose Maria Sison’s claim that threats had been made against NDFP negotiators Fidel Agcaoili, Luis Jalandoni and Coni Ledesma by President Duterte’s “armed minions,” which resulted in the cancellation of their trip to the Philippines, was insulting.
“Mr. Sison is trying his damnedest best to have his subalterns meet with the President and yet, at the same time, throws an insulting remark,” Lorenzana said.
“This shows his lack of respect for the President,” he added.
Lorenzana said that Sison insulted not only the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National Police when he called them the President’s armed minions, but also Mr. Duterte.
The defense secretary explained, “Minion is a term of contempt. It means a servile, fawning and an unimportant person who is at the beck and call of a powerful person.”
He has also made it clear that martial law in Mindanao is an imperative. It is essential.
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"The situation currently being dealt with by State security forces goes beyond Marawi City. President Duterte’s imposition of Martial Law aims to put an end to the long running rebellion in various provinces in the south, as evidenced by the incidents that happened in Zamboanga, Davao, Bohol, Lanao, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-tawi and Maguindanao," Lorenzana said in a statement.
While such a reason might be debatable it's a heck of a lot more sound than the reasons everyone else is giving these days.
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| https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/11/22/compostela-governor-bats-for-ml-extension/ |
Compostela Valley Governor Jayvee Tryron Uy is urging the government to extend martial law in Mindanao claiming that his province greatly benefitted from it.
Uy said his province was able to reduce its crime rate, encourage the surrender of many rebels, and create a climate conducive for business and investments.
Under martial law, his province was recognized by the Department of Trade and Industry as the second most competitive province in the Davao Region. Uy said there is a need to sustain their gains and keep peace.
Yeah! Let's keep martial law for all those sweet economic gains. Who cares if such a reason is unconstitutional and correlation does not equal causation. Need it be said that if a country requires the military to be called in to reduce crime and make the area safe or business then that country is a failed state?
So is the movement of troops to NPA hotspots a prelude to or an indiction of a de facto nationwide marital law?
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| https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/24/18/more-troops-may-be-deployed-in-npa-controlled-areas-ahead-of-2019-polls-lorenzana |
"Ito iyong mga kino-kontrol ng mga NPA (New People's Army) para hindi maka-campaign iyong mga kandidato kung hindi magbayad sa kanila," Lorenzana told reporters on the sidelines of a veterans' event in Quezon City.
(These are areas controlled by the NPA to stop candidates from campaigning unless they pay the rebels.)
"Either kontrolin nila iyong mga movement ng mga kandidato or they will campaign in favor of candidates, so hindi na pantay iyong laban," he said.
(The rebels would either control a candidate's movement or campaign in favor of other candidates, so it will be an unfair fight.)
The military is still assessing the situation in other areas but is looking at the possibility that communist rebels might meddle in the conduct of the 2019 midterm elections, the defense chief said.Perhaps a better question would be, "How did it get like this?" How does the NPA control areas to the extent that politicians are forced to pay a revolutionary tax and some politicians even adjure the people to pay the tax?
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| http://davaotoday.com/main/politics/new-peoples-army/npa-taxation-a-reality-just-pay-them-says-duterte/ |
City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte had this advice to agri-business players who might be asked for ‘revolutionary taxes’ by the New People’s Army: just pay them.
The mayor raised this point, along with other concerns on peace and order, in his address during the opening day of the Davao Trade Expo 2013 last Thursday at the SMX Convention Center.
“It’s a fundamental question for business: is it good to do business in the mountains? Do we give in to them?” the mayor asked.
He said as mayor of a city in Mindanao dealing with “revolutionary” and “ideological” groups such as the Communist Party of the Philippines and Moro revolutionary groups, the way to deal with them is to talk to them.
“It’s a matter others want to avoid. But it’s a reality that has to be talked openly, since the NPA is more active now in Region 11, notwithstanding the statements from the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines),” Duterte said.
December last year, Duterte drew flak when his pronouncement during a visit at the Communist Party of the Philippines quoted him as saying that he pays revolutionary tax. A youtube video later circulated accusing him of giving P125 million as annual revolutionary taxes.
As to the NPAs asking taxes he said “I cannot put it to a stop. So factor that in your investments. If you pay to the BIR (Bureau of Internal Revenue), you prepare also for the NPA.” Some participants giggled and smiled on this remark.Why was this man not arrested for treason after uttering those remarks? He literally told people to give money to a violent terrorist organisation bent on overthrowing the government. But five years later he said the exact opposite.
