Insurgency: Two Years

The military under the Marcos administration has given an official timeline until the defeating of the NPA. It will happen in two years. 

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/04/26/2261720/government-sees-end-cpp-npa-2-years

The government now considers the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and its armed wing, the New People’s Army (NPA), as a dying threat that will finally end in the next two years under the Marcos administration.

With the confirmed death of top communist leaders Benito and Wilma Tiamzon in August and Jose Maria Sison in December as well as the recent arrest of Eric Casilao in Malaysia, the National Security Council (NSC) believes that total victory against the insurgency is at hand.

With the CPP-NPA allegedly now at its weakest, the government is rejecting any idea of reviving the peace talks and is instead pushing for an amnesty law that will give remaining communist fighters and supporters more reasons to lay down their arms and live peaceful lives.

“It is in a dying stage now based on the latest data we have, which showed that of the 89 guerrilla fronts of the CPP-NPA, 67 have been dismantled since 2018. In 2018, four; 2019, 13; 2020, 10; 2021, 21 and 2022, 19,” NSC assistant director general Jonathan Malaya said in an interview with One News’ The Chiefs aired over Cigal TV/TV5 on Monday night.

Malaya said there are currently 22 guerrilla fronts nationwide left, including 18 that have been severely weakened by the intensified operations of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the combined efforts of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC).

“We only have four active guerrilla fronts in the country. Essentially we are in a good place. The military considers that we are at a strategic victory level and hopefully in the next two years, we will have total victory against the CPP-NPA,” Malaya said.

Noting similar claims in previous years that the country’s insurgency problem is soon coming to an end, Malaya said the difference now is the whole-of-government approach or whole-of-nation approach started by the Duterte administration, which President Marcos adopted and continued to implement.

He said during the administration of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the approach was that the CPP-NPA or the communist terrorist group problem is a military or police matter.

“Through the NTF-ELCAC, there is this understanding that it has to be a whole-of-nation approach. It cannot be solved merely by a military solution. You need the support of other government agencies to develop rebel-controlled barangays. Because the problem is, when the military comes in, they clear the barangay and move on to the next without pursuing development in these areas. And because of that, the NPA just keeps coming back,” he said.

“The other problem is, we were not doing anything about recruitment because they continue to recruit in urban areas. And now that we are doing something about it, they are facing less and less, they are recruiting less and less people to the mountains,” he added.

Malaya said the CPP-NPA problem should be handled through a multi-faceted approach, wherein focused military operations have so far resulted in the dismantling of 67 of 89 guerrilla fronts with 3,340 NPA-controlled barangays now cleared and with only 409 remaining under the influence of the rebels.

“This is the first time that we reached that stage – 409 remaining barangays and the estimated armed strength of the NPA is now down to around 2,000 members in 22 guerrilla fronts all over the country… and also the widespread loss of support coming from many parts of the country. Seventy-nine percent of the LGUs have denounced the CPP-NPA,” he said, referring to local government units.

What does this defeat entail? The end of front groups? The end of infiltrators in the government? Don't forget the NICA said there are 300,000 to 400,000 NPA sympathizers who have infiltrated the government. What about them? Will they finally be gone? 

The government is pushing for an amnesty law and the AFP backs this proposal.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1762023/afp-chief-backs-amnesty-for-former-npa-rebels

Armed Forces chief of staff Gen. Andres Centino backs giving amnesty to former members of the New People’s Army, saying other approaches in eradicating the longest-standing communist insurgency in the world should also be explored.

“I have advocated that other approaches of the government in dealing with insurgency should be considered, such as giving amnesty,” Centino said in a statement as he noted that some NPA members are apprehensive about surrendering due to their pending cases in court.

Centino also encouraged Filipinos to accept former rebels he deemed to be “friends rescued.”

“By achieving the goal of really creating an environment of enduring peace, I think that will be the victory of the Filipino people, then we will have progress and development that we, for so long, deserve,” Centino said. “With peace, there is progress.”

Centino made the statement as the Task Force Balik Loob (TFBL) recently reported their accomplishments.

The task force has said that since 2016, a total of 37,413 “former rebels” and “former violent extremists” have returned to the folds of the law.

Of the surrenderees, 10,637 have been presented with immediate livelihood, reintegration benefits, and firearms remuneration through the TFBL’s Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program.

However, the task force was not without controversy, as leftist organizations accused the government of using fake surrenderees in a bid to prop up the program.

Established on March 29, 1969, the NPA has around 2,112 forces with 1,800 weapons in its arsenal, according to military estimates.

Hold the phone!! Since 20156 37,413 rebels have returned to the fold of the law?  Another article says over 10,000 rebels have received livelihood, that is NTF-ELCAC benefits, since 2016. 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1760637/over-10000-ex-rebels-have-received-livelihood-aid-since-2016

Over 10,000 former rebels have received livelihood assistance from the government since 2016 when the amnesty program began, the Department of National Defense said in a statement on Monday.

This was reported during the first quarter meeting of the Task Force Balik-Loob headed by Defense Undersecretary Angelito de Leon.

Of the 37,413 “former rebels” and “former violent extremists,” 10,637 have been presented with immediate, livelihood, reintegration benefits, as well as firearms remuneration through the government’s Enhanced Comprehensive Local Integration Program or (E-clip).

The immediate assistance granted to the former rebels amounted to P147.33 million. And the total amount of livelihood assistance provided by the task force’s partner agencies reached P322.85 million.

