Martial Law: Resentment Growing

Two years on from the beginning of the Marawi Siege and the imposition of martial law across Mindanao and what is the result? How have the people of Marawi and Mindanao fared? 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1122748/marawi-2-years-later-tears-still-flowing-resentment-growing

Marawi remains in ruins and experts are warning that the stalled reconstruction efforts are bolstering the appeal of extremist groups in the country’s south. 

The delays have left about 100,000 residents in squalid relocation camps or sharing homes with relatives, feeding simmering anger among the displaced and providing a recruiting tool for extremists. 

“The narratives (to join IS) used to be about the Middle East and the plight of Muslims around the world,” said Mouhammad Sharief, who cofounded a support group for Marawi’s youth. 

“Now it’s closer to our hearts because the narrative is Marawi,” said 32-year-old Sharief, who was himself displaced by the fighting.

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2019/05/23/1920262/shattered-marawi-tool-jihadist-recruitment

Two years after the Philippine city of Marawi was overrun by jihadists it remains in ruins, with experts warning that stalled reconstruction efforts are bolstering the appeal of extremist groups in the volatile region. 

Marawi is symbolically important because it is the Muslim capital of the nation's south, which has been locked in a cycle of poverty and extremism as separatist insurgencies have raged for decades.

"The government needs to be concerned about the threats of ISIS attracting young (locals) because of the ongoing resentment from the failure to rebuild and general anger over the destruction," analyst Sidney Jones told AFP. 

The clearing of debris, the first step before the actual construction, also hit a snag due to legal problems and the government hopes it will finally be finished in November. 

"This will be used as an example again of government discrimination against Muslims and the government neglect for the responsibility of rebuilding Marawi," said Francisco Lara, an adviser with peace group International Alert.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/231328-frustrated-marawi-evacuees-still-cannot-go-home-two-years-since-siege

On Thursday, May 23, it will be two years since the bloody siege that killed more than a thousand civilians and troops. About 75% of Marawi residents have since returned to their homes, but at least 50,000 who lived in the main battleground remain displaced. 

“The rehabilitation has been very slow,” said Drieza Lininding, chairperson of the Bangsamoro Consensus Group.  

Residents have long begged the government to let them return and rebuild their homes themselves. But the military has yet to clear the area from unexploded ordnance, including 500-pound bombers dropped by the FA-50 fighter trainer jets of the Philippine Air Force. 

Many displaced residents were provided temporary shelters, but others still live in tents.

International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) delegation chief Martin Thalmann said displaced residents are now “tired and frustrated” despite “numerous aid efforts that have truly helped those in need over the two years.”  

While the government claims to be doing its best, time is taking its toll on Marawi residents. 

“They want to stand on their own feet again and stop depending on assistance,” Thalmann said.

The people of Marawi have not fared well. Many are still living in tents and are frustrated over the government's inability to rebuild the city. The ruins beckon to would-be jihadis as proof that the government is not to be trusted and that the struggle must continue. Warnings about the destroyed city of Marawi being a tool for ISIS recruitment have long been circulating amongst analysts but they have apparently gone unheeded or else the government would not be taking their sweet time to rebuild.

From excluding Maranos in planning the new city and bringing in the Chinese to do it to the impossibly slow process of cleaning up debris and unexploded ordnance to Duterte calling Marawi a drug den and saying he doesn't think he should spend a lot of money to rebuild it the government has not been inspiring at all. The Duterte administration has been the exact opposite especially with excluding Maranos from any part in planning the rebuilding of the city. However let's not forget the fact that the Maranos admitted to Presidential Peace Adviser Dureza that they knew about the stockpiling of weapons but told no one because they thought as Muslims they would be spared. Now they are crying in anguish and it's really themselves they have to blame.

As for the rest of Mindanao, well the AFP thinks everything is peachy.

http://mindanaotimes.com.ph/2019/05/23/army-hails-martial-law-as-it-enters-3rd-year-today/

Martial Law in Mindanao will enter its third year today and a 10th Infantry Division officer credited the heightened security for the reported dwindling force of the New People’s Army. 

Capt. Jerry Lamosao, the Public Affairs Office chief of the 10th ID, told reporters in yesterday’s AFP-PNP press conference held at Royal Mandaya Hotel, that they recorded no abuses committed by state forces while under martial rule. 

“If there are some who will contest that then please submit your interviews and evidence,” he said, although he acknowledged that “maybe some are just afraid” to report. 

Nevertheless, he said Martial Law was implemented mainly to prevent a repeat of the Marawi siege and to go against terrorist groups in Mindanao. 

However, the military is adopting the same security playbook to address other threats, such as the NPA. 

“With the two years now of the implementation, we have seen that it helped in preventing the terroristic plan of the CPP-NPA-NDF,” he added.

Overlooking the grossly erroneous headline, it has only been 2 not 3 years, we learn that martial law has been effective in weakening the NPA. Of course combatting the NPA is not at all the reason martial law was imposed but who cares? In fact there is nothing in this article about marital law stopping ISIS or any of the various Islamic terror groups. The focus is on defeating the NPA. From that I would surmise martial law will be extended through 2020 and beyond until the NPA as well as the other groups are all defeated.  One wonders why martial law was not imposed until 2017 if it is such a great and appropriate tool in defeating the insurgency. If the current conditions in Mindanao, which are effectively the same as before the siege, render martial law constitutional then why was it not declared beforehand?

