Insurgency: Greatly Weakened State

Let's go back to April 2023 and take a look at some atrocious and blatantly false propaganda made against the NPA. In April the NPA held a silent 21 gun salute to honor the Tiamzons.

https://www.redspark.nu/en/peoples-war/21-gun-salute-by-npa-to-be-held-for-slain-leaders-of-cpp-benito-tiamzon-and-wilma-austria/

On the break of dawn of April 24, 2023, on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP), all units of the New People’s Army (NPA) are directed to stand in formation and silently perform a 21-gun salute, by way of paying respects and giving the highest tribute to Comrade Benito Tiamzon (Ka Laan), Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Central Committee, and Comrade Wilma Austria-Tiamzon (Ka Bagong-tao), General Secretary of the Party.

We are not told why the NPA performed a silent 21-gun salute but that did not stop The Economist from speculating. 

https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/05/04/the-philippiness-once-proud-maoist-insurgents-are-out-of-ammo

LAST MONTH the guerrilla leaders of the New People’s Army (NPA) ordered its units all over the Philippines to give a 21-gun salute to two fallen heroes. Yet this martial display was diminished by an instruction to give the salute silently, either because the army is out of bullets or for fear a fusillade would alert the police. The few hundred fighters who duly lined up (and presumably whispered “bang”) are all that remains of a once-formidable Maoist insurgency. 

The headline says the NPA is out of ammo but the article only speculated that they are out of bullets. The fact is The Economist does not know the NPA is out of ammo. But this article did not go unnoticed in the Philippine press. 

https://www.panaynews.net/ahay-no-more-bullets-for-the-npa/

FROM the way things are happening lately, it does appear that the New People’s Army (NPA), the armed department of that unholy triumvirate CPP/NPA/NDF, is having a severe shortage or at best no more bullets.

Excerpts from a May 3, 2023 article from The Economist on the CPP/NPA/NDF are amusing to say the least as it revealed the ridiculous situation of the insurgency.

“Last month the guerrilla leaders of the New People’s Army (NPA) ordered its units all over the Philippines to give a 21-gun salute to two fallen heroes (Tiamzon couple). Yet this martial display was diminished by an instruction to give the salute silently, either because the army is out of bullets or for fear a fusillade would alert the police.”

I suppose the few hungry, probably sick and exhausted fighters who duly lined up just whispered “bang” or probably farted simultaneously.

And with that Filipinos have been lied to about the status of the NPA that they are "out of ammo." Obviously the NPA is not out of ammo. Recently a solider was wounded during a confrontation with the NPA.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1846914/soldier-hurt-alleged-rebel-captured-in-batangas-quezon

An Army soldier was wounded and an alleged New People’s Army (NPA) rebel captured in separate encounters on Monday in Batangas and Quezon provinces.

In a report released Tuesday, Oct. 17, the Region 4A police said Private Artemio Avila Jr., from the Army’s 59th Infantry Battalion, was wounded during a clash around 9:45 a.m. with NPA rebels in Barangay Bignay in Lobo, Batangas.

The soldiers were conducting a hot pursuit operation against a group of NPA rebels that they encountered in Lobo the previous day.

In Infanta town in Quezon province, soldiers from the Army’s 1st Infantry Battalion captured an NPA rebel identified as alias “Rico” after an encounter at 9:55 a.m. in Barangay Magsaysay.

The battle lasted for five minutes, after which, the rebels escaped in different directions.

The soldiers recovered an M16 rifle, a .45-caliber pistol, and a handheld radio at the encounter site.

Ammo and bomb parts were discovered in a cave this week. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1212085

Police operatives have seized a cache of ammunition and bomb components at a temporary harbor site of Communist New People’s Army (NPA) rebels in Mabinay, Negros Oriental.

They discovered the items in a cave at Sitio Cansanaan in Barangay Abis on Tuesday, Lt. Stephen Polinar, spokesperson and deputy chief of the Police Community Affairs and Development Unit (PCADU) of the Negros Oriental Police Provincial Office (NOPPO) on Wednesday said.

The 704th Provincial Mobile Force Company received a report of the presence of unidentified armed men believed to be NPA members and immediately conducted an operation in the vicinity of Barangays Bato, Abis and Samac, Polinar said.

They found the cave reportedly been used by suspected NPA members.

A subsequent search yielded one red chest bag containing assorted medicines; a container with suspected ANFO (ammonium nitrate and fuel oil) of approximately four liters; an orange backpack containing two pieces of electric blasting cap; two pieces of 9-volts battery; two rolls of firing wire 10-20 meters each; and several rounds of live ammunition of various caliber for short and long firearms; two magazines; a pair of rainboots; and assorted “subversive” documents.

It is quite obvious that the NPA has not run out of ammo. 

In another piece of propaganda the AFP says the NPA is in a greatly weakened state.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1212183

The New People's Army (NPA) and its allies have been greatly weakened after suffering heavy losses from January to August this year, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. said Thursday.

In a forum organized by the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines (FOCAP), Brawner said the AFP has neutralized 2,658 NPA members and their supporters from Jan. 1 to Aug. 17 this year.

Of this number, 124 were killed during encounters with military forces, while 87 were arrested and 2,447 surrendered to the government, he said.

"As far as the communist terrorist group is concerned, we are again happy to report that we have already neutralized most of the guerrilla fronts operating in the country. We have weakened a lot of them and there are now just a few armed elements operating in the country," Brawner said.

With these constant losses, he said, they are seeing a "downward trend of the number of communist coddlers" caused by the neutralization of many of their ranking leaders.

"We are very happy because since last year, with the neutralization of their top, their key leaders, we have seen a widespread surrender of fighters, and also with the death of (Communist Party of the Philippines founder Jose Maria) 'Joma' Sison, now we see that they (are) losing the ideology," Brawner said.

“And with this decline, many of the surviving NPAs could be just classified as bandits as they are engaged in extortion rackets.”

He noted the possibility of the AFP “neutralizing” the NPA by the end of the year.

"(And) when we say neutralize, it doesn’t mean that we are going for total annihilation – it's impossible to do that. But what we are trying to say is that by the end of the year, most of these horizontal and vertical formations – horizontal, these are the guerilla fronts; vertical formations are the small armed units that would go around to wreak havoc in the communities – we are hoping that they will be inconsequential, (and) not be able to launch any terroristic activities anymore," Brawner said.

So, 2,658 NPA members and supporters have been neutralized between January and August yet allegedly there are only about 2,000 NPA left. Once again the AFP is inflating the numbers by including supporters along with actual NPA fighters. 

But more importantly take note that we are now being told that neutralizing the NPA by the end of the year does not mean total annihilation and that such a goal is impossible. That is basically an admission of defeat. Is the Philippines really going to have to live with the NPA forever? 

Despite being "in a greatly weakened state" the Army is still warning about recruitment. 

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1212119

The Philippine Army based in Misamis Oriental urged the youth to reject any attempts of recruitment to become communist rebels under the New People’s Army (NPA), especially with the start of the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Election BSKE) campaign period.

Lt. Col. Christian Uy, Army’s 58th Infantry Battalion (IB) commander, said youth empowerment and education in countering extremist ideologies are two important aspects that can dissuade the youth from joining the rebel group.

"Ultimately, this will promote peace and security in the country and safeguard the youth as a contributor to nation-building," Uy said in a statement Thursday.

By equipping the student sector with knowledge and awareness, Uy said the Philippine Army can help young people make informed decisions and avoid being recruited by the NPA.

Well, if the goal is not total annihilation I suppose we can except recruitment to continue in a never ending cycle of the AFP doing nothing to actually end the insurgency finally.