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| https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/01/28/1782150/rody-warns-firms-vs-paying-revolutionary-tax-npa |
“I will be frank with you. If you are caught giving to the NPA I will give you a hell of a time. More particularly on the mining sector, I’ll just cancel your permits,” he said.
Duterte said he will direct Environment Secretary Roy Cimatu to look into the mining firms who are paying the rebels.
“I’ll tell Secretary Cimatu to cancel it. You are funding an organization which is bent on destroying my country, our country,” he said.That is what is called cognitive dissonance. But despite this warning the AFP reports that the NPA collected P1.4 billion just last year from only four regions in Eastern Mindanao!
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| http://www.mindanews.com/top-stories/2018/01/military-businesses-in-eastern-mindanao-lost-p2-48b-to-npa-attacks-extortion/ |
Madrigal told reporters at the sidelines of the Mindanao Business Briefing at Seda Hotel here that the NPA got P1.48 billion from mining and agricultural companies in Eastern Mindanao, covering Regions 11 and 13 and parts of Regions 10 and 12.
He said that with P1.48 billion the NPA could buy 23,333 AK47 rifles or 31.1 million rounds of ammunition.
For the same period, rebel attacks caused P1 billion in damages to businesses the bulk of which was sustained by the box plant of the Lorenzo family-owned Lapanday Foods Corporation in Mandug, Davao City which the NPA burned on 29 April 2017, he said.Apparently it is too hard to stop these payments or trace the money.
He said aside from the small and large-scale mining operators, the New People’s Army also collects from lowly sari-sari (variety store) owners, who pay as low as P2 per day and from big banana plantations in Compostela Valley and Davao del Norte provinces as well as politicians during election time.
Lt. Col. Esteven Ducusin, commander of the 46th Infantry Battalion based in Pantukan, said they found it difficult to follow the trail of the big amount of money that went into the NPA’s hands because of the “intricate mode of payment,” involved.
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/952237/military-says-npa-collects-p460m-yearly-as-revolutionary-taxes
Take note of where Duterte, as mayor, contradicted statements of the AFP that NPA activity was under control and on the wan.
“It’s a matter others want to avoid. But it’s a reality that has to be talked openly, since the NPA is more active now in Region 11, notwithstanding the statements from the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines),” Duterte said.
Region 11 is also on the list of regions where the NPA has collected enormous amounts of revolutionary taxes.
One can speculate all day long about the possibility of nationwide martial law. Will there be? Is this a prelude? Who knows!? I don't think even Duterte knows. What we do know is that the AFP is an inept organisation. They cancelled urban warfare training because they don't use that skill and were subsequently caught with their pants down in Marawi. They have been publicly called conquered by the head of the MILF while he walked around freely inside their camp. They have been fighting a 50 year war with the communists with no end in sight. Or with an end always in sight but never quite within reach.
One can speculate all day long about the possibility of nationwide martial law. Will there be? Is this a prelude? Who knows!? I don't think even Duterte knows. What we do know is that the AFP is an inept organisation. They cancelled urban warfare training because they don't use that skill and were subsequently caught with their pants down in Marawi. They have been publicly called conquered by the head of the MILF while he walked around freely inside their camp. They have been fighting a 50 year war with the communists with no end in sight. Or with an end always in sight but never quite within reach.
2011
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/119555/afp-we-liberated-23-provinces-from-npa |
In a somewhat startling declaration Thursday, the Armed Forces claimed to have “liberated” 23 provinces from the four-decades-old communist insurgency, which it said lost more than 300 guerrillas in 2011.
“The AFP through the IPSP Bayanihan liberated 23 provinces from the CPP-NPA-NDF influence, with their internal security operations turned over to their respective local government units,” the military said.
The provinces are Apayao, Ifugao, Kalinga, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Biliran, Cebu, Bohol, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, South Cotabato, La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Cavite, Marinduque, Romblon, Guimaras, Siquijor and Leyte and Southern Leyte.
AFP public affairs chief Colonel Arnulfo Marcelo Burgos Jr. said the presence of NPA guerrillas in these provinces had become so insignificant that the military had turned over the job of maintaining security in these areas to the local government units.