This article does not break it down but in 2016 there were about 3,926 rebels left. But I won't go through that again. The thing is the AFP combines supporters and actual NPA fighters into the same group. That drastically inflates the numbers. It is simply not believable that 37,413 rebels have surrendered since 2016. 

The CPP has rejected the AFP's call for amnesty.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1762369/cpp-scoffs-at-afp-chiefs-amnesty-push

The Communist Party of the Philippines Friday firmly rejected the Armed Forces of the Philippines chief’s call for amnesty.

The Marxist–Leninist–Maoist revolutionary organization firmly believes its armed wing’s members will stay true to its cause and unwavering loyalty to the movement.

“The call for amnesty for members of the New People’s Army (NPA) is a sugar-coated bullet,” CPP spokesperson Marco Valbuena said in a statement.

On Thursday, AFP chief Gen. Andres Centino said he supports other approaches to eradicating the longest-standing communist insurgency in the world, such as providing amnesty to the NPA.

But Valbuena said the communist armed movement would reject Centino’s call.

“Centino’s amnesty proposal will be rejected by revolutionaries who are whole-heartedly committed to serving the oppressed and exploited masses,” he said.

“In the face of the Marcos regime’s heightened fascist repression and subservience to foreign economic and geopolitical interests, they are even more determined to arouse, organize and mobilize the people in their numbers to fight for the country’s sovereignty and people’s well-being,” he added.

At least they are committed to their ideology. This flies in the face of assertions that many who joined did not do so because of ideology. 

The AFP claims the insurgency in Eastern Samar is on the verge of collapse. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1200334

The New People’s Army (NPA) in Eastern Visayas region is now on the verge of collapse with the deaths of key leaders and the surrender of combatants and staunch supporters.

Maj. Gen. Camilo Ligayo, commander of the Army’s 8th Infantry Division, said Friday the NPA in the region could not find potential leaders who would direct and make critical decisions for the group.

“We are not sure who leads them since they are disorganized after the death of the Tiamzon couple and Helenita Pardales last year,” Ligayo said in an interview.

On April 21, the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) confirmed the deaths of its leaders, couple Benito and Wilma Tiamzon during a boat explosion in Catbalogan City, Samar province on Aug. 22, 2022.

The Tiamzon couple made critical decisions for the armed struggle. Benito was believed to be the chairman of the Communist Party of the Philippines-National Democratic (CPP-NDF) and its armed wing, the NPA.

On the other hand, Pardales, secretary of the NPA’s Eastern Visayas Regional Party Committee (EVRPC) died during a fierce gun battle on Nov. 23, 2022, at the rebel’s regional headquarters in the mountains of Imelda village in Las Navas town, Northern Samar.

“Their strength is now diminishing and the trend is irreversible following the deaths and surrender of their key leaders and members,” Ligayo added.

Based on estimates, there are still 200 armed NPA members in the entire region, majority of them are in Northern Samar, said the official.

Only two NPA guerilla fronts in Samar Island remain in existence after the dismantling of one front and the weakening of another during the first quarter of the year.

They may be weakening but they remain active. 

The anti-communist task force has reiterated that the CPP-NPA-NDFP are all terrorists.

https://mb.com.ph/2023/4/23/anti-communist-task-force-reiterates-cpp-npa-ndfp-a-terrorist-organization

The government’s anti-communist task force has reiterated that the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), the New People’s Army (NPA), and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) are terrorist organizations.

Gonzales reiterated this after a newspaper (not the Manila Bulletin) labeled slain high-ranking NPA leader Rogelio Posadas as an NDFP consultant.

Posadas was killed in an encounter with soldiers under the 303rd Infantry Brigade (IBde) of the Philippine Army on April 20 in Negros Occidental.

Gonzales slammed the report for describing Posadas as a “revolutionary.”

“It cannot alter the fact that Rogelio Posadas is a CPP-NPA-NDFP leader responsible for several atrocities against the people of Negros Island,” said Gonzales.

“It is about time that mainstream media must learn to stick to the facts rather than to water down the facts by playing with words for the purpose of painting a totally different picture of the reality,” added Gonzales.

The news report being condemned appears to be from Philstar. 

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2023/04/22/2260863/ndfp-consultant-rogelio-posadas-killed-military-after-alleged-encounter

Another top communist leader was gunned down by the military after an alleged gunfight in Negros Occidental, according to the 303rd Infantry Brigade of the Philippine Army.

In a statement released on Saturday, the Army claimed that they had killed Posadas, also known as "Putin", after a series of encounters in the boundaries of Isabela and Balbagan on April 20.

The 303 IB claimed that Posadas is the "top leader" of the New People's Army's Komiteng Rehiyon- Negros, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor (KR-NCBS), who was responsible for "assassinations, extortions, kidnappings, arsons and other forms of violence against innocent civilians and government personalities."

The military said the revolutionary was identified through the help of informants and former rebels who earlier surrendered to the 94IB. His remains are reported to be at Soledad Funeral Homes, Binalbagan, Negros Occidental.

"The death of the Communist NPA terrorists top regional leader Rogelio Posadas is a result of the local resident’s vigilance and their full trusts to the government," said 303rd Brigade Commander Brig. Gen. Orlando Edralin in a statement.

"The encounter also manifests the continuing loss of support of the NPA terrorists in the communities. This is another victory for all the countless victims of the KR-NCBS in Negros island in particular and in the region in general."

However, as you can see, the article includes the AFP's statement about Posada being a terrorist. Labelling Posada a revolutionary and an NDFP consultant is not inaccurate since he was both of those things. The media did stick to the facts contrary to the anti-terrorism council's statement.