Despite the information I posted last week about ISIS remaining a threat, even citing US military reports and reports of foreigners making their way to Mindanao to fight, the AFP continues to downplay the situation. Even more AFP top brass are misrepresenting the threat to the public.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/231374-isis-threat-marawi-now-low-military-keeps-eye-remnants

“The threat posed by Maute-ISIS has gone very low after the death of Abu Dar, the last remaining leader of the group,” said Colonel Romeo Brawner, commander of the Marawi-based 103rd Infantry Brigade of the Philippine Army.  

Brawner said 160 former Maute Group fighters have surrendered with their firearms. 

But the military is keeping its eye on a small band of remnants. There’s less than 30, according to Brawner.  

“Continuous vigilance should be maintained to preempt possible retaliatory attacks by the remnants or supporters of the group,” said Dela Vega.  

Dela Vega said martial law and sustained military operations have allowed the military to “contain” the threats. 

“Likewise with the establishment of the BARMM (Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao), other possible source of threat was greatly reduced as most of the PAG (private armed groups) adheres to the peace process,” Dela Vega said.

Less than 30?  Is that only Maute remnants he is counting? It has to be because the US military has very different figures. Figures which come from AFP sources. Let's take a look at the latest report from Operation Eagle. This will cover the first quarter of 2019 January - March.

Here is an overview of the total report:

https://media.defense.gov/2019/May/22/2002134756/-1/-1/1/LIG_OFS_OVERVIEW.PDF

The full report can be read here. What follows is form the section about ISIS.

USINDOPACOM reported that as of this quarter, ISIS-Core has not recognized an “emir” of the Philippines since Isnilon Hapilon was killed by the AFP in October 2017. Since then, the group has been without a single leader and remained fragmented among approximately five major factions: the ASG, the Maute Group, Ansar al Khalifa, and two factions of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. 

USINDOPACOM estimated ISIS-P’s total numbers at approximately 300 to 550, the same as last quarter. This was roughly consistent with an assessment released by the AFP this quarter that estimated ISIS-P’s strength at 574 members. According to USINDOPACOM, ISIS-P factions continued to operate in their same historic areas of in uence with no significant territory gained or lost this quarter. USINDOPACOM stated that the ASG faction of ISIS-P in the Sulu Archipelago remained the strongest, as evidenced by the cathedral bombing. USINDOPACOM added that clan and family members continued to support ISIS-P factions, regardless of whether or not they genuinely support ISIS ideology. 

USINDOPACOM reported that it had no information by which to assess the success or extent of ISIS-P’s recruitment efforts this quarter, although it believed the group was actively trying to recruit new members. USINDOPACOM stated that one indicator of recruitment success would be larger numbers of ghters engaged in clashes with the PSF, and this quarter’s encounters involved relatively small groups of terrorists. However, the lack of change in the estimates of ISIS-P membership from quarter to quarter suggested that recruitment was at least keeping pace with deaths and surrenders. USINDOPACOM reported no changes in ISIS-P’s capabilities this quarter and did not expect ISIS-P to evolve into a more capable organization in the near future. Additionally, there were no change sreported in ISIS-P’s tactics. The most significant attack of the quarter on the cathedral was consistent with Philippine jihadist activity in the recent past. 

Let's read that bolded section again:

USINDOPACOM estimated ISIS-P’s total numbers at approximately 300 to 550, the same as last quarter. This was roughly consistent with an assessment released by the AFP this quarter that estimated ISIS-P’s strength at 574 members.

Now let's compare that with the statement of Col Brawner.

“The threat posed by Maute-ISIS has gone very low after the death of Abu Dar, the last remaining leader of the group,” said Colonel Romeo Brawner, commander of the Marawi-based 103rd Infantry Brigade of the Philippine Army.  

Brawner said 160 former Maute Group fighters have surrendered with their firearms. 

But the military is keeping its eye on a small band of remnants. There’s less than 30, according to Brawner.  

Why is Col. Brawner wilfully misrepresenting the strength of ISIS in the Philippines? The report from OPE-P cites the AFP as estimating ISIS members at 574. Why would he only focus on Maute and neglect the overall picture and AFP stats? Did he forget that the original emir of ISIS Philippines was Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon? Why would Brawner act as if the other groups do not matter? As the report says there are five major factions of ISIS allied factions.

The report goes on to say that ISIS-P numbers remain static. There is also no single leader or officially recognised emir. USINDOPACOM assess that ISIS-P remains weakened for the foreseeable future and also lacks the type of financing they once had. Foreign fighters are present but they number less than 10. Basically ISIS-P is in a holding pattern trying to regain strength but that does not mean the threat is diminished.

Two years on from the Marwai siege not a lot has changed. The city of Marawi is still in ruins, people are still displaced, ISIS ideology has not broken its hold over segments of the population, and the terrorist threat remains high. The bombing of the cathedral in Jolo as well as the continual skirmishes are evidence enough of the threat. And of course aside from the Islamic threat the NPA is still in business.

What will Mindanao look like in two more years?