“These are indicators that there is now unhampered progress in these provinces without major incidents of violence and extortion by the NPA rebels,” he said in a phone interview.
“We can’t say there’s zero presence but we can say that it is no longer significant,” Burgos said.
Only “less than 5,000” NPA rebels remain in the countryside waging their decadeslong revolution, he said.
Not a complete eradication but enough so that the threat is no longer significant. Less than 5,000 NPA rebels. Fast forward seven years and troops are being deployed to some of the areas declared to have been "liberated" from NPA influence while the AFP estimates there are now 11,000 NPA rebels. How did this happen? Because the AFP did not do a thorough job of getting rid of the NPA in those areas and then handed security maintenance over to LGUs as if it wasn't their concern anymore.
2013
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| https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/341689/incoming-afp-chief-aims-to-make-npa-irrelevant |
“That is our goal, for the NPA (New People’s Army) to be irrelevant, for the armed struggle to be irrelevant,” Bautista said when asked if communist insurgents would be weaker or inconsequential at the end of his term.
His term has long since ended and the NPA is still alive and kicking.
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/33523-philippine-military-end-insurgency |
Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen Emmanuel Bautista reminded commanders of their goal to end the insurgency by 2016, saying it's time for the military to focus on external defense and other tasks.
Under the IPSP (Internal Peace and Security Plan) Bayanihan, the AFP aims to “conclude” by 2016 internal security threats from the CPP-NPA-NDF (CNN), Abu Sayyaf Group, rogue MNLF elements, and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighter (BIFF).
"We should have reduced the capabilities of internal security threats," Bautista said. He maintained they are on track in meeting the 2016 deadline.
Even if talks with the NDF are stalled, what the government aims to do is “to make the armed struggle irrelevant" and "for them to abandon the armed struggle," Bautista said.
2016 has come and gone and internal security threats have only increased. How did this happen? Because of the stated goals in the IPSP. Quoting from the IPSP:
Under the Plan, the AFP’s desired end state is that ―capabilities of internal armed threats are reduced to a level that they can no longer threaten the stability of the state and civil authorities can ensure the safety and well-being of the Filipino people.The AFP’s internal peace and security end-state against the communist insurgency is to render their armed component, the New People’s Army (NPA), irrelevant and show the group the futility of their armed struggle—this is intended to convince them to abandon the armed struggle and instead engage in peace negotiations with the government.
http://www.afp.mil.ph/images/pdf/ipsp_bayanihan.pdf
Rather than completely decimate the NPA and other armed groups and capture all rebel fighters the AFP merely wants to reduce the threat to where it is sustainable or non-threatening. That is insanity. It's like having a surgeon remove only 99% of a cancerous tumour instead of the whole thing. The NPA is not giving up. They continue to fight after 50 years. Perhaps a different strategy is needed instead of hoping to prove to them that their cause is irrelevant and futile. Obviously they are not of that mind.
2014
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/54154-new-peoples-army-45th-anniversary |
“After 5 years, they will be irrelevant. Hindi aabutin ng 5 years. (They won’t last another 5 years),” Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief General Emmanuel Bautista told reporters on Friday.In 2014 Bautista moved the goal to make the NPA irrelevant to 2019! He must have seen the writing on the wall and discerned that the insurgency was not going to end by 2016.
2018
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| http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/647262/lorenzana-to-npa-rebels-lay-down-your-arms-your-cause-has-become-irrelevant/story/ |
"Your cause has become irrelevant. Do not be the spoilers of peace, progress and development. If you could not win [in] 49 years, what made you think you could salvage victory in the next 50?" Lorenzana said in a statement.
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| https://www.rappler.com/nation/200559-afp-chief-carlito-galvez-speech-turnover-ceremony |
Together, we shall render the CPP-NPA-NDF irrelevant; for insurgency thrives only where there is discord.Maybe if the AFP's top brass form a circle and hold hands and repeatedly shout the word "irrelevant" at the top of their lungs, just maybe the NPA will finally become irrelevant.
What we see here is the same old song and dance time after time. The AFP has not changed its approach or its rhetoric and now the insurgency has been injected with new vigour so much so that troops are being deployed to areas once declared "liberated" from NPA influence but which are now "heavily infested" with the NPA according to the PNP. With the billions in revolutionary taxes being extorted from businesses and politicians the NPA will not be running out of weapons anytime soon. Truly the NPA is far from "irrelevant."
