Insurgency: Preemptive Strike

It's disingenuous how the AFP always traces their statistics back to the beginning of the current President. When Duterte is finally gone they will reset and begin anew with "so many X have Y" since 2022. It does not give one the whole picture.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1161322

Over 20,000 people linked to the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF) have surrendered and abandoned the local armed struggle through the effective whole-of-nation approach of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC).

During the virtual press briefing of the NTF-ELCAC on Monday, Defense Undersecretary and Task Force Balik Loob (TFBL) chair Reynaldo Mapagu disclosed that since the start of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte’s administration, the government has recorded a total of 20,579 surrenderers, which included 5,262 NPA fighters, 3,414 members of Militia ng Bayan, 7,626 mass supporters, and 2,224 underground mass organization members.

Mapagu said these former rebels have revealed to authorities the locations of 51 NPA arms caches nationwide yielding 245 firearms and 100 improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and anti-personnel mines (APMs).

“The recovery of these arms cache is reflective of the dwindling warm bodies in the NPA which is a result of the efforts of the NTF-ELCAC, the continuous military and police operations and the Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program (E-Clip), the government’s flagship program for the reintegration of former members of the CPP-NPA-NDF,” Mapagu said.

Mapagu added that the government has spent over half a billion pesos in various programs to aid former rebels to live peaceful and productive lives.

He said as of November 28, a total of PHP485,462,013 worth of assistance were given to 6,418 individual former rebels nationwide. Of the total, 6,164 of them received immediate cash assistance; 3,744 were given livelihood assistance; 5,198 for reintegration assistance; and 1,430 received remuneration from surrendering their firearms.

Mapagu said the firearms surrendered by the former rebels were all destroyed to show that “there are no so-called recycling of these firearms” and also to end their role as weapons of violence.

He also said there are 623 former rebels who already joined the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), with 66 of them "are now enlisted in AFP’s regular forces," while the remaining 557 former rebels are now members of Citizen Armed Force Geographical Unit (CAFGU).

That number 20,579 is ridiculously bloated. Only 5,262 of those surrenderers were actual NPA fighters. Once again the AFP's figures are shown to be largely guesswork.  How many NPA fighters were left in, oh, say 2016?

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/01/10/1541377/afp-releases-conflicting-figures-npa-strength

AFP chief Gen. Hernando Iriberri reported last Friday that the number of NPA members stood at 3,926 as of the end of 2015 from 4,443 in 2014. He said a total of 31 insurgents were captured or killed last year. The military also claimed to have dismantled 13 guerrilla fronts and cleared 292 barangays of communist rebels.

At the beginning of 2016 the number of estimated NPA fighters stood at 3,926. And how many are there in 2021?

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1439527/esperon-sees-police-leading-counterinsurgency-if-npa-numbers-fall-by-1500-fighters

There are still currently 4,000 regular NPA members, according to Esperon, who is also vice chair of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-Elcac).

Roughly the same amount as at the beginning of 2016. Yet we are told that since 2016 5,262 actual NPA fighters, not supporters, have surrendered. And that does not include the number of NPA fighters who have been killed. That would mean that since 2016 the NPA gained and lost 5,262 fighters. That would mean the NPA is having no problems recruiting people and that their cause is not seen as lost or worthless. Let's look at it this way:

2016 estimated NPA fighters left:  3,926

2021 estimated NPA fighters left: 4,000

Number of NPA fighters who surrendered since 2016 (not including those killed): 5,262

Where did all these NPA fighters come from? Did the NPA really recruit 5,262 fighters and loose them within the space of five years time? That is incredible and unbelievable. That means 1,000 new recruits each year joined the NPA and and 1,000 more surrendered to the AFP. And we have been told several times during this same period that the NPA is soon to be defeated and is irrelevant! Perhaps the AFP does not know the real strength of the NPA. 

It is best that the AFP does not let their guard down. The NPA is not irrelevant or inutile. They are still out to kill.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1161335

The Philippine Army has condemned the New People’s Army (NPA) for attacking government troops serving under a community support program (CSP) in Las Navas, Northern Samar that injured a soldier.

Col. Perfecto Peñaredondo, commander of the Philippine Army’s 803rd Infantry Brigade, said soldiers were in the area on Monday to help resolve issues being exploited by the terrorist group, as well as to deliver the much-needed basic services.

"The attack will again disrupt the delivery of services for the people in the area," Peñaredondo said in a statement sent to reporters Monday night.

It prompted the troops to return fire, causing the terrorists to scamper to the forested areas, Peñaredondo said.

Ah, yes. The NPA fighters scampered to the forest like little rabbits. Did no one pursue them? Was air support not called? Did the Army really just let them go? 

In Iloilo the scene was different as the AFP launched a pre-emptive strike on an NPA hideout killing 16 fighters.

https://www.panaynews.net/preemptive-strike-govt-troops-overrun-npa-miag-ao-camp-16-killed/

To prevent an alleged plan of New People’s Army (NPA) rebels to attack a military patrol base in the municipality of Miag-ao, the Philippine Army launched a preemptive strike on a rebel encampment in the town’s hinterland sitio of Burak in Barangay Alimodias beginning 6 a.m. yesterday.

Sixteen suspected rebels were killed, according to Major General Benedict Arevalo, commander of the Army’s 3rd Infantry (Spearhead) Division, last night. This was double the eight casualties initially reported.

High-powered firearms were also seized.

The Army launched the attack after being informed by residents that rebels – believed to be members of the NPA Suyak, Sentro de Grabedad (SDG) Platoon, Southern Front (SF)-Panay – were consolidating in Sitio Burak and planning to attack Army patrol bases in line with the anniversary of the Communist Party of the Philippines on Dec. 26.

“We are determined to employ all of our military assets to wipe the communist terrorists out from the communities,” said Arevalo.

The overrun NPA camp had an estimated 70 cadres.

“They were in a meeting para planohan ang kanilang attack sa government forces. I believed it was a general meeting,” said Arevalo.

They ran for their lives when government troops launched the attack, he said.

Arevalo believed more rebels died or were injured.

So, they let 54 NPA fighters get away? Did they not run after them to verify if there were more dead or injured? Was air support called in? It's great that they surprised 16 of them but now there are 54 vengeful NPA fighters out there who will no doubt try to strike in the future. And to think those 16 dead men could have availed of the government's lavish bribery program had they surrendered. 

But wait a second. Apparently 16 NPA fighters did not die in this encounter. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1161703

The death toll in the clash between New People's Army rebels and government soldiers in Barangay Alimodias, Miagao, Iloilo last December 1 has risen to nine as the military on Friday continued to confirm and identify the fatalities.

“Our clearing and pursuit operations still continue as of now. We are still confirming reports of more death and wounded from their group,” Arevalo said in an interview.

He added that possibly the death count would increase to 16 or 17 and a dozen more could be wounded given the number of casualties.

As acknowledged in the report from Panay News initially there were 8 reported casualties. Then the number rose to 16. Now it has been lowered to 9 but it could go back to 16 as the Army continues to confirm casualties. How could they mess up something so simple as the body count for this operation? How are we supposed to trust their other numbers regarding surrenderers? The math never seems to add up.

The AFP knows the NPA remains a threat and has even warned against recruitment strategies currently taking place.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1161420

A Philippine Army official has warned residents in remote communities in Leyte of the New People’s Army’s (NPA) recruitment strategy this pandemic.

Brig. Gen. Zosimo Oliveros, Philippine Army’s 802nd Infantry Brigade commander, said on Wednesday the NPA has been concentrating on organizing groups of farmers, taking advantage of their need for livelihood opportunities during this health crisis.

“People in far-flung areas are being organized and they were promised with assistance for them to cope up with the impacts of Covid-19 pandemic. They are not aware that they are being exploited by the NPA,” Oliveros told reporters.

The official believes that insurgents resort to other tactics as movement restrictions hindered their regular recruitment efforts, organizing and mobilizing activities, as well as raising funds for logistics.

“In the process of organizing people, they attempt to indoctrinate them on government flaws and eventually convince them to go full-time,” Oliveros added.

There are still 40 remaining NPA fighters hiding in the mountains of Leyte Island with no permanent lair, according to Oliveros.

"No permanent lair." Are these orphaned tigers or NPA fighters we're talking about here? Surely they have some place to lay their head. 

Despite all the LGUs who have declared the NPA persona non grata and despite the alleged loss of community support the government still has to warn people to not give them material support.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/813176/gov-t-warns-against-giving-money-material-support-to-cpp-npa-ndf/story/

The Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) has warned the public against providing money and material support to the Communist Party of the Philippine-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front (CPP-NPA-NDF), saying they could be penalized with life imprisonment for doing so.

The AMLC said that recovered CPP-NPA documents, statements of former NPA members, and other reliable sources reveal that communist terrorists raise and collect funds through extortion/taxation, including election fees, such as “permits to campaign/win” from politicians.

“According to a former ranking NPA member, fees collected from political candidates are pro-rated based on the sought position. Other regular and major sources of funds are mining companies, telephone companies, construction firms, and other businesses, including project funds from abroad,” it said.

“These funds amount to billions of pesos, where 60% goes to the CPP Central Committee and 40% remains with the regional units for their terrorist operations,” it added.

Apart from money, communist terrorists also receive firearms, combat boots, uniforms, and technical equipment/gadgets, according to the AMLC.

“Putting an end to the local communist movement entails cutting off their sources of funding and other means of support,” it said.

While some of that money is collected through extorting businesses and politicians it would appear some is freely given. Why else would the government warn the public against giving the NPA material support? 

The new leader of the Dawlah Islamiya was killed this week along with four of his followers.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1523267/terror-group-leader-4-others-killed-in-maguindanao-clash

Military authorities here announced on Friday the death of another ranking leader of the Islamic State-linked group Daulah Islamiyah and four of his followers in a clash with state forces in Maguindanao last Thursday.

Major Gen. Juvymax Uy, commander of the army’s 6th Infantry Division, identified the slain terrorist leader as Asim Karinda alias Abu Azim.

Karinda and his followers clashed with elements of the Army’s 6th Infantry Battalion in Barangay Dabenayan, Mamasapano town, according to Uy.

Uy said that Karinda was the new emir of the Dawulah Islamiyah terrorist organization operating in Maguindanao following the death of Salahudin Hasan last October.

It idid not take long for a new leader of the DI to emerge and the time it took to kill him was even shorter. But there are others in the wings. The son of a sub-leader of the DI was also killed this week.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1161633

A son of a Dawlah Islamiya (DI) terror group sub-leader was killed in an encounter with government forces in Shariff Saydona Mustapha town in this province, the military here said Thursday.

Maj. Gen. Juvymax Uy, the Army’s 6th Infantry Division (6ID) commander and concurrent chief of the military-led Joint Task Force Central (JTFC), identified the slain DI member as Adsam, son of Hassan Indal, a field leader of the terror group in Maguindanao.

Banaag disclosed that the firefight transpired after residents of the village alerted government forces about the presence of armed men extorting food supplies in the village.

Perhaps Hassan Indal will now step up as leader of the Dawlah Islamiya. Either way the AFP is expecting retaliatory attacks for killing the current leader.